The Resource Angle

[jhm]

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/tesl...emand-for-rare-earth-neodymium-20180312-00978

Apparently, Tesla will need some neodymium for the Long Range Model 3. I wonder if this factors into the Semi as well.

 

[jhm]

From this week's Economist: Race to the bottom: Mining the ocean floor is about to go mainstream

Despite the headline, this is still some years away. Selected quotes:

James Hein of the United States Geological Survey and colleagues estimated in a paper in 2012 that the CCZ
holds more nickel, cobalt and manganese than all known terrestrial deposits of those metals put together. The World Bank expects the battery industry’s demand for these, and other, minerals to increase if the transition to clean energy speeds up enough to keep global temperatures below the limits set in the Paris agreement on climate.

[...]

The idea of mining the CCZ is not new. The Pacific’s mineral nodules were discovered by HMS Challenger, a British research vessel that first dredged the abyssal depths in the 1870s. Lockheed Martin, an American defence contractor, tried prospecting the CCZ in the 1960s. Its caterpillar tracks were not reliable enough to operate at such depth, so the company imagined two Archimedes screws to drag its vehicle through the mud. (Lockheed’s deep-sea mining expertise was later used in a CIA operation to recover a Soviet submarine which sank in the CCZ in 1968.) At the time there was hyped speculation that deep-sea mining would develop rapidly by the 1980s. A lack of demand (and thus investment), technological capacity and appropriate regulation kept that from happening. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which set up the ISA, was not signed until 1982. (America has still not ratified it, and thus cannot apply to the ISA for sea-floor-mining permits.)

[...]

If P2 succeeds, it will be time for P3, which will be the size of a small house. It will have two drone escorts, one to move ahead of it and one behind. They will monitor how much silt it disturbs, and will shut down the operation if necessary. Thus, P3 will be able to steer along the seabed autonomously. DEME will then build a customised surface vessel, ending up in about 2025 with a new kind of mining operation, at a total cost of $600 million.​

How can Elon not get excited about this? If you want to mine in space someday, why not master deep sea robotic mining and scope up essential battery minerals.

 

[JRP3]

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/tesl...emand-for-rare-earth-neodymium-20180312-00978

Apparently, Tesla will need some neodymium for the Long Range Model 3. I wonder if this factors into the Semi as well.

"Some electric car motors use the permanent magnet technology, probably the most famous is the Tesla Model 3 Long Range. All the other Tesla models -- Model X and Model 3 standard -- use induction motors," said David Merriman, a senior analyst at metals consultancy Roskill.

First I've heard of this. Doesn't really make sense if the PM motors are more efficient why not use them to get the most range out of a smaller pack? Fake news?

 

[ggr]

First I've heard of this. Doesn't really make sense if the PM motors are more efficient why not use them to get the most range out of a smaller pack? Fake news?

I think that quote qualifies as just plain wrong.

 

[jhm]

First I've heard of this. Doesn't really make sense if the PM motors are more efficient why not use them to get the most range out of a smaller pack? Fake news?

Could be fake. What do we know about Roskil or David Merriman?

 

[AudubonB]

This is a catchy-headlined article on today's Bloomberg feed:

This Commodity Investor Is Hoarding the World’s Cobalt Supply

Hmm. Zzzat so? Well, the extent to which someone tries to corner a market is the extent to which such action creates the appropriate incentive for consumers to act else wise. As in this case, (1) making batteries with no cobalt; (2) opening new sources of cobalt; and so forth. Deus ex machina events also can occur (a government stepping in and destroying your monopoly by expropriating your stockpile is one possibility).

But read the article. In it we learn that: "Milewski says his cobalt is from non-Congo mines." To which I respond with two letters, the first of which is "b" and the second begins a word that rhymes with nitwit. The article's photo of Milewski shows him standing in front of tons of cobalt briquettes from the Nikkelverk refinery. That's owned by Glencore, almost all of whose cobalt comes from their Katanga (Congo) mines.

Nitwit, indeed.

On edit:
(1) some information about Glencore, cobalt and Congo here: This is how much copper, nickel, cobalt an electric vehicle world needs | MINING.com

(2) those orange drums in the photographs each contain 250kg of cobalt

 

[jhm]

This is a catchy-headlined article on today's Bloomberg feed:

This Commodity Investor Is Hoarding the World’s Cobalt Supply

Hmm. Zzzat so? Well, the extent to which someone tries to corner a market is the extent to which such action creates the appropriate incentive for consumers to act else wise. As in this case, (1) making batteries with no cobalt; (2) opening new sources of cobalt; and so forth. Deus ex machina events also can occur (a government stepping in and destroying your monopoly by expropriating your stockpile is one possibility).

But read the article. In it we learn that: "Milewski says his cobalt is from non-Congo mines." To which I respond with two letters, the first of which is "b" and the second begins a word that rhymes with nitwit. The article's photo of Milewski shows him standing in front of tons of cobalt briquettes from the Nikkelverk refinery. That's owned by Glencore, almost all of whose cobalt comes from their Katanga (Congo) mines.

Nitwit, indeed.

On edit:
(1) some information about Glencore, cobalt and Congo here: This is how much copper, nickel, cobalt an electric vehicle world needs | MINING.com

(2) those orange drums in the photographs each contain 250kg of cobalt

The huge upshot here is stimulating investment in cobalt resources and alternatives ahead of actual need for EVs.

EV detractors are sure that the high price of cobalt is permanent bad news for EVs. But high prices new just pay the way for increased supply. So I welcome the high prices.

 

[wdolson]

The huge upshot here is stimulating investment in cobalt resources and alternatives ahead of actual need for EVs.

EV detractors are sure that the high price of cobalt is permanent bad news for EVs. But high prices new just pay the way for increased supply. So I welcome the high prices.

If the batteries requires some sort of exotic element that really is rare like a lot of platinum or gold, then the prices would skyrocket, but the world's known cobalt supply is large enough to meet the demand, it just hasn't been mined and a lot of it is in places that aren't politically the best places to go to for supply. Those are fundamentally different problems. In the former case, you are up against the laws of nature, in the latter you're dealing with the problems that are completely human.

 

[McMuggets]

Just throwing this out there... look up eCobalt. Ticker is ECS.CA on Canadian exchange. They have the only US cobalt i believe.

 

[mblakele]

This week's Economist reported that "GEM, a battery-recycling firm in Shenzhen, signed a contract with Glencore to provide it with 50,000 tonnes of cobalt, a key element in car batteries. That is half the total amount of cobalt produced worldwide last year.". So I went looking for details and found this:

Glencore signs massive cobalt sale deal with China's GEM

Glencore Plc, the world’s biggest producer of cobalt, has agreed to sell around a third of its cobalt production over the next three years to Chinese battery recycler GEM Co Ltd, according to a filing by GEM on Wednesday.

Glencore will sell 52,800 tonnes of cobalt hydroxide to GEM between 2018 and 2020 as demand for cobalt, a critical metal in lithium-ion batteries, soars on a forecasted boom in electric vehicle sales.

Expectations of supply shortages have fueled a cobalt rally that has taken prices to around $39 a pound, from near $10 a pound in January 2016 and to their highest level since July 2008, before the financial crisis started.

According to the filing, GEM and its subsidiaries will purchase 13,800 tonnes of cobalt hydroxide from Glencore in 2018. They will buy 18,000 tonnes in 2019 and 21,000 tonnes in 2020.

Glencore, whose cobalt is mined as a byproduct from its copper and nickel mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Canada and Australia, expects to produce around 39,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2018 - equal to about 35 percent of estimated global production.

Glencore expects its cobalt production to rise to 65,000 tonnes in 2019 and dip to 63,000 tonnes in 2020.​

 

[ggr]

Just throwing this out there... look up eCobalt. Ticker is ECS.CA on Canadian exchange. They have the only US cobalt i believe.

Or US ADRs at ECSIF.

 

[JRP3]

Mines run by Glencore (GLEN.L), Randgold Resources (RRS.L) and three other international companies have quit the Democratic Republic of Congo's chamber of commerce, saying the industry body does not adequately represent their interests after the introduction of a new mining law.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glencore-randgold-mines-quit-congolese-161913624.html

 

[hcsharp]

Glencore, whose cobalt is mined as a byproduct from its copper and nickel mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Canada and Australia, expects to produce around 39,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2018 - equal to about 35 percent of estimated global production.

It's interesting to note that Glencore expects to increase production of Cobalt by over 65% in 2018. It's hard to increase production of Cobalt without also increasing copper production by the same amount. I wonder if their copper production is growing by 65% and if so, what's driving the increase.

 

[jhm]

EVs need 12 to 15 times as much copper as cobalt. The cobalt yield in typical cobalt rich copper mines is around 6%. So this is not a bad ratio copper to cobalt matching supply and demand. Also EVs need about 3.6 times as much nickel as cobalt. So developing more cobalt rich nickel resources is also needed.

I'd also point out that in northern Europe there are old copper mines. The tailing from these mines are being considered as a source of cobalt which was simply tossed out for lack of value when these old mines where in production.

As far as I can determine, the basic problem is cobalt is that miners have been much more focused on copper or nickel production where cobalt was just a low value co-product. There has be no economic incentive to look for cobalt at a primary target. Thus, I am quite optimistic that a higher price for cobalt will be sufficient to increase the supply of cobalt. It will not lead to over production of either copper or nickel because EV demand drives much more demand for both of those metals on a per ton basis. The earth is not lacking for cobalt. It simply hasn't been worth prospecting and developing in the past.

 

[jhm]

Glencore, Randgold mines quit Congolese industry body ahead of govt talks

The DRC government is trying to extract higher royalties. I suspect they think cobalt will command a higher price and justify these royalties. But the miners are trying to protest this and threatening to cut production. I believe this is just a bargaining tactic. The risk that DRC gov faces here is that miners will simply develop more cobalt resource outside of the country, which then would then backfire on the attempt to increase royalties.

I happen to have friends from DRC who confirm that the government is very corrupt and that the increase in royalties would do little for ordinary Congolese, but simply enrich politicians personally. It is also important to understand that this corruption is why labor laws and laws protecting children in particular are not well enforced. The problem here is bad government, not the price of cobalt or any other mineral. It's frustrating to me that the anti-EV crowd wants to condemn EVs because of artisanal mining when political corruption is a root.

 

[jhm]

New study rips into cobalt, lithium price bulls | MINING.com
WoodMac sees cobalt price decline in 2019 due to new supply outpacing demand.

 

[JRP3]

Or they are trying to imply some connection which may not actually be there.

 

[winfield100]

Or they are trying to imply some connection which may not actually be there.

you may be correct, so i deleted my post. However, i do like the process, and it seems legit, so, im still there. I'm also becomoing leery of cobalt27. ie DRC or not DRC?

 

[JRP3]

I posed that question in the comment section of Matt Bolshen's article about Cobalt27, and though Anthony Milewski showed up in the comment section to answer some questions he has as of yet not addressed that one.

 

[winfield100]

I posed that question in the comment section of Matt Bolshen's article about Cobalt27, and though Anthony Milewski showed up in the comment section to answer some questions he has as of yet not addressed that one.

cobalt blue has done me nicely (+14%) tho as has NNOMF (+40%) im more focused on NNOMF as it's a generic process that can be licensed and if they are telling truth, much more efficient, use cheaper materials LiOH and LiCOx and fewer steps. been following them for a few years