Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Doggydogworld]

Here in europe THERE ARE NO PURE GAS/DIESEL CARS FOR SALE. Only hybrids or EVs.

BEVs were 13% of light vehicle sales in Europe from January-April this year, PHEVs another 8%
HEVs were 30% in April and close to that YTD
Conventional Diesel (~12%) and petrol make up the rest.

BEV+PHEV share has been 20% give or take since 2021. It will jump to 30% next year when EU 95g's next leg kicks in.

Not quite as “devastating”.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798337479449416056

2023 was "wavier", though. Q2 Europe sales are trending to be down 25% or more y/y. I don't know why.

In this partial recession we are experiencing (cars, housing, ...) car sales are down all over the world.

Not really. Vehicle sales are up YTD in the US and Europe and forecast to grow a percent or two this year. China and ROW are forecast to grow even more.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Interesting prediction from Elon on FSD.

Text:

Two other versions are in earlier stages of testing: 12.5 and 12.6, which could be called v14 and v15. We are starting to get to the point where, once known bugs are fixed, it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798374945644277841

I wish he'd stop saying stuff like that. Let the software speak for itself. When he makes bold predictions like that, my eyes roll given his previous predictions about FSD.

 

[dhrivnak]

I would settle for a few hours on city streets.

Heck not sure I have even gotten 30 minutes.

 

[philw1776]

Yet again?

 

[Todd Burch]

Germany sales certainly tanked. Is Tesla not offering any incentives there?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798307370600472889

I'll repeat this for the 307th time, and for the 7th year.

Results from one country and one month are meaningless when trying to estimate total Tesla results. They may indicate something, but may not. It may have something to do with Tesla, or it may not.

Literally sales could drop 90% for a specific country just because Tesla might decide to make a huge batch of Scandinavian-bound cars. Such production could take a significant portion of a month alone. You just can't draw any conclusions about it.

Maybe the train full of deliveries went east instead of west.

(Edit: The 2024 year-to-date numbers are obviously available, which is something that is more reasonable to draw conclusions about).

 

[Usain]

This is great. The one year of driving between intervention average, would be absolutely amazing.

It's hard to know exactly what Elon means by,

We are starting to get to the point where, once known bugs are fixed, it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention.

Certainly, he doesn't mean it will be that way for FSD 12.4. He's talking about V14 and V15 (aka, 12.5 and 12.6).

What I find very encouraging is the manner in which Elon is describing FSD progress as of late.

Instead of broad generalities, Elon has turned to describing FSD in terms of metrics. This means that not only is FSD progress measurable, the progress is looking really good.

Of course, we all have to wait and see. But I would argue that there is far more certainty in Elon's FSD rhetoric than ever before.

 

[EQC_]

I wish he'd stop saying stuff like that. Let the software speak for itself. When he makes bold predictions like that, my eyes roll given his previous predictions about FSD.

Agreed.

Part of the problem is that his tweet is read and interpretted by a wide range of people, and the nuance/details he may think are implied are probably going to be ignored or missed.

For example, in Elon's line:

"We are starting to get to the point where, once known bugs are fixed, it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention."

As Usain mentioned, the "over a year to get even one intervention" is probably related to v. 12.6 or even beyond...so it could just be a prediction based on early looks at far-ish future versions. But, critics are going to read the sentence as an evaluation of the current, publicly-available build...which is definitely nowhere near a year between interventions.

I also suspect that the "once known bugs are fixed" part is doing a lot of heavy lifting. There are probably a lot of known bugs, and those fixes are going to take a long while. And, while those bugs exist, people are going to be intervening multiple times a day.

It would also probably be useful if Elon was more specific about his meaning of "intervention" -- I suspect he means a critical or safety-related interventions. Minor interventions are still very frequent in many areas if you don't want to annoy other drivers. I "intervene" multiple times a day when the map data gives the car a 25mph speed limit in a 55mph zone and it starts to slow down. All I have to do is raise the speed via the scroll wheel...but I think that's still an "intervention.". (Is faulty map data is considered a "known bug?"). I also intervene to have the car behave more naturally, for example so it's quicker to pull away from stop signs when other cars are around. Not normally a safety issue...but helps to make sure other drivers aren't confused or annoyed.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Not shooting you, but love his reasoning, that despite we having multiple confirmations that 4680 production is weeks ahead of production, one of the hypothesis is that that isn't true. How people pay for this guy content is beyond me

When you sound authoritative with nose pointed way high and block users with legitimate questions/comments of skepticism you can trick people to pay for you. His guesses of production/delivery rates are not bad. His made up reason for production drop and demand drop are mostly laughable.

 

[Mengy]

Interesting prediction from Elon on FSD.

Text:

Two other versions are in earlier stages of testing: 12.5 and 12.6, which could be called v14 and v15. We are starting to get to the point where, once known bugs are fixed, it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798374945644277841

Personally I'd take that with an overly optimistic grain of salt until we can see said progress for ourselves. Soon hopefully.

 

[GOVA]

Personally I'd take that with an overly optimistic grain of salt until we can see said progress for ourselves. Soon hopefully.

I've been on 12.3.6 since it came out as test freebie. Subscribed.

I've done ~3K-4K on it now with 2 brand new large cities and their suburbs. I've had 1 legit disengagement because of a kid ran a stop light and I did not know if my car would have avoided it.

One minor complaint would be FSD's 'slow merge approach' to oncoming traffic. Besides that perceived slowness, it's done it well.

Elon actually can see and estimate non linear progress of FSD best. I've had enough proof what even 12.3.6 is great.

When he stated his predictions I appreciate it. Kolodny and Co will spin it bad for sure. I don't. I appreciate this communication.

 

[SO16]

I'll repeat this for the 307th time, and for the 7th year.

Results from one country and one month are meaningless when trying to estimate total Tesla results. They may indicate something, but may not. It may have something to do with Tesla, or it may not.

Literally sales could drop 90% for a specific country just because Tesla might decide to make a huge batch of Scandinavian-bound cars. Such production could take a significant portion of a month alone. You just can't draw any conclusions about it.

Maybe the train full of deliveries went east instead of west.

(Edit: The 2024 year-to-date numbers are obviously available, which is something that is more reasonable to draw conclusions about).

Yes I realize that and I did post another link to Europe YTD numbers that are not as bad.


Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

 

[SOULPEDL]

Decent shot of FSD revenue incoming for Q2? I smell it... Anyone already estimate this?

What's a bunch of Chinese FSD end-user license worth for Q2 TSLA Earnings? I read Tesla is shooting for 2 weeks from now to launch FSD in China.

In NA, April was the start for free 1 mo. So tack on the remaining 2 months x Est Take-rate? I'd give it >50 due to summer holidays, then tapering some.

Let's not forget the patient Cybertruck owners this quarter who paid for it even though slow in coming out.

Heck, in the lucky square, why not tack on some agreements with other auto companies (or even a whole country to fast track it) . That should do the trick. Looking forward to a great summer!

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Yes, elon has said many times that they are interested in licensing it, and has said they have had talks with a major automaker about it. This is widely know, its not speculation on my part. It has been discussed here in great detail.

Thanks. Good to know.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Heck not sure I have even gotten 30 minutes.

We are maybe 3 minutes but we are in Canada and have lots of green flashing lights at intersections. It’s full stop at any of those…well…sort of more stop go stop go stop go stop go stop go……… it’s actually hilarious. I don’t think tesla knows we have these flashing green advanced left turn thingies here.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Decent shot of FSD revenue incoming for Q2? I smell it... Anyone already estimate this?

What's a bunch of Chinese FSD end-user license worth for Q2 TSLA Earnings? I read Tesla is shooting for 2 weeks from now to launch FSD in China.

In NA, April was the start for free 1 mo. So tack on the remaining 2 months x Est Take-rate? I'd give it >50 due to summer holidays, then tapering some.

Let's not forget the patient Cybertruck owners this quarter who paid for it even though slow in coming out.

Heck, in the lucky square, why not tack on some agreements with other auto companies (or even a whole country to fast track it) . That should do the trick. Looking forward to a great summer!

Love the optimism on a day where NAZ is up 300 pts and $TSLA is up 0.00000000001

 

[AndrewZ]

I wish he'd stop saying stuff like that. Let the software speak for itself. When he makes bold predictions like that, my eyes roll given his previous predictions about FSD.

What strikes me most is that Elon is talking about still being able to and needing to intervene over a year after these bugs are fixed and presumably much further into the future if not indefinitely.

None of that jives with SAE Level 4-5 much less not needing a steering wheel or pedals with which you would need to use to intervene. Elon is describing the operation of a Level 2 ADAS long after these bugs are fixed.

 

[mongo]

What strikes me most is that Elon is talking about still being able to and needing to intervene over a year after these bugs are fixed and presumably much further into the future if not indefinitely.

None of that jives with SAE Level 4-5 much less not needing a steering wheel or pedals with which you would need to use to intervene. Elon is describing the operation of a Level 2 ADAS long after these bugs are fixed.

99.999% reliability still leaves 5 minutes a year...

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I'll repeat this for the 307th time, and for the 7th year.

Results from one country and one month are meaningless when trying to estimate total Tesla results. They may indicate something, but may not. It may have something to do with Tesla, or it may not.

Literally sales could drop 90% for a specific country just because Tesla might decide to make a huge batch of Scandinavian-bound cars. Such production could take a significant portion of a month alone. You just can't draw any conclusions about it.

Maybe the train full of deliveries went east instead of west.

(Edit: The 2024 year-to-date numbers are obviously available, which is something that is more reasonable to draw conclusions about).

Thank you. Every time someone post a drop in a XYZ country my worries bumps up a little and my blood pressure gets just a little closer to a stroke level. And then few post later someone reminds me 1 single country/city/household is meaningless. Thank you. Stroke? Not today.

 

[Mengy]

Love the optimism on a day where NAZ is up 300 pts and $TSLA is up 0.00000000001

TSLA feels stuck in the gutter, it goes down or stays flat on market up days but still goes down when the market goes down. The performance of TSLA for the year is ugly, real ugly.

I still think it will turn around in a few years, but man for the time being it hurts being a TSLA investor.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

What strikes me most is that Elon is talking about still being able to and needing to intervene over a year after these bugs are fixed and presumably much further into the future if not indefinitely.

None of that jives with SAE Level 4-5 much less not needing a steering wheel or pedals with which you would need to use to intervene. Elon is describing the operation of a Level 2 ADAS long after these bugs are fixed.

Agreed. Everybody acts like this is close to autonomy. It’s actually a pretty good level 2 ADAS and we use it whenever we can. But it’s not even remotely close to a level 4.