Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tony73]

Speaking of robotaxis, why exactly does Tesla need to mess with a robotaxi service if and when the time comes. Why not sell Uber and Lyft the cars and license the SW at $2500 a month. 90% of the profits for 10% of the hassles of running an actual robotaxi service.

I think we”ll see a hybrid model. Tesla deploying company owned vehicles in a few areas and licensing out the rest.

 

[capster]

…
The future of Tesla looks incredibly sunny, but Tesla robotaxis and humanoids are still many years away from helping TSLA go higher.

There’s at least some speculation in the AI runup in the market. By the same token, it’s possible that the market will anticipate Tesla’s success as well, especially as we continue to see performance improvements as with the Optimus videos that have been trickling out.

… Once either of them are deployed into the real world TSLA will certainly explode upwards.

There’s reason to hope, particularly given the sharp but brief bear raids in between short interest reports we’ve seen the last few months.

… Neither are happening anytime soon though.

This is pessimism. I expect Tesla is working on a prototype production line (unboxed?) for Optimus in parallel with the robot’s development, which is to say now.

I also expect Tesla has figured out some ranked list of where Optimus can be most economically productive given its most likely achievable development trajectory.

Which is to say, I expect early Optimus robots to be coming off a production line and to be doing productive work somewhere within Musk’s companies this year.

I’ve said before and will say again that FSD will be better than human drivers—on average—this year.

And, though it’s hard to predict all regulatory environments, some locales will be tripping over themselves to allow robotaxis for the benefits it offers their citizens. Which is to say, regulations may be less of a hurdle than many think.

 

[unk45]

That is some crazy high insurance costs. I have a model Y and I am not even close to that amount. My insurance costs is not much more than my wife’s Kia telluride insurance.

I wonder why the insurance for a MY would be so much higher in your area than mine?

Even more than most vehicle types EV's carry high variability based more on underwriting perspective than on direct experience. That said, traditionally auto insurance underwriters in most of Europe and North America tend to penalize heavy use of aluminum and high performance, both driven much more by accident severity in terms of collision repair than by other factors. Perhaps oddly, primarily for categories not directly affected, such as liability and comprehensive (mostly US-centric), also often show huge variability. Otherwise the 'no claims bonus' (UK term but equivalent in nearly all markets) can transform those factors, and multi-coverage with some underwriters with no claims on any can also have major influence. That is not to mention traditional big factors such as credit ratings, age, marital status, residential circumstances, and length of relationship.

All of that makes any generalization hard to make. I have been with the same company for >20 years in US, with zero claims counted against me in that entire time. (Two claims, but both counted towards other driver, neither when I was driving.) They have insured Ferrari, Maserati, Porsche, Three Tesla Performance versions, all with quite reasonable prices. That is rare perhaps, because at late 70's for both spouse and myself we could expect to be rated like teenage boys, but we are not.
Part of that is linked to residential coverage too.

My Tesla does not live where Tesla Insurance operates but I'd be very interested to see how they would view my risk.

From decades of experience as a consumer and as an advisor to two underwriting groups, I am convinced that direct comparisons are almost impossible to make. YMMV rules.

 

[EVMeister]

Make of this what you will. From a "Programs and Data Labeling" manager at Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1766859231582462150

 

[NicoV]

I just noticed that my Model S uploaded 60GB of data this month, with 40GB just this week. Clips for EU training?

 

[Cult Member]

EXCITING NEWS!
The electricity supplier of the Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg announced that
there is now a chance that the Giga-Factory and the logistics center will be resupplied ahead of schedule in the evening hours of tomorrow Monday. The result of the high-voltage measurement and thus the approval of the certified test engineers will be decisive for the resumption of supply on Monday. As things stand, this extensive test of the entire high-voltage technology at the E.DIS construction site near Steinfurt will be carried out during the course of Monday.
Translated with deepL.com (free version). Source and more details https://www.e-dis.de/de/ueber-uns/e-dis-aktuell/pressemitteilungen/aktuelle-stoerung.html

 

[CHGolferJim]

So my wife's car was hit, 4 airbags went off, and I'm looking at replacement cars.

TSLA is too low for me to just buy a Tesla without considering cost of insurance so I'm researching insurance.

4 of the 5 most expensive cars to insure are EVs and the 2 most expensive are Tesla.

Even if you don't think Tesla insurance is a direct money maker for TSLA, it clearly affects cost of ownership and thus affordability for lower income buyers to get into a Tesla. So I'm saying if Tesla insurance is run near 0 profit it still will increase profitability of TSLA by way of increasing demand for cars they produce, and the effect that has on pricing of the car to begin with.

View attachment 1026389

Surely a quote from your current insurer would beat those figures, those are multiples of what I pay (USAA, albeit multiiple policy discounts).

 

[Maarten]

I'm not claiming the source is accurate, but this is the source I stumbled across that you are asking about.

When an article claims info about 2024, but says “Updated December 29, 2022”, then that would be enough for me to distrust its content and to start looking further for information.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I'm not claiming the source is accurate, but this is the source I stumbled across that you are asking about.

Car Insurance Rates by Make & Model (2024) – Policygenius

The type of car you drive can impact your insurance rates. Some of the cheapest cars to insure are the Ford F150, Honda CR-V, Toyota Tacoma, Ford Escape, and more.

www.policygenius.com

View attachment 1026416

@dhanson865,
From the very same article that you attached and miss-quoted, you find the following:

Yet you start your post with Most Expensive Cars to Insure, then erroneously claim "4 of the 5 most expensive cars to insure are EVs and the 2 most expensive are Tesla." What is your objective in posting this falsehood? Is a Model Y at twice the list price of a Chevy Bolt more expensive to insure. You betcha, as it should be. Are Tesla's more expensive to insure than other autos of similar purchase price (ICE or EV)? No. Are Teslas the most expensive cars to insure. Definitely not.

 

[Doit]

I know people are triggered by any comment on "demand issues" as it brings up memories of historically inaccurate claims, so fine let's ignore that wording. It's not really needed anyway in valuation.

Valuation is about how much money I expect the auto business to generate in the coming years. The graph I presented is an indicator that there will continue to be compressed margins in the near future. Some of the arguments why actually support that perhaps margins will not rebound as strongly as some would hope in the coming years.

Currently Tesla's operating margin is 8%. If there isn't actully any "demand issues" that could then rebound the other way, really the only boost to automotive operating margin is likely interest rate induced, which could add another % or 2% at most. Let's say Tesla can return to achieve 10% operating margin on auto.

On 5 million cars annually at ASP of $32,500, Tesla will generate 16.25 billion in net income. At a PE ratio of 50 (very generous) that would value the company at 825 billion at that time (not discounting back to present day). Likely PE ratio applied to automotive at that time will be less because the growth phase will be slowing down. At a PE ratio of 40, that would value the company at 660 billion.

Current market cap is 550 billion. So the market is valuing a lot of future automotive profit growth already into the valuation of the company.

So, I don't see the market revaluing the company much higher on automotive unless something fundamentally changes about future expectations of operating margin. If there isn't any demand issue, then that leaves less room for there to be any improvement due to demand improvement.

The next-gen vehicle will certainly lower COGs along with ASPs, but do we expect it to really have the highest margins out of the lineup? Unlikely.

So again, my read is the automotive growth is already mostly built into the company valuation.

The only things that can remodel the company signficantly higher are robotaxis and optimus. Those revaluations aren't coming for years.

All the little things, insurance, charging revenue, etc...those are nice but are peanuts. The largest of the them (Energy), could add 100 billion to value at most, the rest are even smaller. These are nice things that will help Tesla sustain a valuation much higher than other auto companies, but they are only adding 10-20% upside from here.

Expect the stock to oscillate until some of its AI becomes a real product.

You made a bunch of assumptions, some of them may very well turn out to be true, others not so much. I do have my opinion about how much value of such mental exercises have, but it's irrelevant to this thread and I'll just keep it to myself.

If there isn't actully any "demand issues" that could then rebound the other way, really the only boost to automotive operating margin is likely interest rate induced, which could add another % or 2% at most. Let's say Tesla can return to achieve 10% operating margin on auto.

assumptions

On 5 million cars annually

assumption; and what year?

at ASP of $32,500

assumption

The next-gen vehicle will certainly lower COGs along with ASPs, but do we expect it to really have the highest margins out of the lineup? Unlikely.

assumptions

So again, my read is the automotive growth is already mostly built into the company valuation.

assumption

The only things that can remodel the company signficantly higher are robotaxis and optimus. Those revaluations aren't coming for years.

assumptions

All the little things, insurance, charging revenue, etc...those are nice but are peanuts.

assumption

The largest of the them (Energy), could add 100 billion to value at most, the rest are even smaller.

assumptions

These are nice things that will help Tesla sustain a valuation much higher than other auto companies, but they are only adding 10-20% upside from here.

assumption

 

[Stretch2727]

I just noticed that my Model S uploaded 60GB of data this month, with 40GB just this week. Clips for EU training?

Where do you find this information?

 

[cab]

Since it is the weekend...does anyone feel there is a "reasonable" chance Tesla will defer GigaMexico for other locations? I know there is the whole U.S. credits situation, but given the rest of the world's appetite for smaller cars, I can't help but wonder if Shanghai might not be a better choice. We sure as heck know they can build a plant in record time...

 

[mongo]

Where do you find this information?

Home wifi router statistics

 

[GOVA]

Where do you find this information?

Your network tools, if equipped. Not sure if Teslamate supports this function but it might.

 

[NicoV]

Where do you find this information?

In the network statistics of my Ubiquiti router.

 

[hobbes]

Good work by the electricity supplier:

+++ 6:55 pm Gigafactory & Edeka: Power may be restored on Monday evening +++
The Gigafactory and Edeka could be supplied with electricity again ahead of schedule on Monday evening. The decisive factor for this is the result of a high-voltage measurement planned for tomorrow, Monday. The restart of the power supply depends on the approval of certified test engineers.

 

[Stretch2727]

Off topic...but thought this maybe of some help as many here own multiple Tesla's. My wife and I have both been carrying 2 cards for years in case our phone dies. Was easy to pair one card to 2 cars and keep the others at home as spares.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1766880109267746925

 

[NicoV]

Off topic...but thought this maybe of some help as many here own multiple Tesla's. My wife and I have both been carrying 2 cards for years in case our phone dies. Was easy to pair one card to 2 cars and keep the others at home as spares.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1766880109267746925

Does that actually work? I thought after some time it would only work on 1 car.

 

[GOVA]

In the network statistics of my Ubiquiti router.

Something tells me very small % use Ubiquiti/Unifi especially at home.

 

[woof]

Does that actually work? I thought after some time it would only work on 1 car.

Yes, it works. I've done exactly that with a 3 and a Y. The same card opens both.