Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Hope the following makes an interesting story for you all.
About the difference PhD mathematicians can make for Tesla (AI?) and as a result for TSLA.

In the past I have helped someone on a master thesis at the University of Technology in Delft.
A little engineering background (don’t get scared now):
Many engineering problems (maybe also AI solving, I would be interested to know, see the following story) result in having to numerically integrate differential equations and solve n equations with n unknowns with a computer.,
Engineering students learn how to solve that during their course in numerical analysis.
A well-known universal numerical integration method that is being taught is the Runge-Kutta method.

I helped a master student to solve an engineering problem on a personal computer, the personal computer being much to the chagrin of his professor.
‘There is a big Amdahl-computer of the university that can be used, why use such a small plaything?’, the professor said.
The answer of the master student involved: ‘Because they are the future.’
And if he could pull this off, he would have a predicting model.
Well, after having programmed the personal computer it was set to work.
A few hours later, we stopped the computer and analysed where it was.
It appeared that for it to finish one run, it would take a couple of million years to complete…:eek:
Looking on the internet, we found someone in the USA that for his PhD-thesis had tried something comparable: he had the same problems, but on a supercomputer. :eek::eek::eek:
Clearly Runge-Kutta was not the right method.

After several futile attempts with variations of the used method, we went to consult a professor in the mathematics department of the university.
He promised to look into it and we could come back in a few weeks.
When we came back, he told us we had a problem of stiff differential equations at hand. Ehhh, what?? o_Oo_O
A small variation of a variable in one equation resulted in a huge variation in another equation, making the set very unstable to solve.
In order to solve this type of differential equations, he explained that a so-called implicit method had to be used.

So, we went to the university library and got hold of the book the mathematics professor had told us about.
We reprogrammed the computer using an implicit method, pressed run and… after half an hour we had predicting results.
At the time the model being able to predict proved to be ground-breaking.

The experience taught me the importance of having access to PhD level people in an organization like Tesla, SpaceX, Google, etc.
They can make THE difference for us as investors.
I am very happy that Tesla has proven to be a huge magnet for the most talented people in the world.
And that, with their CEO showing the proverbial example, these most talented people work unrelentlessly to get things done.
 
We need to wait and see what is revealed on 8/8, including any details of business plans that might be revealed.

it is clear to me that adding a wheel with driver feedback adds some cost of a Robotaxi, but there may be compensating additional costs. So a Robotaxi is a specialised vehicle to some extent.

it isn't clear how much of the Robotaxi fleet Tesla intends to own, private investors or corporations might purchase a fleet of Robotaxis to operate in the Tesla network. That is one model, as is Tesla owning the Robotaxi. Additional models are private ownership of Model S/X3/Y and Tesla also owning some of those vehicles.

Initially Tesla might prefer to sell Robotaxis to private owners rather than own them outright, but it will probably be a mix.

I expect the initial line at Austin to produce around 5,000 Robotaxis per week, I also think that a Robotaxi might be the first Gen3 vehicle produced in Mexico and Berlin. I can see Tesla might be at a run rate of around 1 Million Robotaxis per year in 3-5 years time. But at that time I also expect them to be producing a number of additional Gen3 vehicles, a lot more Megapacks and be earning some income from the fleet of Robotaxis.

Once they get to a certain fleet size, the Robotaxi fleet itself pays for fleet expansion.

it has always been clear to me that the Gen3 product ramps will be steep, the next growth wave will be a big wave. Elon typically thinks as big as he can afford to think.
Purely in terms of financeability, Tesla would be better off starting robotaxi with a steering wheel installed. It would provide downside protection to lenders in the event that Tesla goes broke as the lenders would be able to sell the vehicles to mitigate any losses.

Unless there is another way for "no steering wheel" robotaxis to operate without Tesla running the fleet, lenders or other investors would be purely reliant on Tesla (or whoever purchased Tesla) continuing to be able to generate value from the asset, and if Tesla stopped operating the fleet it the vehicles would only be worth scrap value. Or to put it another way, there is a single point of failure. Obviously given Tesla's fortress balance sheet Tesla defaulting is highly unlikely but bankers put a lot of focus on these events when lending.
 
I had not seen this posted here. KBB estimates of Q1 US EV sales by brand and model.

Interesting that the Cybertruck by itself already outsold Lucid and it should surpass the Rivian R1T in Q2.

Interesting, the reduction in 3 sales in the US (minus 24k vehicles YoY) explains over half of the reduction in Q1 YoY deliveries.
1713085967328.png
 
You need to take into account fast charging vs. slow, because revenue per time is much different..
Sure, but the charging stations are, as far as I know, fast charging. Then to really know you would need to know occupancy ratio or whatever that is called and pricing. But this was just to show that the assumption from the quoted report that Tesla only has 6% of global charging revenue doesn't strike me as unreasonable for Sweden, at least. Most Tesla owners I know have home charging possibilities and only use superchargers occasionally, in connection with long trips. Which is a good thing, otherwise it would be impossible to find an unoccupied supercharger...
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: hobbes
Interesting, the reduction in 3 sales in the US (minus 24k vehicles YoY) explains over half of the reduction in Q1 YoY deliveries.
View attachment 1038452
Very interesting.
Bullish me wants to attribuite this to a slow highland ramp up, so just a blip in the year. I don't care too much about S and X, but I'm happy about the Y growing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: primedive and Mengy
Interesting, the reduction in 3 sales in the US (minus 24k vehicles YoY) explains over half of the reduction in Q1 YoY deliveries.
View attachment 1038452
Very predictable in my opinion as the price for a Model 3 effectively jumped 15%-20% with the loss of the Federal Tax Credit. I wish Tesla would pull out all stops to make the Model 3 qualify again,
 
Very predictable in my opinion as the price for a Model 3 effectively jumped 15%-20% with the loss of the Federal Tax Credit. I wish Tesla would pull out all stops to make the Model 3 qualify again,


what stops? There's no qualifying batteries... 2170s are all going to Y, and 4680 isn't ramped to where they've got enough beyond CT needs to go into those Ys and free up 2170s. IDEALLY 4680 solves this problem by next year (freeing 2170s from Ys) but then it sure looks like that was the previous hope and scaling has just been slower than expected.

That said it seems pretty clear the primary issue was lack of 3 production in Fremont, rather than lack of IRA credit- as there's lots of folks in the highland waiting room thread who ordered despite no credit and are still waiting months later for a car.

All that aside, a bigger concern to me is even if you added all those 24k cars back in, deliveries in Q1 are still down YoY from last Q1.
 
Yep, the tone from Tesla has changed, they are moving forward with FSD and RT's physically now. Revealing the RT in four months, dropping sub prices on FSD, moving FSD out of beta and releasing it to everyone, dropping prices and margins on cars to sell as many as possible in order to widen the market for FSD customers.

Sure Elon has been "crying wolf" on FSD for a long time now, but Ashok's tweet should not be taken lightly. The Robotaxi's are coming, like for real this time.

I love your confidence and hope you are correct. However, when I use FSD 12.3.3 I always come away thinking, sure this is cool tech but it’s nowhere close to being RT ready, if ever.

I would need to see big improvements over the next few software versions to even begin thinking RTs are going to happen.

For the people that seem to be very confident that RTs are happing soon, what gives you that confidence? Are your FSD drives error free, or close to being error free?

In addition, even at $100 per month I don’t think most people would consider it worth it. However, I would pay something to simply have ALC for roadtripping. But not $100 per month.
 
Who would ever agree to finance tesla by buying RT that could be osborned tomorrow?
Almost every finance souse. Respectable ones all look to the borrower’s/lessee’s credit first, only peripherally at the collateral. More to the point the average US loan-to-value for mass market vehicles averages >100% of vehicle MSRP. That happens because of taxes, dealer added options and dealer markup on finance. Sadly, publicly disclosed data often shows lower numbers, but captive finance and large commercial finance do have that data. Tge result is that with vanishingly rare exceptions buyers are ‘upside down’ for at least two years in the formerly typical 60 month loan. Longer tenors make it worse. Buying anything from a dealer makes it worse, extended warranties make it worse.

In that world, absolutely, collateral is not a major factor. Securitized portfolios, by the way, only include the better credit, as a general rule, and anyway there are ‘collateral substitution’ clauses that make lenders take back bad credits and substituem goos ones. That is how poor quality achieves AAA ratings.

Osborning? They could not care less!
 
Tesla now putting up a South American offensive in Chile while also penetrating new markets like India.

Meanwhile, Elon is putting up his fight in Brazil; the dude sure does know how to compete on multiple levels simultaneously. I give him a lot of credit. He gives them a ton of fodder. Never a dull moment in this saga...
After the Millei Musk lovefest forget about Brazil for some time. Ain’t gonna happen now! Current proposal is to expulse Starlink from Brazil.
Not: this is NOT a political post. I am reporting events NOT expressing my views.
 
I love your confidence and hope you are correct. However, when I use FSD 12.3.3 I always come away thinking, sure this is cool tech but it’s nowhere close to being RT ready, if ever.

I would need to see big improvements over the next few software versions to even begin thinking RTs are going to happen.

For the people that seem to be very confident that RTs are happing soon, what gives you that confidence? Are your FSD drives error free, or close to being error free?

See I come away from v12.3.3 drives feeling its much closer to L5 than most people think it is.

It navigates and stays in its lane very competently for me like 99% of the time, my largest gripes with FSD today are extreme edge cases and the speed it chooses from time to time. Like there is one roundabout near me where FSD fails when approaching it from the north, but it nails it from every other direction, and it navigates four other roundabouts near me perfectly. Also sometimes for me FSD drives like a cautious grandma, meaning it chooses to drive a bit under the speed limit even though I have chosen 5+mph over in the options and the road is fairly straight and easy.

The speed issue is probably easy to train out, they just need to tune it more aggressively with regards to the speed limit.

For RT's they also need to train end point autonomy more, meaning navigating parking lots at the start and parking to disembark at the destination, that sort of stuff.

But it's flawless for me most of the time. I've had many intervention free rides with it in the past two weeks, and most of my disengagements have been more as courtesies to drivers around me than actual issues, meaning it was taking too long to get through an intersection or something like that. Not that it wouldn't have done it, just that I wanted it to proceed faster.

All of this is doable IMHO, none of the issues I have with FSD today seem insurmountable given the tools and architecture they have currently. I feel its just a matter of time, and not relatively much time, until we hit something incredibly close to L5. In fact I think, IMHO, they might actually get to L5 sometime next year. I think they are that close.
 
Are your FSD drives error free, or close to being error free?
In the sections where I drive here in North Dallas, it is close to error free - except for some Chuck Cook type UPLs, and some random inexplicable slowdowns . Of course here the lanes are broad, well marked and no complicated turns and intersections (for the most part). For me it is worth $100/month easily
 
In the sections where I drive here in North Dallas, it is close to error free - except for some Chuck Cook type UPLs, and some random inexplicable slowdowns . Of course here the lanes are broad, well marked and no complicated turns and intersections (for the most part). For me it is worth $100/month easily
I'll be interested to hear about people's FSD 12x experiences here in the Northeast. I can imagine finding FSD having a harder time here. The insane street geographies of Boston, the winters, the constant road construction, terrible drivers, potholes, etc.

I spent three months with my MYLR in LA last year and came back convinced that Tesla being designed and tested in California (warm places with beautiful roads) made them less suited for cities like Chicago, NYC, Boston--at least for the suspension/ride quality issues. Plenty of roundabouts in MA, NH!
 
Okay, but your first post stated "on my next approach into the circle" implying you were already under control of FSD and moving. Perhaps I read it wrong...

It's not clear to me that this is a valid use case for FSD, initiating routing to a location that is what, 100 feet away? Perhaps a valid test would be routing to the BP from further back, say from the Pancake House or Davis Bakery? You know, give it a chance to make a left turn into the first entrance to the BP?

Not sure why you would label this as "bad, really bad."

Junk yard dog here, btw, but my last post on this issue.

FSD not recognizing or blatantly breaking traffic rules in such an unsafe manner shouldn't be excused by "well the location was near by".

Quite frankly, I'd expect that the FSD system would be continuously identifying and evaluating driving conditions constantly in the background for AEB and would always have the current driving context, and "enabling" it simply switches the control outputs on.

Now, enabling it very close to a location might force it to take an awkward route (nav/GPS often does this), but it shouldn't unsafely break the rules in doing so...
 
I'll be interested to hear about people's FSD 12x experiences here in the Northeast. I can imagine finding FSD having a harder time here. The insane street geographies of Boston, the winters, the constant road construction, terrible drivers, potholes, etc.

I spent three months with my MYLR in LA last year and came back convinced that Tesla being designed and tested in California (warm places with beautiful roads) made them less suited for cities like Chicago, NYC, Boston--at least for the suspension/ride quality issues. Plenty of roundabouts in MA, NH!
12.3.3 experiences Great improvement over 11 releases, however...
Exits highway at full speed. Not safe. Generic need to read yellow speed signs here in NH. Not hard to implement. Friggin Do It!
Goes unstable when planning to turn left and viola! a left lane suddenly appears. Unsafe.
Slows to 3MPH day after rain when dry road suddenly has a wet spot a few millimeters deep. Annoying to me & following cars.
Just got 12.3.4 but haven't had a chance to use it. Excited to try it.
My view is that IF stock needs Robotaxi to double or whatever, it's >3 years away, maybe 5. Faster please. I'm aging out from driving.
I see an Optimus driven leap within ~2-3 years. Driven (Heh!) by mainstream over exuberance from seeing real bots doing real tasks in factory.