Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Southpasfan]

Well, how about this one:

1. Ride share app like uber but better and you need a Tesla with FSD to be a driver.

2 For however long it takes, driver is in the car.

3. at robotaxi time- first shot is to existing drivers

4 at full ramp no drivers.

Actually makes sense considering how FSD itself ramps slowly - why not just start ride share now?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Mommy?
View attachment 1041104

Haha, Cathie Wood pre-Bitcoin.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I never thought about this. But Tesla is clearly building a ride hailing app that is competitor to Uber. It announced it at earnings call.
Tech stack of a ride hailing app is easy/Okay level of difficulty to create. But operations is tricky to get right. Takes some effort to get the operations right.

Would be interesting to see TSLA quickly build this service with test pilot drivers. Was a part of an early project within FREE NOW (Uber of Europe) and DAIMLER for autonomous. Working for a ride hailing is an interesting experience.

Here is some data I compiled.

Public Ride-Hailing Companies (as of April 2024):

1. Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) - Market Cap: $147 billion
2. Lyft, Inc. (NASDAQ: LYFT) - Market Cap: $6 billion
3. Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: GRAB) - Market Cap: $13B billion
4. Didi Global Inc. (NYSE: DIDI) - Market Cap: $25.2 billion

Total Market Cap of Public Ride-Hailing Companies: $192 billionPrivate Ride-Hailing Companies (last known valuations as of August 2023):

1. Ola Cabs (India) - Last Known Valuation: $7.3 billion
2. Gojek (Indonesia) - Last Known Valuation: $10 billion
3. Bolt (Estonia) - Last Known Valuation: $4.75 billion
4. inDriver (USA) - Last Known Valuation: $1.23 billion
5. Cabify (Spain) - Last Known Valuation: $1.4 billion
   6. FREE NOW (Europe) - Last Known Valuation ±$1 billion

Total Ride Hailing Market Cap ±220 B.

The important question is, What percentage of Ride Hailing valuation could Tesla capture soon?

They announced it in 2019. Come on lol.

 

[Congo Line]

This concern always confuses me.

BMWs 2 series didn't osborne its 3 series, nor the 3 the 5 series.... The corolla doesn't osborne the camry... Heck the Avalon doesn't osborn the ES.

People LIKE having cars in slightly different size and price classes- the fact they look similar to each other otherwise doesn't seem to prevent both from finding customers.

True but those cars look similar yet different. Also I don't think they are built on the same line. Whereas Elon loves to simplify and have minimal variation between builds. Guess we'll have to just wait and see.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Even the software back end was teased today.

There was a lot in those screen images and I suspect they were material in today’s melt up. People in general are not great at picturing things till they see them. I’ve been telling people for a while, Tesla don’t need Uber, the ride hail app is the easy bit.

- set your own temperature, choose your own music
So already people can see how autonomy adds value. You’re hiring the space, it’s all yours. They’ve beaten Uber already without charging less.

- four seats
You’re not going to look like a dork riding a gizmomobile

And of course the screenshots prove seriousness. They’ve started. It’s probably a functioning version, in testing.

 

[Knightshade]

Lol, why tag me? Why not at Troy or that Tyrone dude? They're the ones that didn't believe Tesla had installed production capacity over 2.5 million vehicles per year at the end of 2023.

This is (at least) the 4th outright false claim you've been caught at today alone--- what is up lately my dude?

Troy said Tesla lacked 2.5M in demand. Not capacity.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/q1-2023-tesla-2-80007118

That's Troy back in Q1 2023 citing Shanghai capacity at 1.056 million- and we know there's been upgrades since.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506069365996896262

That's Troy citing Berlin capacity at 500k

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750332444547428616

That's Troy in Q1 24 citing ~560k Fremont production (with capacity being higher obviously)

Added together that's Troy citing capacity already above 2.1 million without including Austin at all which everyone (incl. Troy) knows is >400k capacity (not ramped production) between Y and CT alone.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA is increasing after investors read my forum post. Now up to $162

Folks, I was just kidding, I am not privvy to that confidential hiring information... oh my what have I done

Yeah, with our luck you wanted Rob Maurer but we'll get that tourette's bloke with three first names...

 

[skybluecgreen]

Sawyer Merritt thinks the new vehicle slated for end of year/early 2025 will be the refreshed Model Y with other new models to follow later. That would be disappointing:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782948693466866042

 

[Knightshade]

True but those cars look similar yet different.

Same sausage, different lengths.

Honestly the new Performance 3 looks more different from the regular 3 than these two entirely different "models" of BMW do (2 vs 4 series)

 

[SOULPEDL]

Mr. Market is happy so far...

View attachment 1041062

Fun Fact: It was about 1 PM and just before this post that all of my ignore folks disappeared. It was that fast, and definitely nothing after this post above! I never did post this list, wasn't my style. But I compared with a few here and mine was on the shorter side apparently. Like I said earlier, it was the worst I'd ever seen.

Reminds me of Florida living in some mobile home as a kid in HS with my crazy brother. One day we came in at night, turn on the kitchen lights, and watch about 500 cockroaches disappear in 2 sec flat. They couldn't have cleared out any faster than had we been in space and I opened the doors and windows!

We moved out next day... and into a tent next door. It wasn't too bad with mattresses, showers and storage at the neighbors for $10/wk each. Disco was big then, and we were Stayin' Alive!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon: "We're putting the 'auto' into 'automobile'"

"Autonomobile" - Black Rock CEO Larry fink, CNBC TV, last week.

Fun Fact: It was about 1 PM and just before this post that all of my ignore folks disappeared.

What time is that in St Petersburg? I'm guessing 9:00 p.m. shift change?

 

[elasalle]

Sawyer Merritt thinks the new vehicle slated for end of year/early 2025 will be the refreshed Model Y with other new models to follow later. That would be disappointing:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782948693466866042

Refresh wouldn’t be called new vehicles in my books
Cheers!!

 

[Singuy]

Sawyer Merritt thinks the new vehicle slated for end of year/early 2025 will be the refreshed Model Y with other new models to follow later. That would be disappointing:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782948693466866042

So a refreshed model 3 cost 60k and a refreshed MY cost 25k?

Makes sense...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Any challengers? This is current IRA. Wasn't there a 99% out there recently?

I'm still expecting a down draft tomorrow, but quick then gone (total guess, expecting the worst).
It's like the axe murderer who you thought was dead in that movie... and he's back for the 4th time.

"Autonomobile" - Black Rock CEO Larry fink, CNBC TV, last week.

What time is that in St Petersburg? I'm guessing 9:00 p.m. shift change?

Florida or Russia?
Ah-ha! I'm guessing you're in Ontario then. (Or you're a darn good bilingual.) Did ya happen to visit those Gardens long ago?
I'm in Arizona USA, it was basically after the close. Poof! But there's one I see sticking around, trying to shake a few more perhaps.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So a refreshed model 3 cost 60k and a refreshed MY cost 25k?

Makes sense...

Maybe there's a reason Waymo always used larger SUVs.
I believe it's about having more use-cases for the suit-cases.

 

[2daMoon]

What if that word, hybrid, doesn't mean to Tesla what folks think it means?

What if by hybrid, they are talking about making the cars total drive by wire (steer, brake, accelerate) so that any vehicle can be either equipped for a driver, or, manufactured as driverless? Sharing parts across/between models to achieve this.

Imagine if every vehicle produced after some date is built as completely convertible?

Sure, there still would be a need for a dedicated Robotaxi, purpose built for the Urban duties. But any of the other models would be more comfortable for long-distance travel.

Just a thought that's been bouncing in my head since reading that term in the report. Probably nothing to it.

 

[Doggydogworld]

They stated in plain English that they have capacity for up to 3 million vehicles,

"This would help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles"

The stated capacity today is greater than 2,350,000. How much greater? We don't know, but they lowball Shanghai by at least 100k and the existing ">125k" Cybertruck line is designed for 250k. That adds 225k expected capacity. Berlin and TX Model Y capacity are listed at >375k and >250k, respectively. They were built about the same time and were often referred to as 500k factories (at least the early phases). That adds another 375k.

2,350k current capacity
+225k Shanghai, CT
+375k Berlin and Austin Y
----------
2,975k total expected capacity

and intend to increase production by 50% over the 1.8 million vehicles which were delivered in 2023.

No time frame given. 2024 will be roughly flat y/y. Growth will resume in 2025. Growth rate is very much TBD and depends on how differentiated the "new models" are from 3/Y.

It's a low risk high reward strategy that keeps the engines of production running, while the company works towards a robotaxi future.

Indeed. It won't generate the kind of growth Model 2 could have, plus it creates manufacturing and logistics issues. But it should create some growth at least and more fully utilize their existing factories.

 

[WattsHappening]

Long form conversation with Jason Cammisa discussing his experience with the new Ludicrous M3. He LOVES it. His overall opinion is this is now the best performance sedan in its class on the market, easily beating the BMW M3, Mercedes and Audis. The Japanese vehicles in this class aren't even competitive. The only negative thing he had to say was he hates the turn signal buttons.

Spoiler: if you don't want to be tempted to buy the new Ludicrous M3, don't watch this video.

 

[growler23]

Starlink + Distributed inference compute farm all controlled by Tesla. Could be another whole business. It wont be suitable for a lot of workloads that would traditionally use AWS/Azure etc but for a lot it might be a option if they get the pricing right.

Here's a similar thought: when you plug in to Supercharge, you automatically start computing for the duration. Lowers your cost of the charge by X amount. The SC locations will be the network base stations (remote ones might indeed use Starlink). Can be disabled as an option in the car settings.

 

[Todd Burch]

Ok this time is not Elon that tank the share it’s the conclusion with the départ of xx that kill this good earning call

Do you ever get embarrassed by your own posts?