Doggydogworld
Active Member
He said 10x P/E. He also expects earnings to fall 50% this year, to around $1.50.
10 * 1.50 = 15.00
Ford market cap is 47b with current assets of 121b.
How dare Mr. Lekander question 1 billion bots a year on Mars.....
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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10 * 1.50 = 15.00
How dare Mr. Lekander question 1 billion bots a year on Mars.....
China registration number in for last week. 11,700.
And we know that money will go to the Mars Mission and further innovation, not mega-mansions and super yachts.
Fisker filing for bankruptcy protection it seems. YMMV
Very bullish: Powerwall 3 is now available in Germany and UK, with 0% VAT.
Tesla Energy is moving.
Tesla Energy is moving.
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I don't really think discussing Tesla Economists tweets is a valuable use of our time... A week ago he said he was bearish; now he's saying he's bullish? Good for him, I hope he re-gains a bit of the fortune he lost. But this will be my whole effort about thisHilarious nonsense. Can someone please explain what he’s talking about, especially this part?
I hope Tesla sends a cease & desist letter asking him to stop using the Tesla brand name and tarnishing it. Tesla really needs to start cracking on some of these “influencer” leeches.
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It’s amazing the turn around on this site! Two weeks ago gloom and doom. Now pie in the sky. I agree that Tesla has a hand in some amazing new technology, but so do others. Who comes out on top is not a given. The shorter is not incorrect when talking about where the car portfolio is at the moment. Tesla does seem to be making changes at the moment, and we’ll just have to see how well they respond to this challenge. I’m not sure there is a “correct” valuation for the stock at this time. The price now is simply what people will pay for it. Almost always is.
I did not mean to imply that adding more kWh was even the primary advance. There were and are almost countless small improvements that add to efficiency, it's not just kWh. We are on that.
Always is. Tesla doesn't issue dividends and hasn't done a buyback. The shares are just collectibles at the moment.
Meh. 129B of that 149B is Ford Motor Credit.
Since several people have ridiculed my prognostication that large truck efficiency may surpass the present quickly...all have ignored the possibility of discontinuous change.
I still remember joining SRI international in 1980 after a long time with zero exposure to US technical advance. They had just told HP in 1977 that there was no future in hand held calculation because slide rules were faster and more flexible. In 1971 I was in graduate graduate school at Columbia where I had the good fortune of buying a deeply discounted Bowmore Brain. In mid-1973 my then-employer had me using their powerful IBM 360-195, obsolescent despite being only three years old. Then there was the HP 65... The point of this is simply that the human mind generally fails to understand discontinuities.
To those who imagine there will not be huge advances in energy storage beyond incremental improvement of li-ion I only say that incrementalism never is sustained for long. The future of nano-technology, materials development including energy transmission too and solar efficiency are now receiving massive investments including several flavors of AI. ['flavors' courtesy of Murray Gelll-Mann.]
For everyone: we are on the cusp of gigantic change in nearly all of our technological suppositions. That is not hyperbole. Elon Musk knows that. Communicating with typical shareholders and even experienced electrical engineers suffers from a blindness to discontinuous change.
We are about to have discontinuities in energy capture, energy storage and energy use. Why am I so sure? Simply because the present approach to generative AI is destabilizing grids and swallowing far too much energy , mostly because of wasted heat.
That problem will be solved because it is a crisis swallowing vast amounts of nano-level engineering, huge efforts to improve every element of the status quo.
We almost always focus on the Luddites devoted to traditional fossil use, movement and extraction. within the lifetime of my 100 year old mother-in-law her ancestral farm has moved from hand-pumped water, horse and buggy...and so it goes...
Well well, appears another year of mucking through the barn floor stinking brown FUD from the anti-Tesla crowd has passed, and Fortune has seen upon itself the task of once again putting together the list of largest companies in the US by revenue. Several other measures too.Ah yes, the Fortune 500 list came in yesterdays issue. Always make for a nice evening swilling a Kosta Browne Pinot and some serious giddiness. I save all these physical issues of the magazine for fun.
See my prior post of "Particular Merit"
Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit
I've had a chance to sift through the ARK model and wanted to share some of my reactions. Many of these things have been called out on Twitter, some of these comments here as well, so may not be groundbreaking new information for many here. That said, hoping that synthesizing these in to a...teslamotorsclub.com
Shown below:
View attachment 945597
The #100 rank in 2021 turned into #62 last year (2022), pretty close to my estimate of #63. And the part about hitting the top 50 strangely enough was spot on, as Tesla hit #50. Revenue was $81.462 billion. Yahoo is showing estimated revenue for 2023 of $99 billion. That would get Tesla to position #39, right between Pfizer and Lowe's.
2020: #124
2021: #100
2022: #62
2023: #50
2024: #39 ?
Page 42 has an entire 8 page story about Tesla, with the headline being: Have we reached peak Tesla? With the byline under it saying: Tesla reached the top 50 of the Fortune 500 faster than any other company on this year's list. But with the automaker's EV market share in steady decline, CEO Elon Musk faces pressure to find his next moonshot.
Hopefully next year's issue will include an answer to the posed question. Given the last couple weeks price movement, the answer is looking more clear.
And then page #F27 shows the best investments of the last 1, 5 and 10 years. Tesla maintains the #1 rank for 10 years with an annual return of 49.2%. Nvidia is a close second at 48.3%. The best part of this particular page is that the top of the page has this in very large font: 49.2% Tesla's annualized rate of return to shareholders 2012-2022.
GM and Ford are both right around position #20, and both have revenue about 2x what Tesla has. Ford loss was $1.981 billion, while GM profit was $9.934 billion. Tesla's profit was $12.556 billion on half the other automakers revenue. And the $12.5 billion was good enough to place it at #24 on the profit list, where Apple sits at #1 with $99 billion this year. So basically Tesla just needs to 8x their annual profit to knock Apple off the podium. Might have to wait acouplefew years for that celebration. The Kosta Browne will age nicely by then.
RT
The Yahoo estimate of where Tesla would end up revenue wise was nearly spot on. Yahoo estimated $99 billion, and revenue came in at $96.773, which was good enough to pop in at position #40 versus last years #50. And repeating the last 5 years with Yahoo's 2025 estimate here:
2020: #124
2021: #100
2022: #62
2023: #50
2024: #40
2025: #37 (Based on $108 billion)
Always like to compare Tesla to the other auto companies, just for fun. Ford and GM both moved up two positions, to #17 and #19 respectively. With revenue of $176b (F) and $171b (GM). These guys are no longer 2x Tesla in revenue, more like ~80% larger. Profit wise, we have:
Tesla: $15.0b overall rank #20
GM : $10.1 rank #34
F: $4.3b rank #96
Despite rolling out substantially more wheels, they aren't generating nearly as much profit as Tesla. Tesla gets a top of page writeup once again on the second page with this: Elon Musk's electric vehicles accelerated their transition from luxury cars to mass-market rides over the past year, as Tesla cut prices in response to softening consumer demand and competition from low-priced Chinese EVs. Profit margins flattened in 2023, but revenue rose 19% YOY to $96.8b.
Tesla's total return to investors in 2023 was 101.7%. Yeah, the stock doubled, so $123.18 to $248.48. Not bad for the 16th best return of all 500 stocks on the list. The anti-Tesla crowd no doubt had all their investments equally distributed in the top 15 returning stocks above Tesla, so they are clearly laughing at us bumpkins.
The 10 year growth in revenue has Tesla in the #1 spot with 47.3% annual growth, followed by Meta (33%) and Nvidia (31%). And the shorter list of the 20 most profitable companies sees Tesla make it's first appearance at #20 with the $14.997b haul. Apple leads with $96.995.
Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy through increasingly affordable electric vehicles in addition to renewable energy generation and storage.
Carry on the mission...
RT
BC announced the MSRP ceiling for vehicles qualifying for 4000 dollar rebate dropped from 55000 to 50000. 4 hours later tesla lowered the price of the model 3 to 49990 Canadian dollars. It is now the only tesla eligible for the BC EV rebate.
There has been little real news or data to really have much comment. Most of the recent comments here I see are pretty science fiction to me, but until the numbers for Q2 come out, nothing has been that earth shattering, stock moving.
The vote, which I mentioned would probably pass and all the future hype is what people feel positive/up on. Possible Tesla FSD testing in China was viewed as a positive yesterday. Trust me, there can be plenty more gloom/doom if actual negative news/data is out (this is why the stock has been down recently vs. purely FUDsters).
This is still my opinion, but from what I've seen like Amazon, Meta, early/founders (even though Elon didn't start Tesla) like Bezos, Zuck never get these billion comp plans (Bezos and Zuck never even got more shares from something I saw) so it's surprising shareholders are willing to give Elon such a massive chunk to do what any large owner of a company should be doing.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
This ends up being such a dumb argument on both sides.
Technically Elon wasn't there when they incorporated.
But when he joined, mere months later, the company was....like 3 guys with no actual money or product, just a vague notion of making EVs and no real path to doing so.
FWIW Zuck has tremendously more voting power at Meta than Elon does at Tesla--over 60% of it vs Elons low-teens to high-teens-after-tax-sales if the 2018 comp package actually gets reinstated-- so might wanna consider that in your "math" there.
This again? When Musk came along to join Tesla instead of starting his own company with J.B. Straubel, the Tesla brain trust was looking into sourcing battery packs from a barbeque manufacturer in...Vietnam. The existing plan to convert Lotus Elise cars to electric was an endless self-defeating loop. The final straw was when it was discovered that the existing president was hiding and misrepresenting financial information.
Essentially, Musk took mud pie and turned it into peach pie.
Now tell me how it was actually Fisker who created the Model S.
That makes 2 agile responses to market conditions recently. Getting the Model 3 back under the US tax credits (still not sure how they did that, look forward to hearing about it), and what you report here - almost instantaneous drop in the Canadian price to keep the BC government rebate.
Sounds like Tesla is still paying attention to the boring stodgy car market, despite Elon's focus being 90% on autonomy (judging from the Shareholder meeting). Bullish to me anyway.
All true, but strictly speaking, Elon was not a part of Telsa when it was started/incorporated.
He was a very early major investor, and absolutely did all the things you mentioned. As part of the legal process involved in addressing the mis-management and dismissal of the initial CEO, they legally agreed to whom would be referred to as "Founders".
So Elon is indeed considered a Founder. He also joined shortly after the company was started.
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