Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Energy is a commodity and is treated like any utility company. It's not an avenue for high profit IMHO. Real Estate & Battery on the other hand....

You do realize a part of Tesla is called Tesla Energy, right?

When "energy" is referred to in this forum, it is most often in regard to the production and sale of Tesla's energy products and services.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Going into earnings , always remember - Elon is his worst enemy .

The Chancery Court of Delaware is your worst enemy.

 

[Drumheller]

Didn't someone mention recently that if this was the news today, the stock would dump?
No comment, just observing.

I saw that and I believe the comment was along the lines of: releasing the new high end model 3 today would be a sign that Tesla is attempting to soften a terrible earnings report. I don't recall who wrote that post.

It may be accurate. We will know in a few hours.

 

[stef]

Didn't someone mention recently that if this was the news today, the stock would dump?
No comment, just observing.

Yep that's me. I didn't say it stock would dump, only that it will look an obvious attempt to distract from a bad ER, and that the attempt will most likely fail.
High chance that this good news will stay on the news for no more than 4 hours, and be replaced very quickly by any shortfall in the Earning Report.
I really hope I'm wrong, but will find out in few hours.

 

[Ellec]

I saw that and I believe the comment was along the lines of: releasing the new high end model 3 today would be a sign that Tesla is attempting to soften a terrible earnings report. I don't recall who wrote that post.

It may be accurate. We will know in a few hours.

Yeah that's what I remembered, was like trying to preempt it.

 

[Ellec]

Yep that's me. I didn't say it stock would dump, only that it will look an obvious attempt to distract from a bad ER, and that the attempt will most likely fail.
High chance that this good news will stay on the news for no more than 4 hours, and be replaced very quickly by any shortfall in the Earning Report.
I really hope I'm wrong, but will find out in few hours.

I can hear the Knives sharpening from here, damning headlines poised to be unleashed on the stroke of the report being released.

 

[GhostSkater]

The Canada version says 460hp. Is that normal to have 2 different HP/performance?

Yes, one has the pack with Panasonic cells, seems like only in the US, and the other with LG cells for the rest of the world

 

[uscbucsfan]

What can really be in the ER that we don't already know? I think there was already some hinting that the free flow cash will be down. We know the deliveries...Outside of Elon saying something like "Robotaxi will be the only thing going forward and we won't make consumer cars anyone (won't happen)" is there anything that people are really worried about other than bad mood Elon?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Didn't someone mention recently that if this was the news today, the stock would dump?

No, I think they mentioned that they would dump their stock. That's okay, because Omar's buying.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I can hear the Knives sharpening from here, damning headlines poised to be unleashed on the stroke of the report being released.

If Tesla posts a modest profit it goes a long way in neutering the bad news regarding price cuts, inventory and layoffs.

Especially since Wall Street wants to believe Tesla is going to post a loss. A small profit or a modest one does not change the narrative but shuts it up for a while.

 

[GatorMeat]

Wow…tensions are high. The reality is times are tough here, and human nature is to blame something or someone. The reality is no ONE thing or ONE person is to blame, and nobody here or elsewhere knows where the stock is headed. Focus on what Tesla is doing and the markets they’re serving. Then decide whether or not you want to own the stock.

For those wanting to blame Elon and now vote against his compensation package, I’d ask you to reconsider. Elon is not perfect, his aim is to be less wrong, but what Tesla has accomplished under his leadership is nothing short of amazing. They are an established, profitable EV automaker with a worldwide charging network, and incredible UI and autonomy software that can scale to nearly its entire fleet. No other company is even close to matching this. Tesla would not be here if it weren’t for Elon and it’s only right to follow through and award him the compensation package shareholders approved.

I'm casting 7,432 votes against Elon's comp plan. Why?

1.) Tesla financials/market value no longer match the comp plan metrics.

2.) Elon is a part time CEO and both he and his bro have sold off stock in an amount almost equal to the comp plan.

3.) Elon has since steered TSLA to an over 60% dump since he sold off an amount equal to the comp plan.

3. Kimbal is up for re-election. Even if you believe that Kimbal is qualified, this isn't pono.

3.) 'Tesla AI Day" "Tesla Battery Day". Lot's of hype to get investors excited to buy more stock. And it worked. Yet most of the content in these talks that were to be achieved by now are still unknown when they will be achieved.
Robotaxis by end of 2020?
$30k profit/year per Tesla owned?
$200k npv per Tesla?
100 GWh of 4680/year?
Semis in 2020?

4.) The judge may have very well overstepped her bounds in rescinding the comp plan, but given a second chance, no way can a rational person decide the CEO deserves $56B. The BOD has cashed out billions, the CEO hyped the company leading up to his $40B cash out, and hasn't given one care to the over $700B shareholder.

5.) I'm not as skeptical and I am more suseptical to fantasical claims than I thought.

6.) I once had "ELON" on my license plate, but let it expire in 2021 bc Elon was showing that he wasn't the person I thought he was. I wish I would have also lost faith in the company and sold out at that time too.

 

[Knightshade]

. Tesla will have 80 GW hours of annual capacity by Q2 2025

I don't think that's at all accurate unless you mean "theoretical capacity much further in the future".... the existing CA factory still hasn't fully ramped yet after starting to in 2022. The second factory (in China) isn't going to start ramping production until 2025.

So 0% chance they're at 80 (max at both factories) in the timeframe you suggest- nor any chance they exceed the 100gw/yr Tesla auto did in 2023 by end of 2025.

And Clean Vehicle Credit eligible!
Which makes it cheaper than LR AWD.

Yeah, very surprising... I think they've GOT to either cut pricing significantly on the LR AWD, or just take it off the menu like they did a while back... what's the point of it existing at current price and no IRA credit?

 

[uscbucsfan]

Conversion or test differences SAE->metric->SAE.

No. It's a different battery and is lower HP.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

We’ll probably find out the average run rate of the cybertruck for the first quarter today. It would be nice to find out what the present run rate is just to see how things are improving.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If Tesla posts a modest profit it goes a long way in neutering the bad news regarding price cuts, inventory and layoffs.

Especially since Wall Street wants to believe Tesla is going to post a loss. A small profit or a modest one does not change the narrative but shuts it up for a while.

Are the consensus WS estimates really having Tesla posting a loss? Last i checked, it was something like 0.48 EPS.

 

[Drax7]

I'm casting 7,432 votes against Elon's comp plan. Why?

1.) Tesla financials/market value no longer match the comp plan metrics.

2.) Elon is a part time CEO and both he and his bro have sold off stock in an amount almost equal to the comp plan.

3.) Elon has since steered TSLA to an over 60% dump since he sold off an amount equal to the comp plan.

3. Kimbal is up for re-election. Even if you believe that Kimbal is qualified, this isn't pono.

3.) 'Tesla AI Day" "Tesla Battery Day". Lot's of hype to get investors excited to buy more stock. And it worked. Yet most of the content in these talks that were to be achieved by now are still unknown when they will be achieved.
Robotaxis by end of 2020?
$30k profit/year per Tesla owned?
$200k npv per Tesla?
100 GWh of 4680/year?
Semis in 2020?

4.) The judge may have very well overstepped her bounds in rescinding the comp plan, but given a second chance, no way can a rational person decide the CEO deserves $56B. The BOD has cashed out billions, the CEO hyped the company leading up to his $40B cash out, and hasn't given one care to the over $700B shareholder.

5.) I'm not as skeptical and I am more suseptical to fantasical claims than I thought.

6.) I once had "ELON" on my license plate, but let it expire in 2021 bc Elon was showing that he wasn't the person I thought he was. I wish I would have also lost faith in the company and sold out at that time too.

Propaganda

 

[FreqFlyer]

Are the consensus WS estimates really having Tesla posting a loss? Last i checked, it was something like 0.48 EPS.

Saw some financial news articles or "hope" articles that Tesla would post a loss this quarter.

 

[GatorMeat]

More motivation with a friendly reminder to vote your shares:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782285934643630582

Just a friendly reminder that the Delaware chancery court effectively has more corporate voting power than millions of $TSLA shareholders.

This was one of the 'voices' telling everyone in 2020-22 to never sell and live off 1% margin loans. I don't think he should be listened to anymore. How young and inexperienced do you have to be to understand how bad of an idea that was. And him and Bruce were presenting it as a retirement strategy. How many shareholders were wiped out in 2023 because they listened to these fools who were/are in it for fame?

 

[GatorMeat]

Propaganda

FACTS. Smart 'investors' who voted yes in 2018 would be out of the stock and not even have a vote. Unfortunately, I'm not one of them, but I'm recently tilted to voting 'NO' or not voting at all.

 

[Ellec]

This was one of the 'voices' telling everyone in 2020-22 to never sell and live off 1% margin loans. I don't think he should be listened to anymore. How young and inexperienced do you have to be to understand how bad of an idea that was. And him and Bruce were presenting it as a retirement strategy. How many shareholders were wiped out in 2023 because they listened to these fools who were/are in it for fame?

How can they be wiped out unless they were using leverage/options?