Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DarkandStormy]

I’ve been invested over 12 years to date. I have shares with cost basis between $2.32 and whatever my last set of demand shares are going to be within the next couple of weeks. 95% of my shares are under $10.

I plan on holding for the foreseeable future, cashing in as I need money to defend my mountain from @Unpilot.

You want to ask your question again, or move along?

This seems to be a hard concept for some. Your set of circumstances are not the same for everyone else. Other people invest with a different time horizon in mind.

You are, again, weirdly defensive when being asked a question. No one asked for your cost basis lol

But I get it. It's a tough week. Stock is down ~14% from last Friday.

 

[EQC_]

My personal opinion (having some involvement both in production and automotive engineering through the companies I own - small companies) is that there's no way they can make a car that makes a profit at 25000$. You look in a Model 3, where could they cut 40% of cost?

If I remember correctly, before the Model 3 came out, Mark Spiegel (aka "Logical Thought" on Seeking Alpha) made the exact same argument by looking at the price of a Model S, and declared that the Model 3 would cost only slightly less to produce. I vaguely remember him making the argument by subtracting a percentage of the battery and a percentage of the weight of metals for assorted components, shaving a few dollars off for a smaller screen, etc. Despite the many "details" he used in his calculation, the conclusion he came to was flawed.

It's just hard to start with an expensive car (and all of the non-obvious things in the manufacturing process and manufacturing scale that drive that cost) and whittle it down to something less expensive. To take it to the extreme, if somebody is looking at a $1million supercar, it's hard to imagine getting cost down to $24K for a Honda Civic. The Civic actually has more doors and more seats, and probably pretty close to the same weight. And a 16-cylinder, 1000-horsepower supercar only has ~7x the horsepowe and 4x the number of cylinders. Finding a factor of 40 to cut the cost is nigh impossible unless you get deeper into manufacturing techniques and scale.

But, we have heard stories about Tesla engineers dissecting a Honda Civic, which is made in the USA. Assuming Tesla can figure out how to produce a car at the same efficiency as Honda, then a very crude calculation of a Gen 3 Tesla could include:

1. Start with a $24,000 Honda Civic (sales price...presumably higher than the build cost)
2. Subtract cost of engine, transmission, gas tank.
3. Add cost of battery
   1. Presumably, a US-made 50kWh battery will be under $3,000 after incentives?
4. Add cost of electric motor
   1. Tesla has said their next-gen no-rare-Earth-metals motor is under $1,000

Doing that, a profitable $25K car seems pretty reasonable...and we of course know that more profit will come from the assorted options available too.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Stuff like this makes it hard for any Western auto maker to compete:

BYD's new EV, starting at less than $10,000, is stoking fear across the industry

Leading EV maker BYD shook the industry after unveiling the new Seagull (Dolphin Mini), with starting prices as low as...

electrek.co

Yeah, but how does it drive and feel? When one closes the door is it solid or does it rattle for the next 10 seconds? How does it feel a month from now? There was a car company named Yugo that tried to sell cheap cars in the US. For a time, moderately successful though one would not want to be in an accident in one..............................What? Never heard of them......................Thats the point.

 

[Musskiah]

The competition...is...co..mi.....ohhhh <sigh>

 

[EQC_]

Looks like Tesla is rolling out the ability to be able to order food takeaway at limited supercharging locations in the UK. Tesla owners are able to order the food directly from their car's screen inside the 'facilities' submenu for those specific supercharging locations:


View attachment 1039881

Feels like this should be an advertisement covering two bases:

1. Provides a benefit to Tesla owners who are finding that, as supercharger speed increases, the process is actually too fast -- they don't even have time to go into a fast food place, order food, receive it, and eat it. Now the food will be ready when they arrive.
2. Provides a counter-argument to non-Tesla owners who think charging takes too long. It's pretty obvious they are wrong if Tesla is providing ways to make the food/bathroom break for the humans go faster so that it better matches the charging.

 

[Curt Renz]

Today is a monthly options expiration day. More interest than a weekly, less than a quarterly. A review of overnight open interest and trading so far today, makes it appear that TSLA $150 would be the most likely closing target for big option writers with the ability to temporarily manipulate the share price.

Flight from the Magnificent Seven (includes TSLA) appears to have slightly upset what might have been the most profitable plan for big TSLA option writers today.

 

[jerry33]

Maybe or maybe not. But the other problem that the "Model 2" would face is that it's biggest markets would be outside of the United States. There, the Chinese competition is fierce and would drive down margins. I think the market is misreading/misinterpreting the Model 2 as some sort of savior for the stock. It's not going to drive profits without robust FSD as a differentiator. Even with FSD, the Chinese competitors have fairly serviceable FSD-like offerings.

As risky as it is (and it is very risky), going all out on autonomy seems like the best out of a bunch of bad options.

Tesla 3 and Y are also more expensive--they don't appear to be doing too badly. I see no reason why the smaller car wouldn't be popular as well. Price isn't everything, safety and reliability count too.

 

[jerry33]

Feels like this should be an advertisement covering two bases:

1. Provides a benefit to Tesla owners who are finding that, as supercharger speed increases, the process is actually too fast -- they don't even have time to go into a fast food place, order food, receive it, and eat it. Now the food will be ready when they arrive.
2. Provides a counter-argument to non-Tesla owners who think charging takes too long. It's pretty obvious they are wrong if Tesla is providing ways to make the food/bathroom break for the humans go faster so that it better matches the charging.

Even if the food is delivered as soon as you start charging, the charging will almost always be done before you finish. (Unless there is something dreadfully slow about UK Superchargers)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Even if the food is delivered as soon as you start charging, the charging will almost always be done before you finish. (Unless there is something dreadfully slow about UK Superchargers)

Or the person consuming the food is a absurdly fast eater

 

[sunwarriors]

Yeah, but how does it drive and feel? When one closes the door is it solid or does it rattle for the next 10 seconds? How does it feel a month from now? There was a car company named Yugo that tried to sell cheap cars in the US. For a time, moderately successful though one would not want to be in an accident in one..............................What? Never heard of them......................Thats the point.

I never implied this would ever be in the US. Someone was asking about 20k or 25k EVs, they will have them in China. Elon has quoted that BYD is not the company he laughed at back in 2011 now. Would ultra nationalistic China pay $30k or more for a Tesla EV or less? I agree that no $10k or BYD car is coming yet. If they can get Mexico working and deal with China hate in the US, possibly, but you can see all the auto makers lobbying hard with tariffs/etc.

https://insideevs.com/news/669539/elon-musk-once-laughed-at-byd-here-what-he-thinks-now/

 

[FreqFlyer]

Can't wait, good questions............But will they be answered?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781389992662577466

 

[GOVA]

what a great...CNBC...segment for Tesla in India

What I've noticed is that cnbs India is less corrupt/stupid than its US of A counterpart.

 

[Musskiah]

I’ve been invested over 12 years to date. I have shares with cost basis between $2.32 and whatever my last set of demand shares are going to be within the next couple of weeks. 95% of my shares are under $10.

I plan on holding for the foreseeable future, cashing in as I need money to defend my mountain from @Unpilot.

You want to ask your question again, or move along?

 

[Krugerrand]

This seems to be a hard concept for some. Your set of circumstances are not the same for everyone else. Other people invest with a different time horizon in mind.

Not the point. Not the context of the subject matter. And doesn’t change the fact this is a long term investor thread, reiterated by the thread creator and moderator.

You are, again, weirdly defensive when being asked a question. No one asked for your cost basis lol

You are, again, being dishonest with your posts and reason for being here. You suggested 2.5 years was a long time to be invested - it’s not - and that in that time frame the stock is down 63%.

I literally told you what long term investing is and showed you - perhaps the math was too difficult for you to do - thousands of percent of upside for true long term investing. Thousands > 63.

But I get it. It's a tough week. Stock is down ~14% from last Friday.

Is it? A whole $14%. I hadn’t noticed.

Since you didn’t take the opportunity to stop your trolling, consider the olive branch about to be stuck up your -

 

[Krugerrand]

Flight from the Magnificent Seven (includes TSLA) appears to have slightly upset what might have been the most profitable plan for big TSLA option writers today.

Filling ‘the gap’ > what options writers want.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781375886777831715

Shanghai production cut 30%.

Wow. So much for 2 million vehicles this year. Can we shoot for 1.5 million at least?

 

[Krugerrand]

Can't wait, good questions............But will they be answered?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781389992662577466

They’re not going to answer those questions.

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781375886777831715

Shanghai production cut 30%.

This was a reply to this post.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781393490938560658

 

[Rarity]

Tesla has filed for GF Texas to be removed from Austin's ETJ (Extra-Territorial Jurisdiction). This means that environmental oversight will revert to Travis County. So perhaps no more trees needing to be moved and similar rules. I assume that also means that building permits and development plans will revert to Travis County, but the article doesn't mention those specifically.

I always wondered why Austin had at least partial jurisdiction over GF Texas and this explains why. This could have a big impact on what Tesla does with the horse farm, assuming that Tesla is the owner of that property. It also could impact how much leeway The Boring Company has on its boring operations, as one example (although it may be better for them to have the Austin city government become familiar with their operations).

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/tesla-austin-gigafactory-19409983.php

 

[Rarity]

I’ve explained that in recent threads. I simply realized they’ve stopped the superb marketing expertise they once had, displayed to excellent results in China where the practices were most advanced but in much of EU and NA too.

Recent attacks on numerous regulatory and influencers did not augur well, either.

This is nothing like the Neroden personal pique.

If my memory serves, you were also at one time an investor in SpaceX. Assuming that is true, did you also exit your SpaceX position for similar reasons? I have been following the ads trials and have wondered whether the Tesla and Starlink efforts are informing one another or are similarly inefficient in non-obvious ways.