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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Oh Mr. Chanos, what have you done :) Shouldn't have shorted $TSLA:

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I wonder if he'll be gaoled. Is it wrong to hope so?

I certainly hope his minions go unpaid & the propaganda against Tesla dies down a little.

I predict that another two short sellers will bite the dust soon. It always goes in threes.
 
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Coincidence where Elon has gone the last 2 years or so. Thing about long term and short term if you let the world cut back on short term it has an effect on long term. When does short term become long term? 2017-2018 when Elon was more concerned is going to be a decade soon. If the people he now supports win elections the gains we have made will start to be reversed or attempted to be reversed. They have had a damn good 12-24 months slowing the EV transition, do you think they will stop. It is a terrible sign that even with a new model in the US it looks like Tesla EV sales will be flat or lower in 2024.
Agreed. I would guess in 2030 tesla will be producing similar or marginally more vehicles than it is now. I think storage will become the main business. And I doubt they will be in the supercharger business within 3 years.
 

Sorry if the formatting gets mangled, but I thought it was worth copy-pasting the tweet from The Limiting Factor for easy reading directly on the forum:

---Begin Copy-Paste---
Tesla appears to be switching from Saueressing to PNT for their dry electrode manufacturing equipment

From what I can tell, this is based on an interview at a conference. That's linked in the thread below.

PNT is a South-Korea based provider of R2R(roll-to-roll) processing equipments such as coaters, calenders, and slitters.

PNT says that Tesla is switching to them as a supplier because Saueressig can't create equipment in volume like they can.

Does this mean Tesla has solved or will soon solve dry coating for the cathode? Not sure.

But, they appear to be ramping output to Tesla:

Comment #1 which suggests different strategies are required for the anode and cathode

"Q: Then can’t I make the anode using the same equipment that used to make the cathode?

A: No. The material is completely different. Settings also vary.

"Comment #2 which may hint at reduced output at Austin, but indicates 1 TWh remains the goal for Tesla?"

Q: What is the capacity of the Giga Texas plant?

A: Plant 1 has a capacity of 40 gigawatt hours.

Q: How full is Factory 1?

A: It seems like about two-thirds of the lines are currently laid.

Q: What is the situation at Factory 2?

A: We are planning a second factory, and our official goal is 1,000 gigawatt hours.

"Comment #3 which indicates PNT is well underway supplying equipment, and that they expect strong growth for Tesla

Q: PNT has already signed a contract and is producing?

A: Yes, I expect to move to the US in the first half of the year or next month.

Q: Are there any expectations for additional orders?

A: There is a high possibility that double the volume will be released within the year.

---End Copy Paste---
 
I don’t think the board is worried about the EM compensation package passing again. I think they are worried that the move of incorporation to Texas won’t pass, because it needs 50% plus 1 of all shares outstanding (not just a majority of the shares voting).
I’m not sure I see the point on voting again on his pay package. The judge didn’t like it the first time and thought he was paid to much. Why would that change with another vote. It appears it’s ultimately her decision what he will be paid. Weird.
 
So basically the Musk's are voting no?
[/QUOTE]
Not really.

For the comp vote, I believe they are voting yes and therefore it passes more easily under the first 2 standards. However, their votes aren't part of the denominator under the 3rd standard (which requires a vote of the majority of the non-Musk shares). Since it's not in the denominator, it's really a non-issue under that standard.

For the incorporation vote, again, they vote yes and that helps the measure pass under the first "Conversion Standard" which requires an absolute majority of shares. However, Tesla still needs a majority of the non-Musk shares to pass under the second "Conversion disinterested standard.

To simply both, here's out it would work if Tesla receives the vote of 100% of the shares (and just for the sake of clarity assuming that the Musks own 15% of the shares).

For comp, it needs to pass all 3 standards:

- Majority of shares that voted on the proposal. So, standard met with Musk 15% plus >35% more "Yes".

- Majority of the shares present and entitled to vote. Effectively same as the first standard under my assumptions. But if the assumptions are altered somewhat and there are abstentions, these would be counted as "no."

- Majority of the non-Musk shares that voted. So, standard met with >42.5% of all shares voting "Yes".

Stated in the alternative, 42.5% of total shares voting "No" will kill the proposal under any scenario.


Texas reincorporation is simplified somewhat and only needs to pass 2 standards:

- Hard majority of shares. So, standard met with Musk 15% plus >35% more "Yes".

- Majority of non-Musk shares present and entitled to vote. So, standard met with >42.5% of all shares voting "Yes."

Again, stated in the alternative, assuming the Musks vote "Yes", then 42.5% of all shares voting "No" (or, in this case, abstaining) will kill the proposal.
 
My small contribution to Q2.

I have refrained from buying FSD because I’m cheap and need the value prop to be worthwhile. After trying v12.3.6, I now believe the value is there. I expect I won’t be the only long term Tesla owner deciding to finally get FSD this quarter.


IMG_7068.png
 
My small contribution to Q2.

I have refrained from buying FSD because I’m cheap and need the value prop to be worthwhile. After trying v12.3.6, I now believe the value is there. I expect I won’t be the only long term Tesla owner deciding to finally get FSD this quarter.


View attachment 1051671

If it helps - it looks like, hopefully, I will be an Electrical Panel and Solar contribution to Q2 revenue.
 
And then this shows up in the later part of the opening (not the first update of the day, and not selling since there was none to start with).
Hello Mr. 190. Welcome ;)

1717009300702.png

Earlier today....
1717009357992.png


See?


Edit.... Proof: Yesterday's Open Interest below, no 190 to speak of there...
There's a reason this Mad Max Pain site shuts down. Just not sure what that is quite yet...

1717010004861.png
 
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This is what happens when you lose your family's wealth on calls, you turn into this guy:

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Autobidder is genuinely an odd thing to include in that list. It exists, it works, and it seems to be a major selling point for Tesla's commercial energy offerings like Megapack:


Even Fred hailed it as a success: Tesla's little-known Autobidder product has already made over $330 million for energy investors
 
Possibly, the symbol search was failing with a link to TDAmeritrade so they may be using it as the source.
Thanks y'all. I don't follow cuz I'm only just now realizing.... there are other max pain sites??? WOT?
I just think it's possible that data access is being "managed" since the motivation would exist fir sertin.
Just watching from high level myself.
 

This is because good evals are very difficult to build - at Tesla I probably spent 1/3 of my time on data, 1/3 on evals, and 1/3 on everything else. They have to be comprehensive, representative, of high quality, and measure gradient signal (i.e. not too easy, not too hard), and there are a lot of details to think through and get right before your qualitative and quantitative assessments line up.

Imo many focus a bit too much on the compute and data, when the fine tuned evals are also very important. I think one of the main reasons Tesla got FSD V12 to work so well is because they iterated like crazy on evals on the end2end with learnings from iterating on evals from the V11 perception stack.