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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I don't pooh pooh FSD per say, but rather I pooh pooh the notion that FSD will substantially contribute to revenues and earnings anytime soon. FSD is improving gradually over time and with v12 that rate of improvement seems to be accelerating, but I think it's still too expensive for most customers to seriously consider buying it while it's in beta.
Once it hits Level 5 and truly gets to hands off autonomy things change drastically, but for now while its in beta, I don't feel we can count on FSD sales to help TSLA much at all.
In my pooh pooh opinion of course.
I don't think anyone would accuse me of being bearish on FSD. And I completely agree with you.I don't pooh pooh FSD per say, but rather I pooh pooh the notion that FSD will substantially contribute to revenues and earnings anytime soon. FSD is improving gradually over time and with v12 that rate of improvement seems to be accelerating, but I think it's still too expensive for most customers to seriously consider buying it while it's in beta.
Once it hits Level 5 and truly gets to hands off autonomy things change drastically, but for now while its in beta, I don't feel we can count on FSD sales to help TSLA much at all.
In my pooh pooh opinion of course.
I think there will be a little hype about FSD getting noticeably better and that will help the stock some.
To affect the take rate appreciably, FSD needs to either be much cheaper or it needs to be good enough to let you take a nap.
But I don't think Tesla cares much about the take rate. The goal is robotaxi. And when Tesla announces that they are starting a robotaxi trial, that's when things get really interesting for the stock.
Exactly. And robotaxis are still many years away yet, we need two things to happen first:
1) FSD solved to Level 5
2) Gen 3 (which the Robotaxi will be based on) car needs to begin production.
My feeling is the stock won't reflect any true robotaxi potential until both of those are realities, and that's still two or more years away at the earliest. A physical robotaxi service is probably more like 4-5 years away at the earliest. We'll likely have Optimus selling to customers before then.
It is coming, its a matter of WHEN not IF, but its probably still quite a ways off.
FSD may well improve exponentially,
I think you are trying to convince yourself.
The two would be very different. Waymo is a mystery and it's approach is backwards compared to teslas. This means the accidents it get in require extra scrutiny because there's a natural lack of trust.
The same lawyers and regulators may already own a tesla or a tesla fsd licebsed vehicle and have used FSD daily while reading a book for a while. Everyone will fully understand FSD's performance and capabilities just like how you understand the capabilities of a uber driver. This approach ease up the level of scrutiny as the system feels less of a pandora's box because everyone has it, trust it, and uses it.
Notice how you feel about an AP accident for someone who has been using AP for years are different than those who never used AP. You are way more forgiving because you understand the capabilities while the person who never used it believes the car will just smash into trees and kill children.
From a regulatory, public trust, and operating expense standpoint, how Tesla rolls out autonomy is on point. They just need to get there.
How about take rate of FSD in Europe?
Regulation is easing in about six monhs.
www.teslarati.com
Regulation is easing in about six monhs.
Tesla FSD Beta’s launch in Europe takes a potential step forward
Tesla FSD (Full Self-Driving) Beta’s launch in Europe might have gained some traction after DCAS proposal was added to the UNECE's agenda.
www.teslarati.com
Well, that's where I do disagree. Robotaxi is many months away, not many years.
1) Tesla doesn't need level 5 to get started. Waymo is not level 5.
2) Tesla doesn't need Gen 3 to get started. They only need Gen 3 to ramp robotaxis past the trial stage.
If they want, Tesla could start a robotaxi trial with safety drivers later this year. But I think it won't happen until 2025. It won't be that hard to replicate and surpass what Waymo is doing within one year after the trial starts (early 2026?). By then, the Gen 3 vehicle will start ramping and it will be quite clear that Tesla can deploy robotaxis anywhere it chooses at a substantial profit.
Once Tesla does start a robotaxi trial in 2025, it will be quite obvious who is going to win. Nobody will be able to compete with Tesla's low-cost approach and Wall Street will have to take notice. So 2025 could easily be the year that Tesla stock goes to the moon based on future robotaxi earnings.
Are we sure the Cybertruck ramp is where we think it is? I’m now seeing more Cybertrucks than S’s in our area. S’s are rare here, but not that rare. At least 3 trucks near me.
I have a Cybertruck foundation invitation that I have so far ignored as I still have not seen the car in real life in the wild, or even in the Tesla stores that I have visited. Granted, I live in a bubble in NYC.
It does need to be cheaper. $100ish a month. It does not need to be good enough to take a nap. It needs to be good enough that Tesla owners find it a compelling value at that price.
A robotaxi trial will not move the stock. It’s a trial. Logistically, it will be a slow, expensive endeavor. It will be years before robotaxis have enough scale to move the needle financially. In that time, it will be a huge cost center.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
The stock market is forward looking. It's a voting machine that sometimes skews towards extremes just on future perceptions, not real revenues. If the perception becomes this is solvable based on recent FSD releases it will be reflected in the stock.
I don't think the bump in premarket is just because of the coming price increases.
Don’t follow why a robotaxi trial would be such a huge cost center. The idea behind FSD is that once it works, you just have to apply a meter to it and let it run. Obviously tracking, regulatory issues and oversight would be a cost, but why huge? Would think the huge costs have mostly been sunk into development already.
I saw a Cyber truck heading north on the Interstate in Seattle a week ago for the first time. Pretty heavy rain, so surrounding traffic response was muted.
Clearly though, spring migration is on!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
This post works much better with removal of the text block between your two statements and read as telling yourself something
Literally the entire history of regulation and scrutiny around Tesla says this is....not a reasonable take....on how that'd go.
They really are not.
Agreed- Tesla needs at least L4 though, which is what Waymo is. FSDb is not even 3. There are fundamental parts of an L3 (or even moreso L4) system that simply do not exist in FSDb. This isn't "It just needs to get a little better at what it does" this is "it needs to BOTH get a lot better at what it does, plus have multiple additional capabilities and features added that don't exist at all yet in the system.
Most people SUPER optimistic on this stuff just can't be bothered to understand all the parts of self driving and think L4 is just really good L2. It's fundamentally not.
None of which is to say those things can't potentially be added-- some easier than others-- but they're not things you go from "not having at all" "to L4 safe and functional" in months. And at least one (a complete OEDR) it's possible will require more hardware than exists on cars today (more on that in a second)
That depends on what it turns out the actual needed HW is for L4. As that does not exist yet on a Tesla nobody actually knows yet.
Remember when Tesla was sure HW2 was enough? It wasn't. Remember when they were sure HW2.0 cameras were enough? They weren't.
It's possible existing fleet HW isn't enough either. Or it might be. But nobody knows that yet- therefore we don't know if Tesla needs new HW or not for RTs.
If by safety drivers you mean actual drivers, sure. They could do that today.
it won't be a robotaxi, and it'll never be anything but the human driving the thing though.
Doing that wouldn't make much sense economically however-- uber and lyft generally lose money.
There is a very long history of contra-negative marketing, including multiple advertising channels. The experience has almost never varied ( I say almost because I suspect anything absolute, especially when called ‘advertising’. Bluntly, by calling attention to the negative advertising promotes the false, not the true. A quick review of political ‘fact checking’ demonstrates the doing so calls more attention to the false, giving more credibility to the false than the true.
NEVER promote fact-checking directly to people who tend to accept the thing being checked. That places the truth itself in question.
Here on TMC we have mostly TSLA owners and fans. We accept FUD correction simply because we are alert for interests opposing the Tesla mission and/or Tesla itself. The uninterested will not pay attention. The disinterested will tend to wonder if the fact-checkers might ‘protest too much’.
There is a quite large body of documentation and academic research about the methodologies for coping with false publicity. Sadly for us, perhaps, prejudice always beats fact. That reality makes the task doubly difficult.
In nearly all cases the only resolution is direct experience that sometimes leads to changed minds. Once prejudice is firmly entrenched one enters the realm of George Orwell’s 1984. He was prescient.
Just to be clear, there is a body fo thought that a different approach, inoculation, can work. Nearly all studies on the subject deal with retailing of consumer products, as does the following:
efs/pubfiles/5958/Einwiller%20Johar_Inoculation_PRR%202013.pdf
Just to make certain we can see this dispassionately, the practices that are most effective vary tremendously by cultural context. Hence, the link I offer, partly against my thesis, is by inference, not ethnocentrically US biased. Further, the research is not predicated on pre-established cultural bias for or against the product class. That means it may not, even if valid, apply to politically charged product bias.
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cliff harris
Member
Thats not good investing though. Thats waiting until something has happened, then buying at the same price as everyone else. Good investing is seeing whats imminent, and buying in advance at a quarter the price.
When its absolutely clear that FSD is a reality and Tesla's can be relied upon to drive you without paying attention, the stock is $1,000. I'd much rather buy now and wait a few years to quadruple my money.
I was referring to the initial cost of deploying at scale. A trial is a necessary step but I don’t think it will move the stock as much as people think. The market needs to see the path to profitable scale.
That will take time and money.
Those cars have to be cleaned, maintained, charged and parked. They need people to deal with regulatory issues and develop the app and supporting infrastructure.
If they need one employee for every 50 cars, that is 20,000 people that need to be hired to deploy a million vehicles.
It’s probably a couple of years from start of trial to meaningful catalyst.
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