The M3 terrifies BMW

[Alketi]

Timeline's not looking good for BMW per this article. Tesla is years ahead of them:
Report: BMW is planning a major push into all-electric vehicles

There's a recent Bloomberg New Energy Finance study that predicts (across the board) price parity for EVs in the early 2020s, and yet only a 35% EV market share of new vehicles by 2040.

This 35% by 2040 prediction will likely go down in history with the paltry cell phone market predictions made by "experts" when a cell phone required a briefcase to carry the battery and transceiver hardware.

But, I think this likely echoes either the views (or hopes) of most in big auto -- that they'll have decades upon decades to slowly transition to EVs.

On the other hand, I'd bet that after part 2 of the reveal, which I expect to be a showstopper, Model 3 preorders will explode yet again and likely reach ~750K before production starts. You'd think that'd provide another industry wakeup call, but I suspect the other CEOs will just doubt that Tesla can make the cars profitably, and nothing will change.

 

[Model 3]

I found lots of plans, most of them several years away from implementation.

And that is the problem. They have had a lots of plans - for several years - and they are still several years away from implementation. Same goes for Audi - except that they may actually go forward with their plans now in the aftermath of Dieselgate....

But even once the Bolt goes on sale, there will not be any "competitive" alternatives to Tesla (as a primary vehicle) because the Bolt will not offer a useful high-speed DC charging network and it's cargo capacity with even 4 adults inside will be extremely limited. And, it's ugly.

I agree with everything you say here, but still the Bolt/Ampera-e is my second choice after Model 3.

... come to think of it - it is also my latest choice given that the list currently only have those two names on it

 

[Red Sage]

There's a recent Bloomberg New Energy Finance study that predicts (across the board) price parity for EVs in the early 2020s, and yet only a 35% EV market share of new vehicles by 2040.

This 35% by 2040 prediction will likely go down in history with the paltry cell phone market predictions made by "experts" when a cell phone required a briefcase to carry the battery and transceiver hardware.

But, I think this likely echoes either the views (or hopes) of most in big auto -- that they'll have decades upon decades to slowly transition to EVs.

On the other hand, I'd bet that after part 2 of the reveal, which I expect to be a showstopper, Model 3 preorders will explode yet again and likely reach ~750K before production starts. You'd think that'd provide another industry wakeup call, but I suspect the other CEOs will just doubt that Tesla can make the cars profitably, and nothing will change.

The problem is that 'experts' seem to calculate 'price parity' in a different way than Customers will... That's why they will be completely blindsided by the adoption rate of electric vehicles. When such 'ANALysts' seek to allay the fears of traditional automobile manufacturers by telling them what they want to hear, "Oh, don't worry about it! You've got plenty of time! No one wants these things anyway, unless they are unwashed, barefoot, long haired hippie treehuggers, and those guys have bought a new car since 1974..." they perform a disservice to their Clients. Any automotive executives at companies that have no plans to switch to electric had better plan their retirement ceremonies within the next five years, so they won't be around to accept the blame for the upcoming fall.

 

[Model 3]

This 35% by 2040 prediction will likely go down in history with the paltry cell phone market predictions made by "experts" when a cell phone required a briefcase to carry the battery and transceiver hardware.

It belongs among quotes like this:

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943

 

[ecarfan]

That is not much of a card. I have my TM3 reserved despite it being sedan-ish.

I don't follow what you mean by "not much of a card". My "ugly" comment was directed at the Bolt. The Model 3 is just as beautiful as the Model S, in my opinion.

 

[scaesare]

But isn't it interesting that the core of this discussion, the Model 3, is in fact NOT a 'status' vehicle. It's being priced for the 'regular' people.

Indeed, excellent point.

But it would seem that some here prefer not to let facts stand in the way of their assertions...

 

[scaesare]

Ironically I would be excited, not fearful, if Tesla had real competition! More choices for me.

Although I'd only consider them if they would offer Tesla supercharging capability for a reasonable price.

Agreed.

As a matter of fact, I'm rather pro-Bolt. Not that they got everything right, but getting one of the Big 3 to offer a med-long range EV for a reasonable price point is a positive step in the right direction, IMO. I hope they sell enough for GM to make their next effort even more compelling.

 

[JeffK]

Agreed.

As a matter of fact, I'm rather pro-Bolt. Not that they got everything right, but getting one of the Big 3 to offer med-long rang EV for a reasonable price point is a positive step in the right direction, IMO. I hope they sell enough for GM to make their next effort even more compelling.

When they produce an electric Corvette then we'd know they're invested. haha

 

[SΞXY P100D]

It belongs among quotes like this:

Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943

Looks like history yet again repeating itself.

I see Tesla now as the IBM of the 1950s.

Let's stay ahead of our times folks, alongside Elon & JB. What an exciting time of history-in-the-making and I plan to be at its forefront, with millions upon millions of others to follow. I want Tesla to win, to profit, and myself along with it.

 

[alseTrick]

Agreed.

As a matter of fact, I'm rather pro-Bolt. Not that they got everything right, but getting one of the Big 3 to offer a med-long range EV for a reasonable price point is a positive step in the right direction, IMO. I hope they sell enough for GM to make their next effort even more compelling.

Not me. Chevy/GM can eat dung for all I care. If they and other car manufacturers continue to slack, that's just more market share Tesla can acquire (though Tesla absolutely has to improve production quality and interior aesthetics/functionality, as well as continuing to increase service centers, sales centers and superchargers).

Making an ugly, boxy, weird EV is not progress. It's a half-arsed attempt at acting like you're actually doing something. It's solely being done to meet federal regulations and they are wholly hoping it fails to sell. That way they can go to the Feds and say, "Nobody wants these cars. We shouldn't have to make them anymore." Oh wait, they are literally already doing that and have been for years.

 

[scaesare]

It's solely being done to meet federal regulations and they are wholly hoping it fails to sell.

Given the range, pricing, and aggressive timeline, I'm not convinced of that.

 

[alseTrick]

Given the range, pricing, and aggressive timeline, I'm not convinced of that.

Ignore the ugliness, the fact that it has no long-distance charging network, and that it may not even be able to get close to its 200-mile range on the highway due to its (lack of) aerodynamics.

If Chevy cared about EVs they'd be making an EV Malibu, Impala, etc.

 

[Alketi]

Making an ugly, boxy, weird EV is not progress. It's a half-arsed attempt at acting like you're actually doing something. It's solely being done to meet federal regulations and they are wholly hoping it fails to sell.

I think you're assigning a conspiracy to something that can be more easily described as corporate cluelessness.

The Leaf, Prius, and to some extent, the Bolt, don't look the way they do so those companies could spend tens/hundreds of millions in the hopes that they would fail so they could then prove a point to federal regulators.

Rather, they're tall, boxy hatchbacks because unimaginative auto executives believe that the only people who want EVs are those who threw away their air conditioners, dine by candlelight, have their entire house on switchable power strips, and eat seaweed. Those cars are (arguably ugly) and purely utilitarian because they're marketed at people who want to save the world, and don't care what their cars look like or how they accelerate.

Tesla is the first company to see a larger potential -- that EVs are vastly superior to ICE just based on physics and that if you build a desirable EV, then people of all ages and beliefs will line up for it. The effect of the Model 3 can't be overstated. Tesla HAS to succeed with this.

 

[Saghost]

And that is the problem. They have had a lots of plans - for several years - and they are still several years away from implementation. Same goes for Audi - except that they may actually go forward with their plans now in the aftermath of Dieselgate....

I don't disagree with what you said - certainly the announcement of lots of EVs in 2020 is better than not being announced, but it's all paper cars and a lot can happen in four years - but if you read the context, I was actually talking about plans to make combustion free city centers, not EVs.

 

[MassModel3]

I'm using my magical powers (they come free with every BMW 300e) to make you and all the other Teslerati terrifed by BMW's promo to post on this thread again and again. Way more than me. BMW seems to have struck a nerve in suggesting those waiting for a T3 get a BMW300e in the interim.

EaglesPDX, I marked your post as funny because it's laughable how you just don't get it! You keep saying that Tesla ownership is about status, that BMW's 14 miles of electric range is sufficient, and that Tesla fans and reservation holders are afraid of these paltry attempts by BMW to claim their cars are in any way comparable to a Tesla (electric-wise).

Here's the thing... I've never owned a BMW but I've been a fan as long as I can remember. When they came out with their modified ActiveE evaluation vehicles, I was super excited. They are what actually sucked me in to the EV world and I desperately wanted one. I wanted BMW to build an all-electric that looked great and had great range and performance. Instead they took back all their ActiveE vehicles and introduced the horribly unattractive i3. Yes, they eventually introduced the beautiful and super flashy i8, but starting at $140K and still getting horrible electric range, that is just a status symbol.

Had BMW actually built something that looks like their 3-series that got 200 miles of range, so many current Tesla owners and reservation holders might actually be driving BMW's. And admittedly, there a lot of things BMW does better than Tesla regarding fit, finish, and interior. But they have yet to demonstrate their ability to build an attractive all electric that people both want and can afford. Tesla is doing that.

We don't fear BMW. Believe me, we welcome the competition. But right now, there is none. Fourteen miles electric is not competition for Tesla. And bear in mind, too, that BMW made the commercials, not Tesla. It's BMW that is afraid of Tesla, not the other way around. Tesla lets the product speak for itself, and it's speaking volumes.

 

[Model 3]

but if you read the context, I was actually talking about plans to make combustion free city centers, not EVs.

Sorry - I mixed up your post with the post above you who cited this:

Another wasted effort from BMW ... 2017 BMW 740e Priced At $89,100, Arriving This Month At U.S. Dealerships

My fault

 

[purplewalt]

Ignore the ugliness, the fact that it has no long-distance charging network, and that it may not even be able to get close to its 200-mile range on the highway due to its (lack of) aerodynamics.

If Chevy cared about EVs they'd be making an EV Malibu, Impala, etc.

Baby steps.

Board of Directors do not have the total-autonomy to turn the marketing and engineering aspect of an established long running company completely on its head, at least in short-term periods of time.
They have MANY investors who need to be pleased with sufficient earnings, AND vendors and dealers who need to manufacture and sell existing product every month, or they are in danger of going out of business.

Turning an industry upside down as an "outsider" is much easier to do than to completely re-invent the same wheel you have been building and selling for over 100 years.
Developing long term plans for the evolution to PHEV and BEV is probably already underway.

For all we know, Chevy might already have plans on the drawing boards for EV Malibus, Impalas, Tahoes, etc., or at least comparable models with "new names".
And they may also be working on long-distance charging strategies.

Time will tell.

 

[alseTrick]

I think you're assigning a conspiracy to something that can be more easily described as corporate cluelessness.

Give me a break with "conspiracy". There is no "conspiracy" in the tin-foil sense. But the car manufacturers are CURRENTLY lobbying the US government to REDUCE efficiency standards and are LITERALLY arguing that consumers don't want to buy them so they shouldn't have to make them. That is undeniable.

 

[scaesare]

Ignore the ugliness, the fact that it has no long-distance charging network, and that it may not even be able to get close to its 200-mile range on the highway due to its (lack of) aerodynamics.

If Chevy cared about EVs they'd be making an EV Malibu, Impala, etc.

Yet, if you compare it to a Leaf, Spark, Focus Electric, etc... it may be a rather compelling daily commuter car.

 

[SageBrush]

I don't follow what you mean by "not much of a card". My "ugly" comment was directed at the Bolt. The Model 3 is just as beautiful as the Model S, in my opinion.

And my point is that your personal opinion is of little use in discussions about overall markets.

I don't spend your money, and you do not spend mine. So please refrain from the insults and 'weird-mobile' comments.