Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hitchhiker]

I’m not American and haven’t lived there in awhile but curious. Can trump not just stop the 7500 dollar credit program thingy next January or is it somehow protected?

Just curious.

By himself he can't "stop" it. Its part of a package passed by congress, so congress would have to pass a new package that repeals it. But he could instruct the departments under him to change the interpretations of the law such that it is difficult or impossible to get.

 

[hitchhiker]

R2 looks fantastic… a little too fantastic. $45k for 300mi range base model is something they need to put in customer hands before I can believe it. Unless they are planning on selling each of these at a $40k loss like the R1.

R2 appears to be what I would want.

But then, the R1 is a fantastic vehicle. Its problems are price and scalability. They just plain aren't producing enough. They have a fantastic winner with the Amazon van too, but that doesn't seem to pull their company numbers up enough.

Its been my feeling for a while that they will go bankrupt, and get picked up for cheap by someone who will make the fantastic design work with numbers and scale that will work. So I'd own the product... probably not the stock.

 

[GOVA]

R2 looks fantastic… a little too fantastic. $45k for 300mi range base model is something they need to put in customer hands before I can believe it. Unless they are planning on selling each of these at a $40k loss like the R1.

Looks are subjective, so whatever. Now, 2026 per Rivian might turn out to be 2028. IMO, those will not compete with Y but with what's left of CRVs and RAW4s etc.

$45K ah? Okay.

 

[Linkmeup]

R3 too - crossover

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765807709373575574

 

[keydiver]

How much range will Model 2 have? If less than 230, it is very similar to Nissan Leaf. The only advantage will be that it can charge at TESLA network. I doubt Model 2 will be able to push TESLA to the largest automaker.

I think your view is too US-centric, IMO.

 

[uscbucsfan]

If Rivian survives, they'll have a killer lineup.

 

[2daMoon]

Topic as in two people who own less shares combined than many here, but are given weight to their knowledge of Tesla’s business and how far reaching their wand swinging appears to be?

Yeah, wrote these two off years ago.

As for ARK, opinions vary but like Andrea James they at least knew Tesla was special and destined for significant rise of valuation before anyone else in their industry. ARK currently thinks TSLA is undervalued. Well, duh. But they get credit for actually putting some money on the line far beyond the other two gentlemen ever have and they’ve never changed their tune like the wind. Even when selling TSLA they’ve never talked the company down nor said the kind of ridiculous nonsense the other two spout like clockwork.

Plus, what could possibly be more bullish than two investor-analysts selling shares and being more negative about Tesla?

Prognostication -

Initial catalyst to begin launch countdown will be Darth Powell's easing of the Fed's interest rates.
This will lead investors to search for well-established growth opportunities.​

Anybody know of any good growth companies poised to introduce a plethora of new technologies and products in the near future?

 

[Usain]

By himself he can't "stop" it. Its part of a package passed by congress, so congress would have to pass a new package that repeals it. But he could instruct the departments under him to change the interpretations of the law such that it is difficult or impossible to get.

That's correct. However, I think it would be difficult to implement a policy that guts the 7500K credit. It would be challenged in court and it would be very unpopular. Remember, the 7500K credit is needed by the legacy OEMs more than Tesla.

 

[mongo]

Possibly a dumb question: would a business have insurance to cover this sort of thing? I guess there's two sides to that -- is that sort of insurance offered, and if so, do most businesses pay for that coverage?

Businesses smmight, Tesla might not.
From the 10k:

Our insurance coverage strategy may not be adequate to protect us from all business risks.
We may be subject, in the ordinary course of business, to losses resulting from products liability, accidents, acts of God and other claims against us, for which we may have no insurance coverage. As a general matter, we do not maintain as much insurance coverage as many other companies do, and in some cases, we do not maintain any at all. Additionally, the policies that we do have may include significant deductibles or self-insured retentions, policy limitations and exclusions, and we cannot be certain that our insurance coverage will be sufficient to cover all future losses or claims against us. A loss that is uninsured or which exceeds policy limits may require us to pay substantial amounts, which may harm our financial condition and operating results.

 

[ggies07]

If Rivian survives, they'll have a killer lineup.

I say let the 3 major autos collapse and put all those resources into Rivian. Tesla and Rivian to move us towards 100% all electric driving.

 

[ggies07]

R3 too - crossover

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765807709373575574

It's got a very retro 80's vibe to me:

 

[2daMoon]

I say let the 3 major autos collapse and put all those resources into Rivian. Tesla and Rivian to move us towards 100% all electric driving.

Rivian doesn't need more money, if that is the resource being referred to.
They need to work diligently towards reducing their cost of operations in order to become profitable.
Throwing more money at the problem is counter to achieving that result.

 

[ggies07]

Rivian doesn't need more money, if that is the resource being referred to.
They need to work diligently towards reducing their cost of operations in order to become profitable.
Throwing more money at the problem is counter to achieving that result.

ok, well, whatever it takes. I don't follow the company too closely, but I like their products better than the big 3.

 

[hobbes]

Quite good numbers for Jan+Feb in EU.
View attachment 1025561
We already know Q124 will be lower than Q123, the question is "by how much".
Also, there is the matter of a idle Tesla Berlin.

So far it had not been looking as if Q1 24 would be lower than Q1 23, but with Berlin down it will be interesting..

 

[geometro]

Rivian's "one more thing" was a great move. It's exciting enough while also being plausible to actually happen (roadster had this surprise element too, but it's been such a long time... and "next year" could mean December 2025).

 

[SOULPEDL]

So far it had not been looking as if Q1 24 would be lower than Q1 23, but with Berlin down it will be interesting..

View attachment 1025594

I bet it's possible to catch up. Supplies come in despite. So store those onsite and burn through at max capacity run rate. Lean mfg rules out the window, do a Blitz in Germany! I heard they know something about that Blitz. Although... there's only 3 weeks left, so tic-tok on that power.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Reading on X that the German terrorism attack on the tesla factory is now expected to cost tesla in the 3 digit millions of dollars. And no expected restore date yet.

I still think Tesla needs to look at providing its own power infrastructure for the German factory. Now that the terrorists who did this know how easy it was to take an entire factory down and costing hundreds of millions of dollars in the process I can’t see them not planning more of these attacks. Even if tesla throws a billion bucks at the problem it is still cheaper than having this happen once or twice more.

Or maybe it’s just too expensive doing business in Germany.

Interesting times.

Well, since the original Gigafactory is powered exclusively by solar (they did this, right?) it shouldn't be too hard to install solar panels on top.

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765622156703240671

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Guess they don't want $TSLA to breach $180 today

 

[DarkandStormy]

So far it had not been looking as if Q1 24 would be lower than Q1 23, but with Berlin down it will be interesting..

View attachment 1025594

It kind of did, if you believed they had "smoothed out" the wave, such as Q3-4 below.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763724741792116968