You're right. Like investing your entire wealth in a start up electric car company and a start up rocket companyOK. To me that sounds a bit too much of a longshot to assign it much value.
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You're right. Like investing your entire wealth in a start up electric car company and a start up rocket companyOK. To me that sounds a bit too much of a longshot to assign it much value.
I seem to remember the University of London. Doing some work with those newfangled transistor things back in the early 60s. They were wiring them together in ways that mimicked the human brain and were surprised in how much a limited number could do and at a relatively low power for the time. Not sure what happened to the research, or if I remember it correctly. Perhaps we should revisit Asimov’s positronic brain.Karpathy was suggesting that there is a ton of potential gain in just improving computer architecture to be more suitable to the task.
So yes, I think Karpathy would agree with most of what you said.
But I don't think he would say the potential solutions lie only with material science. A vastly more efficient way to "do AI" in silicon could still get us a lot closer to the goal. The reason for this optimism is because the enormous delta between the efficiency of the brain and the (in)efficiency of a GPU cluster suggests that huge gains could still be made with architecture alone.
I guess you could also make the argument that Karpathy is not a computer architecture guy. So what does he know?
I'm a bit confused, so maybe someone can help me out here.
I was under the impression that for a while now all Model Ys delivered in (western) Europe were being built in Berlin. My daily observation during my commute in The Netherlands of trailers full of Model Ys going from east (Germany) to west (The Netherlands, Belgium, UK) supported this thesis. However, the last few weeks I've been seeing the opposite: trailers full of Model Ys going from west (the harbors of Rotterdam or Zeebrugge) to east (Germany, Denmark, maybe even Scandinavia).
The only conclusion I can draw: Shanghai is still exporting Model Ys to western Europe. Is this a new development or was I mistaken and have they been doing this all along?
I think so too. It's just a justification that says Dojo is worth doing.OK. To me that sounds a bit too much of a longshot to assign it much value.
Not sure I follow the correlation. Because Musk very successfully built those two companies in the past, every opportunity within Tesla, however far from a concrete commercial application, should be valued at its highest potential?You're right. Like investing your entire wealth in a start up electric car company and a start up rocket company
Never say never. A software ecosystem can be built out rather quickly if Dojo performance leapfrogs NVIDIA. One thing I do know is that when there is an opportunity, the software industry is really good at filling the void.Dojo is never going to beat Nvidia across a wide suite of applications. It lacks the software ecosystem to be a general purpose solution. It’s
not going to be the “undisputed leader in AI hardware”. If all it ever does is be more efficient at FSD training than Nvidia it would be a huge win for Tesla.
I was under the impression that China exports the Model 3 to Europe, Makes sense Tesla China would send some Model Ys too to soak up Shanghai production capacity. Import taxes from China are low now, though the EU is making noises about imposing higher import tariffs from China to defend against the Chinese automakers.I'm a bit confused, so maybe someone can help me out here.
I was under the impression that for a while now all Model Ys delivered in (western) Europe were being built in Berlin. My daily observation during my commute in The Netherlands of trailers full of Model Ys going from east (Germany) to west (The Netherlands, Belgium, UK) supported this thesis. However, the last few weeks I've been seeing the opposite: trailers full of Model Ys going from west (the harbors of Rotterdam or Zeebrugge) to east (Germany, Denmark, maybe even Scandinavia).
The only conclusion I can draw: Shanghai is still exporting Model Ys to western Europe. Is this a new development or was I mistaken and have they been doing this all along?
Did I miss where he said ‘highest potential’? No, I did not. So you added that to change the context. Now look who’s playing the facts vs FUD game after pointing fingers.Not sure I follow the correlation. Because Musk very successfully built those two companies in the past, every opportunity within Tesla, however far from a concrete commercial application, should be valued at its highest potential?
You called it a long shot. There's your correlationNot sure I follow the correlation. Because Musk very successfully built those two companies in the past, every opportunity within Tesla, however far from a concrete commercial application, should be valued at its highest potential?
Adam Jonas merely spoke publicly about the approx. delivery numbers that everyone from Troy to Vin counters, to weekly China insurance data watchers are acutely aware of. The delivery numbers are going to be much closer to 425K than 475K because the high number has been stale for months and not corrected as data came in. The importance of the Jonas note is that he's saying that even at this reduced number, TSLA is worth $320 price target, based upon expectations of future profits, adjusted downward to create a present value.
From a FSD perspective I don't worry about the training compute. Somehow this will get solved as the hardware is not fixed.Never say never. A software ecosystem can be built out rather quickly if Dojo performance leapfrogs NVIDIA. One thing I do know is that when there is an opportunity, the software industry is really good at filling the void.
But I think you are right overall. As you said, "If all it ever does is be more efficient at FSD training than Nvidia it would be a huge win for Tesla."
That’s an excellent point of juxtaposition.The justification for lowering car prices was affordability.
Frankly $12,000 for FSD 12.3.2 beta is unaffordable to the masses.
Waiting to see how this gets implemented.
When you're cutting & pasting a CNBC article into this forum and not admitting it, you know your strategy needs a tune-upGee I wonder why they don’t share anymore. View attachment 1032981
Sounds like made up numbers when Elon said compute is no longer a constraint, but you are here saying they need 90% more chips.Dojo is never going to beat Nvidia across a wide suite of applications. It lacks the software ecosystem to be a general purpose solution. It’s
not going to be the “undisputed leader in AI hardware”. If all it ever does is be more efficient at FSD training than Nvidia it would be a huge win for Tesla.
Tesla has just barely managed to cross the minimum compute threshold for FSD. They still need to increase data and compute by another order of magnitude. Musk’s instructions to offer free FSD trials has as much to do with data as increasing take rate.
Training for full autonomy will probably require on the order of a million chips. At $30k per H100, that is $30 billion in NVDA chips. Now figure in the power required at about 500w per chip.
Each D1 chip probably costs Tesla about $5k and consumes half the power. Dojo will save Tesla tens of billions.
ouch. was literally wondering what the "2 specs it will take 3-5 years to catch up on" Would you prefer a direct link?When you're cutting & pasting a CNBC article into this forum and not admitting it, you know your strategy needs a tune-up
Just go to any car loan calculator. You will see that, over a 5yr loan, the payments for an extra $12,000 borrowed are about $200/month if the interest rate is 6%. (figures are approximate)The justification for lowering car prices was affordability.
Frankly $12,000 for FSD 12.3.2 beta is unaffordable to the masses.
Waiting to see how this gets implemented.
Did I miss where he said ‘highest potential’? No, I did not. So you added that to change the context. Now look who’s playing the facts vs FUD game after pointing fingers.
Let me help you understand the correlation. Ignore, downplay, laugh at a thought, an idea, a plan coming from Elon/Tesla at your own investment/trading/options risk.
No, not all of them come to fruition. That’s a fact. But most are realized eventually and are game changers whether people see/acknowledge/understand it in the moment or not. That’s a fact.