Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

Wait, I don't remember any insight Tesla gave that the Model 3 Highland was in any significant way easier to manufacture than the old? I know there was a lot of unsubstantiated hype beforehand...

As for 2024 deliveries, Tesla themselves indicated YoY growth would not be as high this year as previous. And to start in Q1, Troy's evidence so far is that production might be around 450k-460k. That annualizes to 1.8 million. If Tesla does:

Q1: 450k
Q2: 500k
Q3: 550k
Q4: 600k

That would get 2.1 million. That seems like a best case. Cybertruck might add 50k total for the year, so you are talking big quarterly increases in Model 3 and especially Model Y. Each quarter would have to produce an additional 3,800 cars/wk vs the quarter before.

Berlin and Austin should scale some, but not that much.

2 million seems like a good guess.

I agree with this, 2.1 million is what I'm expecting to see for 2024 production. I know a lot of posters here think that is too conservative, and I am hoping I'm wrong and they are correct. But I'm still expecting 2.1m.

 

[dhanson865]

NACS where NA stands for North America
Europe is CCS-2 as it supports 3 phase power, also used in Chile
China is GB/T
Japan is Chademo, but Teslas use NACS
Tesla Charge Ports & Plugs from China, North America, and Europe Compared (for Models S, X, 3, & Y)

What about South America other than Chile
What about Australia
What about Africa

 

[Artful Dodger]

Attention seeking garden tool is all he is

Really? I thought Dan'o got a roadster so he could collect those sweet, sweet referral credits... /s

Cheers!

 

[Spacep0d]

NACS where NA stands for North America
Europe is CCS-2 as it supports 3 phase power, also used in Chile
China is GB/T
Japan is Chademo, but Teslas use NACS
Tesla Charge Ports & Plugs from China, North America, and Europe Compared (for Models S, X, 3, & Y)

*NACS uses Tesla.

 

[geometro]

Anec-data… a relative just picked up their Model Y (and first Tesla) yesterday! Their Jeep 4xe has been un-driveable for the past several months due to their recall on the battery system (which got very little news coverage… shocking!).

Cybertruck is infiltrating Austin and seeing more of them here in Westlake.

 

[GhostSkater]

What about South America other than Chile
What about Australia
What about Africa

Brazil is CCS2, part of why it sucks a bit to import US Teslas here, there is adapters, but still

If/when Tesla comes here with NACS would be a bit of a pain for a short time until Superchagers are dominant and sufficient to the point you can ignore other networks

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I have just now given my wife a big kiss, for enduring my huge rant after reading the above.
A rant about the sick system where lawyers are awarded large sums of money for winning law suits, unbelievably out of proportion to their work.
A system that only is about money, justice comes in second place.
How on earth does this benefit TSLA shareholders? We’ve voted on this!
Now we shareholders are going to pay for one person’s idiocy, one judge's doubtful decision and all the lawyer's greed. Unbelievable.
/r

Is it even a legal team? What I read just stated one attorney.

 

[mongo]

What about Australia

CCS2

What about Africa

South Africa is CCS2

 

[Dutchie]

Yeah, not actually funny. Brazen crooks right there. That they think for a second that they should be allowed to become TSLA shareholders is gobsmacking. So they can what? Be allowed to vote those shares and quite possibly decide the direction the company is taken in? Decide who sits on the board? Decide how the man that willed the company into profitability should be paid? Can we not smell the hostile takeover type approach? First overturn an 80% shareholder vote, then become a major shareholder.

No, effin’ thank you.

I don’t understand. What has this got to do with us? We and Tesla never hired them. They have a deal with the guy who hired them so he has to buy these shares on the open market and give the to his lawyers.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Lol, that's the 2nd Province! Saskatchewan has had a similar EV "fee" tax for years:

Road-Use Charge on Electric Vehicles | Fuel Tax and Road Use Charge | Government of Saskatchewan

Effective October 1, 2021, a $150 annual charge has been introduced for owners of Class LV electric vehicles registered in Saskatchewan.

www.saskatchewan.ca

"Effective October 1, 2021, a $150 annual charge has been introduced for owners of Class LV electric vehicles registered in Saskatchewan."​

The Alberta EV tax goes into effect on Jan 01, 2025 so 3 years, 3 months after the Saskatchewan EV tax. Similar to many other U.S. States who are also addicted to fossil fools.

Cheers to the Lumps of Coal!

I didn't know Saskatchewan was also in the oil (or tar) business.

Oh... seems they are.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ok - then who's they though? Are you referring to Youtuber(s), Ford, the enclave of Tesla haters?

Yes. Whoever titles articles, videos etc in the manner above. Whoever fails to tell the truth all the time in the content. Ford didn’t do . They’re riding on the coattails of Tesla.

Actions speak louder than words, at least, to me. The fact that NACS is an almost worldwide standard means that automakers are coming on board for this part of the train towards sustainability.

And it is Tesla’s invention. An invention they were originally laughed at for creating. An invention they implemented themselves all around the world, while the world laughed and waited for them to go bankrupt.

Regardless of whether they want to or not is a different story, but the fact is they've adopted the new standard and are bringing their customers along too.

Don’t care. Tell the truth when you (general) write about it or make videos.

Tesla is doing the heavy lifting no doubt, but it still takes those automakers to get to sustainability.

We’ll see about that. So far it’s Tesla and China.

Elon has said a number of times that it's impossible for Tesla to conquer 100% of the market. It probably, also, goes against the ideals of a capitalist society to attract a multi-trillion dollar business to 100% take over multiple multi-trillion dollar markets.

None of that has anything to do with the video maker erroneously titling his video.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don’t understand. What has this got to do with us? We and Tesla never hired them. They have a deal with the guy who hired them so he has to buy these shares on the open market and give the to his lawyers.

1. Are you a Tesla shareholder?
2. Did you vote yes to Elon’s 2018 compensation package?

If you said yes to either question you should be both angry and concerned.

And no, nobody is having to buy 6B worth of TSLA on the open market.

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763602599381745982

Looking at the jerkiness and speed of the robots. One has to know Tesla will incorporate AI software into its present plant robotics first. The faster the robot, the more cars are made.

 

[MC3OZ]

I agree with this, 2.1 million is what I'm expecting to see for 2024 production. I know a lot of posters here think that is too conservative, and I am hoping I'm wrong and they are correct. But I'm still expecting 2.1m.

Berlin is at 6,000 per week and still ramping, the ramp at Austin for both model Y and Cybertruck seems to be going well.

I think there is another at least 4,000 per week combined out of Berlin and Austin compared to this time last year.

I can't remember what Berlin and Austin were producing this time last year,,,

A bit more out of Fremont and Shanghai would not be a major surprise.

Considering Tesla is between 2 major growth waves, they are still managing some growth.

 

[EQC_]

1. Are you a Tesla shareholder?
2. Did you vote yes to Elon’s 2018 compensation package?

If you said yes to either question you should be both angry and concerned.

And no, nobody is having to buy 6B worth of TSLA on the open market.

I suspect you may have missed the joking/sarcasm/implied wishful thinking by Dutchie...

I think we all wish the actions of Mr. 9Shares and his lawyers didn't impact all of us...

 

[Mengy]

Considering Tesla is between 2 major growth waves, they are still managing some growth.

Some growth, sure. 2.1 million for 2024 would still be about 16% over the 1.8 million for 2023. That would be ~300,000 more cars sold for this year, most of which should come from Berlin and Austin ramping further, and about 50K or so for the CT. I doubt Fremont nor Shanghai will do much more than they did last year.

My hunch is most growth in 2025 will come from CT scaling up, plus a bit more out of Austin and Berlin, and if we're lucky some Gen3 towards the end of 2025, but that's a big hefty MAYBE in my opinion.

Now, 2026, that should be a very interesting year with respect to growth due to Gen 3 ramping and possibly Giga Mexico coming online...

 

[MC3OZ]

Some growth, sure. 2.1 million for 2024 would still be about 16% over the 1.8 million for 2023. That would be ~300,000 more cars sold for this year, most of which should come from Berlin and Austin ramping further, and about 50K or so for the CT. I doubt Fremont nor Shanghai will do much more than they did last year.

My hunch is most growth in 2025 will come from CT scaling up, plus a bit more out of Austin and Berlin, and if we're lucky some Gen3 towards the end of 2025, but that's a big hefty MAYBE in my opinion.

Now, 2026, that should be a very interesting year with respect to growth due to Gen 3 ramping and possibly Giga Mexico coming online...

The CT ramp seems to be progressing well so far, perhaps a bit better than expected.

I doubt that changes the 300,000 additional cars in any meaningful way.

FSD progress, Megapack progress, and the reveal of the production version of the Roadster could also be positive catalysts.

I am surprised there a no public plans for additional Megapack factories...

Elon's talk to Tesla employees on future plans has been delayed, or has not yet been made public...

If it is an intentional delay, needing to line up some ducks beforehand might be a factor.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764098844525301943

 

[Krugerrand]

I suspect you may have missed the joking/sarcasm/implied wishful thinking by Dutchie...

I think we all wish the actions of Mr. 9Shares and his lawyers didn't impact all of us...

Um - as the reigning royal of sarcasm, I’ve either not had enough pommes frites today or Hostess Ho-Hos if that post was a joke.

 

[ShareLofty]

I see posts about how the USA economy is doing well. I disagree. I personally know exactly zero people that feel the economy is doing well. But feelings and all that... here is some data.

View attachment 1015951

More comments and data in the thread

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754902193541435751

You know me, I’m doing great!

TL;dw Altman et.al and Microsoft highjacked a not-for-profit, exclusively-for-educational-purposes company (incorporated in Delaware), fired the OpenAI Board of Directors, and installed Microsoft puppet directors who don't appear to have the necessary skills to understand AGI.
Further, OpenAI created some form of convoluted legal fabrication so that Microsoft gets to choose OpenAI Directors, set company goals and take a share in profits all WITHOUT being legal shareholders. WTF?! Sue those Delaware dogs, Elon!

Cheers!

Can the mods please ban this off topic discussion?

As an "in your face" to the judge I really think the Tesla board should have a vote now of the current shareholders reconfirming Elon's 2018 pay package.

Be careful what you wish for!

Personally I think institutions would vote for it.

You’d be wrong. They won’t. They have a fiduciary responsibility to their clients and reconfirming the 2018 pay package for work already complete is not in their clients interest. They would open themselves up to massive lawsuits. The Tesla board knows this and why they are sittting on their hands.