The Resource Angle

[traviskp]

Lithium Americas skipping the NYSE American listing and applying for the NYSE.

https://lithiumamericas.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/LAC_NR_12_29-2017_Final.pdf

 

[Icer]

I really believe he is there to secure lithium, now.
His two deals that got all the press, PEM and Baconera will produce 0 until 2020.
I have not come across anything else wrt source?
Where is he getting the lithium?

My WAG? He isn't


Cathodes 2017
investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-investing/lithium-investing/cathodes-2017-round/

All agreed:
Serious incoming lithium supply issues, from lack of investment and development
and "surprise" EV growth.
$5-7 billion needed next 2-3 years.
Current continuing price/supply pressures
and this bit:
Auto mfrs woke up to this and are in a race to secure existing production of lithium.

My bias towards this is supported by my generally unfounded no facts to back it up belief that the common thread between No Powerwalls, Gigafactory issues and Model3 production is Not Enough Lithium.

He is buying completed cells, that was not the plan.
The one data point for this is the story that Panasonic was shipping everything to him, disrupting supplies elsewhere.
*************

Cobalt? I haven't even read about a way out of that.
Congo
poverty big mess
big ugly

So imagine a point on the horizon,
EVs are common,
where protesters carry signs:
"No War for Cobalt".

 

[JRP3]

My bias towards this is supported by my generally unfounded no facts to back it up belief that the common thread between No Powerwalls, Gigafactory issues and Model3 production is Not Enough Lithium.

Indeed, and certainly not the least bit accurate. Lithium is not the issue.

 

[wdolson]

Tesla would not start selling cars in S. America in Chile.

Chile's economy is one of the strongest in South America. It's smaller than some other countries, but according to this their economic freedom ranking beats the US.

Chile Economy: Population, GDP, Inflation, Business, Trade, FDI, Corruption

 

[AudubonB]

I agree that being dismissive of Chile as a high-priority market is naive. Wealthy, very good infrastructure, stable sociopolitically.

Mexico - makes sense for a lot of reasons, propinquity being high on the list.
Brazil - after all its years of failings and misguidedness, presents a relative problem, but in absolute terms, there is a large enough wealthy class to make for an effective market.
Peru - less of all the above. A pretty distant 4th place.


And after that we're scraping. Colombia doesn't yet have its act together enough to present much of a market; Argentina really is stumbling; Venezuela of course is three-quarters the way down the drain; neither Costa Rica nor Panama have the requisite size and the rest of the Central or South American or Caribbean countries are even smaller or in even worse shape.

 

[RobStark]

Chile's economy is one of the strongest in South America. It's smaller than some other countries, but according to this their economic freedom ranking beats the US.

Chile Economy: Population, GDP, Inflation, Business, Trade, FDI, Corruption

Yada, Yada,Yada and Chile is still not being first for Tesla.

It will be either Brazil or far less likely Argentina.

 

[RobStark]

I agree that being dismissive of Chile as a high-priority market is naive. Wealthy, very good infrastructure, stable sociopolitically.

Mexico - makes sense for a lot of reasons, propinquity being high on the list.
Brazil - after all its years of failings and misguidedness, presents a relative problem, but in absolute terms, there is a large enough wealthy class to make for an effective market.
Peru - less of all the above. A pretty distant 4th place.


And after that we're scraping. Colombia doesn't yet have its act together enough to present much of a market; Argentina really is stumbling; Venezuela of course is three-quarters the way down the drain; neither Costa Rica nor Panama have the requisite size and the rest of the Central or South American or Caribbean countries are even smaller or in even worse shape.

A) During Bachelet's second term Chile's didn't seem that stable with a distinct march towards leftist populism. Preventing expansion of lithium production because political opponents were heading mining companies and trying to expand the welfare state to Scandinavian levels with a GDP per capita of ~$14k. The election of Piñera seems to have haultted this nonsense.

B) Mexico is in North America, not South America

C)Tesla is already selling cars in Mexico and Solar City purchased a local rooftop installer about a year before the merger.

D) Argentina's GDP per capita may be ~9% smaller but population is 2.5x bigger. Much bigger addressable market and it is concentrated around Buenos Aires not spread thinly across Argentina. With election of Mauricio Macri and his allies in Congress Argentina has pulled back from the brink of Venezuelan levels of nonsense.

E) Brazil's GDP per capita maybe a ~ third smaller than Chile's but population is ~12x larger. Much bigger addressable market. And it is concentrated in a few big cities in the South of Brazil not spread across the country.

 

[AudubonB]

Lithium Americas update:

As TravisKP mentioned on 29 Dec., Lithium Americas is going for the full brass ring: it is expecting to have Big Board status before the end of January.

However, contrary to what I had written earlier in December, that "updated" symbol - i.e., from "LACDF" to "LACDD" turned out to be temporary. I've utterly no idea why. But: as of the first week of 2018, the trading symbol once again is LACDF. I suspect this will remain until NYSE status occurs, but all should take note, esp. as the last trade price for LACDD was $9.36 or so and LACDF closed today at $10.02.

 

[winfield100]

Lithium Americas update:

As TravisKP mentioned on 29 Dec., Lithium Americas is going for the full brass ring: it is expecting to have Big Board status before the end of January.

However, contrary to what I had written earlier in December, that "updated" symbol - i.e., from "LACDF" to "LACDD" turned out to be temporary. I've utterly no idea why. But: as of the first week of 2018, the trading symbol once again is LACDF. I suspect this will remain until NYSE status occurs, but all should take note, esp. as the last trade price for LACDD was $9.36 or so and LACDF closed today at $10.02.

yeah, remember when it was WLCDF and $0.57 (57 cents or less)/share

 

[AudubonB]

Well, yes, I do, as I bought our entire position in May 2014 at an average price of 48.7¢/sh....

(full disclosure: this was before the 1:5 reverse split, bringing cost/sh to $2.435)

 

[winfield100]

Well, yes, I do, as I bought our entire position in May 2014 at an average price of 48.7¢/sh....

(full disclosure: this was before the 1:5 reverse split, bringing cost/sh to $2.435)

yeah, i been diddling around with it for years, tho for some weird reason i thought it was a 1:10 split a while back with a symbol change, again, eh. (3x i think) i gotta lotta Li, few Ni and Mo and Co stox and a nano deposition anode stock. The Atacama looks nice 4 some reason. even got some Li tied up in pink tourmaline crystals for inspiration, and a few honking Kunzite crystals ( LiAl(SiO3)2,)
happy investing.

 

[winfield100]

yeah, i been diddling around with it for years, tho for some weird reason i thought it was a 1:10 split a while back with a symbol change, again, eh. (3x i think) i gotta lotta Li, few Ni and Mo and Co stox and a nano deposition anode stock. The Atacama looks nice 4 some reason. even got some Li tied up in pink tourmaline crystals for inspiration, and a few honking Kunzite crystals ( LiAl(SiO3)2,)
happy investing.

oops, looked at brokerage, it was a 1:5 split. you are correct.

 

[JRP3]

Hype Meets Reality as Electric Car Dreams Run Into Metal Crunch

Automakers are finding themselves in unfamiliar—and uncomfortable—terrain, where miners such as Glencore Plc and China Molybdenum Co. for the first time have all the bargaining power to dictate supplies.

“They’re a lot bigger—but the reality is guys like us are holding all the cards,” said Trent Mell, chief executive officer of First Cobalt Corp., which is mining the mineral in northern Ontario and setting up talks with automakers seeking long-term supplies.

 

[JRP3]

Haven't dug all the way through this one but it seems like an in depth look at resources:
http://www.cell.com/joule/pdf/S2542-4351(17)30044-2.pdf

 

[RobStark]

Haven't dug all the way through this one but it seems like an in depth look at resources:
http://www.cell.com/joule/pdf/S2542-4351(17)30044-2.pdf

In a nutshell, don't worry about minerals.

Main concern is Cobalt. Industry is investing in tech and capacity.

Supply will meet demand through 2025 but may be a little short at the end of this time frame if EV demand is at the very high end of global projections.

My only gripe with this report is Gigafactory full capacity stated at 35 GWh in 2020.

 

[renim]

In a nutshell, don't worry about minerals.

.....

Supply will meet demand through 2025 but may be a little short at the end of this time frame if EV demand is at the very high end of global projections.

.....

Disagree

that article has
'
For the L scenario we assume that the distribution of sales between these three technologies (with an average battery pack size of 75 kWh) remains constant, and we extrapolate the market with a 36% CAGR.

For the H scenario we used 10 million BEV sales in 2025 based on the Bloomberg projection of 100 million cars by 2025 (with 10% EV).'

so their H scenario is 10% of the market to be BEV in 2025, who here expects it to be that low. I sure don't.

Cobalt use in Li ion batteries is optional, just as well, because history has shown that the price of Co can rise to the stratosphere.

 

[RobStark]

so their H scenario is 10% of the market to be BEV in 2025, who here expects it to be that low. I sure don't.

Cobalt use in Li ion batteries is optional, just as well, because history has shown that the price of Co can rise to the stratosphere.

I am not talking about us here on the forum or EV bulls.

I am talking about their report and consensus among professional observers.

They also discuss Co substitutes and LIB with lower amounts of Cobalt.

They see these as not being relevant between 2018-25.

And I wrote in a nutshell what they project.

Not reciting all caveats and whatnot and objections from EV bulls and hyperbulls.

 

[AudubonB]

Chile's Soquimich (SQM) is the one black eye I'm seeing today. Other than overall problems in Chile surrounding the papal visit, I've not found a compelling reason yet. Down about 8% after one hour of trading on the NYSE.

 

[pz1975]

Anyone know why LACDF is tanking? I’ve been looking for entry point for awhile. I don’t see any news to explain it.

 

[JRP3]

Me either, seems like mostly positive news: Lithium Americas To Commence Trading on NYSE and Provides Corporate Development Update