FastEddieB
Member
Not a van, but I think something like this could be a hit. And not require extensive retooling or new engineering.
I could see one of these a a supplement to our ICE tow vehicle, not a replacement.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Not a van, but I think something like this could be a hit. And not require extensive retooling or new engineering.
I could see one of these a a supplement to our ICE tow vehicle, not a replacement.
GhostSkater
Member
Rohan woke up on the weekend and chose violence
Plus getting FSD out to Canada:
I think you are misunderstanding. There is a car demand market in aggregate, it isn't split into used / new with no relationship. Drop in demand for used cars relates to demand for new models as well. If a 1 year old car drops $5k in price, people will increasingly select it over a new car of the same model if the new price doesn't change. Sure if a company decides to cut new prices for no reason, this would also skew the used market, but that is rarely the case.
The big hint here is that used Teslas started dropping in price in the 2nd half of 2022, well before Tesla cut prices. @Troy indicate order flow as dropping, so this matches that new Teslas were also seeing a demand drop. Tesla simply just decided not to adjust prices in real-time, and wait for a massive cut in Q1 2023.
Production volumes aren't that much higher than a year ago, that should have some effect but the +$10k drop in value just in the past year (not even counting 2022 massive decline).
This is pure and simple a indicator that demand for EVs has weakened. It's not just Teslas, other EVs that can be tracked (like Polestar) show a similar pattern.
My assumptions (as worthless as anyone's) about FSD are more like $1000 at time of purchase and a starting subscription of $200/yr. However, I am also assuming 50%+ of all vehicles license this from Tesla. It isn't insane amounts of revenue ultimately, but it is still billions of dollars in recurring, very high margin revenue with a long runway for growth as more and more cars buy/license and stay on the road for a decade+ (note: I think average age of a car on the road on the U.S. is around 12 years old now).
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
TBC, that's "FSD subscriptions"
FSD (including FSDb) already exists and is available in Canada and has been for years- it was just only via purchase.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Wouldn't "demand" be as much a function of how many of the used EVs have sold as it would be based on this change in price?
Over the same period, does the amount of time a Tesla sits on the lot waiting for a buyer grow, decline, or remain constant as the prices are reduced?
If the sales of used Tesla vehicles were static or increasing how would this affect a demand problem theory?
How does Tesla used car sales compare to other ICE and EV used car sales over the same period?
Is the percentage of Tesla used sales increasing or decreasing compared to others?
Could there be macro factors unaccounted for that have influenced this quick assertion of there being a demand issue for Tesla?
Was this tool used in formulating your assessment?
Cup half full....or half empty.Wouldn't "demand" be as much a function of how many of the used EVs have sold as it would be based on this change in price?
Over the same period, does the amount of time a Tesla sits on the lot waiting for a buyer grow, decline, or remain constant as the prices are reduced?
If the sales of used Tesla vehicles were static or increasing how would this affect a demand problem theory?
How does Tesla used car sales compare to other ICE and EV used car sales over the same period?
Is the percentage of Tesla used sales increasing or decreasing compared to others?
Could there be macro factors unaccounted for that have influenced this quick assertion of there being a demand issue for Tesla?
Was this tool used in formulating your assessment?
People see what they want.
Some are consistent in "finding" evidence to support their viewpoint.
I’m not sure there is a drop in demand. It’s just that the initial market has been filled. It’s conquest sales now- a different market from the early adopter market. The demand for cars is there, however Tesla has to compete for customers with different priorities. Tesla has some weakness in that market, including number of fueling stations in some areas, distrust of new technologies, resistance to brand change, etc. Reducing price is the easiest way to overcome some of these, but it is harder slogging from now on.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Good video.
To me the real question is how will Tesla transition to a Robo taxi model. I used to think it would be better to do this sooner with human drivers but it is probably best they have held off as this model would be a loosing proposition financially. To me there is a lot to learn and be sorted out for Robo taxi besides automated driving. It is strictly 3rd part management or will Tesla do this on its own? It is going to need a lot of infrastructure (charging, etc.) and logistical support. Nothing like solving FSD, but it would be nice to understand the strategy here even if they are far from implementation.
Why are those Cybertrucks just sitting all over the place instead of getting shipped???
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
From watching Joe's videos this appears to indicate that production is growing and the number of vehicles being processed is rising. This can give the impression that they are just sitting there.
They are first parked at the final checkout lot on the East side of the factory. I don't think they are sitting there for long, only until they can be staged for loading on transport trucks at the logistic lot across the highway.
Once the tunnel under the highway is complete things should flow better, as all of the final checkout and logistics will eventually be done across the highway.
Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
I love these daily updates from the electricity supplier of Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg 
In addition to the complex assembly work, the civil engineering work has now also been completed, meaning that the underground cable systems have already been fully exposed and prepared for connection to the overhead line, which is braced by the pylon. Another complicating factor is that water is entering the construction site due to the damp ground conditions. This is being countered with continuous drainage.
The police are on site with teams and emergency vehicles and patrol the area regularly.
Translated with deepL.com (free version)
Two new high-voltage gantries fully assembled - visible construction progress achieved thanks to 3-shift system
Following the arrival of extensive materials, in particular scaffolding and numerous high-voltage technology components, at the construction site near Steinfurt yesterday (Friday), the construction and assembly of two impressive high-voltage gantries began immediately after delivery. As the entire construction site is being worked on in a 3-shift system, significant progress has already been made in assembly and civil engineering by this morning. Both portals are a load-bearing component for the connection between the underground cable system and the overhead line system braced to the pylon. They consist of massive foundations and elaborate steel lattice structures, which were assembled on site by hand by specialized technicians (see picture).In addition to the complex assembly work, the civil engineering work has now also been completed, meaning that the underground cable systems have already been fully exposed and prepared for connection to the overhead line, which is braced by the pylon. Another complicating factor is that water is entering the construction site due to the damp ground conditions. This is being countered with continuous drainage.
The police are on site with teams and emergency vehicles and patrol the area regularly.
Translated with deepL.com (free version)
this looks like a legacy design forced onto CT ... horse designed by committee... or AINot a van, but I think something like this could be a hit. And not require extensive retooling or new engineering.
I could see one of these a a supplement to our ICE tow vehicle, not a replacement.
That was fast! (Then again, Rock Concerts, and they haven't even hung the speakers or overhead lights yet.)I love these daily updates from the electricity supplier of Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg
Two new high-voltage gantries fully assembled - visible construction progress achieved thanks to 3-shift system
Following the arrival of extensive materials, in particular scaffolding and numerous high-voltage technology components, at the construction site near Steinfurt yesterday (Friday), the construction and assembly of two impressive high-voltage gantries began immediately after delivery. As the entire construction site is being worked on in a 3-shift system, significant progress has already been made in assembly and civil engineering by this morning. Both portals are a load-bearing component for the connection between the underground cable system and the overhead line system braced to the pylon. They consist of massive foundations and elaborate steel lattice structures, which were assembled on site by hand by specialized technicians (see picture).
In addition to the complex assembly work, the civil engineering work has now also been completed, meaning that the underground cable systems have already been fully exposed and prepared for connection to the overhead line, which is braced by the pylon. Another complicating factor is that water is entering the construction site due to the damp ground conditions. This is being countered with continuous drainage.
The police are on site with teams and emergency vehicles and patrol the area regularly.
Translated with deepL.com (free version)
View attachment 1026121
So cables coming from ground to a horizontal overhead run explains the (what looks like) concrete blocks on the old one and likely why they didn't just splice new cable in. Darn thing is under extreme tension and a fire may have compromise some structural properties.
So by Monday then?
It’s for the car. When I hop in my wife’s Tesla it’s not there even though it has all my settings. I look forward to unsubscribing when she gets her foundation cybertruck.
It is relevant to understand that there are many factors other than nominal purchase prive that influenvleo buying behavior and new vs used. There is a notion commonly held that price is the primary factor in elasticity of demand. That assumption is false. Affordability is, absolutely, a key definition for Total Addressable Market (TAM).Within TAM there is a vast array of factors, some related to initial price, some related to expectation of operating economy, so having nothing to do with any definition of cost.
Oversimplifying these factors drives otherwise intelligent people into price competition. That drives once-premium brands such as, say, Ralph Lauren to lose the luxury market.
A brand can have multiple price and position differences for essentially identical core products. Chevrolet Suburban/Cadillac Escalade is prototypical. Tesla can and should continue category diversification.The new French Model Y delivery van vs Model Y Performance is beginning to explore wider choices. These are entirely different than range choices.
As Tesla expand such options wider choices that preserve high margins but deliver significant buyer value will become more prevalent. The China-only Long Wheelbase Model 3 is another example of a market segment Mercedes Benz once owned in Lebanon/Syria/Egypt etc. as well as China, for chauffeur-driven and intercity taxi markets. Proliferation of such segment-specific variants can enable Tesla to rapidly expand specific segments, replicating global appeal of, for example, Toyota Corolla, luxury to econobox to pocket rocket all on the same platform.
Such approaches enable higher margins and Word of Mouth to expand markets without wasting promotional reserves. Tesla has been moving in this direction, almost invisible outside the target markets.
Really the future is not so bleak as many suggest, nearly always by people who are unaware of automotive markets, energy utility markets, stationary storage commercially, much less manufacturing and logistics, essentially zero about implications of direct vs dealer sales.
When reviewing the entire Tesla business model vsnthatnif any given competitor almost any competent financial analyst can understand what approach yields superior free cash flow. By definition, such an analyst can look far beyond a GAAP P&L.
No question that this sort of work is irrelevant to speculators who flitter about generating outsized profits for market intermediaries, and reduced carrying costs for investors ready to lend shares to those speculators.
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