Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jschwefel]

What if every RT is designed to be configured with or without steering wheel, foot pedals, and mirrors. There would be a "driver package" that connects electronically to the vehicle's network bus after being physically installed?

And, this package could easily be converted from driver to driverless and back as needed, in the field.

Would that address this question sufficiently?

Yes, that works, and that’s what I think (hope) Tesla is doing. Given the situation with something as simple as mirrors, it seems crazy to think Tesla wouldn’t have a parallel path for RT that includes a steering wheel and foot pedals.

 

[hobbes]

My Mandarin is not what it could be - is this in China and is FSD 12 even available there?

Was asking myself the same, the nav screen shows it is New York City:

 

[Usain]

And this whole delivery halt fiasco.

Do we know if the CT production line is also halted?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Funny how some green pennies make us happy....ahhhh...the small things in life.

So far so good!

 

[Krugerrand]

I was merely pointing out this did not seem like the run of the mill, near-annual trimming of redundant positions that has happened before.

You (and others) chose to run with "omg D&S is saying Tesla is in dire straits, what a moron, let's down vote him to oblivion." It's not my problem if you choose to assign intent to posts by inventing a narrative I never stated.

You weren’t merely pointing anything out. It’s history now so anyone interested can simply do a search and read your posts. Just a bunch of tidbits of FUD dropped without narration from you. Then when pushed it’s ‘ah, shucks I’m innocent. I merely meant ‘fill in dishonest bs’.

But hey, if I’m wrong about you, feel free to change the way you post. Include your own narrative in detail, so you’re not being misunderstood, so FUD isn’t sticking to you like bugs on a windshield, and I’ll happily stop disagreeing with your very essence and apologize.

There’s your olive branch. I look forward to your narrative, where you present each situation from both sides before choosing yours and why.

 

[Musskiah]

I have been using FSD (now v12.3.4) everyday and I just don't see the value in it of why people in large numbers would pay for it.

I get so much benefit from FSD already, I am completely confused at how people don't derive $100/month value from it. Just today FSD drove my MX 20 min through two temporary construction areas (one with a stop sign, one with a light) and multiple interesctions (both stop lights and signs) while I texted and caught up on email so I could be totally present for my son who I was picking up early from daycare - to the average parent I think this would be worth a couple bucks Then I said "take us to..." the playground he loves 25 min from his daycare and reengaged FSD again, it drove us back through some construction and then a roundabout and 4 intersections while I fed him healthy food and worked through some educational games with him - again worth a couple bucks. We arrived and he was fed and smarter before he plays, and because I took care of all the communicating texts and emails, I could devote my undivided attention to him. All the while FSD was ensuring our safety and reducing the amount of thinking i had to do so I could commit my attention to other things. So let's say all of the above was worth $5 (times 30 days is $150/month), is that fair? For those of us with children, the added safety and time to engage with children is incredible. With BOTH kids, it's invaluable.

I'm not trying to talk down on anyone, just thinking aloud, trying to understand where the percieved value is so different for some: perhaps those who don't value FSD don't have enough responsibility (or children) to understand what time is really worth.

Also, I am seriously lowballing the amount to be relateable to anyone, as my time is worth many hundreds of dollars an hour as a function of my career, these numbers are certainly several times more valuable to me. Just my 2 cents and an example from today.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not sure if it's been discussed, but how is Tesla planning to grow volumes in Q2 and the second half of 2024? They just ended inventory discounts and raised prices $1k on April 1st. They previously had a demand problem (supply > sales) as @Troy has noted since late 2022. Increasing price only decreases demand if you aren't materially changing the product you're selling.

Any theories on how (or if) Tesla will grow unit volumes the rest of the year?

1. Why not see if you can have the question upvoted on SAY?

2. Don’t bring Troy into this. He’s not some all knowing authority proven by MY own estimate, that I pulled out of @Unpilot ’s nether region two days before, being bang on. Additionally, I reject his theory. When he can prove it, it’ll be a fact. Only then will it matter. Opinions are like you know what.

3. Simply wait a few days and hope someone else asks your burning question.

 

[MP3Mike]

Lingang Megafactory to begin production in May,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780501446016053448

No, it says factory construction starts in May. production in Q1 of 2025. (So almost a year from now.)

 

[cusetownusa]

I get so much benefit from FSD already, I am completely confused at how people don't derive $100/month value from it. Just today FSD drove my MX drove me 20 min through two temporary construction areas (one woth a stop sign, one with a light) and multiple interesctions (both stop lights and signs) while I texted and caught up on email so I could be totally present for my son who I was picking up early from daycare - to the average parent I think this would be worth a couple bucks Then I said "take us to..." the playground he loves 25 min from his daycare and reengaged FSD again, it drove us back through some construction and then a roundabout and 4 intersections while I fed him healthy food and worked through some educational games with him - again worth a couple bucks. We arrived and he was fed and smarter before he plays, and ecauze I took care of all the communicating texts and emails, I could devote my undivided attention to him. All the while FSD was ensuring our safety and reducing the amount of thinking i had to do so I could commit my attention to other things. So let's say all of the above was worth $5 (times 30 days is $150/month), is that fair? For those of us with children, the added safety and time to engage with children is incredible. With BOTH kids, it's invaluable. I am seriously lowballing the amount to be relateable to anyone, as my time is worth many hundreds of dollars an hour as a function of my career, these numbers are certainly several times more valuable to me. Just my 2 cents and an example from today.

Say what? Are you saying this is what you will do if true unsupervised FSD is solved or are you saying this is how you use it now. If you are saying you are doing this now, thats crazy. No way I would text/email, play with kids, etc. while in charge of the car. Its not close to being able to trust it like that, not to mention the car would start going crazy if I didn't have my hands on the wheel or was looking down at my phone/computer/child/etc.

 

[Krugerrand]

I love the idea of my car being able to drive for me when I can't drive (few beers) or don't want to (lazy, sleepy, don't feel like it). I'm not a huge fan of being forced to have the car drive for me all the time. I enjoy driving and would want to be able to do that when I feel like it.

If Tesla is going almost all in on autonomy, that is great, but I hope they have multiple use cases in mind and not a one size fits all approach. Sometimes you just need a ride across town, but other times you need to take your family to the airport with a bunch of bags, or go on a road trip with a bunch of equipment.

I would expect Tesla to do more with inductive charging so a RT could easily charge itself.

In this moment, you make like to drive sometimes. Eventually all those burritos will catch up to you and you may not be able to drive.

What I find fascinating - and I’m just picking you as an example - is that currently you can’t ever drive after a few beers (unless you risk life, limb, license and jail), and so you’d be tickled to be able to get in your own FSD capable car under the influence. But if you couldn’t ever drive, it’s you being forced.

Newsflash, you’re already being ‘forced’ not to drive if;

you take in alcohol
you don’t have a license
you don’t have vehicle insurance
you want to text, do emails
you have epilepsy
you can’t see
you’re high or taking medication that makes you drowsy
etc., etc., etc.,

It’s a rather cake and eat it too situation, though without the realization you’re already in a cake OR eat situation, so what’s the difference in being in simply a different cake OR eat situation?

Or, have one vehicle you drive when the mood suits you and a second one for when the mood doesn’t suit you?

 

[jschwefel]

1. Why not see if you can have the question upvoted on SAY?

2. Don’t bring Troy into this. He’s not some all knowing authority proven by MY own estimate, that I pulled out of @Unpilot ’s nether region two days before, being bang on. Additionally, I reject his theory. When he can prove it, it’ll be a fact. Only then will it matter. Opinions are like you know what.

3. Simply wait a few days and hope someone else asks your burning question.

This is a valid question, and I hope it gets asked. It’s one thing to be between two growth waves, but it’s another to have sales contract.

The market for Model 3 and Y is huge and even though the Model Y was the best selling car in the world last year, it’s not like Tesla to rest on its laurels. Nearly everyone buying a RAV4, CRV, or similar ICE is a potential Tesla customer. LFG!

 

[Knightshade]

I get so much benefit from FSD already, I am completely confused at how people don't derive $100/month value from it. Just today FSD drove my MX 20 min through two temporary construction areas (one with a stop sign, one with a light) and multiple interesctions (both stop lights and signs) while I texted and caught up on email

So you're misusing the system in a manner Tesla explicitly tells you is dangerous?

so I could be totally present for my son who I was picking up early from daycare - to the average parent I think this would be worth a couple bucks Then I said "take us to..." the playground he loves 25 min from his daycare and reengaged FSD again, it drove us back through some construction and then a roundabout and 4 intersections while I fed him healthy food and worked through some educational games with him

Plus endangering you child while doing it.

- again worth a couple bucks. We arrived and he was fed and smarter before he plays, and because I took care of all the communicating texts and emails, I could devote my undivided attention to him. All the while FSD was ensuring our safety and reducing the amount of thinking i had to do

It's possible you've already reduced it too far.

Legit I hope your post is trolling.

 

[Musskiah]

Hi, Scaesare --

Why not both?

Yours,
RP

Let's just put it this way: the last major layoffs (9% of the workforce each time) were June 2018 and January 2019. After June 2018 their OPERATING CASH FLOW TURNED POSITIVE and never looked back, and look at their FCF improved by billions!

How about when they cut 10% of the workforce and froze hiring June 2022?

FCF went up by almost $3B!!

FCF is the metric to watch in Q2 and Q3. If you subscribe to the "doom and gloom" or @DarkandStormy narrative, a drop in FCF will support your thinking. The reality is, labor is so expensive, the results are predictable. The restructuring will make Tesla operate leaner and generate more cash. S'all good.

 

[Musskiah]

So you're misusing the system in a manner Tesla explicitly tells you is dangerous?

Plus endangering you child while doing it.

No, I pay attention, I'm always aware of my surroundings. Why do you think I am endangering my child? If I didn't copilot, FSD would disable because I ignored it.

Legit I hope your post is trolling.

Takes one to know one

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Or, have one vehicle you drive when the mood suits you and a second one for when the mood doesn’t suit you?

I agree with everything you said. For this one point above, ideally that would be one vehicle instead of two

 

[Mengy]

I get so much benefit from FSD already, I am completely confused at how people don't derive $100/month value from it. Just today FSD drove my MX 20 min through two temporary construction areas (one with a stop sign, one with a light) and multiple interesctions (both stop lights and signs) while I texted and caught up on email so I could be totally present for my son who I was picking up early from daycare - to the average parent I think this would be worth a couple bucks Then I said "take us to..." the playground he loves 25 min from his daycare and reengaged FSD again, it drove us back through some construction and then a roundabout and 4 intersections while I fed him healthy food and worked through some educational games with him - again worth a couple bucks. We arrived and he was fed and smarter before he plays, and because I took care of all the communicating texts and emails, I could devote my undivided attention to him. All the while FSD was ensuring our safety and reducing the amount of thinking i had to do so I could commit my attention to other things. So let's say all of the above was worth $5 (times 30 days is $150/month), is that fair? For those of us with children, the added safety and time to engage with children is incredible. With BOTH kids, it's invaluable.

I'm not trying to talk down on anyone, just thinking aloud, trying to understand where the percieved value is so different for some: perhaps those who don't value FSD don't have enough responsibility (or children) to understand what time is really worth.

Also, I am seriously lowballing the amount to be relateable to anyone, as my time is worth many hundreds of dollars an hour as a function of my career, these numbers are certainly several times more valuable to me. Just my 2 cents and an example from today.

This is dangerous dude. I know FSD is really great right now but its not L5 yet, heck its still L2. You should be paying attention to the car and the road while using FSD v12.3.4, not texting and emailing.

Please be safer and put more value both on your own life but the lives of others on the road as well.


NOW, as to why people might not see the value of FSD at $99/mo, first not everyone can afford to pay that when they can drive themselves for free. Second not everyone has work to do while being driven around, so the value of FSD becomes low for them.

Robotaxi is a different thing, once FSD is L5 and people don't have to drive at all, then they'll watch YouTube and Netflix and stuff while being driven around. But most wont' pay $99/mo for that luxury.

 

[Musskiah]

Say what? Are you saying this is what you will do if true unsupervised FSD is solved or are you saying this is how you use it now. If you are saying you are doing this now, thats crazy. No way I would text/email, play with kids, etc. while in charge of the car. Its not close to being able to trust it like that, not to mention the car would start going crazy if I didn't have my hands on the wheel or was looking down at my phone/computer/child/etc.

Been doing it since 2016 bro. Narry an accident caused. No one said I wasn't paying attention.

 

[Krugerrand]

One side of me says that Tesla knows for a fact that FSD is going to be solved soon, and shareholders should not worry. The other side says that Tesla is the most incompetent company on earth. Here is some proof. Zero followup about the Long Term Shareholder program for Early CT delivery. They’ve got some of the most loyal shareholders hyped up for nothing. Shame on Tesla.

And this whole delivery halt fiasco. No one knows the exact nature of it, not even employees. Keeping it a secret is only creating FUD and other conspiracies, and gives customers a bad taste in their mouth. Do we really need NHTSA to be the ones telling us the truth?

And one more. They are doing NOTHING to stop people from reselling their Cybertrucks. There are hundreds on the market! Tesla needs to improve the customer experience, and stop treating people like a nuisance. Some parts of the experience are really good, and some are terrible.

So, you’re mad you haven’t been able to spend the 100k burning a hole in your pocket, huh?

Me too. I’ll take a defective CT this very second.

 

[Unpilot]

1. Why not see if you can have the question upvoted on SAY?

2. Don’t bring Troy into this. He’s not some all knowing authority proven by MY own estimate, that I pulled out of @Unpilot ’s nether region two days before, being bang on. Additionally, I reject his theory. When he can prove it, it’ll be a fact. Only then will it matter. Opinions are like you know what.

3. Simply wait a few days and hope someone else asks your burning question.

Ouch....keep your paws to yourself!

 

[Musskiah]

This is dangerous dude. I know FSD is really great right now but its not L5 yet, heck its still L2. You should be paying attention to the car and the road while using FSD v12.3.4, not texting and emailing.

Please be safer and put more value both on your own life but the lives of others on the road as well.

Strong disagree. No one ever said I wasn't paying attention. I just pay the attention of a copilot. It's not unsafe. I have never been in an accident in Autopilot/FSD for 8 years now. I follow the rules, hence FSD doesn't disable

Robotaxi is a different thing, once FSD is L5 and people don't have to drive at all, then they'll watch YouTube and Netflix and stuff while being driven around. But most wont' pay $99/mo for that luxury.

Right, they'll pay much more than $99 for L5.