Too late.Please don’t offer me “investing" advice. Not interested.
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Too late.Please don’t offer me “investing" advice. Not interested.
I think this is a dangerous mindset. AI is progressing on a classic exponential curve. People type that word a lot, and people think they know hwat that means, but its REALLY hard for humans to appreciate how fast progress happens towards the end. And I think we see that now in FSD V12. Here is a handy representation:
View attachment 1036739
I think Tesla's FSD progress will seem fast, then very quickly extremely fast, then seem almost instantaneous. Bonus points for long term investors if the final run-up happens over a weekend.
It is risky. Investors typically don't like risk. I sure hope we get valuable and honest perspective and clarity on this subject during the Q1 conference call...I agree going all in on the RT would be a risky move since FSD isn't solved yet, but we do know it's what Elon strongly wanted to do a few years ago thanks to the Isaacson biography. The Gen3 consumer car was only planned because Lars and Franz convinced Elon to reluctantly change his mind.
Maybe the rapid progress of FSD lately has convinced Elon to go back on that decision? While risky and probably not a wise course of action, we must also admit it is a possibility.
Well, the reason that it is being discussed is because everyone and their dog is publishing that it’s being cancelled. It will be interesting to see how tesla plays these cards. They can’t really say either way but also need to be positive enough to instill some confidence.The difference between making a RT and a consumer Model 2 will not be significant. They are designed to be built simultaneously on the same line. Tesla will almost certainly (99.99999% probability) do both. But if FSD is solved and approved by regulators by the time it comes out (it won't be in general but may be in VERY limited locales) then Tesla may prioritize production of the RT first. That will take a few days of production (seriously) until that limited market is saturated, then they will proceed with consumer vehicles.
Over time, more regions will get approval and Tesla will prioritize RT over consumer vehicles when they can, but it will be quite awhile before all of the production capacity could be consumed by Robotaxis alone.
Tesla is not stupid. They will make both. Not even sure why we or anyone else is even considering this, it's silly.
Please watch the animation I posted. This is the whole point. Exponential growth is precisely this phenomena. By the time you realize 'oh its going faster now', its whizzed right past you.They'll get there, but it isn't imminent.
I don't see how a Robotaxi can be a compact car. I barely fit in a Model 3, and it's difficult for the old and out of shape to get into and out of. There is no way a robotaxi for all can be based on a compact model.Well, the reason that it is being discussed is because everyone and their dog is publishing that it’s being cancelled. It will be interesting to see how tesla plays these cards. They can’t really say either way but also need to be positive enough to instill some confidence.
Neighbour from across the street had to run over yesterday while I was in the driveway and tell me to sell our car while it was still worth something. Elon cancelled all new cars and the company is going bankrupt. No. I’m not kidding.
I agree going all in on the RT would be a risky move since FSD isn't solved yet, but we do know it's what Elon strongly wanted to do a few years ago thanks to the Isaacson biography. The Gen3 consumer car was only planned because Lars and Franz convinced Elon to reluctantly change his mind.
Maybe the rapid progress of FSD lately has convinced Elon to go back on that decision? While risky and probably not a wise course of action, we must also admit it is a possibility.
I also think people are dreaming if they think existing consumer owned X/S/3/Y can be put into the robotaxi fleet. How would you ever keep passengers from grabbing the wheel/yoke and mashing the go pedal?I don't see how a Robotaxi can be a compact car. I barely fit in a Model 3, and it's difficult for the old and out of shape to get into and out of. There is no way a robotaxi for all can be based on a compact model.
How does Waymo do it with their vehicles?I also think people are dreaming if they think existing consumer owned X/S/3/Y can be put into the robotaxi fleet. How would you ever keep passengers from grabbing the wheel/yoke and mashing the go pedal?
Please watch the animation I posted. This is the whole point. Exponential growth is precisely this phenomena. By the time you realize 'oh its going faster now', its whizzed right past you.
Yeah, the media publishes a lot of nonsense. That will probably never change.Well, the reason that it is being discussed is because everyone and their dog is publishing that it’s being cancelled. It will be interesting to see how tesla plays these cards. They can’t really say either way but also need to be positive enough to instill some confidence.
Neighbour from across the street had to run over yesterday while I was in the driveway and tell me to sell our car while it was still worth something. Elon cancelled all new cars and the company is going bankrupt. No. I’m not kidding.
I heard that Waymo puts a sign inside the car telling passengers not to do that. I guess it's working more or less.I also think people are dreaming if they think existing consumer owned X/S/3/Y can be put into the robotaxi fleet. How would you ever keep passengers from grabbing the wheel/yoke and mashing the go pedal?
True, so long as 'you' understand that THE application are #1 is 'the machine that build this machine' and #2 probably is several different applications including FSD and Optimus.Most of it in the future. If you don't believe Elon when he says Tesla is an AI & Robotics company then you should not own the stock.
I know a good bankruptcy attorney based near you. You might be interested in them if you follow your 'Not intersted' line a while longer.Please don’t offer me “investing" advice. Not interested.
I've never been in a Waymo, but don't they only allow access to the back seat and passengers have no access to the driver seat?I heard that Waymo puts a sign inside the car telling passengers not to do that. I guess it's working more or less.
I agree that there are plenty of problems with the current fleet participating in a robotaxi network. I think it will happen to some degree but there will be limitations and eventually, the specialized robotaxi vehicles will dominate.
I also think people are dreaming if they think existing consumer owned X/S/3/Y can be put into the robotaxi fleet. How would you ever keep passengers from grabbing the wheel/yoke and mashing the go pedal?
So why are you here? This is a thread for investors - are you one?