Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zero CO2]

I am puzzled about 12.3.4 - compared to 12.3.3 it is less solid in picking lanes and made more mistakes, but noticed something else - it seems to have more a mind of its own. For example it will not always take the route the navigation displays. Did they turn off some guardrails because of progress in planning ? Was 12.3.3 not as free to make decisions as end to end neuronal network architecture suggested and 12.3.4 is ?

not my experience with 12.3.4 at all very confident in picking lanes especially on NYC streets with 4 lanes and parking in one of the lanes where cars go in and out of lanes to avoid parked cars ... just did a drive it was great at it ...

 

[Knightshade]

In Florida the law says if a company is willing to assume all responsibility for the actions of the car, it’s legal to drive. Nothing about how it does it.

That is not correct.

Florida specifically requires meeting numerous, specific, requirements for a self driving system, all of which use the definitions and terms taken from J3016.

FL law here:

Chapter 316 Section 003 - 2021 Florida Statutes - The Florida Senate

flsenate.gov

Read down to section 3- Automated driving system.

They define numerous specific features (like dynamic driving task and operational design domain), all of which take their definitions directly from J3016 and the system must meet those requirements to be a legal automated driving system in Florida.

Further down they use another J3016- "achieve a minimal risk condition" with a pointer to where that is defined ni FL law, which is here:

Chapter 319 Section 145 - 2021 Florida Statutes - The Florida Senate

flsenate.gov

Where again they use J3016 definitions for both the L3 version of DDT fallback (human must respond to an alert to take over) and the L4 version (vehicle can achieve a minimal risk condition without a human, and the J3016 definition of what minimal risk condition is.


So yes- quite a bit about how it does it. All using the specific language and definitions from J3016.

 

[Ellec]

Countries aren't banning ICEVs. States aren't banning ICEVs.

And AVs could easily be PHEVs. Don't need BEV.

Read this Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles

 

[Zero CO2]

Trimming dead weight would be expected to hit nearly all departments... it's common for big companies to lay off the lowest X% performers across the board.

One other correction- it was four executives who left on the same day... Amir Mirshahi, director of infrastructure at Tesla Gigafactory Texas and Anthony Thurston, Senior Manager of Cathode Materials & Manufacturing at Tesla, also left.

bit of a stretch to call these 2 executives... they are middle managers at best

 

[willow_hiller]

not my experience with 12.3.4 at all very confident in picking lanes especially on NYC streets with 4 lanes and parking in one of the lanes where cars go in and out of lanes to avoid parked cars ... just did a drive it was great at it ...

Same in Downtown DC. V11 would always pick the far left or far right lane, and get stuck behind people making unprotected lefts or parked vehicles. V12 tends to choose the center lane while driving in the city, until it needs a left or a right for navigation.

 

[larmor]

Hopefully Elon doesn't throw away the Semi too ;-)
"EU parliament just voted to limit truck emissions further:
-40% by 2030
-65% by 2035
-90% by 2040"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780148019452588390

EU Parliament adopts 90% phase-out of new diesel trucks by 2040

Average emissions of new trucks will have to be reduced by 90% by 2040, compared to 2019, the European Parliament decided on Wednesday (10 April), adopting a law that will drastically reduce the number of new diesel trucks.

www.euractiv.com

Lets separate the benefits from EV Semis-- carbon credits, regulations, etc, and just look at the pure economics on a cost per mile operation for the Tesla Semi. It is cheaper, so really its not about anything more than a company saving money on the transportation costs.

Credits, regulations, etc are going to assist the other auto/truck manufacturers, but right now tesla Semi remains a winner on the cost per mile. I'm going to have a chicken dinner now...

 

[Knightshade]

bit of a stretch to call these 2 executives... they are middle managers at best

I've score you 50/50 for that one--- though I think a title of "Senior Manager of Cathode Materials & Manufacturing" at a company like Tesla might be above middle.... That said- a director is absolutely an executive at every major corp I've worked for and as commonly used in the US.

Director (business) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Within companies that use this term in the latter (American English) sense it would be normal to have directors spread throughout different business functions or roles (e.g. director of human resources).[2] In such a case, the director usually reports directly to a vice president or to the CEO directly in order to let them know the progress of the organization. Large organizations may also have "assistant" or "deputy" directors. In this context, Director commonly refers to the lowest level of executive in an organization

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I agree. The specs on the cameras show the car is very nearsighted. In the country I’m often looking a half mile or more ahead. I drive a lot on two lane rural roads with passing necessary. The car has to move to where the center of the windshield is clear of the truck it’s passing and then can’t see more than about 1000 feet at best..NOT GOOD! A long range camera in the drivers side mirror housing would be a godsend. Also, my S is at least 10% less efficient on FSD.

I get you need
V >= Dv/(D-4v-L)
Where V is passing speed in fps, v is passed vehicle speed D is passing distance, L is passed vehicle length and it's 4v allowing 2 second gap behind and in front.
Also, I'm ignoring acceleration to passing speed.

So, if a 75ft tractor trailer is traveling at 25mph you can get by safely in 1000 ft at just over 47 mph.
If it's traveling at 55mph you can pass at 59.4mph with a mile of visibility at the start of the maneuver.
And it's harder if you're following something like a B-train double
_Definitely_ needs a very long range camera for full AV, unless it's going to sit behind longer vehicles.

 

[sunwarriors]

Please, provide a similar thesis on why a shareholder would place any value on the words from an admitted non-shareholder who finds it necessary to post in a Tesla investment forum.

Go into some detail on the motivation behind this choice.

Lastly, provide some insight on how you discern the difference between being "drowned or insulted out" and being called out when an ill-informed opinion is demonstrated to be factually false.

This is why I don't post much in this thread. If you look at the Lucid forums, it's the same, bullish comments non-stop and neglect/dismissal for anything not of that mindset. It's the same here, any other forum.

At the end of the day, 3 years, 5 years, we'll all see how it turns out. I post because Tesla is simply an interesting stock/company to discuss.

Facts are sales dropped a lot last quarter, price cuts were facts (MY dropped $20k), layoffs are happening now, facts are Elon is saying the company is worthless outside of AI/Robotaxis, facts are FSD is now $99/month vs. $199/month earlier. If you don't buy that narrative, those investors are now selling, hence, the stock dropping now. If you do buy it and think robotaxis/AI will make people think $20k or $12k is worth it to pay for, then load up now/later when it possibly gets even cheaper.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think this is more than just cleaning house. It seems like they are also doing a remodel (ie some significant changes to the company/business).

I’m okay with that. Not the first time, won’t be the last. While many are fretting, I’m excited. Buy with impunity is on like Donkey Kong.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I’m okay with that. Not the first time, won’t be the last. While many are fretting, I’m excited. Buy with impunity is on like flint.

I'm OK with it too.

I just think this has more to do with why Drew et al left yesterday than the stated reason, and we will learn more details over the next week and the quarterly results discussion.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Same in Downtown DC. V11 would always pick the far left or far right lane, and get stuck behind people making unprotected lefts or parked vehicles. V12 tends to choose the center lane while driving in the city, until it needs a left or a right for navigation.

Map question:

We have ongoing construction with new overpasses etc in Tempe Az (Broadway curve). It still takes the earlier wrong exit every time in a couple of places (To Airport and again back to Chandler). There must have been at least 100K Tesla drive this route by now, so it doesn't appear to be updating maps much from the disengagements. The traffic signs were clear, so it's not exactly figuring it out on it's own either. This seems doable either way, so I wonder if it's just lower priority at present or is there a flaw in the current approach to maps?

Is it that the effort to constantly correct maps would be more costly (or risky), vs just learning to read the signs and figure out the changes real-time? Like humans, if we know the route needed just need to follow the new signs... right?

ChatGPT can already read text in images, and even create images with text embedded in 3D. This should be coming soon to Tesla if we're talking big changes every couple weeks. Continue to emulate the humans - so far so good.

 

[Matias]

Tesla could start a limited robotaxi service with human safety drivers.

What is the point?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This is why I don't post much in this thread. If you look at the Lucid forums, it's the same, bullish comments non-stop and neglect/dismissal for anything not of that mindset. It's the same here, any other forum.

At the end of the day, 3 years, 5 years, we'll all see how it turns out. I post because Tesla is simply an interesting stock/company to discuss.

Facts are sales dropped a lot last quarter, price cuts were facts (MY dropped $20k), layoffs are happening now, facts are Elon is saying the company is worthless outside of AI/Robotaxis, facts are FSD is now $99/month vs. $199/month earlier. If you don't buy that narrative, those investors are now selling, hence, the stock dropping now. If you do buy it and think robotaxis/AI will make people think $20k or $12k is worth it to pay for, then load up now/later when it possibly gets even cheaper.

The reason for the drop I am going with is that it is tax time and people needed to sell to pay Uncle Sam.

TMC has become quite the negative nancy place lately, We roll with the good and bad, $TSLA will be back eventually.

 

[GatorMeat]

This tweet is incredibly dumb. Troy is pointing out sales stagnating in Europe for six quarters. Mr. Ferguson is harping on one quarter.

And as Troy has pointed out, Tesla has plenty of inventory. They grew inventory by 46k in Q1. The two events did nothing to slow sales.

Few understand.

Promoting Tesla to promote your investment firm usually doesn't end well. Plus who needs/wants an investment advisor that is so biased to one security?

 

[Usain]

I think human safety driver would be a weird walkback of years of his describing how RTs and their rollout would work- but if he wants to buy more time for FSD development to justify betting the company on RT it's possible they announce that.

I would be dubious of the 'end of next year' claim simply because he's made that claim seemingly annually for a long time now (including where I directly quoted him doing so in 2019 at Autonomy day). Even he admits he has no idea how long it'll take him to accomplish things nobody has before.

That doesn't mean I don't believe he eventually tends to accomplish them. But nothing about my FSD experience (or that of many many others who've also been using it for years now) gives me any confidence actual driverless is that close.

Then you and I simply disagree on how far along the technology is right now and how rapidly it can improve. Now that it is end-to-end with abundant training resources, we are going to see that Tesla can add new features and fixes quickly.

I don't see how you start a robotaxi service without human safety drivers at first. You can't just set the car loose and hope for the best. The key to actually solving the robotaxi use case is for Tesla to just start doing robotaxi work. Tesla will do it with a safety driver and find out the true delta between what they have and what they need.

Tesla will not find that delta from looking at a document. That would be the wrong approach. Tesla will never solve robotaxi from reading a document.

The solution is to test, fix, test, fix, test, fix, ........

At the end of the day, "safe and reliable" are all that really matters. Once "safe and reliable" are proven, regulators will be satisfied with Tesla just as they were with Waymo.

 

[jerry33]

I'm not denying there are busy times in all cities. It was was suggested that the economic utility of a RT was not several times that of a car that sits idle for most of the day. This is, just at face value, false. The notion that somehow rushhour in LA, or any other city for that matter, makes RTs unable to deliver more utility throughout the rest of the day against the alternative (a car that sits idle) makes no logical sense. Absolutely the RT that is active will move more bodies than the sitting vehicle. Period.

I think this is only true if RTs are only a small percentage of cars. If there are enough RTs to handle a good portion of rush hour, then most of the RT fleet will sit idle until the next rush hour.

 

[Usain]

I find it hard to believe that people will give up car ownership in large numbers. Scrapping the $25k car I think would be a huge mistake. As it is, Tesla doesn't have many options for reasonably priced mass produced cars. A sedan and a small crossover, that's it. Very disappointed that they seem to be going all in on RT and not releasing some new products in different segments.

While I think my Y is a great car, Tesla still doesn't have a standard SUV Telluride type vehicle or even something smaller like a Grand Cherokee type vehicle. I keep waiting to replace my wifes ICE car hoping that Tesla will release something that fits what we want, otherwise I will eventually be forced to buy a Kia or Rivian (when they have NACS). (I will not buy another ICE car)

I think Tesla would be foolish to play the "me too" game by releasing many, many models.

To disrupt the auto industry Tesla has to do something disruptive. Autonomy is it.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Significant UI updates coming soon...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780266303326228508

 

[MP3Mike]

It looks like we get a mid-year "holiday update" this year. Thread on it here: Tesla: Highlights from our upcoming Spring Release below

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780266303326228508