The unofficial "when do I get my FSD beta update" FAQ

[tps5352]

I see and feel both sides of this discussion.

1. Justifiable frustration with Tesla's current marketing/development strategies for FSD.
   
   
2. Sympathy/respect for Tesla's technological intentions.
   
   IF Tesla can pull off true FSD (before most other manufacturers) it will be a huge thing, and as a result FSD will probably cost considerably more than the current $12,000. Meanwhile, for better or worse Tesla is using part of its customer base as test subjects for a product that does not yet do what the name implies. Whether this group of test subjects, and those waiting to become test subjects, have been adequately informed is a matter of opinion.

For my part I can understand the anger about all this, but Tesla did and continues to warn us about FSD Beta, albeit arguably in the fine print.

Just a reminder of the history of the AP, EAP, and FSD options (from Post #147).

I found this a very helpful graph to put things in perspective. It tells me important things:

• It was always expensive (at least $8,000) to get all the AP/EAP/FSD features.
• Arguments that FSD was originally only $3,000 appear to be out of context (or even disingenuous).
• Since the AP/EAP/FSD marketing model was "flipped"/simplified in late 2019 (i.e., now just "free" AP and paid-for FSD option), the price of FSD has been occasionally rising (the graph doesn't show the FSD increase to $12,000). This trend will probably continue.
• What this graph says nothing about, of course, is the whole FSD Beta testing issue.

What would be interesting is a graph plotting numbers of FSD Beta purchasers, subscribers, and testers. Is that data readily available?

As often, my biggest complaint with Tesla is not with what it is trying to do, but instead with how it communicates about it to customers.

 

[Mardak]

AP became a standard feature… There was a relatively brief period in 2020 when FSD cost only $7,000

The graph is a bit misleading regarding total price for FSD dropping when Autopilot became standard. From Tesla's blog An Update to Our Vehicle Lineup, the base vehicle price increased by $2000 with the previously-$3000 Autopilot included. Factoring that in, the total FSD cost has effectively started at $8k -> $9k -> still $9k with Autopilot included -> $10k -> $12k -> $14k now.

 

[Warbird]

As often, my biggest complaint with Tesla is not with what it is trying to do, but instead with how it communicates about it to customers.

I agree with most of your points, excepting the last one.
Its relevant to Tesla getting rid of their PR department.
I do not think it would be worth their time to communicate more.
Relative to other companies, we benefit from an astounding amount of information from inside and outside the company..

Can you imagine trying to unwind the vitriol in this one thread...impossible.
Better to spend their time on development.
I look at their actions, the pace of their progress speaks for itself.

We will hopefully all get FSD in due time, it will be worth every penny they charge, and many lives will be saved.
In the meantime, we can enjoy the banter.

 

[tps5352]

The graph is a bit misleading regarding total price for FSD dropping when Autopilot became standard. From Tesla's blog An Update to Our Vehicle Lineup, the base vehicle price increased by $2000 with the previously-$3000 Autopilot included. Factoring that in, the total FSD cost has effectively started at $8k -> $9k -> still $9k with Autopilot included -> $10k -> $12k -> $14k now.

Thanks. There are so many factors. And companies hide stuff in plain sight.

 

[backinthelab]

One big issue to me is NOT being able to look at it as a good investment when the price inevitably goes higher. I know I won’t have my X anymore by the time FSD comes full-circle so every day that they delay releasing the beta to me makes my investment worth less in my eyes.

I understand the nuisances involved with this development and would be more onboard had there been a clear communication from Tesla, but the fanboys that claim that no one has a right to be upset just make me want to pull my hair out. Many people have had their money on this going on six years, they have every right to expect full consideration.

 

[Lowchrg]

FSD Beta 10.10 (2021.44.30.15) rolling out but unlikely to include new entries as most production software safety score participants are on 2022.4 now.

More carrots.

 

[Raurele]

FSD Beta 10.10 (2021.44.30.15) rolling out but unlikely to include new entries as most production software safety score participants are on 2022.4 now.

More carrots.

Historically, can you prove that people with version numbers ahead of beta don’t get invites? I haven’t seen that.

 

[Lowchrg]

Historically, can you prove that people with version numbers ahead of beta don’t get invites? I haven’t seen that.

It’s not about the invite, Tesla never downgrades unless there is a problem. If you’re already on a 2022 firmware they won’t roll you down to a 2021 branch.

 

[TheProton]

Thanks. There are so many factors. And companies hide stuff in plain sight.

Also don’t forget the special price for early cars without autopilot. 2k for autopilot and 3k for FSD, So I paid 5k to have it all..

 

[EVNow]

I refer you to this article and its graphs (that educated me):

I hope you know Troy gets his stats from people who add their configuration etc to the tracking sheets. The tracking sheets were quite representative early on with a large % of actual owners using them. Now it is a very small fraction of the people - so I've no idea how representative it is.

 

[saflak]

Thanks for your opinion. It means nothing.

Agreed, arrogant comes to mind. Any way you cut or slice it, we paid for the FSD years ago, and we should be able to participate in city/town driving FSD. I have no problem being kicked out if I am driving unsafely but give us a chance. If it is fear of the almighty government regulators that is keeping a general release to FSD buyers, then let us join in a writing campaign to the elected reps to keep the regulators in line. Bottom line, release the FSD to those who paid for it!

 

[tps5352]

...there are what?--two or three thousand on-the-road testers in the USA?...

...Now we know it’s 60,000...

...What would be interesting is a graph plotting numbers of FSD Beta purchasers, subscribers, and testers. Is that data readily available?...

Here is some very preliminary numbers of (a) people who have (purchased or leased) FSD (in red) and (b) FSD Beta testers (mostly in the USA only, so far) (in blue).

Comments

• FSD Beta testing (following application and acceptance via the Tesla App safety score tool) was first offered to selected customers on October 11, 2021 (prior to this various versions of FSD Beta had been road tested by Tesla employees). Am I right to think the initial number of customer testers was around 2,000?
  
  
• The number of testers apparently grew to about 12,000 by the end of 2021.
  
  
• With subsequent software updates the number increased to the current 60,000 in 2022.
  
  
• I am first to acknowledge that these data are very sketchy and could/should change. In particular, so far I have verified just the one FSD owner/leaser datum--150,000. (Is that just for the US, or does it include drivers in other countries?) Since people have purchased FSD for many years, surely that number started smaller and grew over time. Additional information is needed for the early FSD and FSD Beta testing years.
  
  
• If anyone has reliable data to ad or correct numbers or to fill-in gaps, please let us know.
  
  
• If you can provide data, please include:
  • estimated numbers if FSD owners and/or FSD Beta testers,
  • the (online) source reference address, and
  • the reported date of the number estimate(s).
• If this analysis has already been done, please let me know so I can direct interested readers there.

 

[Robotpedlr]

I dont think any new FSD Beta testers were added in 2022 yet. I think the big surge to nearly 60k happened in late 2021.

 

[SilverString]

As often, my biggest complaint with Tesla is not with what it is trying to do, but instead with how it communicates about it to customers.

Yes that is one reason so many people get upset. It seems so random but my feeling is that Tesla withholds this information so as not to obligate themselves into any particular path or decision at this state of the rollouts.

 

[tps5352]

I dont think any new FSD Beta testers were added in 2022 yet. I think the big surge to nearly 60k happened in late 2021.

Hmm,...interesting.

People with experience with statistics and graphical presentation may (correctly) point out that my dashed lines connecting data points are not valid. Without more data we can't know what actually happened in between the dots.

All I know at this point is that on December 22nd 12,000 testers was reported; then in February of this year 60,000 was reported. We need more info, yes.

 

[EV70]

Hmm,...interesting.

People with experience with statistics and graphical presentation may (correctly) point out that my dashed lines connecting data points are not valid. Without more data we can't know what actually happened in between the dots.

All I know at this point is that on December 22nd 12,000 testers was reported; then in February of this year 60,000 was reported. We need more info, yes.

You need to show timing of the changes in the safety score requirement. There were big bumps in users each time they lowered the threshold which got to 97 in late December. I also have not heard of anyone being added in January. I'm guessing there's a hold until V11.

 

[Gilliland]

Hmm,...interesting.

People with experience with statistics and graphical presentation may (correctly) point out that my dashed lines connecting data points are not valid. Without more data we can't know what actually happened in between the dots.

All I know at this point is that on December 22nd 12,000 testers was reported; then in February of this year 60,000 was reported. We need more info, yes.

It would appear that Tesla added enough new beta participants to reach 60,000 on December 24. A huge number of people were added on that day, and I am not aware of any being added since then.

 

[Mardak]

All I know at this point is that on December 22nd 12,000 testers was reported; then in February of this year 60,000 was reported

Where did you get those dates and numbers? I would trust the NHTSA recall numbers as there was probably some rounding of ~54k up to 60k although still pretty accurate compared to the initial population of thousands. Here's my estimates:

Indeed there's been long gaps of no new additions to FSD Beta especially compared to early days where there were even daily additions, but unclear if that's specially for holiday update, NHTSA recalls, upcoming FSD Beta 11, if the population is "large enough" and/or some other reason.

 

[tps5352]

Where did you get those dates and numbers? I would trust the NHTSA recall numbers as there was probably some rounding of ~54k up to 60k although still pretty accurate compared to the initial population of thousands. Here's my estimates:...

Indeed there's been long gaps of no new additions to FSD Beta especially compared to early days where there were even daily additions, but unclear if that's specially for holiday update, NHTSA recalls, upcoming FSD Beta 11, if the population is "large enough" and/or some other reason.

Excellent. Now we would just need data for the total number of FSD owners and leasees. But that graph you provided is good.

 

[EV70]

Where did you get those dates and numbers? I would trust the NHTSA recall numbers as there was probably some rounding of ~54k up to 60k although still pretty accurate compared to the initial population of thousands. Here's my estimates:
View attachment 766034

Indeed there's been long gaps of no new additions to FSD Beta especially compared to early days where there were even daily additions, but unclear if that's specially for holiday update, NHTSA recalls, upcoming FSD Beta 11, if the population is "large enough" and/or some other reason.

That's the chart I was thinking of that I thought was a great chart. I couldn't remember where I saw it, and I just found it in your post in another thread!!