The ambitious target to model 3 500k

[tsla007]

All-

The only way I can see T getting to this number in 2018 is by selling the m3 in packages only.
It's just not possible to pump out these cars that fast if it is all customized. Having been in the factory on a tour
it seems they are moving forward via package lines. What each line is-I'm not sure.
I know there are some here who want to completely customize their car.
I do think you'll be able to customize colors-int/ext, tow hitch, wheels.

You won't be able to get the pano roof in the 35k model nor will you be able to add it.
You'll need to get the d model for that to be an option. Just an example.

I think certain options will be forced upon you. It will more than likely be about price ranges. (just examples and I know prices aren't right)

35k-base model
38k-base model d
45k-model d with some options bigger battery
50k-model d with all options
60k-model L completely loaded largest battery

I might be wrong and I could see why-just skip things in the manu line, but that makes a waste of space and time moving the car through it. Just my opinion. The 3 will need to be produced 15x faster than S.

 

[Jayc]

Totally agree.

I'd take the "45k-model d with some options bigger battery" option - should slot in just below £40k here and is just what I want

 

[Booga]

Totally agree.

I'd take the "45k-model d with some options bigger battery" option - should slot in just below £40k here and is just what I want

Same here. With a bigger battery and dual motors, and ideally some amount of AP (at least for highway driving), I'm sold at that price point.

The $45k price will still come to $50k for me with the costs of sales tax and delivery/documentation fees, but I'm OK with it considering that my energy expenses and tax credits will offset it by a decent amount. I do consider the car being $5-8k cheaper, because of electric power versus gasoline consumption, and the tax credit of $7,500 in the U.S. that will hopefully not run out, mean that I should treat the $50k car more like a $35k car.

 

[zenmaster]

Many manufacturers offer bundled-optioned packages which can't be broken up or mixed with other options as well as individual options that don't negatively affect the production cost. In the end they still need to be competitive which I'd imagine would be their primary concern. Since they're targeting the entry-level luxury car market, they'd need comparable features. Some options that come to mind would be battery, awd, paint, roof type, stereo system type, wheels, headlight washers, parking assist cameras, trim, seating (memory, sport, fabric, leather, ventilated, heated), HUD, live assistance, SC pay up front or per use, sat radio, apps, Android Auto / Carplay, wifi, AP: safety only / driverless, center display delete, keyless entry, interior lighting, headlights (smart, xenon, halogen, LED, laser), steering wheel (sport, heated), hands-free trunk.
Packages: cold weather, Ludicrous, sport, luxury, technology.

 

[Sharkbait]

Hmmm, completely loaded for 60K? I'll buy today, but I think you're short by about 10-15K. You imply availability of three battery sizes. I think there will only be two.

 

[Booga]

Hmmm, completely loaded for 60K? I'll buy today, but I think you're short by about 10-15K. You imply availability of three battery sizes. I think there will only be two.

They can do more software options, which don't affect manufacturing nearly as much, like they have done with the Model S on occasion. Today, you can get the 60, 75, or 90 kwh battery sizes, but the first two are really the same with minimal changes that can be done at any time. So two physical options, but three with software.

 

[Topher]

Customizing a car on a nearly fully automated production line should be really easy. I have no doubt that Tesla will keep their current option model.

Thank you kindly.

 

[SageBrush]

Customizing a car on a nearly fully automated production line should be really easy.

My thought too, although I imagine some options will be easier than others.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

All-

The only way I can see T getting to this number in 2018 is by selling the m3 in packages only.
It's just not possible to pump out these cars that fast if it is all customized. Having been in the factory on a tour
it seems they are moving forward via package lines. What each line is-I'm not sure.
I know there are some here who want to completely customize their car.
I do think you'll be able to customize colors-int/ext, tow hitch, wheels.

You won't be able to get the pano roof in the 35k model nor will you be able to add it.
You'll need to get the d model for that to be an option. Just an example.

I think certain options will be forced upon you. It will more than likely be about price ranges. (just examples and I know prices aren't right)

35k-base model
38k-base model d
45k-model d with some options bigger battery
50k-model d with all options
60k-model L completely loaded largest battery

I might be wrong and I could see why-just skip things in the manu line, but that makes a waste of space and time moving the car through it. Just my opinion. The 3 will need to be produced 15x faster than S.

As much as I love Tesla being "not just another car company", I am OK with this, and I know it's coming. They've hired the guy from Audi who was in charge of A5 and Q5 production lines. Packaged/bundled options are coming....

However, if they follow Audi's model, there may be a few "dealer-installed options" that wouldn't mess with the production line output.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Customizing a car on a nearly fully automated production line should be really easy. I have no doubt that Tesla will keep their current option model.

Thank you kindly.

Not necessarily.

You still have to deal with physics. To expand on what someone else pointed out, if your car is moving down the line and it's time to add leather seats...but this car doesn't have leather seats, it's vegan interior....that's "wasted space" on the line.

wasted space=wasted time.

and time=money.

 

[Booga]

Not necessarily.

You still have to deal with physics. To expand on what someone else pointed out, if your car is moving down the line and it's time to add leather seats...but this car doesn't have leather seats, it's vegan interior....that's "wasted space" on the line.

wasted space=wasted time.

and time=money.

Maybe some options will be "special runs" that get done in batches? So rather than having cars of varying colors and options produced at once, they'll do runs that cater to 1 specific set of hardware options, and then maybe segment it by color? By doing this, you have fewer things to manage and stock in order for production to occur - if the vegan seats didn't come in, it doesn't matter because you'll do their production run on a different day.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Maybe some options will be "special runs" that get done in batches? So rather than having cars of varying colors and options produced at once, they'll do runs that cater to 1 specific set of hardware options, and then maybe segment it by color? By doing this, you have fewer things to manage and stock in order for production to occur - if the vegan seats didn't come in, it doesn't matter because you'll do their production run on a different day.

A lot of factories run flat-out for a certain period of time, with a "retool" period.


So maybe a 12-13 day run of PxxD-L

1-2 days retooling time....

then a 12-13 day run of PxxD

retool

12-13 days of Pxx

etc.


If they WERE to go with one battery pack, with the option to unlock range via software, it would limit the line's downtime for retooling.

 

[SageBrush]

EM talked recently about inefficiencies in manufacturing, perhaps this problem of options is one of them. Since Tesla has been very innovative in the past, I give them more than a benefit of the doubt here too, and will not jump to conclusions just because other companies are unable to solve a problem.

 

[Booga]

EM talked recently about inefficiencies in manufacturing. Perhaps this problem of options is one of them. Tesla has been very innovative in the past. I give them more than a benefit of the doubt here too, and will not jump to conclusions just because other companies are unable to solve a problem.

They could cut down on colors. I say pink-only for the body.

"You can have the Model 3 in any color you like, so long as it is pink." - Elon Musk

 

[WileyTheMan]

I hope they indicate how options affect delivery when they provide the design studio for us.

 

[Sharkbait]

So two physical options, but three with software.

True, but given maybe the 55 kWh battery pack on the M3 or option to perhaps a 90 kWh pack, I suspect most would go for the 90 rather than something in-between. On the S60, the uplift to 75 a kWh pack is what - $8,500-$9,000, which pushes up against the $60K (for fully loaded) price real fast. But yes; 'click enter' and voila. You now have 75 kWh!'

I've received a couple "dislikes" of my thoughts that a "nicely optioned" M3 could be above $70K but I think that's where it will end up. I think it will also be about $20K less than a S60 bumped up to 75 kWh, with AP and Premium interior. Who knows? Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised!

 

[ModelNforNerd]

True, but given maybe the 55 kWh battery pack on the M3 or option to perhaps a 90 kWh pack, I suspect most would go for the 90 rather than something in-between. On the S60, the uplift to 75 a kWh pack is what - $8,500-$9,000, which pushes up against the $60K (for fully loaded) price real fast. But yes; 'click enter' and voila. You now have 75 kWh!'

I've received a couple "dislikes" of my thoughts that a "nicely optioned" M3 could be above $70K but I think that's where it will end up. I think it will also be about $20K less than a S60 bumped up to 75 kWh, with AP and Premium interior. Who knows? Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised!

well....with today's announcement of the "new" (really reimagined...the nameplate already existed) 60...


An S60 bumped to 75kWh, AP and Premium interior, no other options...comes to exactly $80K.

So your statements now seem to contradict each other.

"20K less" for the "nicely optioned M3" would make it ~$10K less than your other guess.

None of us know....until Elon tweets it.

 

[plankeye]

Not necessarily.

You still have to deal with physics. To expand on what someone else pointed out, if your car is moving down the line and it's time to add leather seats...but this car doesn't have leather seats, it's vegan interior....that's "wasted space" on the line.

wasted space=wasted time.

and time=money.

Don't they just need to have the seats that are lined up and ready to install sync'd with the cars coming down the line? The machine is the same, it's just installing a different color/fabric seat, right?

The only thing that I can think of that would "waste" space on the line is AWD. The RWD cars would move through that step of the line with nothing being done, which would be wasteful, yes.

Even the battery pack is a matter of getting the right pack into the car waiting at that step in the line. All cars will get a pack, just a matter of which one.

 

[Booga]

Don't they just need to have the seats that are lined up and ready to install sync'd with the cars coming down the line? The machine is the same, it's just installing a different color/fabric seat, right?

The only thing that I can think of that would "waste" space on the line is AWD. The RWD cars would move through that step of the line with nothing being done, which would be wasteful, yes.

Even the battery pack is a matter of getting the right pack into the car waiting at that step in the line. All cars will get a pack, just a matter of which one.

Sure, but is it worth it to have to supply that installation machine with a different part from multiple varieties? It might be easier to minimize that change. It also affects the sourcing/logistics of the supply chain.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Sure, but is it worth it to have to supply that installation machine with a different part from multiple varieties? It might be easier to minimize that change. It also affects the sourcing/logistics of the supply chain.

Beat me to it.

Again, it also comes down to space....and time.


How long would it take the robot arm to pick up tan leather seats and place them, then next car, black vegan, then next car grey leather.


If they can limit the permutations, it will limit the retooling time.

One part of the building will take all the bodies and spray whatever color. that part is easy. then the cars come down the line...

battery/drivetrain skateboard attached to body
brakes/steering, etc
electronics, etc
interior
glass
body panels
wheels/tires
software flash


QA


at each of those "stops" you might have different permutations/options. I'm thinking we'll get 2 physical battery packs to choose from...and each of those will have software locks for range and/or performance.

glass will be full roof or all-glass


etc etc etc. the less swapping around they can do, the better.


Maybe they'll do it by region. So on day 57 of production, all PxxD's with grey leather, glass roof and 20" wheels headed to the Northeast go down the line.....

I'm sure they're elbows-deep in figuring this stuff all out right now.