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The coming Tesla cash cow and the short burn of the century

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#221
ShortSeller said:
Elon has said the same thing 3 or 4 times in the past, and missed badly. It pays to do your own work and not rely on Elon.
Click to expand...
I can't recall Musk saying anything like what he's said now in the recent past. But Tesla has had two profitable quarters thus far, so it wouldn't surprise me if he has at some point said something about being profitable in the near future.

What he hasn't said however is that Tesla will have two quarters in a row with profit. Now he's saying it. And my impression from the conference call is that profitability is an actual priority, for the first time. The priority for the last six years has been growth, at any cost, and if they happen to turn a profit, that's great.
 
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#222
Yggdrasill said:
The priority for the last six years has been growth, at any cost, and if they happen to turn a profit, that's great.
Click to expand...

Exactly. And that strategy has worked pretty well so far for maximizing shareholder value. Amazing that shorts don't seem able to wrap their heads around this point.

So many shorts dont get:

1) trading short term profitability for long term growth

2) achieving awesome results by making outrageous demands of your team (and therefore sometimes missing the outrageous demand timelines, but usually only because it takes a little longer than stated -- it is basic management 101 that if you what something done in a year (or a month) you better set a deadline for 6 months (or two weeks).
 
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#224
MattEnth said:
And for what upside? Tesla is already priced as one of the most valuable automakers in the world. They're losing the autonomous vehicles race. What's going to drive the stock up?
Click to expand...
Well, they are priced as the most valuable automaker, yes but that does not say much about their potential. They have zero competitors in the S and X segment. There is no other EV there and this will stay this way until Porsche sells its Mission E. The Model 3 is heads and shoulders not only over all EV competitors but its killing all competitors in its market segment very fast. They sell all their cars as fast as they can produce them, again, there is no competitor that can claim that. And this will stay this way for likely several years to come!

Now shall we talk about the energy business? Because that is going to grow extremely fast as soon as GF has cell and Pack production solved. Which, as we hear is definitively not far off.

I would be very surprised if the SP would not be over 400 by end of Q4
 
#225
ShortSeller said:
Elon has said the same thing 3 or 4 times in the past, and missed badly. It pays to do your own work and not rely on Elon.
Click to expand...
Has he though?

You may need to seperate Elon's offhand musings and estimates and Tesla's official guidance.

I did a quick scan of all the Investor Letters and read the bullets at the top, and the outlook section. Based on that cursory look, the only official guidance I saw was the Q4_2015 letter which said:

  • "Planning for full year 2016 non-GAAP profitability, GAAP profit in Q4 2016

We expect to generate positive net cash flow and achieve non-GAAP profitability for the full-year 2016"

Tesla was then slightly profitable in I think Q3_2016, according to this history tracker.

Of course, the Model 3 plans also got accelerated by 2 years, etc...


That seems significantly different than the much more assertive and specific guidance in the Q1_2018 letter:

  • " Expecting positive GAAP net income and positive cash flow in Q3 and Q4 2018
Quarterly non-GAAP operating expenses should grow sequentially at approximately the same rate as in the past four quarters, with our gross profit expected to grow much faster than our operating expenses. Thus, provided that we hit the 5,000 unit milestone in our projected timeframe and execute to the rest of our plan, we will at least be profitable in Q3 and Q4 excluding non-cash stock based compensation and we expect to achieve full GAAP profitability in each of those quarters as well. Also, considering our capex targets, we expect to generate positive cash in Q3 and Q4, including the inflow of cash that we receive in the normal course of our business from financing activities on leased vehicle and solar products. "


Again, it appears that you are extrapolating from pre-Model 3 high volume production to the post 5K-per-week era, and assuming the financial performance is going to be the same.
 
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#226
ShortSeller said:
Elon has said the same thing 3 or 4 times in the past, and missed badly. It pays to do your own work and not rely on Elon.
Click to expand...

No he hasn’t, not concerning profitability or cash flow positive. He was bang on last time and it took my share value from the 30s into the 180s. Those shares are now sitting in the 280s.

I’d say my homework and relying on Elon has paid quite nicely, bro. And I’m quite certain I’m sitting on a much larger investment than you.

But you just keep on keeping on and being confident you know how this all ends.

Edit: scarsare is correct about 2016 and we did in fact have the ‘pie’ quarter, but Tesla changed course so profitability was scrapped in exchange for growth. It was the right decision.
 
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#227
K_Dizzle said:
View attachment 301386

Why don’t you ask yourself why every single institution expect for 8 have significantly increased their TSLA position lately? Do you think dumb or ill informed ?
Click to expand...
FWIW, I suspect Baillie Gifford is seeing fund withdrawals and isn't permitted to increase its single stock concentration level. Their small position reduction doesn't look like an active selloff decision to me.
 
#228
schonelucht said:
For the record. I outright own TSLA shares.

Personally my position here is that I have not heard a good explanation for a $120M shortfall on service&maintenance. The one sentence ‘explanation’ from Tesla is begging the question more than anything else. I packed out what possible charges could and could not be part of this loss and none seem to point to such a large gap. Underutilized or not. Yes, that makes me distrust full of this aspect of the company.
Click to expand...
Upon rereading it, I think settlements to former Grohmann customers may be bigger than we realized.... Material.
 
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#229
bdy0627 said:
I would caution against thinking that since it hasn't happened yet, the risk for one is gone. The last time Elon saw one coming and called it out, it was about 6 months before the stock rocketed. Obviously, there hasn't been a major catalyst to trigger much fear in shorts or longs lately. People are just making money swing trading the stock. This is typical TSLA volatility, often dipping about 10% then climbing a similar amount. That will continue until a major catalyst sends the stock sharply out of that range. We know the arguments on either side for catalysts. We know one is coming, and we have some idea about when.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the expected squeeze timing is anywhere from late August to next February, depending on which report breaks the short thesis (Q3 deliveries to Q4 financials) and how much it's anticipated by leaks.
 
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#230
From the last conference call, Musk said something along the lines of Tesla getting criticized for not being profitable and that real companies make money. My theory is that Musk is going to lead Tesla to a series of profitable quarters to the point that they get listed on the S&P 500 or another prestigious index. OP analysis shows how profitable they can be under ideal conditions. It seems that they can weather several small storms over the next year and still manage a profit. The risk is a big storm delaying profitability, hence the stock volatility, IMO.

Since Musk has made a specific point of targeting profitability, he will manage to it. I suspect large future investments (model y, semi, roadster 2.0) will all be delayed to curb expenses in favor of turning profits for several quarters. Wise investors will hold.
 
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#234
The cash cow premise is that operating leverage will result once M3 production achieves planned volumes. The size of the cow depends on execution between 3Q18 through 2Q19. The biggest variable may be how quickly M3 GM% can improve.

My guess at the rest of 2018 follows; 2019 is more difficult to project, partly because I think Tesla will begin M3 leases in NA in 1Q19 and partly because the US FIT credit will be in phase-down mode after 4Q18. I've attached a spreadsheet link at the end of the table for those wanting to see the formulas (and change them and/or the assumptions)
QUARTER]
ASSUMPTIONS
S &X DELIVERIES
M3 DELVERIES
S & X % LEASED
S & X ASP
S & X GM %
M3 % LEASED
M3 ASP
M3 GM %
ZEV CREDIT SALES
GHG/CAFE CREDIT SALES
SOLAR MW
ENERGY STORAGE MWH
REVENUE
S & X SALES
M3 SALES
AUTO LEASING
ENERGY GEN/STOR
SERVICES & OTHER
REVENUE TOTAL
COST OF REVENUE
S & X SALES
M3 SALES
AUTO LEASING
ENERGY GEN/STOR
SERVICES & OTHER
COST OF REVENUE TOTAL
GROSS PROFIT
R&D
SG&A
INTEREST INCOME
INTEREST EXPENSE
OTHER (EXPENSE) INCOME
TAXES
NET (LOSS)/ INCOME
NCI LAYOFF
NET (LOSS)/INCOME SH
[TD2] 1Q18 A [/TD2][TD2] 2Q18 E [/TD2][TD2] 3Q18 E [/TD2][TD2] 4Q18 E [/TD2][TD2] TOTAL 2018 [/TD2] [TD2]21,815[/TD2][TD2]22,000[/TD2][TD2]27,500[/TD2][TD2]28,685[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2] [TD2]8,182[/TD2][TD2]37,500[/TD2][TD2]55,000[/TD2][TD2]72,500[/TD2][TD2]173,182[/TD2] [TD2]0.08[/TD2][TD2]0.09[/TD2][TD2]0.10[/TD2][TD2]0.10[/TD2][TD2]0.09[/TD2] [TD2]$102.70[/TD2][TD2]$100.00[/TD2][TD2]$105.00[/TD2][TD2]$105.00[/TD2][TD2]$103.180[/TD2] [TD2]0.215[/TD2][TD2]0.22[/TD2][TD2]0.24[/TD2][TD2]0.25[/TD2][TD2]23.31%[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]$55.04[/TD2][TD2]$55.00[/TD2][TD2]$60.00[/TD2][TD2]$60.00[/TD2][TD2]$57.51[/TD2] [TD2]-0.1034[/TD2][TD2]-0.12[/TD2][TD2]0.075[/TD2][TD2]0.125[/TD2][TD2]4.89%[/TD2] [TD2]$50,314[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]$125,000[/TD2][TD2]$150,000[/TD2][TD2]$325,314[/TD2] [TD2]$30,015[/TD2][TD2]$30,000[/TD2][TD2]$35,000[/TD2][TD2]$40,000[/TD2][TD2]$135,015[/TD2] [TD2]76[/TD2][TD2]85[/TD2][TD2]92.5[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]353.5[/TD2] [TD2]373[/TD2][TD2]275[/TD2][TD2]362.5[/TD2][TD2]390[/TD2][TD2]1,400.5[/TD2] [TD2]$2,141,497[/TD2][TD2]$2,054,000[/TD2][TD2]$2,758,750[/TD2][TD2]$2,900,733[/TD2][TD2]$9,854,980[/TD2] [TD2]$450,337[/TD2][TD2]$2,062,500[/TD2][TD2]$3,300,000[/TD2][TD2]$4,350,000[/TD2][TD2]$10,162,837[/TD2] [TD2]$173,436[/TD2][TD2]$170,000[/TD2][TD2]$177,500[/TD2][TD2]$185,00[/TD2][TD2]$705,936[/TD2] [TD2]$410,022[/TD2][TD2]$380,000[/TD2][TD2]$413,529[/TD2][TD2]$447,059[/TD2][TD2]$1,650,610[/TD2] [TD2] $263,412 [/TD2][TD2] $300,000 [/TD2][TD2] $341,670 [/TD2][TD2] $389,128 [/TD2][TD2] $1,294,210 [/TD2] [TD2] $3,438,705 [/TD2][TD2] $4,966,500 [/TD2][TD2] $6,991,449 [/TD2][TD2] $8,271,919 [/TD2][TD2] $23,668,574 [/TD2] [TD2]$1,618,017[/TD2][TD2]$1,578,720[/TD2][TD2]$1,975,050[/TD2][TD2]$2,033,049[/TD2][TD2]$7,204,837[/TD2] [TD2]$496,092[/TD2][TD2]$2,310,000[/TD2][TD2]$3,052,500[/TD2][TD2]$3,806,250[/TD2][TD2]$9,665,652[/TD2] [TD2]$104,496[/TD2][TD2]$102,430[/TD2][TD2]$111,468[/TD2][TD2]$120,506[/TD2][TD2]$438,900[/TD2] [TD2]$375,363[/TD2][TD2]$335,000[/TD2][TD2]$381,532[/TD2][TD2]$434,526[/TD2][TD2]$1,526,421[/TD2] [TD2] $380,969 [/TD2][TD2] $405,000 [/TD2][TD2] $570,127 [/TD2][TD2] $674,545 [/TD2][TD2] $2,030, 641[/TD2] [TD2] $2,975,747 [/TD2][TD2] $4,731,150 [/TD2][TD2] $6,090,677 [/TD2][TD2] $7,068,877 [/TD2][TD2] $20,866,451 [/TD2] [TD2] $462,957 [/TD2][TD2] $235,350 [/TD2][TD2] $900,773 [/TD2][TD2] $1,203,043 [/TD2][TD2] $2,893,154 [/TD2] [TD2]$367,096[/TD2][TD2]$379.944[/TD2][TD2]$393,242[/TD2][TD2]$407,006[/TD2][TD2]$1,547,289[/TD2] [TD2]$686,404[/TD2][TD2]$710,428[/TD2][TD2]$735,293[/TD2][TD2]$761,028[/TD2][TD2]$2,893,154[/TD2] [TD2]$5,214[/TD2][TD2]$5,300[/TD2][TD2]$5,300[/TD2][TD2]$5,300[/TD2][TD2]$21,114[/TD2] [TD2]-$149,546[/TD2][TD2]-$160,000[/TD2][TD2]-$171,185[/TD2][TD2]-$183,151[/TD2][TD2]-$663,882[/TD2] [TD2]-$37,716[/TD2][TD2]-$35,000[/TD2][TD2]-$32,480[/TD2][TD2]-$30,141[/TD2][TD2]-$135,336[/TD2] [TD2]$5,605[/TD2][TD2]$5,000[/TD2][TD2]$5,000[/TD2][TD2]$5,000[/TD2][TD2]$20,605[/TD2] [TD2] -$777,414 [/TD2][TD2] -$1,050,323 [/TD2][TD2] -$431,727 [/TD2][TD2] -$178,584 [/TD2][TD2] -$2,438,047 [/TD2] [TD2]-$75,076[/TD2][TD2]-$85,000[/TD2][TD2]-$96,236[/TD2][TD2]-$108,957[/TD2][TD2]-$365,269[/TD2] [TD2]-$702,338[/TD2][TD2]-$965,323[/TD2][TD2]-$335,491[/TD2][TD2]-$69,627[/TD2][TD2]-$2.072,778[/TD2]
TESLA 2018-2019
 
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#235
brian45011 said:
The cash cow premise is that operating leverage will result once M3 production achieves planned volumes. The size of the cow depends on execution between 3Q18 through 2Q19. The biggest variable may be how quickly M3 GM% can improve.

My guess at the rest of 2018 follows; 2019 is more difficult to project, partly because I think Tesla will begin M3 leases in NA in 1Q19 and partly because the US FIT credit will be in phase-down mode after 4Q18. I've attached a spreadsheet link at the end of the table for those wanting to see the formulas (and change them and/or the assumptions)
QUARTER]
ASSUMPTIONS
S &X DELIVERIES
M3 DELVERIES
S & X % LEASED
S & X ASP
S & X GM %
M3 % LEASED
M3 ASP
M3 GM %
ZEV CREDIT SALES
GHG/CAFE CREDIT SALES
SOLAR MW
ENERGY STORAGE MWH
REVENUE
S & X SALES
M3 SALES
AUTO LEASING
ENERGY GEN/STOR
SERVICES & OTHER
REVENUE TOTAL
COST OF REVENUE
S & X SALES
M3 SALES
AUTO LEASING
ENERGY GEN/STOR
SERVICES & OTHER
COST OF REVENUE TOTAL
GROSS PROFIT
R&D
SG&A
INTEREST INCOME
INTEREST EXPENSE
OTHER (EXPENSE) INCOME
TAXES
NET (LOSS)/ INCOME
NCI LAYOFF
NET (LOSS)/INCOME SH
[TD2] 1Q18 A [/TD2][TD2] 2Q18 E [/TD2][TD2] 3Q18 E [/TD2][TD2] 4Q18 E [/TD2][TD2] TOTAL 2018 [/TD2] [TD2]21,815[/TD2][TD2]22,000[/TD2][TD2]27,500[/TD2][TD2]28,685[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2] [TD2]8,182[/TD2][TD2]37,500[/TD2][TD2]55,000[/TD2][TD2]72,500[/TD2][TD2]173,182[/TD2] [TD2]0.08[/TD2][TD2]0.09[/TD2][TD2]0.10[/TD2][TD2]0.10[/TD2][TD2]0.09[/TD2] [TD2]$102.70[/TD2][TD2]$100.00[/TD2][TD2]$105.00[/TD2][TD2]$105.00[/TD2][TD2]$103.180[/TD2] [TD2]0.215[/TD2][TD2]0.22[/TD2][TD2]0.24[/TD2][TD2]0.25[/TD2][TD2]23.31%[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]$55.04[/TD2][TD2]$55.00[/TD2][TD2]$60.00[/TD2][TD2]$60.00[/TD2][TD2]$57.51[/TD2] [TD2]-0.1034[/TD2][TD2]-0.12[/TD2][TD2]0.075[/TD2][TD2]0.125[/TD2][TD2]4.89%[/TD2] [TD2]$50,314[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]$125,000[/TD2][TD2]$150,000[/TD2][TD2]$325,314[/TD2] [TD2]$30,015[/TD2][TD2]$30,000[/TD2][TD2]$35,000[/TD2][TD2]$40,000[/TD2][TD2]$135,015[/TD2] [TD2]76[/TD2][TD2]85[/TD2][TD2]92.5[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]353.5[/TD2] [TD2]373[/TD2][TD2]275[/TD2][TD2]362.5[/TD2][TD2]390[/TD2][TD2]1,400.5[/TD2] [TD2]$2,141,497[/TD2][TD2]$2,054,000[/TD2][TD2]$2,758,750[/TD2][TD2]$2,900,733[/TD2][TD2]$9,854,980[/TD2] [TD2]$450,337[/TD2][TD2]$2,062,500[/TD2][TD2]$3,300,000[/TD2][TD2]$4,350,000[/TD2][TD2]$10,162,837[/TD2] [TD2]$173,436[/TD2][TD2]$170,000[/TD2][TD2]$177,500[/TD2][TD2]$185,00[/TD2][TD2]$705,936[/TD2] [TD2]$410,022[/TD2][TD2]$380,000[/TD2][TD2]$413,529[/TD2][TD2]$447,059[/TD2][TD2]$1,650,610[/TD2] [TD2] $263,412 [/TD2][TD2] $300,000 [/TD2][TD2] $341,670 [/TD2][TD2] $389,128 [/TD2][TD2] $1,294,210 [/TD2] [TD2] $3,438,705 [/TD2][TD2] $4,966,500 [/TD2][TD2] $6,991,449 [/TD2][TD2] $8,271,919 [/TD2][TD2] $23,668,574 [/TD2] [TD2]$1,618,017[/TD2][TD2]$1,578,720[/TD2][TD2]$1,975,050[/TD2][TD2]$2,033,049[/TD2][TD2]$7,204,837[/TD2] [TD2]$496,092[/TD2][TD2]$2,310,000[/TD2][TD2]$3,052,500[/TD2][TD2]$3,806,250[/TD2][TD2]$9,665,652[/TD2] [TD2]$104,496[/TD2][TD2]$102,430[/TD2][TD2]$111,468[/TD2][TD2]$120,506[/TD2][TD2]$438,900[/TD2] [TD2]$375,363[/TD2][TD2]$335,000[/TD2][TD2]$381,532[/TD2][TD2]$434,526[/TD2][TD2]$1,526,421[/TD2] [TD2] $380,969 [/TD2][TD2] $405,000 [/TD2][TD2] $570,127 [/TD2][TD2] $674,545 [/TD2][TD2] $2,030, 641[/TD2] [TD2] $2,975,747 [/TD2][TD2] $4,731,150 [/TD2][TD2] $6,090,677 [/TD2][TD2] $7,068,877 [/TD2][TD2] $20,866,451 [/TD2] [TD2] $462,957 [/TD2][TD2] $235,350 [/TD2][TD2] $900,773 [/TD2][TD2] $1,203,043 [/TD2][TD2] $2,893,154 [/TD2] [TD2]$367,096[/TD2][TD2]$379.944[/TD2][TD2]$393,242[/TD2][TD2]$407,006[/TD2][TD2]$1,547,289[/TD2] [TD2]$686,404[/TD2][TD2]$710,428[/TD2][TD2]$735,293[/TD2][TD2]$761,028[/TD2][TD2]$2,893,154[/TD2] [TD2]$5,214[/TD2][TD2]$5,300[/TD2][TD2]$5,300[/TD2][TD2]$5,300[/TD2][TD2]$21,114[/TD2] [TD2]-$149,546[/TD2][TD2]-$160,000[/TD2][TD2]-$171,185[/TD2][TD2]-$183,151[/TD2][TD2]-$663,882[/TD2] [TD2]-$37,716[/TD2][TD2]-$35,000[/TD2][TD2]-$32,480[/TD2][TD2]-$30,141[/TD2][TD2]-$135,336[/TD2] [TD2]$5,605[/TD2][TD2]$5,000[/TD2][TD2]$5,000[/TD2][TD2]$5,000[/TD2][TD2]$20,605[/TD2] [TD2] -$777,414 [/TD2][TD2] -$1,050,323 [/TD2][TD2] -$431,727 [/TD2][TD2] -$178,584 [/TD2][TD2] -$2,438,047 [/TD2] [TD2]-$75,076[/TD2][TD2]-$85,000[/TD2][TD2]-$96,236[/TD2][TD2]-$108,957[/TD2][TD2]-$365,269[/TD2] [TD2]-$702,338[/TD2][TD2]-$965,323[/TD2][TD2]-$335,491[/TD2][TD2]-$69,627[/TD2][TD2]-$2.072,778[/TD2]
TESLA 2018-2019
Click to expand...
Fwiw, the 3 deliveries are an overestimate and the 3 GM especially for Q2 is a huge underestimate. How do you justify increasing volume with a decreasing or more negative gm% especially when depreciation is largely going to be the same?
 
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#236
generalenthu said:
Fwiw, the 3 deliveries are an overestimate and the 3 GM especially for Q2 is a huge underestimate. How do you justify increasing volume with a decreasing or more negative gm% especially when depreciation is largely going to be the same?
Click to expand...
I think the 3 numbers are reasonable. 3.5k*11 = 38.5k for Q2, 5k*12 = 60k for Q3/Q4 is within 10k of the total.
I do agree the GM is too low, 5k for EAP is 8.3% GM on a 60k ASP by itself. Q2 is off, it would require 5x the fixed costs to bring the GM down on ~4.5x deliveries (or else the variable costs are greater than the sales price, in which case Q3/Q4 should be negative also).
 
#237
brian45011 said:
The cash cow premise is that operating leverage will result once M3 production achieves planned volumes. The size of the cow depends on execution between 3Q18 through 2Q19. The biggest variable may be how quickly M3 GM% can improve.

My guess at the rest of 2018 follows; 2019 is more difficult to project, partly because I think Tesla will begin M3 leases in NA in 1Q19 and partly because the US FIT credit will be in phase-down mode after 4Q18. I've attached a spreadsheet link at the end of the table for those wanting to see the formulas (and change them and/or the assumptions)
QUARTER]
ASSUMPTIONS
S &X DELIVERIES
M3 DELVERIES
S & X % LEASED
S & X ASP
S & X GM %
M3 % LEASED
M3 ASP
M3 GM %
ZEV CREDIT SALES
GHG/CAFE CREDIT SALES
SOLAR MW
ENERGY STORAGE MWH
REVENUE
S & X SALES
M3 SALES
AUTO LEASING
ENERGY GEN/STOR
SERVICES & OTHER
REVENUE TOTAL
COST OF REVENUE
S & X SALES
M3 SALES
AUTO LEASING
ENERGY GEN/STOR
SERVICES & OTHER
COST OF REVENUE TOTAL
GROSS PROFIT
R&D
SG&A
INTEREST INCOME
INTEREST EXPENSE
OTHER (EXPENSE) INCOME
TAXES
NET (LOSS)/ INCOME
NCI LAYOFF
NET (LOSS)/INCOME SH
[TD2] 1Q18 A [/TD2][TD2] 2Q18 E [/TD2][TD2] 3Q18 E [/TD2][TD2] 4Q18 E [/TD2][TD2] TOTAL 2018 [/TD2] [TD2]21,815[/TD2][TD2]22,000[/TD2][TD2]27,500[/TD2][TD2]28,685[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2] [TD2]8,182[/TD2][TD2]37,500[/TD2][TD2]55,000[/TD2][TD2]72,500[/TD2][TD2]173,182[/TD2] [TD2]0.08[/TD2][TD2]0.09[/TD2][TD2]0.10[/TD2][TD2]0.10[/TD2][TD2]0.09[/TD2] [TD2]$102.70[/TD2][TD2]$100.00[/TD2][TD2]$105.00[/TD2][TD2]$105.00[/TD2][TD2]$103.180[/TD2] [TD2]0.215[/TD2][TD2]0.22[/TD2][TD2]0.24[/TD2][TD2]0.25[/TD2][TD2]23.31%[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]$55.04[/TD2][TD2]$55.00[/TD2][TD2]$60.00[/TD2][TD2]$60.00[/TD2][TD2]$57.51[/TD2] [TD2]-0.1034[/TD2][TD2]-0.12[/TD2][TD2]0.075[/TD2][TD2]0.125[/TD2][TD2]4.89%[/TD2] [TD2]$50,314[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]$125,000[/TD2][TD2]$150,000[/TD2][TD2]$325,314[/TD2] [TD2]$30,015[/TD2][TD2]$30,000[/TD2][TD2]$35,000[/TD2][TD2]$40,000[/TD2][TD2]$135,015[/TD2] [TD2]76[/TD2][TD2]85[/TD2][TD2]92.5[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]353.5[/TD2] [TD2]373[/TD2][TD2]275[/TD2][TD2]362.5[/TD2][TD2]390[/TD2][TD2]1,400.5[/TD2] [TD2]$2,141,497[/TD2][TD2]$2,054,000[/TD2][TD2]$2,758,750[/TD2][TD2]$2,900,733[/TD2][TD2]$9,854,980[/TD2] [TD2]$450,337[/TD2][TD2]$2,062,500[/TD2][TD2]$3,300,000[/TD2][TD2]$4,350,000[/TD2][TD2]$10,162,837[/TD2] [TD2]$173,436[/TD2][TD2]$170,000[/TD2][TD2]$177,500[/TD2][TD2]$185,00[/TD2][TD2]$705,936[/TD2] [TD2]$410,022[/TD2][TD2]$380,000[/TD2][TD2]$413,529[/TD2][TD2]$447,059[/TD2][TD2]$1,650,610[/TD2] [TD2] $263,412 [/TD2][TD2] $300,000 [/TD2][TD2] $341,670 [/TD2][TD2] $389,128 [/TD2][TD2] $1,294,210 [/TD2] [TD2] $3,438,705 [/TD2][TD2] $4,966,500 [/TD2][TD2] $6,991,449 [/TD2][TD2] $8,271,919 [/TD2][TD2] $23,668,574 [/TD2] [TD2]$1,618,017[/TD2][TD2]$1,578,720[/TD2][TD2]$1,975,050[/TD2][TD2]$2,033,049[/TD2][TD2]$7,204,837[/TD2] [TD2]$496,092[/TD2][TD2]$2,310,000[/TD2][TD2]$3,052,500[/TD2][TD2]$3,806,250[/TD2][TD2]$9,665,652[/TD2] [TD2]$104,496[/TD2][TD2]$102,430[/TD2][TD2]$111,468[/TD2][TD2]$120,506[/TD2][TD2]$438,900[/TD2] [TD2]$375,363[/TD2][TD2]$335,000[/TD2][TD2]$381,532[/TD2][TD2]$434,526[/TD2][TD2]$1,526,421[/TD2] [TD2] $380,969 [/TD2][TD2] $405,000 [/TD2][TD2] $570,127 [/TD2][TD2] $674,545 [/TD2][TD2] $2,030, 641[/TD2] [TD2] $2,975,747 [/TD2][TD2] $4,731,150 [/TD2][TD2] $6,090,677 [/TD2][TD2] $7,068,877 [/TD2][TD2] $20,866,451 [/TD2] [TD2] $462,957 [/TD2][TD2] $235,350 [/TD2][TD2] $900,773 [/TD2][TD2] $1,203,043 [/TD2][TD2] $2,893,154 [/TD2] [TD2]$367,096[/TD2][TD2]$379.944[/TD2][TD2]$393,242[/TD2][TD2]$407,006[/TD2][TD2]$1,547,289[/TD2] [TD2]$686,404[/TD2][TD2]$710,428[/TD2][TD2]$735,293[/TD2][TD2]$761,028[/TD2][TD2]$2,893,154[/TD2] [TD2]$5,214[/TD2][TD2]$5,300[/TD2][TD2]$5,300[/TD2][TD2]$5,300[/TD2][TD2]$21,114[/TD2] [TD2]-$149,546[/TD2][TD2]-$160,000[/TD2][TD2]-$171,185[/TD2][TD2]-$183,151[/TD2][TD2]-$663,882[/TD2] [TD2]-$37,716[/TD2][TD2]-$35,000[/TD2][TD2]-$32,480[/TD2][TD2]-$30,141[/TD2][TD2]-$135,336[/TD2] [TD2]$5,605[/TD2][TD2]$5,000[/TD2][TD2]$5,000[/TD2][TD2]$5,000[/TD2][TD2]$20,605[/TD2] [TD2] -$777,414 [/TD2][TD2] -$1,050,323 [/TD2][TD2] -$431,727 [/TD2][TD2] -$178,584 [/TD2][TD2] -$2,438,047 [/TD2] [TD2]-$75,076[/TD2][TD2]-$85,000[/TD2][TD2]-$96,236[/TD2][TD2]-$108,957[/TD2][TD2]-$365,269[/TD2] [TD2]-$702,338[/TD2][TD2]-$965,323[/TD2][TD2]-$335,491[/TD2][TD2]-$69,627[/TD2][TD2]-$2.072,778[/TD2]
TESLA 2018-2019
Click to expand...
I'm thinking more along these lines: Copy of TESLA 2018-2019

(If I did the google doc correctly.)
 
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#238
generalenthu said:
Fwiw, the 3 deliveries are an overestimate and the 3 GM especially for Q2 is a huge underestimate. How do you justify increasing volume with a decreasing or more negative gm% especially when depreciation is largely going to be the same?
Click to expand...

I backed into the 1Q18 GM% for M3 to make the numbers fit what Tesla reported since they do not breakout Revenue and COGS between S&X vs M3. The slightly more negative M3 GM% (-10.3% to -12.0%) was my guess based on guidance in the SH letter and the announced hiring of new employees that will need training. Also, any write-off of capital assets, such as the new conveyor systems, would increase COGS if it is booked in Q2 rather than Q1.
 
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