Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Linkmeup]

I trimmed 25% of my positions at $168, $171 and $175 with gains, about 1500 shares. Feeling regret? Not now, maybe when SP reaches $200 and never comes back to $180.

I think the idea is people who invest in TESLA should only put the amount that they can sustain a 50% loss.

do you think 4-5 Tesla's are worth less 1 Microsoft over the next 1-5 years?

 

[mongo]

If the service manual is to believed, Cybertruck has an extra HV port for inductive charging.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771040487945781599

 

[uscbucsfan]

If the service manual is to believed, Cybertruck has an extra HV port for inductive charging.

I've seen that previously.

Curious if that could be retrofitted to other vehicles. Also, not sure if this is true, but that wasn't included on the Highland.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

https://twitter.com/x/status/550297212769402881

From 2014.

"Working on" is not "had". A single proof of concept shown in a video isn't a product. It was a just a piece of PR following whatever event that had his ad lib. AWD and Autopilot event? ... October 2014 unveil of the dual motor and Auto Pilot.

 

[Southpasfan]

Clearly you’ve never had mobility or health issues that don’t allow you to drive or even have a driver’s license temporarily or permanently, nor must you know anyone in that position.

FSD is priceless to an entire segment of the population.

Just got 12.3 after having the rest of the FSD suites since 2019. What an improvement. Just incredible.

Unless there is some tech hurdle about the last 50 feet, like identifying the correct driveway or parking lot, its solved. No more nonsense about the hardware not being good enough.

Yet, only on these boards and in the corners of youtube is it discussed. I cannot imagine another company with a product like this already public knowledge without the stock going nuts.

 

[Knightshade]

Just got 12.3 after having the rest of the FSD suites since 2019. What an improvement. Just incredible.

Unless there is some tech hurdle about the last 50 feet, like identifying the correct driveway or parking lot, its solved. No more nonsense about the hardware not being good enough.

Yet, only on these boards and in the corners of youtube is it discussed. I cannot imagine another company with a product like this already public knowledge without the stock going nuts.

If you just got it you might want to read the various 12.x threads in the FSD forums from folks who've had it longer-- it's absolutely a significant improvement but still quite far from solved with lots of folks having significant (including safety critical) interventions for various reasons- reports (and videos) of crossing double yellows, running lights, curbing wheels, etc...

 

[raffiniert]

I think the idea is people who invest in TESLA should only put the amount that they can sustain a 50% loss.

I think my idea is to buy as much as I can and just hodl because I actually know a thing or two about the company and find it basically impossible to have a 50% loss.

For me, 50% loss would mean going down to 135 USD (before all splits, so this should nowadays be 135/5/3 = 9 USD.

Cheers to the longs!

 

[Paracelsus]

Why is TSLA up so much today? Doesn't seem to be a macro thing...

Has the long-awaited rotation finally begun? (speculation only - and perhaps some wishful thinking too)

My wishful thinking says the rotation has begun. But holding TSLA since 2013 and wanting to HODL says:

 

[FastEddieB]

…and TSLA is a bet.

Clearly, more than a few in this thread treat it as such.

But best to remember, this thread is allegedly about investing, not gambling.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If you just got it you might want to read the various 12.x threads in the FSD forums from folks who've had it longer-- it's absolutely a significant improvement but still quite far from solved with lots of folks having significant (including safety critical) interventions for various reasons- reports (and videos) of crossing double yellows, running lights, curbing wheels, etc...

Wait until Dan O'dude gets it out for some test drives. We will soon see ALL of the mistakes, all over the internet. The public will get the perception that accidents and EVERY close call is happening all of the time to everyone (because math gaps, and the media will make sure of it).

It's a double edged sword though. These very discussions and internet debates could also bring more awareness to new (or even stale) investors. There's gonna be quite a few in that 1.5M who will want to form their own opinions, just like we saw here on TMC. Many skeptic.

Their fear won't be so much from FOMO as it will be from worrying they could be wrong about prior convictions... like it would never work, with just cameras, on a 2018 vehicle no less. Heads will spin! The public debate begins.

 

[insaneoctane]

Yet, only on these boards and in the corners of youtube is it discussed. I cannot imagine another company with a product like this already public knowledge without the stock going nuts.

True. The mainstream media is likely waiting for some "incidents" to sensationalize before they bother to mention v12 FSD....

 

[SOULPEDL]

Clearly, more than a few in this thread treat it as such.

But best to remember, this thread is allegedly about investing, not gambling.

You don't think I do?

 

[insaneoctane]

I think my idea is to buy as much as I can and just hodl because I actually know a thing or two about the company and find it basically impossible to have a 50% loss.

For me, 50% loss would mean going down to 135 USD (before all splits, so this should nowadays be 135/5/3 = 9 USD.

Cheers to the longs!

50% loss is certainly possible for anyone who bought at ATH and sold recently. Even if they didn't sell, they are wishing they hadn't bought when they did because in hindsight, they could have had twice as many shares! Ask me how I know

 

[SmokyPeat]

Has the long-awaited rotation finally begun? (speculation only - and perhaps some wishful thinking too)

View attachment 1032265

My wishful thinking says the rotation has begun. But holding TSLA since 2013 and wanting to HODL says:

View attachment 1032266

Based on half a day of trading? Might want to zoom out just a bit.

 

[FastEddieB]

You don't think I do?

You’re the one who framed it as a bet.

 

[SOULPEDL]

You’re the one who framed it as a bet.

I have a different investment method and philosophy than many on this forum. I'm sharing my methods because it actually helps me cope with the ups and downs. I'm backing up my theories of the company and it's value to the public with side bets, not just words. Meanwhile, I've posted many times that I'm consistently 90% HODLing since I can remember. I got in and stayed in without a single break ever. Please focus on that part if you must grade me in public.

My Dad always told me "the truth lies somewhere between the two extremes." So cliche, I know, and I'm sure you know too.

 

[Ipcress]

Once reviewing the details of JD Power auto reliability questionnaire it all becomes obvious. Since that is not easy to find or digest…their press release makes it obvious too:

https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2024-us-vehicle-dependability-study-vds

From some time helping clients to ‘build to J D Power’ and Consumer Reports the truth becomes both obvious and instructive.
Since both regard ignorance of operating a vehicle with problem the fact is that the simplest and most traditional has the highest rating from both. That has made many manufacturers to ‘dumb down’ controls and some to keep traditional controls while adding higher technology features (e.g. many Volvo and Mercedes Benz models).

Tesla does not ‘built to ignorance’. Years ago @Papafox published a Flight Instructor’s guide’ and generated large support from lots of us who were either flight instructors or pilots. I was both, once upon a time, and absolutely think Tesla should offer formal orientation sessions, not brief drives from inexperiences sakes people, but at minimum a day-long session that includes using a drivers side simulation, replicating the widespread portable aircraft simulators. Were such a thing to be done several virtuous things would happen: 1. FSD sales would rise; 2. Driver awareness would improve; 3. Ratings would improve and; 4. Those sessions could be used to help educate ignorant regulators, analysts and critics. Above those, they could be used by Tesla design teams to improve ergonomics and simplify complexity for drivers.

The previous paragraph contains a recipe for driver satisfaction improvement. Until now the Tesla preoccupation is to remove the driver with Robotaxi. That will not happen at scale for decades. In the meantime help the drivers and improve satisfaction!

This stuff works! I, with only one functioning eye, earned an Airline Transport Pilot rating, a flight instructor CFII-SMEL plus Helicopter and five jet type ratings, including some single-pilot ones. I add that not because I’m exceptional. I am distinctly NOT. Were there to be only a single day entertaining Tesla orientation, emphasis entertaining, Tesla would reap huge dividends.

This, by the way, is the formula used by Porsche from time to time, by Cirrus to become the best selling small jet aircraft and, in simplified form by Apple to have free orientation sessions. Those who don’t do such things may think them anti-competitive!

Agree--sounds very good. I'm also stunned that, with a big, beautiful screen in every car, Tesla has not made an orientation/tutorial INTERACTIVE video to be watched and followed along by every purchaser at pick-up. I know about the set of short introductory videos to watch that one can find on the website, which are fine for what they are. This would be a permanent (updatable with new software) video tutorial that could be watched by the owner, and anyone else who will also drive the car, taking a new driver through every aspect of operating the car.

There could be a "quick-start" guide as well, but the key would be to have the participant work interactively through all of the initial adjustments and use of controls in a controlled, well thought out way.

This will become increasingly important as FSD is introduced. Heck--I've had my MY for a couple years now, but I'd love to follow such a video course. It's hard to keep up with all the updates. I'm glad to see more Tesla advertising, finally, and look forward to more customer education, that will be needed to engage the second wave of non-native Tesla-fan customers!

 

[Gigapress]

The idea of FSD - and selling that idea while taking in tens of thousands of dollars per customer - is more valuable to Tesla than actually implementing it.

If they were on the verge of a true robotaxi / robotaxi network, why would they give up some % of that profit to owners of the vehicles? Elon said in 2015 (? The year escapes me but it's been awhile) that they had an automated snake charger. So if the cars can drive themselves and pull into a Supercharger stall and get a charge autonomously, why go through the mess of splitting things with current owners? After all, the net present value of FSD is "on the order of a couple hundred thousand dollars," per Elon. It seems more valuable to capture 100% of that rather than split it with an owner for $12k or $200/month.

The net present value of the FSD program is also strongly a function of how soon it is deployed, which depends on how many people are using it right now. If FSD cost $100k, it would have almost no users and training would be very slow. If it cost $100 then almost everyone would buy it but Tesla would be practically donating the software and future value of it, in the event of it eventually reaching L4 or L5. There is likely a trade off and the current price reflects where Tesla wants to balance value vs adequate numbers of testers.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Based on half a day of trading? Might want to zoom out just a bit.

View attachment 1032273

Gonna hold my 5 shares. Until I don't. I say 1,000 or it's not the big AI story.
(I'm just guessing... I'm not a day trader - that would require actually installing Sink-or-Swim.).

 

[capster]

I think there will be a period of time when some of today's Tesla vehicles do participate in a robotaxi network. But most won't.

The Gen 3 vehicle is the purpose-built robotaxi. That's the one Tesla is counting on. So selling FSD right now is just a way to grow the business in the meantime.

I might’ve thought so in the past, but now I think a lot of owners will be increasingly inclined to put their vehicles in the robotaxi network as a function of the age of their vehicle.

That is, people will put their old or even not so old Teslas into the network rather than part with them when they buy new Teslas. Putting their previous Tesla in the fleet may enable many to buy a new Tesla.