All discussion of Rivian Automotive

[CyberShy]

Rivian has to continue to improve on operating expenses to reduce cash burn, but there’s going to be some CAPEX spent for the R2, and then production ramping, and then and then and then.

Gross margin positive will just means that their trucks are no longer selling at a COGS loss, which means bigger sales doesn’t drain cash. Stop the bleeding.

Don’t expect the stock to do anything but fluctuate like mad for the next 12 months unless there’s some huge announcement that changes the narrative.

 

[buckets0fun]

they made another pair of trim levels for the R1 platform, likely to test a smaller pack/du set for the R2. Moving R2 R&D off to R1 platform?

The R2 needs a left rear or right front charge port, since RAN isn’t going to be as massive as they promised. They’ve missed the dates for X number of CCS units deployed/sites created.

2yrs of missed promises for media while charging. If this was tesla, how many bloggers would have YouTubez crying about it?

 

[Doggydogworld]

What does he think is going to happen to turn their cash drain around so drastically so quickly? And without production growth for this year?

He said reduce, not "turn around" their cash drain. Even if they achieve positive gross margin they'll still burn plenty of cash on opex and capex. Rivian never fully spells out the planned COGS reductions, but here are a few items:

1) Initial high-quantity take or pay supplier contracts roll off. This is a step change they talked about more than a year ago. The biggest $ item, IMHO.
2) Production line improvements during the coming shutdown
3) Engineering design changes (this has been ongoing, but production shutdown is the best time to put many in place)
4) 30% higher production rate after restart

They sold 3b of convertible bonds last year, I expect more of the same this year off the R2 reveal hype next month and margin improvement later in the year.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Video showing Rivian manufacturing. Nothing earth shattering.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762572198143787308

 

[CyberShy]

Apple’s not buying Rivian.

 

[adiggs]

Apple’s not buying Rivian.

Gotta say - that 3 line financial analysis sure looks compelling. That doesn't address the business question of whether they can make it a profitable product, but that is one hell of a jump start for somebody that wants in on that business.

 

[Yelobird]

Gotta say - that 3 line financial analysis sure looks compelling. That doesn't address the business question of whether they can make it a profitable product, but that is one hell of a jump start for somebody that wants in on that business.

Amazon is half way in. Plus they like to diversify business so if anything I would vote Amazon to take over way before Apple ever considers this play.

 

[CyberShy]

While this doesn't disprove that Apple isn't or wouldn't buy Rivian, this article at an Apple-focused news site says their car is offically dead.

Decade-old Apple Car project may be completely dead

A report on Tuesday claims that Apple's long-running car project also known as "Project Titan" has been killed.

appleinsider.com

I also do not think that Amazon is interested in buying Rivian, especially after reducing their orders for the RDVs. But what do I know?

 

[GhostSkater]

The strongest argument for Apple not buying Rivian is that Apple is in the business of making money, on top of not having the expertise of making a automotive production go from losing money to making money

 

[RobStark]

The strongest argument for Apple not buying Rivian is that Apple is in the business of making money, on top of not having the expertise of making a automotive production go from losing money to making money

Apple just pissed away at least $5B plus on Project Titan. Probably closer to $10B.

They piss away a $1B plus on special projects every year.

Apple makes money on iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.

Then they have trouble spending that cash horde on anything useful.

Apple TV? Apple Glasses?

 

[GhostSkater]

Apple just pissed away at least $5B plus on Project Titan. Probably closer to $10B.

They piss away a $1B plus on special projects every year.

Apple makes money on iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.

Then they have trouble spending that cash horde on anything useful.

Apple TV? Apple Glasses?

And they likely learned their lesson there on how hard it is to make money on vehicles

 

[RobStark]

And they likely learned their lesson there on how hard it is to make money on vehicles

They spent billions to not even try.

What they did learn was that legacy OEMs would not build Apple a car for cost plus 2% while Apple makes silly software margins.

 

[Doggydogworld]

What they did learn was that legacy OEMs would not build Apple a car for cost plus 2% while Apple makes silly software margins.

And the solution is to buy a negative margin manufacturer?

IMHO most Project Titan spending was on autonomy. The majority of the team is refocusing on generative AI efforts. And even if you count total spending as 5b, it's one thing to burn that much over a decade, quite another to burn it every 9 months.

 

[CyberShy]

Rivian supposedly burned through $500 million a year for 10 years before bursting on the scene in 2019. They also had a false start with a sports car before they threw it out and went truck.

 

[HVM]

From Rivian(c)

 

[RobStark]

Rivian R2 electric SUV leaks, 3 sec 0-60, 330 miles of range, more

The Rivian R2, the electric vehicle startup’s upcoming new electric SUV, has leaked through the company’s website. It starts at...

electrek.co

Up to 330 miles of range.

 

[CyberShy]

It’s gonna be a long wait…

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Rivian R2 electric SUV leaks, 3 sec 0-60, 330 miles of range, more

The Rivian R2, the electric vehicle startup’s upcoming new electric SUV, has leaked through the company’s website. It starts at...

electrek.co

Up to 330 miles of range.

$47k for unknown miles of range and unknown 0 to 60.
$unknown for 330 miles of range and unknown 0 to 60.
$unknown for unknown miles of range and 3.3s 0 to 60.

Very informative article.

 

[Mengy]

It’s gonna be a long wait…

The real question is: can Rivian's cash reserves last them until the R2 is in production and ramped up?