Tesla - why there is no real competition and why there won't be soon

[Robert.Boston]

I also wouldn't count VW Group out over the next five years. While they may be a latecomer today some of their main brands, namely Audi and VW, have started a lot of R&D in EVs and PHEVs (Porsche will also follow with more PHEVs).

I love driving an Audi; for me personally, I've never had a car that fit my brain and body quite so well. That said, I think the VW Group is in a serious case of EV denial. BMW has the i3/i8; Daimler, the (Tesla-powered) B-series, but Audi only has a vague promise of a Q EV, while canceling the eTron line. VW/Audi/Porsche is perhaps the clearest example of the "gear head" mentality that will respond to the rewrite of automotive history too little, too late.

 

[30seconds]

I'll add Hyundai. This is a massive and well run industrial conglomerate. They have a whole division that builds very large factories for biotech and semiconductor industries. And of course pretty good cars under $40k.

plus when they commit to a space they invest big and don't expect results for the better part of a decade.

Now ow that Tesla is laying out the game plan I would not be surprised to see them jump in over the next two years.

 

[SebastianR]

I'll add Hyundai. This is a massive and well run industrial conglomerate. They have a whole division that builds very large factories for biotech and semiconductor industries. And of course pretty good cars under $40k.

plus when they commit to a space they invest big and don't expect results for the better part of a decade.

Now ow that Tesla is laying out the game plan I would not be surprised to see them jump in over the next two years.

I think that's a very good point. Was uncertain if I should include them when I mentioned LG and Samsung but thinking about it, Hyundai is probably a very credible contender if they decide to go for it.

Anyways, I think the point is really that for decades traditional car makers outsourced everything that's not 'core value' (ICE) just to wake up now and realize that their 'core value' is about to be majorly disrupted. From their perspective Tesla should really only be seen as a first of many...

 

[tftf]

I'll add Hyundai. This is a massive and well run industrial conglomerate. They have a whole division that builds very large factories for biotech and semiconductor industries. And of course pretty good cars under $40k.

Hyundai and Kia split their efforts along the brand lines according to sources. Hyundai does hydrogen and Kia does EVs (the first exported one being the Soul EV coming later this year). That may change in the future, but at the moment each brand focuses on one alternative propulsion system.

 

[SΞXY P100D]

Great OP!

Would like to resurrect this thread since there's EV competition on the horizon from Mercedes, Faraday Future and quite possibly Apple. Can't believe it's been almost 3 years since this thread opened and still there aren't any pure EV and supercharging network alternatives to Tesla.

 

[iwannam3]

Great OP!

Would like to resurrect this thread since there's EV competition on the horizon from Mercedes, Faraday Future and quite possibly Apple. Can't believe it's been almost 3 years since this thread opened and still there aren't any pure EV and supercharging network alternatives to Tesla.

In Australia ever "gas" station has to have diesel and propane. That eliminates "range anxiety" in propane vehicles. If the gov mandated every "gas" station had to have 2 150 kw charging stations it would level the playing field for non-Tesla players. They would not be free and the stations would generate revenue to replace that lost by reduced gas sales. And they would sell more junk food as you waited.

 

[wycolo]

Conventional businesses still hoping Government will pack a free lunch for them in the form of subsidized Fast DC Charging network. We could be waiting a long time.
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[ecarfan]

there's EV competition on the horizon from Mercedes, Faraday Future and quite possibly Apple.

What is your definition of "on the horizon"? Based on what I see, the real competition is at least 3 years away.

 

[Alketi]

What is your definition of "on the horizon"? Based on what I see, the real competition is at least 3 years away.

I was going to say the same thing. Most of those companies are targeting 2018-2021 for their 200 mile EV efforts, and in limited quantity (one or two models).

It seems like the Bolt will be the only real player/competitor for the immediate future.

It's striking that this 2014 post still applies today, and for the next few years.

 

[TMSE]

In Australia ever "gas" station has to have diesel and propane. That eliminates "range anxiety" in propane vehicles. If the gov mandated every "gas" station had to have 2 150 kw charging stations it would level the playing field for non-Tesla players. They would not be free and the stations would generate revenue to replace that lost by reduced gas sales. And they would sell more junk food as you waited.

GM confirms 60 kWh battery pack for the Bolt EV and DC fast-charging will be optional [full specs]

Fast charging option costs extra in Chevy Bolt. Guess how fast is that fast charging? About 50kw! It doesn't matter if you have 150kw charger when your car is limited to much lower charge rate.

Compare that to Tesla's 145kw rate! It will be many more years before other manufacturers figure it out!
Tesla boosts Supercharger electric-car charging rate to 145 kw

 

[SΞXY P100D]

What is your definition of "on the horizon"? Based on what I see, the real competition is at least 3 years away.

Optimistically 1-3 years - about the same time as the Model 3 production release. Other than Tesla progress has been rather slow. That's quite sad, actually.

 

[Chopr147]

Exactly. No matter how good an EV Mercedes and other brands make, how will they travel? Drive for 3 hours and then what? Plug in for 8 hours? They are IMHO 5 years at least behind Tesla in the charging aspect. I'm sure Mercedes can make a great EV if they want to but it is going to take more than just the car

 

[SΞXY P100D]

Exactly. No matter how good an EV Mercedes and other brands make, how will they travel? Drive for 3 hours and then what? Plug in for 8 hours? They are IMHO 5 years at least behind Tesla in the charging aspect. I'm sure Mercedes can make a great EV if they want to but it is going to take more than just the car

Yes, they can adopt the Tesla supercharging network although I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if they were to do just that.

 

[nexsuperne101]

Being able to drive for 3 hours in the UK may well be all that is needed. For me, 140 miles a day is enough for all my work related driving.

The Nissan Leaf that I currently have needs one rapid charge per day, so the 200 mile offering would be fine with me. That's why I will be chucking the Leaf in and getting the 60D Model S, as it is perfect for my needs, if the most expensive thing (apart from my house) that I have ever bought. I won't need a supercharger, as the range, even in the depths of winter, will still be fine.

 

[EV-lutioin]

Evidence:
Dealers Seem Confused About How To Sell The 2014 BMW i3
Heret Want The Cadillac ELR

This totally makes sense, perhaps the only way to get mainstream automakers to sell EVs will be to create completely new companies (like GM did with Saturn, albeit without success). Otherwise they will continue to run up against reluctant ICE dealerships. Saturn was a fairly successful model for a while, but GM let it languish over time.

 

[schonelucht]

Exactly. No matter how good an EV Mercedes and other brands make, how will they travel? Drive for 3 hours and then what? Plug in for 8 hours? They are IMHO 5 years at least behind Tesla in the charging aspect. I'm sure Mercedes can make a great EV if they want to but it is going to take more than just the car

Fast charging startups are popping up all over the place in Europe. Furtest along is Fastned with 50 locations with 50kW DC charging which they will upgrade to 150kW next year. The Swiss fast charge startup Go Fast recently powered up their first location with 150kW charging too with plans to expand rapidly. Allego is on track for 350 fast charging sites all over Europe (mainly Germany) by the end of this year. They too are part of CharIn, so I'd expect them to have 150kW capabilities by the end of 2017 as well.

At least in Europe Tesla is still well in the lead but alternative fast charging solutions are coming online rapidly enough that I'd estimate the lead to be no more than 2 years. Obviously in those 2 years Tesla will expand too, but it is not impossible that by the end of 2018 there are just as much non-Tesla 100+kW fast chargers than there are superchargers.

In my opinion, Tesla's lead in electric cars that actually can take advantage of true fast charging is larger than it's lead in fast charging infrastructure. At least for Europe.

 

[bonaire]

Fast charging startups are popping up all over the place in Europe. Furtest along is Fastned with 50 locations with 50kW DC charging which they will upgrade to 150kW next year. The Swiss fast charge startup Go Fast recently powered up their first location with 150kW charging too with plans to expand rapidly. Allego is on track for 350 fast charging sites all over Europe (mainly Germany) by the end of this year. They too are part of CharIn, so I'd expect them to have 150kW capabilities by the end of 2017 as well.

At least in Europe Tesla is still well in the lead but alternative fast charging solutions are coming online rapidly enough that I'd estimate the lead to be no more than 2 years. Obviously in those 2 years Tesla will expand too, but it is not impossible that by the end of 2018 there are just as much non-Tesla 100+kW fast chargers than there are superchargers.

In my opinion, Tesla's lead in electric cars that actually can take advantage of true fast charging is larger than it's lead in fast charging infrastructure. At least for Europe.

What is pricing on the per-kWh level of the 50KW DCFC? And is it CHAdeMO? It's too bad the USA is not nearly as progressive as Europe regarding this. But I have to wonder what the per-kWh for those DCFC - is it exorbitant (a quarter Euro or more per kWh) or is it reasonable. Here, we have seen public charging as much as .49/kWh USD - meaning - three to five times residential kWh pricing and making gasoline FAR CHEAPER for people to choose. Last week, I saw $1.75 regular gas in my travels in the southern USA. And in that area, I have only seen one plug-in during five weeks of visits (a Volt). Also saw a Tesla in New Orleans - maybe it was NOLA_Mike.

I would like to see DCFC be spread out to the point of 7000-8500 spots across the USA. It is close to 3000 now. This map may look good for CHAdeMO - but not nearly good enough. Thousands more are needed for down-market EVs to "take off" and then growth of those stations further once that occurs. This cannot be a bunch of .49/kWh network folks looking to "cash in" on overpriced "new fuel". The press will not write well about EVs if this is the case and that keeps buyers away.

USmap — CHAdeMO Association

And yes, I know that most EV owners charge at home primarily. But most EV "prospects" don't think that way until educated.

 

[ecarfan]

What is pricing on the per-kWh level of the 50KW DCFC? ...is it exorbitant (a quarter Euro or more per kWh) or is it reasonable

Keep in mind that gasoline in Europe four times or more the cost of what it is in the US, so EV charging stations can cost what to you might be "exorbitant" but still result in an EV being significantly less costly to operate in Europe than an ICE.

 

[mmccord]

I don't mind paying $.49/kwh for a fast charge when necessary. This is about $35 for a 0-90% charge. (70kwh).
If it was my daily charging, I'd be concerned about the cost, but I don't need charging on the road that often.

More important than the expense, is the time required. 50kw isn't exactly fast. 120-150kw is better.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Besides Teslas, which mostly don't need them, who is going to use these fast chargers?