I also remember ‘No’From the transcript:
I could have sworn the answer was "No."? Which is correct?
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I also remember ‘No’From the transcript:
I could have sworn the answer was "No."? Which is correct?
I have to admit I feel better about Tesla's short term direction after the call (long term I wasn't too concerned). I just wanted clarification on the Model 2 situation and now we have it, and while the plan has changed as its now more of a Model 2.5, not fully unboxed but using existing lines, its a good logical plan and its even coming sooner than expected. Superlative news.
And the call itself was one of the best I've ever heard by Tesla. Clear audio, no big blunders, good questions answered competently, it just was very confident and positive.
Yeah, yesterday was a good day.
Oops, you did not go to the bottom:There was positive free cash flow for the quarter from operations $250m before capex 0f $2.5b
Adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 b
most of my disengagements are due to my "unsafe" impatienceAs a cyclist, love to see this, impressive. One advantage of AI over humans: It is always patient.
Something that I have to scratch my head a bit and would love some input
Why focusing on reducing the production cost of Robotaxi is so important? For a vehicle that will run 100's of thousand of miles, maybe over a million miles and bring revenues multiples of the cost it takes to build it, why going unboxed on it and not exclusively for the consumer one? This is the one low cost matters most no?
Innovators dilemma playing out for legacy OEMs in a slow motion train wreck... they deserve to fail at this pointI’ve been around EVs and relentlessly watching Tesla for 15 years now, so you may have missed this.
EV growth didn’t slow as a sector because OEMs suddenly realized in the last year that EVs don’t work. Anyone who’s owned one for the last few years already knows that EVs out on the roads are superior to ICE vehicles for the majority of drivers in nearly every way.
The reason other OEMs have basically abandoned EVs is because they realized they haven’t figured out how to make money on them like Tesla has.
When interest rates went up, and then Tesla lowered their prices, they basically gave up. Ford, VW, and the rest couldn’t make money at the higher price points. So how are they going to compete after Tesla lowered prices dramatically and is still making 18.5% gross margins on vehicles?
What we saw in the last year was capitulation by the traditional OEMs.
That won’t hurt Ford or VW yet. It actually improves their bottom line. They think short term, so this will help them continue to be profitable while interest rates are high.
But when rates come back down, and the cost of gas/petrol takes another leg up, the OEMs will get caught again with their pants down.
They will have wasted another X years not innovating in the EV space, while Tesla continues nose to the grindstone.
I actually see what’s happening right now with other OEMs as stage 3 of their own demise.
Stage 1 was “Ignore Tesla.” They pretended like Tesla was a fad.
Stage 2 was “The competition is coming.” OEMs gave their best shot, put out some EVs. But they were mediocre and unprofitable. Then interest rates shot up and Tesla dropped prices, so they want back to their core business (ICE) because that’s where they were profitable.
Stage 3 is “Ignore the elephant in the room.” Again pretend Tesla’s not there, focus on short term profits, and get past this period of higher interest rates.
Stage 4 is going to be ugly for them.
The winners are the ones who prepare for the future. The rest of the OEMs are doing a great job preparing for the now.
Completely ignored that part, good callThink less about costs and more about volume manufacturing. The unboxed line will be able to build cars FAST. And easily compared to current lines. Plus the greater human access on the line will enable Optimus bots to be easily dropped on the line once they are ready, where humanoids would have a difficult time working many stations on the M3/MY lines right now.
I'm pretty sure the Model 2.5 will go unboxed eventually too, I think they're comprising in the short term by using existing lines just to utilize existing capex better and be more financially efficient in these hard times.
Absolutely. Aren't the regulatory credits in the billions now? Or mere hundreds of millions?Something occurred to me when I woke up after this call...
Tesla's 'competitors' are currently doing three things to help Tesla:
Big shout out to the ICE developers who are working around the clock to improve Tesla's financials .
- Switching away from EVs so Tesla can build even more market share
- Making hybrids so they have to give Tesla more money in regulatory credits
- Reducing demand for batteries, so that Tesla's COG per vehicle go down.
Something that I have to scratch my head a bit and would love some input
Why focusing on reducing the production cost of Robotaxi is so important? For a vehicle that will run 100's of thousand of miles, maybe over a million miles and bring revenues multiples of the cost it takes to build it, why going unboxed on it and not exclusively for the consumer one? This is the one low cost matters most no?
If a Robotaxi costs $50k or even $100k to build, with the projected revenues it will generate seems like a non issue
Maybe it's just a timing problem, making Robotaxi today makes no sense since the software isn't ready, and we need new consumer facing vehicles ASAP
Or I'm just overthinking since any vehicle can be a Robotaxi, specially removing the steering wheel and pedals, so the more expensive Robotaxi is just the current line up without driver interface
1) Market size: lower cost means lower prices, making it more than a cheaper taxi. A _lot_ more revenue is available if you can replace private ownership and rental.Something that I have to scratch my head a bit and would love some input
Why focusing on reducing the production cost of Robotaxi is so important? For a vehicle that will run 100's of thousand of miles, maybe over a million miles and bring revenues multiples of the cost it takes to build it, why going unboxed on it and not exclusively for the consumer one? This is the one low cost matters most no?
If a Robotaxi costs $50k or even $100k to build, with the projected revenues it will generate seems like a non issue
Maybe it's just a timing problem, making Robotaxi today makes no sense since the software isn't ready, and we need new consumer facing vehicles ASAP
Or I'm just overthinking since any vehicle can be a Robotaxi, specially removing the steering wheel and pedals, so the more expensive Robotaxi is just the current line up without driver interface
These offerings are proving to be very popular in many countries, by observations only, it seems these are much more prevalent in middle income countries where delivery became ubiquitous during the Covid-19 crisis. One of my nephews invested in one of those in 2020, and it has been highly successful. Another acquaintance did the same thing in Shenzen and is now very prosperous.Same goes for “Grab”; we’re in Thailand atm and it is great for ride hailing, but has several other services too… not everywhere, but in most population centres and growing.
Thank you for the shout out and acknowledgment. It’s appreciated.Me too.
It is fascinating how after this conference call it seems like a cloud has been lifted.
While these past few weeks have been trying, nobody has been more steady and reassuring than @Krugerrand. He is one cool cat.
Something that I have to scratch my head a bit and would love some input
Why focusing on reducing the production cost of Robotaxi is so important? For a vehicle that will run 100's of thousand of miles, maybe over a million miles and bring revenues multiples of the cost it takes to build it, why going unboxed on it and not exclusively for the consumer one? This is the one low cost matters most no?
If a Robotaxi costs $50k or even $100k to build, with the projected revenues it will generate seems like a non issue
Maybe it's just a timing problem, making Robotaxi today makes no sense since the software isn't ready, and we need new consumer facing vehicles ASAP
Or I'm just overthinking since any vehicle can be a Robotaxi, specially removing the steering wheel and pedals, so the more expensive Robotaxi is just the current line up without driver interface
Only $442M for Q1. (Higher than Q4 on fewer delivered vehicles.)Absolutely. Aren't the regulatory credits in the billions now? Or mere hundreds of millions?
The US government is forcing ICE to donate to Tesla like crazy. What happened to all the analysts who said "regulatory credits will dry up by 2020/21/22"? What is the gross margin on those credits
I agree with this. That position by traditional auto manufacturers is why you can now read the same thing, over and over, in media columns from 'independent' auto industry commentators that EV sales are on the 'decline', that people are not buying EVs because of concerns about EV expense, range, reliability, and the insufficiency of charging networks, that consequently EVs are just 'not ready' yet, and that if you feel you have to go electric you are better off in a hybrid from the traditional manufacturers. Clearly all those 'independent' commentators received those talking points last year and are busy getting the message across on behalf of the traditional manufacturers that are actually paying their bills. It is almost comical how consistent and strident the message has become. And I do think that messaging is having some effect, and that Tesla and other EV advocates recently have done a mediocre job in countering it. But I doubt that messaging will ultimately prevail because it is based on distortions and, sometimes, outright falsehoods. In the meantime, however, stay tuned for more of the same talking points from and on behalf of traditional manufacturers as they desperately try to protect their turf by undermining and delaying the EV transition.[…]
The reason other OEMs have basically abandoned EVs is because they realized they haven’t figured out how to make money on them like Tesla has.
When interest rates went up, and then Tesla lowered their prices, they basically gave up. Ford, VW, and the rest couldn’t make money at the higher price points. So how are they going to compete after Tesla lowered prices dramatically and is still making 18.5% gross margins on vehicles?
What we saw in the last year was capitulation by the traditional OEMs.
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