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The Next Gigafactory

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jun 21, 2018.

  1. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Continuing improvements in manufacturing productivity, and electrification in particular should free up a lot of German automotive labor.
     
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  2. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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  3. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    I think that there will be two GF opening at about the same time, announced very soon, operating in 12-15 months.

    One will be in China;

    Two will be in Europe;

    Both will produce Model 3, Model Y and TE products. Both will also produce Models S and X on a near-CKD basis.
    Batteries (cells and packs) might be in GF but might also be distinct factories.

    Both involve substantial politics so navigating the current US political disarray with reference to both the EU and China could easily change these decisions.

    There is a very real possibility of a TE facility in Australia and an automotive one in Brazil. Those two are both influenced by domestic markets as well as raw material preferential sourcing.

    Tesla is working hard to hedge political risks. That is a very delicate process facilitated by exceedingly well informed Tesla supporters in each of these locations.

    Within the next few weeks we will have most of this stuff pretty much decided IMO, but premature open discussion would accentuate the political risk. All four can be accomplished with minimal stretch financially.

    Semi and pickup can be produced in any or all of these places, as well as North American ones.

    "Often wrong, but never in doubt.":rolleyes:
     
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  4. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    Que?
     
  5. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    Complete Knock Down- essentially complete vehicle kits are shipped to the 'factory' which then assembles them.

    These are commonly used to cope with high customes duties for complete vehicles. A variant is the Japanese pickup solution in the US. The pickups have a 25% duty, so the complete vehicles, less the bed, was shipped to the US thus not qualifying as a 'truck' the bed is then attached in the US. Done!Variants of that are used globally to minimize whatever duties/taxes/incentives are in place. Almost any local content rule is beatable one way or another.
     
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  6. EV-lutioin

    EV-lutioin Active Member

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    I doubt they will choose any location for a gigafactory that does not look like Mars and have wild horses.
     
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  7. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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  8. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    Absolutely for China, that is a deal-breaker. Conveniently Panasonic has just opened their battery plant in Dalian
    Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China | Headquarters News | Panasonic Newsroom Global
    They operated a subsidiary there since 1995. This new one is a JV, so obtained domestic producer status. It officially produces only prismatic cells, the format used by almost all major BEV producers other than Tesla. How long would it take Panasonic to equip that plant or a new one in shanghai to produce Tesla chemistry, format and design? Notwithstanding the desire for Shanghai, Dalian has a copious supply of Japanese-speaking Chinese people and has long been the center for Japanese direct investment in China.
     
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  9. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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  10. SwTslaGrl

    SwTslaGrl Member

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    If the experience with building GF3 China is positive and demand is greater than the output where will the next Gigafactory be? Is the fastest EV expansion path to build GF4 in China too?
     
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  11. Rarity

    Rarity Member

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    Thanks to @SwTslaGrl for bringing this topic back to the top.

    The China prediction is spot on. Operational in 15 months. However, surprising to me, the Europe prediction is way off.

    What do you think happened? Is Tesla waiting for a free-ish empty factory to be given to them?
     
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  12. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    Simultaneously building two Gigafactories from the ground up -- along with everything else Tesla is doing -- may have stretched Tesla's resources too thin.

    With the first stage of GF3 construction apparently complete and reports that production may begin this month, it wouldn't surprise me to see a GF4 site announcement by the end of the year and groundbreaking as soon as necessary permits/approvals are in place. They could also take over an existing factory but from the shareholder meeting discussion it sounded like they were scouting a site to build from scratch (of course plans can change).
     
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  13. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    I agree entirely with EinSV. I do not think finance us the constraining factory but managing both build outs at the same time was” a bridge too far”. Further, given recent Tesla successes in Europe it is probable that waiting a few months will yield a more attractive GF offer. We will know within the next few months if Elon’s time is on target.
     
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  14. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    Well the refinery has since blown up, so we're ready to roll!

    Interesting to look back on this thread. We thought a 2020 GF3 in China would be impossible and here we are.

    As for Europe.... I'd love to see another cheap buy of a shuttered plant like NUUMI.
     
  15. SwTslaGrl

    SwTslaGrl Member

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    A case study of the "tent" at Fremont - TESLA Assembly Line Facility - Sprung Structures

    It looks like a prototype of GF3 assembly line with material flow through doors along the length of the building.

    It'll be interesting to see if GF4 will be similar.
     
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  16. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    #36 TheTalkingMule, May 9, 2020
    Last edited: May 9, 2020
    Just had a thought.....not sure I like it, but it's interesting. Elon is moving operations to Texas and Germany, the belly of the beast so to speak. What's the next logical step?

    Saudi Arabia is desperate to diversify it's economy and has already failed at building out a new "banking hub" with $10B in "public funds". This dream of Neom is basically a Musk vision.

    Could we see Elon reach out to MBS after maybe a year of them twisting in the wind as oil prices remain stagnated and the end draws closer?

    All the solar you could possibly want, zero rules, billions of dollars of investment. Clearly it crossed his mind around the "funding secured" time period. I wouldn't put it past him as the reality of Mars draws closer?

    First Terafactory?
     
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  17. MC3OZ

    MC3OZ Active Member

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    I don't know if Tesla can trust the Saudis enough to install a car factory, another factory in China or a bigger factory in China makes more sense...

    I'll also add that hat we might see after Battery Investor Day is separate factories for energy storage battery production,

    Locations like Japan,(with Panasonic), Australia and Saudi Arabia make sense for energy storage battery factories, as the capex is lower, and work force is smaller, it is less of an "all in bet". Some Tesla might eventually have 2-3 energy storage factories for every car factory.

    Tesla could also make solar roofs in some energy storage factories including Saudi Arabia..

    You could say I'm meeting you half way there...

    For now the priority is getting the next US GF started ASAP.
     

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