Looks like a rumor to me.
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Looks like a rumor to me.
Maybe everything will cool down a little by Monday (hopefully)...Monday is going to be ugly for risk assets.
Ashok said, "This is the beginning of the end." I don't know about you, but it definitely perked my ears up.I get some people want ot trust Musk's bullishness, but I'm not because he's been bullish many times before. Ashok and other employees are more bullish and that's great, but that doesn't give real insight on timelines. If Ashok said he expects it to be robotaxi by 2025 or something, my ears would definitely perk up.
6. Neither of the two vehicles priced under $50,000 fits their needs
7. No home charger & range on 3 or Y isn't sufficient for their weekly total commute (e.g., need 3 supercharger visits of 20min or more)
8. Don't want to support Elon based on his words and actions
9. Belief that EVs are inferior / expensive / need battery replacements from media and politicians
Mostly I think that Tesla is struggling to go from Early Adopters to Late Adopters. It's a pretty classic stage in technology adoption where the next group of buyers have different decision making criteria from the Early Adopters. Instead of being motivated by the potential benefits and accepting the trade offs, the Late Adopters tend to want to make the "right" decision and are less willing to accept unknown or unfamiliar risks.
Tesla has plenty of ways to address late adopters. For example they could explain the almost zero routine maintenance, low battery degradation after 100k miles, long powertrain warranty, etc.
I'm not saying Tesla will definitely want to own the whole fleet. But I believe they could pull it off if that's what they decide.Have you priced the entire robotaxi fleet? Even at just $20,000 per car, 10 million cars per year is $200 billion dollars in capex to buy the whole fleet. That's every year. Tesla doesn't have that kind of capital. They need to sell enough robotaxis to pay for their portion of the fleet. This also mitigates the Monopoly and competition concerns which will undoubtedly arise.
I guess because I don't post "Elon is our savior" every day I'm here for dishonest reasons?
Lol
Well, I just tried my left turn for the third time on 12.4 and it failed. But 2 of 3 is still better than the 100% failure rate on 12.3.This is what I'm interest in most....not 12.4's absolute performance, but the rate of progress of 12.4 vs 12.3 which has been praised so well....I'll keep reading for these opinions.
If robotaxi works, Tesla can raise the cash to do whatever it takes. Tesla could do another public offering at $3000 per share.
Do you mean 12.3.4? Please be accurate, this will save a lot of confusion in the future when looking back on this archive. TIA.time on 12.4 and
Yeah, I don't think so. Have you run the numbers? Even at $3,000 per share and $18,000 per robo taxi, building 10 million robotaxis per year would result in dilution of about 60 million shares per year. Are you sure Tesla wants to do that? Further, are you sure that shareholders would want that?
Ashok said, "This is the beginning of the end." I don't know about you, but it definitely perked my ears up.
And you have to admit, Musk's bullishness is different this time. Elon appears to be betting the whole company on full autonomy. Spare no expense.
He hasn't done anything like that before. Before, he would say, "I think it's going to happen this year." Now he is saying, "Spend billions to make this happen tomorrow."
No, I haven't run the numbers. I pulled $3,000 out of thin air. If $3,000 per share isn't enough, they might go for $5,000. Or $10,000.Yeah, I don't think so. Have you run the numbers? Even at $3,000 per share and $18,000 per robo taxi, building 10 million robotaxis per year would result in dilution of about 60 million shares per year. Are you sure Tesla wants to do that? Further, are you sure that shareholders would want that?
Yes. 12.3.4. Sorry.Do you mean 12.3.4? Please be accurate, this will save a lot of confusion in the future when looking back on this archive. TIA.
The ghost in the machine...?Well, I just tried my left turn for the third time on 12.4 and it failed. But 2 of 3 is still better than the 100% failure rate on 12.3.
The frustrating thing is that this is so much easier than Chuck's unprotected left. All it has to do is get into the turn lane. But the car is scared of this particular lane. It's like the car thinks that lane is haunted.
I'm not saying Tesla will definitely want to own the whole fleet. But I believe they could pull it off if that's what they decide.
If robotaxi works, Tesla can raise the cash to do whatever it takes. Tesla could do another public offering at $3000 per share.
Also, Tesla can't snap its fingers and make 10 million cars appear. It would take a few years to ramp up. In that time, Tesla would be generating huge revenue on the robotaxi vehicles it can produce. The fleet would be a cash machine that keeps building and building each year, helping to fund an even larger fleet.
It could be done.
ChatGPT and other AI systems make use of reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF) where people can indicate when the system did something wrong to fine-tune future behaviors to avoid the mistakes. Video data collected from Tesla fleet actively using FSD is easily annotated for when Autopilot was engaged and when the driver disengaged and controlling.In fact, you do NOT want people using FSD when they are generating training data
Tesla could finance a substantial chunk of the fleet given the relatively straightforward business of TaaS and, a guess here, there may be tax strategies that add offer some advantages.Indeed, for several years I've held that Tesla will be able to purchase robotaxis in the same proportion as the gross margin on the entire vehicle program. IE: if the hardware has a 30% GM then Tesla will be able to purchase about 30% of the fleet production. This self-funding business model is the way Tesla has always conducted business.