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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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#1 I thought about posting these layoff rumors this weekend, but hoped someone else would as I am paid off by Bloomberg and Reuters.

Not surprisingly, no one posted anything. People are totally fine with posting bullish rumors, but everyone afraid to post not so nice rumors. That is a danger of making this place an echochamber.

#2 Anyone with a lick of common sense could tell you Baglino and Patel were fired. There are no coincidences in these events.

#3 Layoffs in a stagnant company are fine, but for Tesla this means something different as the company is valued on big future expected growth. The layoffs are a signal that demand are margins aren't coming back anytime soon. This gives more uncertainty as to what automotive margins will stabilize to, and less certainty to big investors for how much to value the company.

#4 Drew being fired may indicate 4680 progress is still stalled.

On the bright side, obviously layoffs can help reduce costs and assuming production isn't cut too much, would mean higher earnings.
In Drew’s own words…”I made the difficult decision to move on from Tesla after 18 years yesterday.”

This sure doesn’t sound like he was fired.
 
While I'm sure there are some "sky is falling reports", having a pedal slide off where it can get wedged under the floor/carpet at 100% acceleration (as was demonstrated in the video posted earlier) really isn't good.

Fortunately, Tesla's EV design will cut the motor power if it detects a conflict with someone applying the brake, so there's no chance of the motor overpowering the friction brakes, but that replies on the driver to realize what's going on and do so. While AEB hopefully would kick in if there was going to be a collision, you really don't want to rely on the last line of defense.

Unintended continued acceleration could be bad, and I'm glad to see Tesla addressing it quickly. I suspect a recall for vehicles in the wild as well (unfortumately not OTA this time). The last thing we need are collisions or injury... the news cycle would get 100X worse.
As you can probably guess, I’m tired of the unnecessary drama displayed here and elsewhere.

Obviously, there’s risk associated in this case so it’s getting fixed by holding CTs at the factory. Depending on the fix we might see a SuperCharger recall, or mobile service recall, or a SC recall. There aren’t that many CTs out there with many concentrated in CA and TX.

I’ll take my CT as is, right now, and fix the pedal cover myself. Seriously.
 
If Drew was just burned out, why not take a sabbatical instead of leaving the company? IMHO, people that love their jobs and have been at a company a long time don't bail unless something has caused them to no longer love their jobs, or there is a better opportunity elsewhere. Or it wasn't their choice. I don't buy "I wanted to spend more time with my family"
27 years in IT, I've never worked at a company that offered a sabbatical. You want a break? You have to resign. Maybe they will hire you back. Maybe.

I worked nearly 9 years in a company moving from edge of bankruptcy to multi billion valued public company. One time I asked for a 2 week long vacation. My manager did not like that. He finally agreed if I agreed to take my laptop and check my email every day. That was my "vacation". I warned that I was burning out. Didn't matter. He did try to talk me into staying when I finally resigned but it was a decided matter for me by that point.

I see many attitudes on this thread about the corporate world that I don't recognize in the experiences I've had. I started at 18. I'm 45 now. I've never seen a pension. I've not seen loyalty to employees from the top.

From speaking to employees, my impression is that Tesla is a better place to work than many places I've worked, but it is stressful and burns people out. I don't know why Drew left but 18 years in that kind of environment is an epic run.
 
All these posts attempting to make a sticky wicket out of the Cybertruck accelerator problem need to know adhesives like Gorilla glue or Flex Glue work really well. A less than 5 minute visit by a Tesla mobile service tech and you're good to go.


If adhesives work that well why is the problem happening? Did Tesla make a poor initial choice of adhesive? Did they fail to properly field test in enough conditions over enough time to find the flaw in whatever they did use?


The reason there's a (minimum) 1 week pause in deliveries is because a responsible company needs to go figure out why it happened-- and then how to properly fix it both in the field and in the factory.

"Just slap more glue on" is....an incomplete answer to any of this.
 
He just wants to save mankind , no ego

I don't think I've ever seen an instance of him saying that he personally wants to save mankind.

He has often pointed out the long-term consequences of random chance wiping out the only known existence of consciousness if mankind doesn't take steps to preserve it.

Then, he offers a few ideas toward that end and uses his talents to bring forward as much as he can in his lifetime toward achieving that.

All this has a basis in logic, reason, and the vision to bring forth a shared goal to reality.

Where is the tie to ego found?
 
Why didn't he bail a year ago? Two years ago? Same conditions applied.

None of us know that answer...and theoretically, the best clues should be in his own words (spending time with family, and finding the next interesting professional challenge eventually).

This is of course complete speculation on my part, but some possibilities:

Maybe some big challenge he was working toward has finally been "solved" in the sense that the path is now clear and obvious...and there will just be more mundane work to plod along that path to bring it all to fruition. Perhaps in that regard, the work ahead looks less interesting.

And, maybe, as time has gone on and he has become more wealthy, he has hit a personal crossing point between chasing work/wealth/professional desires versus spending more time with family.

That seems to fit with his own words.

I also suspect (again, just my own speculation and putting pieces together) that Karpathy left Tesla when he felt like the AI for FSD was "solved" and just more compute and video data and compute time was needed. Perhaps when he left in 2022, all of the needed methods and techniques were in place for FSD v12, and it just required that much time to collect all the data and build the clusters and get the neural network working.

So, hopefully theres something big coming in the next months or in a year or so in the areas where Drew worked. But even then, we won't know if that news is because of what Drew put in place before he left, or because his replacement got over some hurdle that had blocked Drew.

Personally, I am going to hold a half-full glass and believe that 4680 is on a good path, and the next big bump is just going to be copy pasting some new upgrades from their prototype line into the production line, and copy-pasting that production line a whole bunch of times.
 
I don't think I've ever seen an instance of him saying that he personally wants to save mankind.

He has often pointed out the long-term consequences of random chance wiping out the only known existence of consciousness if mankind doesn't take steps to preserve it.

Then, he offers a few ideas toward that end and uses his talents to bring forward as much as he can in his lifetime toward achieving that.

All this has a basis in logic, reason, and the vision to bring forth a shared goal to reality.

Where is the tie to ego found?
As Sam Altman said, “Elon desperately wants the world to be saved. But only if he can be the one to save it.” (source)
You may disagree but I personally find it accurate in this decade of reading/listening everything Elon said.

The simple fact that he wants to be able to "control" AI and doen't want to develop AGI at Tesla if he's not in control (i.e. 25% shares) speaks volume. I'm not even saying that he's wrong, just that he really, really, really likes to be in control (WaitButWhy profile called him "the nanomanager"). Dating divas, driving McLaren's, carefully building a 125M followers Twitter profile are other clues. The man has an ego the size of Texas, and this is kind of the reason why he is who he is.
 
27 years in IT, I've never worked at a company that offered a sabbatical. You want a break? You have to resign. Maybe they will hire you back. Maybe.

I worked nearly 9 years in a company moving from edge of bankruptcy to multi billion valued public company. One time I asked for a 2 week long vacation. My manager did not like that. He finally agreed if I agreed to take my laptop and check my email every day. That was my "vacation". I warned that I was burning out. Didn't matter. He did try to talk me into staying when I finally resigned but it was a decided matter for me by that point.

I see many attitudes on this thread about the corporate world that I don't recognize in the experiences I've had. I started at 18. I'm 45 now. I've never seen a pension. I've not seen loyalty to employees from the top.

From speaking to employees, my impression is that Tesla is a better place to work than many places I've worked, but it is stressful and burns people out. I don't know why Drew left but 18 years in that kind of environment is an epic run.

Andrej took a sabbatical
 
As Sam Altman said, “Elon desperately wants the world to be saved. But only if he can be the one to save it.” (source)
You may disagree but I personally find it accurate in this decade of reading/listening everything Elon said.

The simple fact that he wants to be able to "control" AI and doen't want to develop AGI at Tesla if he's not in control (i.e. 25% shares) speaks volume. I'm not even saying that he's wrong, just that he really, really, really likes to be in control (WaitButWhy profile called him "the nanomanager"). Dating divas, driving McLaren's, carefully building a 125M followers Twitter profile are other clues. The man has an ego the size of Texas, and this is kind of the reason why he is who he is.

Isn't it pretty reasonable to have a giant-sized ego if someone (and the team(s) they lead) start landing rockets en masse?
 
How about this, People Of The Glass Is Empty Clan.

A mandated 10% reduction across the board per Elon’s email. (Posted on the forum a few pages back). Both these guys decided they’d be part of the 10% because they were already thinking about retiring/moving on. Think for a moment the implications of that from cost savings and an up and comer who needs the job not being let go.
Don't leave out the CT production line hour trim, the vehicles piling up in the pipeline, the still unexplained talk of the M2 going on the back burner with the only response being a knee-jerk announcement of a many months from now unveiling date for RT, chopping the FSD subscription price in half...
Clearly everything is going great!
What I do know is the margins are going to stay in a more normal range for auto companies moving forward.
 
27 years in IT, I've never worked at a company that offered a sabbatical. You want a break? You have to resign. Maybe they will hire you back. Maybe.

I worked nearly 9 years in a company moving from edge of bankruptcy to multi billion valued public company. One time I asked for a 2 week long vacation. My manager did not like that. He finally agreed if I agreed to take my laptop and check my email every day. That was my "vacation". I warned that I was burning out. Didn't matter. He did try to talk me into staying when I finally resigned but it was a decided matter for me by that point.

I see many attitudes on this thread about the corporate world that I don't recognize in the experiences I've had. I started at 18. I'm 45 now. I've never seen a pension. I've not seen loyalty to employees from the top.

From speaking to employees, my impression is that Tesla is a better place to work than many places I've worked, but it is stressful and burns people out. I don't know why Drew left but 18 years in that kind of environment is an epic run.
Oh no. I'm the biz dev director of an IT company and I'm taking a half-year sabbatical next month. The plan is to bike from Vienna to Istanbul before traveling across South America. I got a stock package a few week ago so I hope I won't get fired from the company when I come back.

Oh wait, no worry: I work at a French company and taking a sabbatical is a legal right 😅
 
I believe what we are hearing and seeing these last few weeks is part of a big pivot going on at Tesla.

Elon is on the one hand seeing how hard the car market can be (increasing cheap competition from China, high interest rates, huge capital expenditures) and on the other hand he is witnessing the huge steps FSD is finally making. The Reuters story last week about cancelling Model 2 to focus on Robotaxi wasn’t true, but may have contained a kernel of truth: Tesla will slowly be moving from traditional hardware (cars that people own and drive) to a company only producing autonomous cars, robotaxis, software (licensing) and robots.

This process will still take years - if only because the car business funds the R&D and provides the data. But I believe the 10% layoffs and the resignations of execs (who were probably given the opportunity to resign gracefully) are part of this pivot. I expect that the layoffs will not affect teams working in parts of the company which are considered to be future proof. The execs leaving now also did not work there.
 
As Sam Altman said, “Elon desperately wants the world to be saved. But only if he can be the one to save it.” (source)
You may disagree but I personally find it accurate in this decade of reading/listening everything Elon said.

The simple fact that he wants to be able to "control" AI and doen't want to develop AGI at Tesla if he's not in control (i.e. 25% shares) speaks volume. I'm not even saying that he's wrong, just that he really, really, really likes to be in control (WaitButWhy profile called him "the nanomanager"). Dating divas, driving McLaren's, carefully building a 125M followers Twitter profile are other clues. The man has an ego the size of Texas, and this is kind of the reason why he is who he is.

Slight correction:

If I recall, the 25% desire wasn't for his personal control, but for his view of a balanced level of influence. Elon wants to keep control away from profit-hungry investment firms focused on short-term gains and no care for the longer-term future.

Elon wants himself (who he believes to value humanity over profit) plus "regular" shareholders who theoretically also care about something beyond this quarter's profits to be able to out-vote institutional shareholders that are motivated more purely by short-term profits. And, likewise, if Elon's own wishes become bad, then with "only 25%" he can also be out-voted by "the people".

Elon's tweet:


"I am uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in AI & robotics without having ~25% voting control. Enough to be influential, but not so much that I can’t be overturned.

Unless that is the case, I would prefer to build products outside of Tesla. You don’t seem to understand that Tesla is not one startup, but a dozen. Simply look at the delta between what Tesla does and GM.

As for stock ownership itself being enough motivation, Fidelity and other own similar stakes to me. Why don’t they show up for work?"
 
Anybody know offhand what Drew had for outstanding options? Saw mention they need to be exercised within 90 days of separation (and presumably some shares sold to pay taxes)

10k from a couple years ago included an Outstanding Equity Awards section showing options on like 500k shares, but more recent ones didn't have that section so probably not material but was curious.
 
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Isn't it pretty reasonable to have a giant-sized ego if someone (and the team(s) they lead) start landing rockets en masse?

I don't think there's anything wrong with having an out sized ego, as long as the person is on the good side of the line that divides out sized ego with arrogance.