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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
So it begins...
Musk's Neuralink Ditches Delaware, Reincorporates in Nevada | bnnbloomberg.ca (15 hrs ago)
Musk’s Neuralink Ditches Delaware, Reincorporates in Nevada - BNN Bloomberg
Elon Musk’s brain implant company, Neuralink Corp., switched the location of its business incorporation to Nevada from Delaware, taking steps to cut ties to a state where Musk has suffered significant legal setbacks — one over pay and another over his acquisition of Twitter.www.bnnbloomberg.ca
Cheers to the West!
Market Segmentation: The Rise of Nevada as a Liability-Free Jurisdiction
This Article exposes and analyzes the rise of Nevada as an almost liability-free jurisdiction. Without much public attention, Nevada has embarked on a strategy
papers.ssrn.com
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
How many current heat pump manufacturers offer a single sourced set of integrated products to provide energy production and storage, energy arbitrage, BEV charging, HVAC operation, water heating, and more?
I seriously doubt any existing heat pump provider will be offering something like this anytime soon. The scale of their R&D to develop an integrated set of products would take years to develop.
Tesla already has the engineering completed, and examples are in production that provide these services currently in their existing auto and energy products. All that need happen is rolling them into a turn-key product.
Builders would adopt this technology as an easy way to provide a single source supplier offering all of these products/services, integrated together for maximum efficiency and likely reduced cost. How attractive will such an integrated package of customizable products be for new construction projects, and as a retrofit into existing locations? This has applications found spanning from residential to commercial to industrial scale projects.
Fortunately, just because a lot of people are unable to envision such applications and deployment within an industry it doesn't mean that nobody can. Tesla has a significant number of the "can envision" folks concentrated into a single company that has already solved for these.
All that needs be done is combine this existing technology together into a scalable, easy to manufacture product that can be quickly and economically integrated into construction and renovation projects.
Oh, and the current heat-pump manufacturers probably aren't working toward a mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. Whatever their stated mission might be, it is unlikely to be a motivating factor for their employees to crank out a disruptive system the way that Tesla has a long history of doing.
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GDP larger than Italy is a low bar!
This year's discussion feels, so far, like we are adrift...or worried that Tesla is.
I am reminded of the mytho-historic journey of William the Conqueror from the mainland to England in 1066. First, adverse winds kept his painstakingly gathered fleet in port for weeks, even confounding his first attempts to cross. Might we draw an analogy to Production Hell? Struggle and stress, just to get 'off the ground' as it were, with miles and stress still ahead.
But William got past this, as did Tesla. The winds turned favorable for the fleet, and for the S3XY fleet as well. Tesla launched its ICE-invasion force to sea.
This is where we find ourselves now, leaving the familiar shores made safe by the massive growth of S3XY, now travelling (or are we adrift?) on the straits of 2024, hoping to make landfall on the promised shores of Gen3, BESS, and more.
It is written in history-myth that on the first night on the open sea, William's boat got ahead of his invasion fleet so far that, when the sun rose, no sails (nor land) were visible. Had he lost his fleet? Was he doomed to drift?
Is this where WE are now?
It is also said that rather than panic, the erstwhile Conqueror called confidently for a hearty breakfast, showed no sign of fear, and even celebrated the fine morning with some spiced wine.
What are we doing in our moment of uncertainty, with safe shores receding and new ones not yet fully resolved? I have seen a boat or two here head back to safety. I have heard grumbling from the crew, men-at-arms, and even some loud unwelcome visiting seagulls (but the Ship's Cat has remained remarkably sanguine.)
With minutes or a very few hours, William's fleet hove into view, and landfall soon followed, with strategic choices, decisive battles, and a changed world.
I, for one, had a fine breakfast today. I hope many of my fellow renewable energy warriors do as well. Shore is just beyond the near horizon.
I am reminded of the mytho-historic journey of William the Conqueror from the mainland to England in 1066. First, adverse winds kept his painstakingly gathered fleet in port for weeks, even confounding his first attempts to cross. Might we draw an analogy to Production Hell? Struggle and stress, just to get 'off the ground' as it were, with miles and stress still ahead.
But William got past this, as did Tesla. The winds turned favorable for the fleet, and for the S3XY fleet as well. Tesla launched its ICE-invasion force to sea.
This is where we find ourselves now, leaving the familiar shores made safe by the massive growth of S3XY, now travelling (or are we adrift?) on the straits of 2024, hoping to make landfall on the promised shores of Gen3, BESS, and more.
It is written in history-myth that on the first night on the open sea, William's boat got ahead of his invasion fleet so far that, when the sun rose, no sails (nor land) were visible. Had he lost his fleet? Was he doomed to drift?
Is this where WE are now?
It is also said that rather than panic, the erstwhile Conqueror called confidently for a hearty breakfast, showed no sign of fear, and even celebrated the fine morning with some spiced wine.
What are we doing in our moment of uncertainty, with safe shores receding and new ones not yet fully resolved? I have seen a boat or two here head back to safety. I have heard grumbling from the crew, men-at-arms, and even some loud unwelcome visiting seagulls (but the Ship's Cat has remained remarkably sanguine.)
With minutes or a very few hours, William's fleet hove into view, and landfall soon followed, with strategic choices, decisive battles, and a changed world.
I, for one, had a fine breakfast today. I hope many of my fellow renewable energy warriors do as well. Shore is just beyond the near horizon.
Clearly the English part is concerning you. So who needs words? Lots of options here. Emotional ads work.
- Model Y drives off a cliff, rolls 10 time (end over end), family gets out safe with the baby smiling, fist in the air! (Show $ cost of safety.)
- While in the rain, car slows then automatically stops for a
Not saying they will do a Superbowl ad, but there are plenty of great themes to get a bunch of drunk people talking. Most can't even hear the ads over the crowd noise anyway.
Worth reading as parts of this ring true for many on this forum:
apple.news
Tesla Was Once About Climate Change, Driverless Cars, AI. Now What? — The Wall Street Journal
Elon Musk’s changing personal priorities raise questions about where the automaker is heading
apple.news
Why do people keep repeating this? Tesla is mature enough and has plenty of talented executives to take over in that scenario. Elon has even been wrong on major issues and corrected by his executive team; e.g. the executive team convincing Elon not to put all the eggs into the Robotaxi but to simultaneously develop the Model 2.
I think we'll cross the ATH on 10-23-25, which should be one day after the 2025 Q3 ER.
That's it? Toni, is that you?
Wait...it's $410 after another 3:1 split right? please be specific, numbers matter!Note I said "could", not "would". I don't believe Tesla would collapse if Elon died tomorrow, BUT I do think the stock would drop quite low for a bit until we got a few quarters under the belt without Elon.
Honestly I've thought about this a lot. My true feeling is if Elon died tomorrow we'd see a martyr effect where Tesla and SpaceX would be out to prove a point, where they'd go into overdrive mode just to bring Elon's visions into reality simply to honor him. That might sound a tad worshippy, but I do think we'd see something like that play out in his companies in that case.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Ummm, not worth reading. It's written by Tim Higgins who has always been on a mission to smear Tesla and Elon, no matter what events are taking placeWorth reading as parts of this ring true for many on this forum:
Tesla Was Once About Climate Change, Driverless Cars, AI. Now What? — The Wall Street Journal
Elon Musk’s changing personal priorities raise questions about where the automaker is heading
MartinAustin
Active Member
(It's the weekend)
If you want a glimpse into the long tail future of the Cybertruck, check out this video where they turn the truck into a mobile coffee shop for farmer's markets. The mind boggles when you try to envision the myriad potential applications for this vehicle.
If you want a glimpse into the long tail future of the Cybertruck, check out this video where they turn the truck into a mobile coffee shop for farmer's markets. The mind boggles when you try to envision the myriad potential applications for this vehicle.
For those of you predicting a major turnaround this year on the stock, what are you banking on to justify this? Typically I am a positive investor/person, but here are the headwinds I see.
1. With no guidance we are going to live in a quarter to quarter guessing game - what is the incentive for retail and major institutional buyers to buy the stock? Lets say they guidance would have been 2-2.1M cars at current prices, why bother buying the stock at this point?
2. If we assume no more than 300K in incremental growth in deliveries, is the hope that Tesla's demand has bottomed and that they will raise prices in 2024 to increase margin?
3. If Tesla choses not to advertise in a traditional manner, where will the incremental buyers come from? As an example my area in KC still has 5K+ of incentives on Model Y with plenty in stock.
At this point wouldn't it be better to wait until shipment of low cost car to further invest?
I was certain (2-3 years ago) that by now FSD would be driver supervise with no nag, but we still seem stuck here. It's a crazy hard problem, but I am now limiting my expectation to the end of the decade for FSD as a business to matter.
For the first time in 7 years I have mixed feelings with Tesla...on one hand it has the potential to be the most impactful company ever, on the other hand reality is setting in that we are in the lull hard problems to solve. Tesla is fairly valued for its current business, if not overvalued. The potential is there, but if I were managing other peoples money I would chase other things in the market until there is more clarity. I have no doubt Tesla as a company is as committed and focused as ever, but the "lull" will overhang till management gives us something concrete to plan on.
I have to say this, but Tesla is still in the top of world class businesses, but it's also valued like that even at a depressed share price for the potential. I hope Tesla uses this time for buybacks if they really feel they are being unfairly discounted.
1. With no guidance we are going to live in a quarter to quarter guessing game - what is the incentive for retail and major institutional buyers to buy the stock? Lets say they guidance would have been 2-2.1M cars at current prices, why bother buying the stock at this point?
2. If we assume no more than 300K in incremental growth in deliveries, is the hope that Tesla's demand has bottomed and that they will raise prices in 2024 to increase margin?
3. If Tesla choses not to advertise in a traditional manner, where will the incremental buyers come from? As an example my area in KC still has 5K+ of incentives on Model Y with plenty in stock.
At this point wouldn't it be better to wait until shipment of low cost car to further invest?
I was certain (2-3 years ago) that by now FSD would be driver supervise with no nag, but we still seem stuck here. It's a crazy hard problem, but I am now limiting my expectation to the end of the decade for FSD as a business to matter.
For the first time in 7 years I have mixed feelings with Tesla...on one hand it has the potential to be the most impactful company ever, on the other hand reality is setting in that we are in the lull hard problems to solve. Tesla is fairly valued for its current business, if not overvalued. The potential is there, but if I were managing other peoples money I would chase other things in the market until there is more clarity. I have no doubt Tesla as a company is as committed and focused as ever, but the "lull" will overhang till management gives us something concrete to plan on.
I have to say this, but Tesla is still in the top of world class businesses, but it's also valued like that even at a depressed share price for the potential. I hope Tesla uses this time for buybacks if they really feel they are being unfairly discounted.
Breaching the previous ATH will probably require visibility on earnings reaching those 2021-2022 highs again, the stock has come down because the market priced in earnings coming down and earnings are still the foundation upon which valuations are built.
The stock went up because the pandemic pricing craziness had the market pricing in earnings going way up, and they did
The stock went up because the pandemic pricing craziness had the market pricing in earnings going way up, and they did
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
So a few thoughts-
I do think energy growth will help the bottom line somewhat this year to offset the unusually low growth rate in cars we'll likely see. How much is somewhat TBD as even Tesla mentions energy revenues are lumpy QoQ...
I think as Supercharger adapters go out to Ford and then other EV brands it'll help services and other pads the books a touch- but given how (relatively) few EVs of this sort are out there I put this in kind of the "not nothing but not jaw dropping".
Beyond that I largely agree it'll be a flatish year- but there's really 2 different types of investors here (leaving out the short term/options stuff)
The folks who follow the Warren Buffett philosophy--- find a very few great companies, own them forever.
These folks don't care if huge gains aren't coming this year, they're confident they're coming, so they're not going to try and guess exactly when it starts and instead going to continue to own forever- even if there might be financially better places to move that $ right now
OTOH we have-
The folks who are looking for significant annual portfolio growth (but not necessarily things like daily or weekly trading via options and such)- there might, indeed, be better places to put funds this year than TSLA for those people. They might rotate back to Tesla, and they might do so in time to catch whatever the next huge leg up is... or they might not.
Statistically the second group performs worse than the first group... (See Warrens famous bet with hedge fund managers) but certainly there's individuals who sometimes get lucky about when to get in/out of major investments.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Tesla had announced they are working on the next generation vehicle. At a lower price point; and shared base with the robotaxi; this vehicle has the opportunity to bring in more revenue than all of Tesla's other products combined.
If you wait until shipment of that vehicle; the share price you pay will reflect that.
IMhumbleO; the amount of Osbourning this vehicle can have is understated in this forum. Official guidance on the next vehicle likely reflects that fact.
Exactly. I don’t expect much in 2024 but the outlook for TSLA over the next 5 years is as good as ever. my cost basis is around $210 so I’m not going to lock in a loss when I still believe in the company.
Plus, Cathie Wood bought back in recently, and I like the way she invests. 5-10 year time frame, focused on disruption.
Plus, Cathie Wood bought back in recently, and I like the way she invests. 5-10 year time frame, focused on disruption.
No doubt on this, but I just don't see WS giving them any credit for this till they know the margins and demand. We have no idea what said car will look like and if people will want to buy a 25K sedan/small car. I believe the design for this car was positioned as the Robotaxi car, and as Fraz has said it's not being sold for looks.
The market is currently giving the Cybertruck hardly any consideration in terms of share price. So Its going to be interesting when there is a realization of value on the small car.
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