Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[uscbucsfan]

We agree almost 100%. I say almost, because I could see a consumer vehicle down the road without the wheel and pedals.

If you only need manual steering for rare low-speed maneuvers that automation can't handle then a game-type controller would work just fine.

On a low-cost, mass selling vehicle...that's so many years in the future, it's not worth considering. Far after FSD is level 5.

 

[GhostSkater]

Some more resumes will be coming into Tesla.......................

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/04/apple-lays-off-over-600-employees-after-shuttering-car-project.html

Please no

 

[DarkandStormy]

That's why I don't ignore you and a few others who provide reasoning or a point of view even if I may disagree. However the people who post that they're selling all their Tesla stock and trash Elon aren't helpful. It's no better than people going on other social media sites to declare to the world that they are quitting said social media site.

Put another way they sound like Michael Scott
View attachment 1035885

 

[Krugerrand]

Its the ambiguity and uncertainty which bothers me. How hard is it to just clarify the situation with a little straight communication?

Really? Come on. It’s MATERIAL to the company and therefore against the law. Give your head a shake and wait for the question to be asked in less than 3 weeks.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

I altered your words to say the obvious and honest point. It really does not make sense to have all of your invested securities wealth tied up in a single security. regardless of an individual company success and prospects some diversification in highly desirable. That need not be a broadly diversified fund or anything like that. It only means that risks can be balanced. With TSLA from day one every prudent investor knew it would be volatile and probably stay that way. We need not blame Elon for anything other than the prime mover fo our success; high volatility comes with the territory.

Some of us who bought during the low points and rode to the peaks are dismayed. Obviously for shareholders higher is better. For those who regard the future and highly likely to be very lucrative still HODL and ignore the volatility.

No doubt most of us who take that view hold Tesla as less than, say, 20% or so of holdings. Even aggressive HODL will rarely have more than half their investible assets in any one security.

The present fear is simply that. Now we see Elon only in negatives and listen to FUD from Reuters et al as if it is true, even when we know there si a <50% chance that it is true. Attributing purchase behavior of Tesla vehicles to Elon's behavior is simply accepting FUD.
That is easy to do when many of us are promoting negativism just because of fear.

It really is depressing that so few of us actually paid attention in the last shareholders meeting. They told us what to expect and now we're terrified that it is what they told us would be happening, all preparing for 2025 and after.

Please, we all need to retain sound judgement, for those who've not endured peaks and valleys in securities, welcome to the real world. For those who weren't around for 2008, or even 1973 and before, these things happen. That is life.

Well, it would appear that diversification is for idiots according to some that should know:

 

[uscbucsfan]

Serious Question: Does FSD now really allows you to eat while it is driving?

I have a feeling that it does, although quite often it asks you to "Apply slight turning force on the wheel."
I assume it is possible to hold a burger with BOTH hands, and when that nagging message pops, you just rub pull the wheel with the edge with your palm?

Yes. The car will bug you more because the camera sees you occupied, but I do it pretty often.

 

[jhm]

That’s an interesting thought. I think it depends on moral dilemma answer.

Better to save people no matter what they drive or better that EVs are pushed in every way possible so there’s people actually left to save?

Well that's quite a way to frame it! You're pushing me to think a little deeper. Thanks.

A few thoughts...
1 Roll out is likely to be model by model. I would expect that FSD would need to be custom calibrated to each model so that it can safely drive that model.

2 Tesla does does not have the compute and staff to adapt FSD to all models at once.

3 if 1 and 2 are correct, then there is a practical need to prioritize some models over others.

4 Well-calibrated FSD improve safety for all, not just the occupants of the FSD vehicle but occupants of other vehicles and pedestrians as well. So the ethics of improving road safety argue for a rapid and well-calibrated deployment in the interest of all who share the road.

5 FSV has been developed and optimized for EVs. Adapting FSD to ICE vehicles may be suboptimal. Arriving at a certain safety threshold for an ICE model may require substantially more cost, compute and engineering talent that porting FSD to another BEV.

6 If 5 is so, the friction of porting to ICE could slow the scale up desirable in proposition 4. Slowed deployment reduces safety benefits for all on the road including pedestrians and occupants of non-FSD vehicles.

7 The cost of porting FSD to a model is likely a substantial investment on the part of the OEM implying multi-year payback. From the perspective of an OEM, does it make sense to make this investment on an ICE model which is at risk of obsolescence within a few years? Probably not. However, some OEMs may entertain the delusion that they will have robust demand for a given ICE model that will last for more than a decade, if only they can secure autonomy tech. Tesla likely does not share that vision of ICE sales persisting out to 2035 or so. This misalignment of time horizons might not be healthy for partnership, creating other frictions that slow the scale up of FSD.

8 Even if Tesla and an OEM are unconcerned about impending ICE obsolescence, deploying FSD to an ICE will likely increase the sales and longevity of that ICE model. This works contrary solving pollution and climate change problems.

9 My basic conclusion is that FSD should be deployed to BEV models first, with priority over ICE. This prioritization seems to make better use of the limited resources for scale up (total road safety), while hastening the obsolescence of ICE (combating pollution and climate change).

By the time autonomy is achieved for all BEV models, will there even be much of an ICE market left?

 

[unk45]

I was at the last shareholder meeting. I certainly paid attention. I still stand by my words. I’ll buy back in when Elon leaves, or when Elon gets a therapist [not Jordan Peeterson or some nut ], or when it’s actually undervalued. I expect door number 3.

1. We’re still in a bubble
2. TSLA is a retail favorite. Once the economy tanks, and it will, it will be capitulation city over here.
3. Profit?

You present your views clearly. Obviously there are many indicators that are negative, including many that cannot be mentioned in this thread. Beyond those there are structural and geography hurdles, including unplanned shipping and manufacturing problems.

The question, perhaps the only serious question, is whether this is temporary or not. That negativity has quite a major contribution from FUD created, distorted and distributed by AI-drven mimics. Those risk are indeed rising.

If you think the previous paragraph will go unchecked then any security is a poor place to be.
If you think there will be recovery built on better AI management and fewer upheavals the stay in.

I understand both sides of that question.
I deplore the blaming of Elon Musk singularly for all of that. He is flawed but many foo us are blaming him for all ills and disregarding his continuing contributions.
Neuralink, SpaceX and Tesla, even The Boring Company and his various AI efforts are all doing things others cannot. Tesla has not stopped.
Our collective problem is that we simply do not understand Twitter/X and blame that for 'the end fo the world is nigh'.

 

[Krugerrand]

Something needs to counter the people posting that they're buying, or you might end up with a view distorted to one side

Like some big names on Twitter posting when Aunt Cathie is buying TSLA but crickets when she talks about selling on stock price spikes much less when they're actually selling.

Absolutely no. What needs to be posted here are FACTS. Facts WITHOUT opinions, suggestive or otherwise.

Investors don’t want opinion couched as facts. They don’t want suggestive tactics leading them to an agenda answer.

Absolutely, ARK sold this or this. ARK bought this or this but without the narrative. Include a link to one of her interviews explaining her position. The rest we can decide for ourselves. We don’t need Cathy is crazy narrative.

Surely you see the difference.

 

[Krugerrand]

Wow

Honestly, listen to yourselves.

You might want to apply that wisdom to yourself and your friends. Hint: you come across as just as ridiculous. Ie., Elon killing the SP when you aren’t optioned correctly, now Elon pumping stock when you aren’t positioned right. When one of you (the king of TA and waves) even has to point it out to you, that’s saying something about the behavior.

So go cast some stones somewhere else first.

 

[unk45]

Well, it would appear that diversification is for idiots according to some that should know:

That is definitely NOT what he said. Generic diversification happens without carefully understanding every single investment one makes. Mr Buffet famously has been an obsessive reader and student of every investment. He never has "put all his eggs in a single basket". He, and his mentors before him, all emphasized very careful decisions. That has meant very rarely selling, but selling quickly if something is wrong. His trick is to know when that happens.

Our should be too. It's hard for me to be too objective about him. I owe him too much of my own financial success. I only have differed from him regarding technological investments where i have been much more comfortable than has he.

Good quote! Out of context, but good!

 

[mrmage]

This is a forum for anyone interested in investing in Tesla, right? If so, anyone's reason for buying and selling shares may be interesting for others, right? Granted, a mere statement that you are selling for example 1000 shares at 165 $ may not be that informative but then the same goes for those who report their purchases, doesn't it? I frequent a lot of forums and don't know of any which is so heavily moderated and where there is so much anger if someone posts the "wrong" thing. As a strong believer in free speech I don't get that. Just scroll on and don't bother about the things that do not interest you.

There's certainly an echo chamber effect. Many with unpopular views end up leaving. It's too bad, because investments are as much about headwinds as tailwinds.

Although I sold off the last of my TSLA stake earlier this year, I would reopen a position if FSD or Teslabot gets close. For now, it makes more sense to hold onto growth stocks with less mercurial CEOs and companies with stronger tailwinds.

For FSD, something like 50k+ miles between interventions and no odd behaviors under diverse driving conditions would be getting close. Although v12 looks promising, it's nowhere near that level of reliability.

 

[Drumheller]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776276255916110186

 

[jhm]

I really wish that ZeroHedge guy would put a shirt on.

 

[wtlloyd]

Serious Question: Does FSD now really allows you to eat while it is driving?

I have a feeling that it does, although quite often it asks you to "Apply slight turning force on the wheel."
I assume it is possible to hold a burger with BOTH hands and when that nagging message pops, you just rub pull the wheel with the edge with your palm?

I think this is also a game-changing thing, because now you can buy a bag of food and drag items out with BOTH hands, unlike previously that you have to hold the wheel with one hand, and the other hand blindly grab items out.

You can even eat box food, one hand hold the box and the other the fork.

Ah.... maybe you don't need this at all. When you do super charging on a long trip, you have plenty of time eating with both hands.

All our European members' heads just exploded.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I have a new view on this Robo-Rumor.

If we look at the goal of 1,000 miles/critical disengagements (only half way there today per public data), I've often considered it this is impossible with the Humans involved. How many disengagements would have been just fine - just a little hesitation which is also quite human. But nerve-racking for the rider. Furthermore, does Tesla even know about those FSD maneuvers that made it only because the human had nerves of steel? Therefore, I consider humans a risk factor down the road.

Something tells me there's STILL a decision to be made that is highly dependent on future data. There may even be a Go/No-Go milestone in some plan (especially production planning). And yet in another scenario, Tesla just may have hit that Go/No-Go decision.

I could go on for pages on why this move could be needed, is logical, efficient, but it's mostly been said already so I'll spare you. I'm game either way, and saw the rumor as quite bullish on FSD. I'm taking the rumor as partially true, time independent.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Although I sold off the last of my TSLA stake earlier this year, I would reopen a position if FSD or Teslabot gets close.

By the time you achieve that level of comfort, I suspect it will be too late to "reopen" that position - at least at a SP level you consider to be reasonable at that time. Then again, maybe you have insight that others don't. Then again, maybe you only think you do. As with all things investing - time will tell.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Tesla is not building a plant in Mexico, clearing out space in Austin/Berlin and Shanghai, and planning a plant in India to make a "robo taxi".

 

[Musskiah]

The fastest way to transition the world to sustainable transport (mission) is to maximize the utility of each vehicle produced. Individual vehicles are only utilized a small fraction of the time, and sit idle the vast majority of the time, hence robotaxis will move us away from fossil fuels more rapidly than cheap Teslas. There is also much more value in a robotaxi than a cheap Tesla because of it's much greater utility. Therefore, this decision to go all robotaxi, if true, would maximize Tesla's FCF and earnings in addition to weaning us off our oil addiction... at Tesla speed.

 

[Curt Renz]

Here's a line from the Reuters article claiming that plans have been scrapped for a Model 2.

"Two sources said they learned of Tesla's decision to scrap the Model 2 in a meeting attended by scores of employees, with one of them saying the gathering happened in late February."

Late February? Scores of employees? It would be amazing that such a decision would not have been leaked before today. In any event, plans could have changed since then.