Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

Tesla China will launch FSD testing within two weeks:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798213974376567185

 

[cliff harris]

What TSLA investors should get from this Lora Kolodny hit piece is how unique Tesla is and how valuable Elon is to Tesla.

Like, are there any other car companies buying tens of thousands of H100s? Do other auto CEOs even know what a H100 is?

I wouldn't be surprised the total # of H100s owned by all the other auto companies combined is approximately zero.

People are worrying about some minor logistics change instead of seeing the big picture.

Agreed 100%. I think its actually quite telling that Ford, GM, Toyota, VW are not really making any genuine large scale multi-billion dollar investments in autonomy at all. Cruise is basically a side project that I suspect only still exists because cancelling it is bad PR.

This looks to me suspicously like the charging network, version 2. The same companies absolutely fumbled the need to build out a charging network, and gave up that entire huge industry entirely to Tesla, even begging Tesla to supplu adaptors so their cars could use Tesla's superior network. They are now doing the same thing with FSD. Why bother investing $5billion when you KNOW you can never catch up, and will have to write it off?
I suspect Ford will be the first to license it, and the rest, [predictably will fall like dominos.

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798153321078792331

Troy says CT isn't ramping. Concerning.

Most of May sales in the EU have been reported. It doesn't look good, especially in Germany. Probably explains the reported down time of Berlin this month.

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[FastEddieB]

Like I said before, I hate Apple and think the stock is doomed.

Hate is a pretty strong emotion to feel about a tech company. Maybe some introspection about what prompts such feelings in you is in order.

Regardless, the sentiment that Apple is “doomed” stretches back to the 1990’s, when things were in fact precarious for a while. Going forward from today? We’ll just have to see, but if the past is prologue…

 

[cliff harris]

I've worked as an apple engineer (a long time ago) and also worked in software development. Its not an irrational hate. Far from it. And the future for apple is... what? billions more on doomed car projects? a VR headset nobody was interested in? An even more gratuitously expensive corporate HQ?
Apple is laughably stagnant.

 

[Usain]

Really informative post on the Hybrid curve the Legacy's are chasing. Really puts some data around the wall Hybrids will eventually hit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797693331687739754

The full post is interesting. This is good work and I think he's basically right. Hybrids are attractive as a transition vehicle for many consumers.

I would warn that you can't use Norway as a proxy for the adoption curve in other countries. Norway created an incredible L2 and L3 charging infrastructure. Norway also made EVs super cheap both to buy and to charge. Most countries can't or won't make it so easy to switch to BEVs.

I really don't buy the "hybrids are bad" narrative. A PHEV can be a good solution for many who just aren't ready to make the switch.

But the thing that will destroy both ICE and Hybrids is price. As battery cost falls off a cliff, the price of a full battery electric car is going to keep dropping. That phenomenon will create its own EV adoption curve unlike anything we have seen before.

 

[SO16]

Germany sales certainly tanked. Is Tesla not offering any incentives there?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798307370600472889

 

[Usain]

I just got my Cybertruck invite. It starts out "As an early reservation holder...", but I'm not. I made my reservation on 6/23/20, a good seven months after the first reservations.

Anyway, nothing particularly interesting about it. Estimated delivery for the AWD version is June-August, and for the Cyberbeast is October-December. I have no interest in the Foundation package, so I'll be ignoring this.

You've had your reservation for four years. I'd still consider that "early".

Thanks for the info. This tells us about where they are in going through the old orders.

It looks like almost everyone will get the opportunity to order a Foundation Series. Then they go back to the beginning of the reservation list and start offering regular orders.

 

[hobbes]

Troy has tweeted a new Cybertruck VIN chart which implies production has been constant since end of March. Using his previous tweet for scaling, this would mean production rate is steady at 1000/week. He thinks it might be limited by 4680 cell supply or that they are trying to reduce COGS before ramping further.

Don´t kill the messenger (or the messenger´s messenger) !

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I

Agreed 100%. I think its actually quite telling that Ford, GM, Toyota, VW are not really making any genuine large scale multi-billion dollar investments in autonomy at all. Cruise is basically a side project that I suspect only still exists because cancelling it is bad PR.

This looks to me suspicously like the charging network, version 2. The same companies absolutely fumbled the need to build out a charging network, and gave up that entire huge industry entirely to Tesla, even begging Tesla to supplu adaptors so their cars could use Tesla's superior network. They are now doing the same thing with FSD. Why bother investing $5billion when you KNOW you can never catch up, and will have to write it off?
I suspect Ford will be the first to license it, and the rest, [predictably will fall like dominos.

License it? Has tesla given any indication they will license it or will it just be like the superchargers and tesla just gives access away for nothing. Elon hates moats and FSD will be a huge moat just like the supercharger network was.

 

[scaesare]

Hate is a pretty strong emotion to feel about a tech company. Maybe some introspection about what prompts such feelings in you is in order.

Regardless, the sentiment that Apple is “doomed” stretches back to the 1990’s, when things were in fact precarious for a while. Going forward from today? We’ll just have to see, but if the past is prologue…

A bunch of posts regarding my question of "What other BEV Semis of similar range are being delivered in significant volume today?" in reply to @hitchhiker

As it turns out, nobody is really doing any significant volume... and those who may be doing more than a couple hundred units are delivering trucks with significantly less range. Other than that there are plans to release models in the future, but again what volume they will ship in is unknown.

On the Semi, Tesla definitely had first-mover advantage for a while, but has given it up. I know people working for large consultancies who assist companies in green transportation / logistics initiatives. None of them are considering Tesla in their packages because Tesla isn't really delivering -- they've shipped less than 100. Other major commercial truck companies are delivering electric, hybrid and alternative fuel vehicles today.

So, I have to disagree that Tesla has given up it's first mover advantage. And I fail to see why hybrid or "alternative fuel" trucks play in to this, any more than they do for cars.

 

[scaesare]

I've worked as an apple engineer (a long time ago) and also worked in software development. Its not an irrational hate. Far from it. And the future for apple is... what? billions more on doomed car projects? a VR headset nobody was interested in? An even more gratuitously expensive corporate HQ?
Apple is laughably stagnant.

And "hate" isn't a necessarily over-the-top strong feeling for a company... I hate the fact that Apple restricts what I'm allowed to install on a device I own. I hate the removal of advanced options for the technically savvy in favor of making the UI "easier" for the masses, often with behaviors designed to be "helpful" but that instead implement things I didn't want.

I similarly hate HP's current product/policies, etc... just not at the level of hating other companies that are profiting off of the destruction of the environment, etc....

 

[dedicatedtek]

I just got my Cybertruck invite. It starts out "As an early reservation holder...", but I'm not. I made my reservation on 6/23/20, a good seven months after the first reservations.

Anyway, nothing particularly interesting about it. Estimated delivery for the AWD version is June-August, and for the Cyberbeast is October-December. I have no interest in the Foundation package, so I'll be ignoring this.

same here. my original reservation Aug 10 2020.

 

[hobbes]

Germany sales certainly tanked. Is Tesla not offering any incentives there?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798307370600472889

Tesla has 0% financing for Model Y in Germany, but who´d know if even I have to look into the fine print on the order page to find out .
Federal incentive "Umweltbonus" of 4500 EUR suddenly ended last fall.

BEVs sales in May were down 30.6% compared to May 2023:

Pressemitteilungen - Fahrzeugzulassungen im Mai 2024

Flensburg, 5. Juni 2024. 236.425 Personenkraftwagen (Pkw) wurden im Mai 2024 neu zugelassen und damit -4,3 Prozent weniger, als im Vergleichsmonat. Die Anzahl der gewerblichen Neuzulassungen nahm um -5,6 Prozent ab, ihr Anteil betrug 67,5 Prozent. Die privaten Zulassungen (32, %) gingen um -1,3...

www.kba.de

 

[Usain]

There are a few odd things about the news regarding xAI swapping Nvidia shipments with Tesla:
1. If Tesla isn't compute constrained anymore, what are they planning to do with the extra AI compute power? Getting extra "just in case" makes sense if you're a tech company with huge cash reserves and no capital-intensive R&D plans like Google or Microsoft, but Tesla? Tesla just fired a significant chunk of its workforce and put on hold big growth projects because of the lack of resources.

2. On the same line, why didn't they just sell their position in the queue? Companies are fighting over getting higher in the Nvidia queue, it doesn't make any financial sense to give up something as valuable as this and get nothing in return.

PS: I wish people wouldn't just add the cars' inference capability to some sort of total Tesla compute power. It's daft, for multiple reasons. First one is that no other company is doing it. It'd be like Apple adding your phone's AI compute or Microsoft your laptop's / PC's. Not to mention the technical limitations to actually using that inference power for a 3rd party.

1. It's FSD development that is no longer compute constrained. That is, compute is no longer the slowest part of the FSD development lifecycle. Right now, the slowest part is validation. But there are lots of reasons Tesla still needs a lot more compute. One is for training Optimus. Another is probably for training larger FSD models with more functionality. Basically, Tesla has so much need for AI training, it will always find good and profitable uses for more training compute.

2. Why would they sell their position in the queue when they could just trade with xAI? Would NVIDIA even allow it? Trading is a lot simpler and it benefits both xAI and Tesla.

 

[SO16]

Tesla has 0% financing for Model Y in Germany, but who´d know if even I have to look into the fine print on the order page to find out .
Federal incentive "Umweltbonus" of 4500 EUR suddenly ended last fall.

BEVs sales in May were down 30.6% compared to May 2023:

Pressemitteilungen - Fahrzeugzulassungen im Mai 2024

Flensburg, 5. Juni 2024. 236.425 Personenkraftwagen (Pkw) wurden im Mai 2024 neu zugelassen und damit -4,3 Prozent weniger, als im Vergleichsmonat. Die Anzahl der gewerblichen Neuzulassungen nahm um -5,6 Prozent ab, ihr Anteil betrug 67,5 Prozent. Die privaten Zulassungen (32, %) gingen um -1,3...

www.kba.de

They should definitely prominently be displaying the 0% on their website.

 

[SO16]

Not quite as “devastating”.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798337479449416056

 

[GhostSkater]

He thinks it might be limited by 4680 cell supply

Not shooting you, but love his reasoning, that despite we having multiple confirmations that 4680 production is weeks ahead of production, one of the hypothesis is that that isn't true. How people pay for this guy content is beyond me

 

[Christine69420]

Germany sales certainly tanked. Is Tesla not offering any incentives there?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798307370600472889

In this partial recession we are experiencing (cars, housing, ...) car sales are down all over the world. I would think local/regional differences causes some to be hit harder than others. Germany removing government incentives a while back if I remember correctly.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Not shooting you, but love his reasoning, that despite we having multiple confirmations that 4680 production is weeks ahead of production, one of the hypothesis is that that isn't true. How people pay for this guy content is beyond me

It does raise an interesting point though. I wonder what the production ramp hold up is. I doubt it’s demand. Some other supply chain hold up on a key widget maybe? Who knows.