There are false starts due to weather in that last mile and transplant procedures are cancelled...especially nowadays. If you increase the ability to get an organ from any location in the world, rather than only locally within a 2-3 hour distance...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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There are false starts due to weather in that last mile and transplant procedures are cancelled...especially nowadays. If you increase the ability to get an organ from any location in the world, rather than only locally within a 2-3 hour distance...
Starship is going to put all of the supersonic shipping companies out of business.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Indeed, THE COMPETITION IS COMING!
Are you under the impression starships will be taking off from, and landing in, hospital parking lots?
Also I suspect the mods would appreciate if we take any furthering of an already ridiculous discussion over here:
For almost every large country most people generalize based on averages while ignoring GINI coefficient. Albeit often small in percentage of population, in absolute numbers the markets are often large. Just making a brief list of places that support lucrative sales of Porsche, Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati as well as more modest expensive vehicles such as Range Rover, Mercedes, BMW etc. to give a clue: I give only five alphabetical order: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia. Practically every country of significant size has significant sales of more expensive vehicles. Examples that seem totally outrageous, say, Yemen had a thriving BMW dealer when I lived there, and my own company had three of them, while driving around the country there were many more. Then think of others from Kenya, Tanzania, Nepal to Bangladesh and note that even in those places there is a decent market for higher end vehicles with a major skew towards AWD and utility vehicles like Land Rovers and Toyota Land Cruisers.
For the most part the largest volume in such places is much smaller vehicles and much cheaper vehicles.
How much volume does Tesla need to justify setting up local distribution while investing in factories for less expensive vehicles and/or suppliers of raw materials or other items. Companies have done that for decades since Toyota built their first factory outside Japan. Where was that?: Brazil. They built Land Cruisers, named them Bandeirante and helped establish local suppliers. FWIW, my father -in-law and brother-in-law opened a successful factory making parts for that vehicle and the Land Rovers also. Similarly, such vehicles were/are built in South Africa and elsewhere. Even in Iran GM made a locally named version fo the Opel Commodore called Cheviran. I had one.
One thing most of us ignore is that Tesla already has done Complete Knocked Down(CKD) with Model S in Tilburg. The standard solution for market entry in smaller markets is and has been for generations CKD. From Ford Model T to commercial passenger airliners one version of that or another is very common, almost ubiquitous.
As Tesla begin to enter more such markets there is opportunity to build sales, service and suppliers profitably for both Tesla Energy and automotive products. These thing WILL happen, the only question is where and when. For reference, go back to the post that described the India policies that apply to Tesla. Those are built for this approach, which can grow rapidly by developing suppliers for production elsewhere and in India.
In short, thus far this discussion has been myopic about both the nature and extent of the opportunity. Tesla knows! Just take a quick look at geographical backgrounds in top and middle management. The nearly all know about these practices and often have already employed them somehwhere.
That is how Boeing, Airbus, Toyota, Samsung, Apple, LG, BYD, Huawei, GE, and every other major industrial company have been doing business for more than 100 years, since the Industrial Revolution.
Just watch Tesla! Most of us are thinking only about Gigafactories. Those will happen too, but there are suppliers, and CKD. Think tax optimization. Think market potential, think logistics advantages when using shipping in more than one direction. Think efficiency. The better logistics becomes the more of this happens.
Even when absolute sales growth seems limited, it is not. Even when opportunity for continuous cost reductions might seem elusive they may not be.
This all looks logical but really misses the point. The planet Earth is quite large and diverse. Markets are widespread and diverse. Even with FSD perfected and some saturation fo personal vehicle ownership may become evident in some urban markets there will continue to be other opportunities. There is no likely diminution in personal vehicles happening outside of a handful of major urban areas, and it is far from certain even here. Robotaxi, even perfected, is not about to supplant personal vehicle ownership.
So in order for imports to begin, factory must be announced 1st? Just 15% tax looks good, I think it's even less than what Tesla was expecting?
Import M3/Y and set up factory for M2/Q ... good approach for both India and Tesla.
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lol you're right, but i missed a preposition here and there,And yet you do
I wanted to concede the point but the phrase came out wrong.
A very interesting thing happened overnight on X.com with my post regarding the massive 220 and 230-strike put transactions of this week. Someone with access to trading information provided the timing of the trades, whether they were likely buys or sells, and provided likely profitability of the trades. With that information in hand, I no longer believe that the huge put transactions were the cause of the early market trading pushdowns of TSLA this week. I'm impressed by the useful feedback I received on X.com. More likely, the big pushdowns were short-selling to induce fear. Big institutional investors don't normally sell in such a fashion that maximizes depression of the stock price, but of course that's a possibility too.
Link to the x.com discussion of the big put trades
Link to the x.com discussion of the big put trades
This is Spacex discussion thread.NAS down 1.2% and $TSLA down 0.85%, take that you!!
Um... I lived it, do you really think the OEM only charges the supplier the labor costs without penalties???
The article was just for the benefit of fact checkers.
Even at 1.3 million (which isn't the cost to the supplier) * 5 hours additional shutdown (after production of the parts) = multiple millions.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
But the article factually did not support your claim.
It cited days to get the needed parts or engineers to the location--- which is not a transport problem (EXISTING planes can do that in hours)- it's a supply problem- the guy who can fix your issue is already booked until next Tuesday or whatever before he can even take the job to fix your issue. Which Starship can't fix. Like 99% of the story is about lack of enough skilled workers, 0% is suggesting any issue faster air transit can fix (not to mention even if it WAS you'd still need starbases quite near both ends of the chain to beat an airplane going between 2 existing airports)
Again though, if you really feel like continuing the discussion, it belongs here:
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
To clarify, supplanting vehicle ownership on any short time scale wasn't what I was writing about. Only that the trend in that direction has already begun.
This trend will be most attractive initially for urbanites, then will be increasingly adopted in more sub-urban and rural areas. For a plethora of reasons including cost/benefit ratio, storage/parking logistics, maintenance hassles, etc. the benefits of turning over the ownership and maintenance to someone else will be attractive when the cost of the service is less than ownership and the convenience doesn't require compromise.
Autonomy/Robotaxi is expected to provide a chauffeur-equivalent service for less than the cost of a seat on public transportation. Far less than the cost of ownership. Ego and habit are more easily overcome when the wallet gets fatter for making the change.
This transformation will take decades. However, it has already begun. I also believe that as the infrastructure grows to better support higher volume that the speed of migration from ownership will increase substantially.
From a psychological perspective people will generally take the path of least resistance. Autonomy will be instantly attractive from the perspective of being transported more safely to one's desired destination while assuming the least amount of personal responsibility for getting there.
New generations never learn a fondness for the hassles of previous generations. Hand written letters, pay phones, horse and buggy, etc. are all examples of this. People who never had to use them have no qualms adopting easier ways of accomplishing their goal. As more people come to expect convenience of things like Internet, cell phones, and reduced costs/hassle of transportation the adoption rate will be represented by an S-curve.
We are on that curve. Exactly where we are today will be known at some point in the future, after looking back to when people thought personal car ownership was necessary. At that time it will seem as silly a notion as a pay phone or a horse and buggy.
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Tl;dr: to investors: automotive is a crazy hard business to be in, especially when things go wrong. We talk of 5k vehicles per week. Imagine needing to rework all those cars while resuppling the parts pipeline due to a quality escape.But the article factually did not support your claim.
It cited days to get the needed parts or engineers to the location--- which is not a transport problem (EXISTING planes can do that in hours)- it's a supply problem- the guy who can fix your issue is already booked until next Tuesday or whatever. Which Starship can't fix. Like 99% of the story is about lack of enough skilled workers, 0% is suggesting any issue faster air transit can fix (not to mention even if it WAS you'd still need starbases quite near both ends of the chain to beat an airplane going between 2 existing airports)
Again though, if you really feel like continuing the discussion, it belongs here:
What are you even arguing against?
I never claimed I was talking about needing a guy to fix a thing. I said:
"You've obviously never been on the wrong end of a automotive manufacturing plant shutdown...
$1.3 million up to $3 million per hour in 2006"
The wrong end meaning the supplier that caused the shutdown (which I could have been more explicit about, but didn't realize it mattered).
The specifics of the article beyond cost of plant shutdown were irrelevant to me, I just needed a non-proprietary number. A shutdown plant costs $X million to the OEM per hour for a shutdown. The penalty to a supplier is a multiple of that. There is your hours = millions situation, that's all (see also Giga Berlin power loss).
Yep, that's pretty much exactly what I'm expecting to see play out. TSLA will have a down year in 2024 and some of 2025 but then shortly afterwards the rocket ship blasts off again and TSLA reaches new all time highs.
If I had the spare cash I'd be buying like crazy right now.
A transition quarter or 2 will not depress the stock permanently.
This breakdown is irrational pessimism.
Growth Will resume with both existing models and new models.
In a world where everything is going up in price, Tesla’s price reductions
Make it more affordable than ever. That combined with safety and
performance and low maintenance and eventually FSD convenience makes the decision for you.
Just get the message out there by whatever means necessary .
This breakdown is irrational pessimism.
Growth Will resume with both existing models and new models.
In a world where everything is going up in price, Tesla’s price reductions
Make it more affordable than ever. That combined with safety and
performance and low maintenance and eventually FSD convenience makes the decision for you.
Just get the message out there by whatever means necessary .
Or, more likely perhaps, set up TE factory plus CKD.
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