Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

I'd suggest folks thinking "RT NEXT WEEK" spend some time reading the threads from users in the FSD forum- you'll see plenty of examples from folks, including the ones who agree 12.3 is a significant improvement, of it still doing outright and unsafe stuff. Myself included.

Open request for anyone, especially @Knightshade whom I respect deeply, that has video of anything FSD 12.3.3 (or whatever build is latest) does that is considered unsafe to post a link and tag me please. So far, I've yet to see any conclusive evidence and I'm looking diligently. The only known limitations I've seen so far is that it does not respect or handle road closed signs and I suspect not active school zones or advisory (temp) speed limits.

For folks that don't know me I used to be the Autopilot PM at Tesla and am super excited to finally see my FSD baby grow up! until then, I'll be meticulously cleaning the inside of a massive windshield.

 

[wtlloyd]

All this talk...the place we stand on today is we can see multiple instances of maverick corporate managers "getting it" and striking out for the promised land of BEVs and AI self driving. OEMs proclaim entire new vehicle programs, a pivot, multiple new models.
And then we watch as they are pulled up short, after much shouting and exclaiming of the new direction, new products, new vision for the future. Corporate boards shut them down after they are given enough rope to achieve their first level of failure, and return to their standard of slow and graduated introduction of model changes, although in the promised direction of change.
What these OEMs, these companies do not have, cannot have, is a natural force of determination and will that is Elon Musk. It is not the fault of the ones who get it and try, but are cut down at the first opportunity. They lack the direct control of the company that is vital to be sure the push to succeed does not end before the resources to do so are emptied. Only a company that is willing to put everything on their bet for the future can hope to win.
I don't like glorifying individuals, Tesla is after all 140,000 people currently, not one man. But it is that key man that refuses to relent that makes all the difference.
So, FUD and competition is coming, yes, but truly in this case, one thing is not like the other.

 

[Discoducky]

@Discoducky Hold the phone, did I read this correctly? This year? I agree FSD will march through 9s in a jiffy now that it is not compute constrained. However, the skeptics would point to "pending regulatory approval" and all that jazz. Could you expound upon your thoughts a bit as to how we get around these hurdles in order that the first commercial robotaxi ride occurs in 2024? Thank you for all your FSD insight recently.

To be clear, but blunt, what I'm talking about is when Tesla starts with commercial robotaxi rides (which will happen in waves).

I'm assuming wave 1 happens with an in-car supervising driver but is picking up paying passengers. I'd expect this to happen this year **IF** we continue to see builds every ~2 weeks. Obviously there's more detail there, but happy to continue in the FSD appropriate thread. I add this here to be useful for this particular thread on the weekend.

 

[phoggy123]

So this seems like a well timed hit piece from a once respected news outlet. Appears to be Australia, I looked at the US version and it's a different set of stories for tonight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774235225242935615

 

[DarkandStormy]

So this seems like a well timed hit piece from a once respected news outlet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774235225242935615

It's 60 Minutes Australia...?

 

[insaneoctane]

Thanks to the several replies on FSD commoditization. While Tesla's current fleet is clearly untouchable ATM, a competitor doesn't need 6M vehicles to create their FSD, rather, per Elon's comments, they need around 1M quality video clips to feed a NN before it starts to "work". A serious competitor could get that in less than years. I think we'll see some companies that are fantastic at copying Tesla look to do this. IMO, anybody that tries to copy Tesla and is willing to release said product to the public would be irresponsible and dangerous. Tesla's safety and quality statistics of FSD will be the differentiator in the presence of copy cats. While the 6M vehicle fleet isn't necessary to create a demonstratable product, IMO, it's the key to feeding the training data sufficiently to make the product safe and truly valuable.

 

[GOVA]

It's 60 Minutes Australia...?

yep

 

[Stormy24]

yep

That’s ok then nobody will see it.

 

[phoggy123]

That’s ok then nobody will see it.

Good catch, I just looked at 60 minutes twitter and they have a completely different story for tonight. I didn't see the Australia in the corner.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

FSD discussion is like a fish bowl with all the cats watching.

Food for thought; and virtually ignored.

Almost every Tesla, regardless of model, has cameras strategically located and onboard computers to make the software “FSD” actually function in the wild beyond a lab. Bottom line hardware in the wild waiting for software from the lab to be united as one.

Most legacy auto manufacturers have dozens of vehicles that may or may not have cameras; questionable locations in regards to FSD. Depending on software, have they been developing robust computers on board?

Much of the hardware development is as or more important than the software.

Just like conversion from fossil fuel to electric ~ until you are all in; your all out. Bottom line until legacy auto manufacturers commit to full on FSD; the moat wi remain as it has been. Think Toyota and their statement years ago and going electric; think GM and their original EV. Think

Cheers

 

[unk45]

Not sure how valuable estimates are if they change all the time as new information comes out, why not just wait on Tesla releasing the figures?

Answer: Income depends on clicks etc. Thus he must have constant updates. That does have a useful role, especially for those who do not follow all the news changes data by day. I personally don't pay any attention to those, but I understand the value to many people.

 

[Jim Holder]

This is my thinking, too.

Yesterday I volunteered at a delivery center giving 12.3.1 demo drives in a 2024 Model S to people picking up new vehicles. People are very impressed (even I was impressed as it was my first experience with vision-only auto park). Car worked very safely on every drive and parking session, no panic/unsafe moments in a 8 min round-trip drive in moderate traffic ranging from 25 mph-45 mph streets and parking lots with one round-about. One gentleman, who got his first EV, a CT, video recorded the drive and was very impressed. Another couple, who I don't think ever considered purchasing/subscribing to FSD, were going to go home and give it serious thought/discussion. Everyone had a "huh" moment, like, "Huh, this is something I've never experienced and didn't know existed." Moreover, only one person knew they were getting a 30-day free trial of FSD. The guy with the CT is bummed he isn't able to get it--who knows, maybe he'll buy another Tesla with FSD now if he was impressed enough. At least he'll be thinking about it, and I'd bet $100 he will buy/subscribe to it once FSD is enabled on CT.

Of the 20 or so people I chatted with buying their first Tesla, all had questions about very basic things like preconditioning the battery, premium connectivity, home charging, supercharging and much more. We really do live in a bubble here on TMC with regard to all the features and capabilities of Teslas that we know about. The vast majority of people have no clue, even those who are purchasing right now.

The new FSD v12 is crazy even for me. It really is so so much better, and a driverless future feels much more real now. I'm with Cliff Harris in my thinking that this can't be easily replicated. Maybe there is another company that is doing what Tesla is doing, but not here in the U.S. No other U.S. company has this kind of data from random people employing hardware/software across the globe in diverse and challenging real-world scenarios. Tesla is in a class all by itself. If we got news of even one legacy auto company licensing FSD tech, the stock would rip, IMHO.

Thanks for the write up and for helping out with deliveries!

I’m curious, did you use a delivery center Tesla car for the demo or the customer’s new car? I’m asking because I’m curious how calibration worked if it was the new car as it can take 30-60 minutes and lots of driving to even be ready to use FSD.

 

[Tony73]

Thanks to the several replies on FSD commoditization. While Tesla's current fleet is clearly untouchable ATM, a competitor doesn't need 6M vehicles to create their FSD, rather, per Elon's comments, they need around 1M quality video clips to feed a NN before it starts to "work". A serious competitor could get that in less than years. I think we'll see some companies that are fantastic at copying Tesla look to do this. IMO, anybody that tries to copy Tesla and is willing to release said product to the public would be irresponsible and dangerous. Tesla's safety and quality statistics of FSD will be the differentiator in the presence of copy cats. While the 6M vehicle fleet isn't necessary to create a demonstratable product, IMO, it's the key to feeding the training data sufficiently to make the product safe and truly valuable.

They ‘re not even set up to collect the data. A serious competitor could collect a million video clips one year after reaching the starting line. They are all several years from that.

 

[Musskiah]

To be clear, but blunt, what I'm talking about is when Tesla starts with commercial robotaxi rides (which will happen in waves).

I'm assuming wave 1 happens with an in-car supervising driver but is picking up paying passengers. I'd expect this to happen this year **IF** we continue to see builds every ~2 weeks. Obviously there's more detail there, but happy to continue in the FSD appropriate thread. I add this here to be useful for this particular thread on the weekend.

Should you feel compelled to continue sometime, I cued you up on this forum "V12.x (End to End AI)" FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

Gracias

 

[Drumheller]

So this seems like a well timed hit piece from a once respected news outlet. Appears to be Australia, I looked at the US version and it's a different set of stories for tonight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774235225242935615

I don't know anyone under the age of 70 that watches 60 minutes.

 

[jerry33]

I don't know anyone under the age of 70 that watches 60 minutes.

I don't watch it and I'm over 70.

 

[GhostSkater]

are they losing money on each of these?

They openly said they are losing money on them to compete with Tesla

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774488305708802462

Autopark not on USS

 

[hobbes]

Not sure how valuable estimates are if they change all the time as new information comes out, why not just wait on Tesla releasing the figures?

Like for the same reason we try to find out where stock price is heading ahead of time... Sometimes the two seem to be related.

Just ignore if you´re not interested or don´t trust the source, constant nagging about that doesn´t help anyone.

 

[Discoducky]

Should you feel compelled to continue sometime, I cued you up on this forum "V12.x (End to End AI)" FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

Gracias

I'll answer tech questions in the FSD thread and biz side stuff here.

And remember, no one has solved generalized FSD yet. Waymo's solution isn't scalable as the ROI is well over 10 years assuming they continue to put massive multi-sensor fusion redundancy that requires an entire data center rack in the trunk and still rely on HD maps for ground truth.