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You say that but whenever I open this thread on a -5% day half of the posts are whines regarding (short term) SP movement.
On +5% days many of the posts are battle cries for ATH, 2damoon, etc. Very short term minded and not grounded at all.

It's been a while since I saw proper valuation discussions around here, that is why I rarely engage in this thread anymore.

You are one of the few exceptions and that's why I appreciate your posts: eyes on the ball (long term Tesla mission), ignoring the noise. But even you can see many here are not as stoic.

There are stoics aplenty here; we just don't say much.

Happy Tuesday!
 
As it is after hours, and, because precision fermentation came up earlier, I figured this might just slide in as loosely investment related.

From Starbase Brewing, the Official Brewery of Mars...

InvestmentRelated.jpg

A Martian-style Red Ale, perfectly paired with a TSLA red day.
 
Dojo question: anyone knows if Samsung Taylor,TX location will be making the Dojo chips for Tesla? The new LPU chip from Groq will be made there also.

More likely TRIP chips for HW5 in vehicles.
Dojo is still lower volume so may not get a process bump yet. However, by the time the new fab is on-line it could make sense for Dojo (v3?). Still lower volume so location is less of a factor compared to Gen 3 vehicles.
I would expect that Dojo chips are unlikely to shrink much due to large amount of IO pads along the edges of the die, so unless there's a large gain in power efficiency they won't bother to move it to a new node any time soon as the resulting chips wouldn't actually get much smaller (so the cost per chip would go up, since new processes are always more expensive). To maintain cost or get cheaper you need the entire chip, IO pads included, to shrink as a result of the smaller process node to the point where the per-chip cost even on the more expensive smaller process is less than it was on the older process. Sometimes the chip being more expensive is acceptable if for example the gains in power efficiency are worth it (i.e. if they doubled efficiency, but the production cost was twice as much due to the new process, it might still be worth the expense).

This scaling problem with IO is why you see for example AMD Ryzen CPU chiplets being on a smaller / newer node but the IO/memory/cache chip that connects them to the rest of the system is on an older node - it can't shrink enough to be worth the cost due to the number of pads defining a minimum area and it doesn't need to have as complicated or as fast circuits as the CPUs themselves, so it can be more affordably produced on the older process.

I think if anything Tesla has moves to the newer node in the near future, it will be things like TRIP chips or similar as mongo suggested, rather than Dojo.
 

Original article quoted by Sawyer:

"Meanwhile, it is building those stations at sharply lower costs. According to EVAdoption’s data, Tesla has won $17 million to build a total of 41 charging stations. The next-biggest winner of grants, Oklahoma-based Francis Energy, was awarded much more money — $29.5 million — to build fewer stations, or 36."
 
Encountered some delusional cybertruck FUD today, from the usual muppets who seem to exist in a world fuelled entirely by elon-hatred. Today I have read how the cybertruck is too heavy, it rusts, and it has bad range. I have also read derisive nonsense about neuralink. My god it is just so TIRING.
I also laughed hard through seekingalpha 'analysis' on how Ford is the better bet than Tesla for the EV future. Its like a comedy show!

  • To keep focus on whats in the near future:
  • V12 FSD is going out to regular owners right now
  • Cybertrucks are being driven by people like lady gaga. Who needs advertising?
  • New compensation deal for Elon likely coming soon, then the company update talk?
  • Lucid and Rivian will announce catastrophically awful financial results tomorrow.
  • There are rumours about FSD China coming soon.
  • Tesla are hiring more ADAS staff for the UK, maybe FSD here soon?
 
I would expect that Dojo chips are unlikely to shrink much due to large amount of IO pads along the edges of the die, so unless there's a large gain in power efficiency they won't bother to move it to a new node any time soon as the resulting chips wouldn't actually get much smaller (so the cost per chip would go up, since new processes are always more expensive). To maintain cost or get cheaper you need the entire chip, IO pads included, to shrink as a result of the smaller process node to the point where the per-chip cost even on the more expensive smaller process is less than it was on the older process. Sometimes the chip being more expensive is acceptable if for example the gains in power efficiency are worth it (i.e. if they doubled efficiency, but the production cost was twice as much due to the new process, it might still be worth the expense).

This scaling problem with IO is why you see for example AMD Ryzen CPU chiplets being on a smaller / newer node but the IO/memory/cache chip that connects them to the rest of the system is on an older node - it can't shrink enough to be worth the cost due to the number of pads defining a minimum area and it doesn't need to have as complicated or as fast circuits as the CPUs themselves, so it can be more affordably produced on the older process.

I think if anything Tesla has moves to the newer node in the near future, it will be things like TRIP chips or similar as mongo suggested, rather than Dojo.
Or they put more or more capable cores on the die and live with the IO as it is.
Even a lower power (energy) die with the same processing power would be a system level improvement. Could allow additional cabinets.
 
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This is always fun to do, and informative. just for context, Japanese industrials tend to reflect very high debt levels, always. A major part of that is structural rather than high risk as it would be in the US:
The system is called Keiretsu, generically, which reflects interlocking shareholder relationship between ostensibly independent companies. Toyota, by far the largest, recently had holdings in 65 'related' companies:
Toyota has come under repeated scrutiny for every thing from being the dominant vehicle for the Taliban, Islamic State, etc.
That is almost investable since Toyota Land Cruiser is the foment vehicle in most of the world's least developed places. Similarly they have come under fire for Russia manufacturing, (they allegedly quit but somehow they do not really disappear).

The highly complex and opaque nature of Toyota global dealings makes much other debt load not exactly opaque either. They have precedent and deniability for nearly all the criticism, and they never really seem to encounter the constraints found by other, lesser groupings.

In other words, those debt numbers really do not convey much useful information on Toyota. They simply are unlike any other company anywhere. In a real way, that is why Corolla seems so dominant in globals sales, because >20 vehicles use that name. Only some of them are actually related to each other.

if you really want to know more searches will gradually show the colorful findings. From Albania to Zimbabwe, Toyota is there!
Point of clarification, with Taliban etc, as well as more innocent parties in, say, North
Africa : everywhere I have been that if your vehicle breaks down, you die? The vehicle of choice is a Hilux variant. And with good reason, those things just don’t break. Land Cruiser in those places meanwhile is more scarce -- the choice of bosses, strongmen, UN officials etc and often attracts too much attention. Ratio in most places seems to be maybe 30 Hilux to 1 Land Cruiser.

That bet-your-life-on-it quality level is why Toyota remains a formidable competitor for TSLA and will be for decades to come, despite their seemingly bull-headed behavior re: BEV vs ICE vs Hybrid.
Their new (under construction but close) NA battery plant is a shocker, not quite a third of Giga Texas but still freaking huge. They indicate it is flexible enough to make batteries for their hybrids as well as the new 7-seater EV etc and my sense is its going to be nearly entirely hybrid stuff, then gradually switch over as the company gets its head on straight for EV and market support its. I can’t imagine it can be easily converted away from pouch batteries but who knows.
 
Encountered some delusional cybertruck FUD today, from the usual muppets who seem to exist in a world fuelled entirely by elon-hatred. Today I have read how the cybertruck is too heavy, it rusts, and it has bad range. I have also read derisive nonsense about neuralink. My god it is just so TIRING.
I also laughed hard through seekingalpha 'analysis' on how Ford is the better bet than Tesla for the EV future. Its like a comedy show!

  • To keep focus on whats in the near future:
  • V12 FSD is going out to regular owners right now
  • Cybertrucks are being driven by people like lady gaga. Who needs advertising?
  • New compensation deal for Elon likely coming soon, then the company update talk?
  • Lucid and Rivian will announce catastrophically awful financial results tomorrow.
  • There are rumours about FSD China coming soon.
  • Tesla are hiring more ADAS staff for the UK, maybe FSD here soon?
With posts like this, who needs SMR ? :D
 
It's pretty clear that if you are encountering an ever-increasing amount of FUD, you definitely need advertising to get the word out.

Otherwise all you have are the falsehoods which fly about unchallenged.
Won't advertising just amplify any FUD? Most people will think "There must be something to this because they are trying to deny it". Advertising is likely to do more harm than good. Ignoring it is the best thing a company can do. Let others toot the horn (but ensure they have something to toot about).
 
Encountered some delusional cybertruck FUD today, from the usual muppets who seem to exist in a world fuelled entirely by elon-hatred. Today I have read how the cybertruck is too heavy, it rusts, and it has bad range. I have also read derisive nonsense about neuralink. My god it is just so TIRING.
I also laughed hard through seekingalpha 'analysis' on how Ford is the better bet than Tesla for the EV future. Its like a comedy show!

  • To keep focus on whats in the near future:
  • V12 FSD is going out to regular owners right now
  • Cybertrucks are being driven by people like lady gaga. Who needs advertising?
  • New compensation deal for Elon likely coming soon, then the company update talk?
  • Lucid and Rivian will announce catastrophically awful financial results tomorrow.
  • There are rumours about FSD China coming soon.
  • Tesla are hiring more ADAS staff for the UK, maybe FSD here soon?
The China FSD rumors are interesting to me. On the one hand, China is very concerned about non-governmental power/influence (particularly mega corps - they see corporate lobbying as corruption and have worked for years to root it out), and I was wondering how they'd respond to a private entity using cameras on private vehicles - but it looks like Tesla has been careful to follow regulations in China.

On the other hand, China may be one of the most 'safety' conscious countries in the world - at least the appearance of such. In my experience/opinion using it as a euphemism, at times, for strict control and monitoring (at least in the province where my company was working: they're terrified of protests/riots, and are also pushing for strict cultural uniformity... But that's a whole separate issue). Suffice to say, they go to great lengths to mandate safety at the expense of individual freedoms, so FSD doesn't really have the same cultural resistance (giving up control to a car) that many Westerners have.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Communist Party very supportive of FSD once it is 'ready', especially eliminating human drivers, and they may very well throw subsidizations at it or even mandate it in new vehicles. It will be a tricky thing for Tesla to navigate, though - that data (real-time and/or historical) is incredibly 'useful', and I believe China will put pressure on Tesla to allow them access to that data (when dealing with 'terrorists' aka dissidents). It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I think Tesla may be the only company that actually has the potential to both withstand CCP pressure and maintain a positive relationship there...

All that said, a lot of success Tesla has had in China means they must have had excellent negotiators/liaisons who understand Chinese/CCP culture, and it's a tricky line they walk (which so far has worked well for all of us shareholders). The amount of red tape (or in China's case, stamps) is mind blowing...
 
Just in the German news: The residents voted against the expansion of Giga Berlin expansion for logistics area (freight station, logistics, storage, kindergarten; this is not about the factory expansion itself where trees already have been cut). Outcome is not legally binding, but likely to significantly influence the decision. This was actually on the most popular prime time 15min TV news tagesschau.

Poland was and is looking better and better.