Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggies07]

A new interview with JB:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762566847042556347

 

[2daMoon]

But Apple didn't want an EV; they wanted an Autonomous Vehicle (AV). They couldn't get the driving software to work. Here's but a small sample from my 'Greatest Promisses' list:

• Apple Targets Electric-Car Shipping Date for 2019 - WSJ
• Apple is targeting 2024 to begin car production: Report
• Kuo: Apple Car Still in Early Stages, Unlikely to Launch Until 2025-2027 at Earliest

Manufacturing Partners: (or, the "Fantasy League")

• CNBC Now on Twitter: "BREAKING: Apple is close to finalizing a deal with Hyundai-Kia to manufacture an Apple branded autonomous electric vehicle at the Kia assembly plant in West Point, Georgia" / Twitter
• Apple Talks With Hyundai-Kia Paused: Report
• Hyundai, Kia Say Not in Car Development Talks With Apple
• Apple held talks with Nissan on autonomous car that have since ended | Seeking Alpha
• Apple Car production gets potential 2024 target amid talks with Toyota: report

Analyst DeFIBulator: (all porky-pies)

• Loup TV 040: Apple Car 101 (2020-12-23)
• Apple Partnering With Tesla Is Just First Step, Says Ives (2020-12-24)
• Gene Munster on whether Apple is really making an autonomous car (2020-12-25)
• It's going to be Apple vs. Tesla: Gene Munster on EVs (2021-02-21)
• Tesla Stock Will Suffer From Apple Cars , Analyst Gives $150 PT (2021-10-17) <= interview w. Roth Capital Partners analyst and Pink Bunny Craig Irwin
• Apple is going to do a car and it's going to be a gamechanger, says Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas (2022-07-14)

So that's the Short List of the Apple Car Killers:

• Gene Munster
• Dan Ives
• Craig Irwin
• Adam Jonas

Today, we close the Apple car saga with this article from appleinsider.com

Apple Car - Cancelled​

Decade-old Apple Car project may be completely dead

A report on Tuesday claims that Apple's long-running car project also known as "Project Titan" has been killed.

appleinsider.com

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[uscbucsfan]

Sorry, but Apple car is real and the day Apple car announced is the day Tesla goes under.

Apple to Wind Down Electric Car Effort After Decadelong Odyssey

Apple Inc. is canceling a decadelong effort to build an electric car, according to people with knowledge of the matter, abandoning one of the most ambitious projects in the history of the company.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

There is a need to replenish the coffers soon and I'm finding it uncomfortable to think of selling for less that $250/chair.
Pondering upon the future it seems like sacrilege to be picking the fruit before it is ripe.

Don't you worry, plenty of ammo in the long term bank, this is just play swing $

 

[2daMoon]

Don't you worry, plenty of ammo in the long term bank, this is just play swing $

Yeah, I had selected and deleted that first bit, before replying with an Apple Car is Dead response, and the editor conveniently included what I deleted anyway. Go figure.


But, yeah, I ain't skeered, just hate to sell cheap. ha ha

 

[Buckminster]

Apple car

All discussion of Rivian Automotive Could AAPL buy RIVN?

AAPL doubling down on:
Artificial Intelligence

 

[CHGolferJim]

If they want an EV they should just buy Rivian. At it's current valuation Apple could easily pay for it with cash!

Or wait 6-12 months and pick over the bones……….

 

[Singuy]

While not arguing with your persistent criticism of all things Chinese.you might want to directly evaluate some of them in markets where they are sold. In some models they are now regarded as high quality, even with the cheaper ones. Even the often odd styling is becoming more typically western in many cases. We also might want to understand why Elon, for example, regards Chinese OEMs as the most serious Tesla competitors.

BYD sells over 60k seagulls that are priced under 12k a month. This is their 80hp low range tiny car. Their 2nd best seller is the Dolphin, which again is priced under 20k with low range and just a bit faster. Tesla move near same number of cars 3x this of this price per month. BYD only sells a few thousand Seals/month, the actual model 3 competitor. They just have zero pricing power where Tesla is their competitor, and mops the floor with the rest of the industry where Tesla is not competing (25k and under price range).

So regardless how great people think their 80hp car is, they will ditch them in a second if Tesla start selling cars in that segment. The brand is highly regarded in China because the numbers don't lie when it comes to the strength of the brand.

I am happy that BYD is displacing cheap, terrible and most of the time, ICE cars that faked emission tests in China. BYD is also taking near zero margins doing so. Pretty sure they are supported by the government to sell low/negative margin cars in order to fix emission problems in China. I am not negative on BYD at all and glad they exist. Tesla however cannot copy BYD and make zero margin cars as well hence their new unboxing way in order to hit 20% margins at prices under 25k. I think Elon assumes BYD is actually making money on their 12k car hence why he thinks they are better than they are.

 

[Ellec]

Or wait 6-12 months and pick over the bones……….

Not even worth it, it would be a cash furnace. Better to focus on their core products and the headset thing, I think is the decision. Tesla are now in an enviable position of being ahead in all areas in EV's, Automated driving and energy storage (and possibly humanoid robots) and with a huge cash pile, a very talented team headed by Elon it will only widen that gap.

 

[Thekiwi]

Not even worth it, it would be a cash furnace. Better to focus on their core products and the headset thing, I think is the decision. Tesla are now in an enviable position of being ahead in all areas in EV's, Automated driving and energy storage (and possibly humanoid robots) and with a huge cash pile, a very talented team headed by Elon it will only widen that gap.

The under construction factory to produce several hundred thousand mid size SUVs (R2) will be worth something to someone.

 

[AudubonB]

All this talk of buying Rivian seems to be ignoring Amazon, which already owns 158 million shares, or over 16%, of the company.

 

[unk45]

BYD sells over 60k seagulls that are priced under 12k a month. This is their 80hp low range tiny car. Their 2nd best seller is the Dolphin, which again is priced under 20k with low range and just a bit faster. Tesla move near same number of cars 3x this of this price per month. BYD only sells a few thousand Seals/month, the actual model 3 competitor. They just have zero pricing power where Tesla is their competitor, and mops the floor with the rest of the industry where Tesla is not competing (25k and under price range).

So regardless how great people think their 80hp car is, they will ditch them in a second if Tesla start selling cars in that segment. The brand is highly regarded in China because the numbers don't lie when it comes to the strength of the brand.

I am happy that BYD is displacing cheap, terrible and most of the time, ICE cars that faked emission tests in China. BYD is also taking near zero margins doing so. Pretty sure they are supported by the government to sell low/negative margin cars in order to fix emission problems in China. I am not negative on BYD at all and glad they exist. Tesla however cannot copy BYD and make zero margin cars as well hence their new unboxing way in order to hit 20% margins at prices under 25k. I think Elon assumes BYD is actually making money on their 12k car hence why he thinks they are better than they are.

Don’t focus only on China. Look at the rest of the world. Look at how these manufacturers do in other countries and regions. It’s not about displacing the tiny semi-legal junk cars that were so ubiquitous only a few years back.

Anyway, the results are coming in day by day. Tesla dies very well and I’m sure will cont inue to do well. This is nit about competing with Tesla but about displacing ICE. That is just beginning and is not obvious. The. Infrastructure is being built, worldwide mostly by Chinese companies, with outstanding technology. The BEV revolution can only take place if infrastructure is already in place. The entire world should have already have learned that from Tesla.

That is why the likes of National Grid, Canadian Solar, Huawei and CATL have been first, with the bus and truck markers next then the cars. More of less that has been the pattern. Oddly, BYD is now a leader in solar panels, modular energy storage, bus and truck powertrains with their cars coming last in the list, not first.

Strangely to some most of that has not been price-led. Most of that also has benefitted from strong financial terms. All of that has been publicly known. For some reason, most in NA simply cannot see it happening.

Tesla is fully aware, but simply does not have the product ranges or funding to even begin to compete with all that. Tesla already is noted for Beth technology and manufacturing efficiency. Those will certainly help Tesla keep thriving.

For traditional auto OEM oblivious to changes, the world will soon look bleak

Some will continue successfully. Ones such as Hyundai/Kia probably. It remains to see who else. In the meantime, I personally think TSLA is underpriced.

 

[2daMoon]

Will this fit in the back of a Cybertruck?

The Microlino is an adorably tiny electric city car with two versions

Micro Mobility Solutions has unveiled a smaller version of the Microlino, called the Microlino Lite, offering a second version of its...

www.teslarati.com

Might make up for that absence of a spare tire...

 

[gillfoto]

Will this fit in the back of a Cybertruck?

The Microlino is an adorably tiny electric city car with two versions

Micro Mobility Solutions has unveiled a smaller version of the Microlino, called the Microlino Lite, offering a second version of its...

www.teslarati.com

Might make up for that absence of a spare tire...

deja vu EV

 

[cliff harris]

The under construction factory to produce several hundred thousand mid size SUVs (R2) will be worth something to someone.

Maybe... but a lot of these EV companies seem to have an almost religious belief that the NEXT model and the NEXT factory will somehow magically fix the fact that all the models and factories up to that point had mostly manufactured huge financial dumpster fires.
There is not much evidence that Rivian are heading towards profitability with their existing lineup. I don't see them being worth anything to a sensible investor until there is a credible plan for them to break even.

 

[Singuy]

Don’t focus only on China. Look at the rest of the world. Look at how these manufacturers do in other countries and regions. It’s not about displacing the tiny semi-legal junk cars that were so ubiquitous only a few years back.

Anyway, the results are coming in day by day. Tesla dies very well and I’m sure will cont inue to do well. This is nit about competing with Tesla but about displacing ICE. That is just beginning and is not obvious. The. Infrastructure is being built, worldwide mostly by Chinese companies, with outstanding technology. The BEV revolution can only take place if infrastructure is already in place. The entire world should have already have learned that from Tesla.

That is why the likes of National Grid, Canadian Solar, Huawei and CATL have been first, with the bus and truck markers next then the cars. More of less that has been the pattern. Oddly, BYD is now a leader in solar panels, modular energy storage, bus and truck powertrains with their cars coming last in the list, not first.

Strangely to some most of that has not been price-led. Most of that also has benefitted from strong financial terms. All of that has been publicly known. For some reason, most in NA simply cannot see it happening.

Tesla is fully aware, but simply does not have the product ranges or funding to even begin to compete with all that. Tesla already is noted for Beth technology and manufacturing efficiency. Those will certainly help Tesla keep thriving.

For traditional auto OEM oblivious to changes, the world will soon look bleak

Some will continue successfully. Ones such as Hyundai/Kia probably. It remains to see who else. In the meantime, I personally think TSLA is underpriced.

They are a leader in a lot of things, just not in total revenue as Tesla makes 20% more while being behind in everything. They made 470M operating income for 2023 vs 9B. BYD is putting in a lot of hard work for pretty much no returns.

 

[Rarity]

They are a leader in a lot of things, just not in total revenue as Tesla makes 20% more while being behind in everything. They made 470M operating income for 2023 vs 9B. BYD is putting in a lot of hard work for pretty much no returns.

As @unk46 has mentioned in the past, BYD's financial reports are not as straightforward as Tesla's. We need to be careful about making comparisons, especially on the P&L.

I think we can trust Tesla's free cash flow, but there are so many moving parts on this that I think we need to be careful about the conclusions that we draw. I'm not sure that BYD's free cash flow can be trusted at face value. Bottom line, comparisons on the financials are fraught.

 

[mongo]

Tesla app may be getting configured to handle non-Tesla charge port locations
Perhaps in the future, the App/ car UI will act like air traffic control and handle queues and specific charger assignments...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762610113334964664

 

[MC3OZ]

They are a leader in a lot of things, just not in total revenue as Tesla makes 20% more while being behind in everything. They made 470M operating income for 2023 vs 9B. BYD is putting in a lot of hard work for pretty much no returns.

I think BYD are chasing higher volumes on thinner margins and growing ASAP.

Tesla is growing more slowly but with a more deliberate policy of using higher margins to fund the next phase of growth.

Both approaches are needed to quickly displace ICE vehicles.

But IMO the Tesla Gen3 car will be well worth the wait from every perspective, customer, investor, mission.

And the Gen3 car will unlock a rapid phase of efficient growth that will at least match BYD.

But overall BYD are making a good contribution and producing reasonable products that are at least good enough to displace many ICE sales.

And I think when the rapid phase of growth is over, BYD will work on increasing margins.

So:- Gold - Tesla, Silver BYD, Bronze - still somewhere out on the track.

 

[Thekiwi]

Maybe... but a lot of these EV companies seem to have an almost religious belief that the NEXT model and the NEXT factory will somehow magically fix the fact that all the models and factories up to that point had mostly manufactured huge financial dumpster fires.
There is not much evidence that Rivian are heading towards profitability with their existing lineup. I don't see them being worth anything to a sensible investor until there is a credible plan for them to break even.

Not saying I believe them 100%, but Rivian says that after they shutdown and extensively retool the existing line in Q2, they are expecting to reach gross margin positive on the R1 in Q4 this year.

R2 is unveiled next week.