There are 6 major configurations of the Model 3, poll question about some getting $7,500 tax credit

[dhanson865]

In another thread US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker I posted about the 6 possible major configurations of the Model 3 and which I thought would have access to the $7,500 tax credit. I'm posting here to see how the poll agrees or disagrees with my view and record our group view to compare vs this fall.

As a reminder this image covers the phaseout in concept and the configurations mentioned in this poll would have to be ordered, manufactured, and delivered to at least one non employee before either June 30th 2018 or September 30th 2018 to qualify for the $7,500 credit shown in the green sections for Scenario 1, 2, or 3:

3 major configuration items x 2 possibilities (get it or don't) = 6 major configs. The major items are:

LR battery pack $9,000
AWD (price unknown - call it $4,000)
Premium (PUP) $5000

assuming black paint, 18" wheels, no autopilot, and the prices above you get these configs sorted by price

1. AWD "all in" AWD + PUP + LR
2. "First available" - PUP + LR - NO AWD
3. AWD LR - NO PUP
4. AWD PUP - NO LR
5. AWD - NO PUP - NO LR
6. BASE BASE BASE Model 3 with no major options.

This poll combines the factors

A. When will Tesla cross 200,000 US cars delivered
B. When will Tesla open up configuration and start delivering AWD cars
C. When will Tesla open up configuration and start delivering cars with the short range pack
D. When will Tesla open up configuration and start delivering cars without the PUP

Place your bets (nothing more than your vote in the poll) and see if you are right or wrong come June 30th or September 30th 2018.

 

[nvx1977]

How many of these configurations will be sold to non employees before the $7,500 tax credit runs out

One ought to clarify what "runs out" means here. When I took the poll, I assumed the point up to the $7500 credit getting halved. But if you mean when the tax credit completely expires, I'd be choosing something different.

 

[FlatSix911]

Scenario 3 in the Graphic is the most likely... Tesla produces 200K+ in April 2018 and the full $7,500 credit phases out in September 2018.

 

[dm33]

In the graph, were in January 2018. We know they won’t cross 200k now so that scenario isn’t useful.

The new debate is could Tesla divert cars to Canada to cross 200,000 cars in July thereby extending the full rebate through the end of the year.

 

[dhanson865]

One ought to clarify what "runs out" means here. When I took the poll, I assumed the point up to the $7500 credit getting halved. But if you mean when the tax credit completely expires, I'd be choosing something different.

You parsed correctly, the poll is for full $7,500 not the $3,750 portion or the later $1,875 section.

I'd clarify in the first post but you can't edit after 10 minutes.

 

[dhanson865]

In the graph, were in January 2018. We know they won’t cross 200k now so that scenario isn’t useful.

The new debate is could Tesla divert cars to Canada to cross 200,000 cars in July thereby extending the full rebate through the end of the year.

The point of scenario 1 vs scenario 2 is to make it clear that it doesn't matter what month or day you hit 200,000 just what quarter you hit in. Both take a step down to $3,750 on the same date. Hitting 200,000 anywhere between Jan 1 and Mar 31 has the same effect no matter the actual date.

And if you think they can prolong the credit phase out later than the image scenarios you can choose more config options to come to bear during that time or not depending on how many configs you think become available in that time frame.

The later option isn't guaranteed but if it plays out it's in the scope of this poll. We can revisit it on June 30th, September 30th 2018, or December 31 2018. All are valid if the $7500 credit lasts until then and hasn't stepped down to $3,750 in the prior quarter.

 

[intjester]

There are more than 6 possible configs.

+LR & PUP & AWD
+LR & PUP
+LR & AWD
+LR
+PUP & AWD
+PUP
+AWD
BASE

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla has already answered the poll question with the most optimistic dates available for a Tesla owner (Elon Time)

 

[R.S]

Tesla has already answered the poll question with the most optimistic dates available for a Tesla owner (Elon Time)

View attachment 280078

Now everything besides first production is late 2018? OK IMO that pretty much solves the problem of which cars will get the full incentives. There is even the possibility, that many base cars won't even get the halve credit.

The German credit will end in June 2019, so I guess I will still get that, albeit it's lower than your full credit, about $5000.

 

[dhanson865]

There are more than 6 possible configs.

+LR & PUP & AWD
+LR & PUP
+LR & AWD
+LR
+PUP & AWD
+PUP
+AWD
BASE

You have a point. Adding the two missing configs there are 8 configs, 7 prices.

+LR
+PUP & AWD

both have the same price assuming LR battery pack $9,000 = AWD (price unknown - call it $4,000) + Premium (PUP) $5000.

I think the poll is valid enough with 6 options, I'm not sure dealing with the extra complexity of the missing mid option adds any value to the discussion. I'm not sure the lowest missing config won't be out before the $7,500 goes away and it would be valid to argue PUP only is more profitable than AWD only or BASE.

I suppose that I missed the PUP only option shows how I value that package vs AWD. But I can't say why I ignored LR only, should have been obvious. I blame the flu.

 

[dhanson865]

Tesla has already answered the poll question with the most optimistic dates available for a Tesla owner (Elon Time)

View attachment 280078

That image doesn't factor in the Tax phaseout in any way and so doesn't select any option on the poll. Pleast stay on topic, take it to Tesla owner configurations begin if you just want to post a pic of configuration dates.

 

[FlatSix911]

That image doesn't factor in the Tax phaseout in any way and so doesn't select any option on the poll. Pleast stay on topic, take it to Tesla owner configurations begin if you just want to post a pic of configuration dates.

It's highly relevant to your poll as Tesla does not plan to deliver the SR or AWD Model 3 before late 2018, so the full $7,500 is gone.
The truth will set you free...

 

[TJtv]

You're forgetting the Performance versions. I'd be shocked if Tesla started selling any SR versions of the 3 before they start selling the Performance versions.

 

[dhanson865]

You're forgetting the Performance versions. I'd be shocked if Tesla started selling any SR versions of the 3 before they start selling the Performance versions.

We have no proof by way of the current configuration choices that a Performance version is coming any time soon. I suppose since it isn't in the configurator as a "I'm waiting for" option it won't be here in 2018 and thus won't be eligible for a $7,500 tax credit.

I'm thinking either the AWD is the performance version or the Performance version isn't coming until after the AWD and Base trims have cleared the backlog. Either way I don't think it fits in this poll.

 

[cab]

It's highly relevant to your poll as Tesla does not plan to deliver the SR or AWD Model 3 before late 2018, so the full $7,500 is gone.
The truth will set you free...

Um, mine still shows the Dual Motor AWD (either SR or LR) as Mid 2018 as of a few minutes ago...(note: I have been able to configure for a few weeks now).

 

[dm33]

We have no proof by way of the current configuration choices that a Performance version is coming any time soon. I suppose since it isn't in the configurator as a "I'm waiting for" option it won't be here in 2018 and thus won't be eligible for a $7,500 tax credit.

I'm thinking either the AWD is the performance version or the Performance version isn't coming until after the AWD and Base trims have cleared the backlog. Either way I don't think it fits in this poll.

I think Tesla will keep inventing new options before the base model ever comes out. Don't forget white interior. That adds interior options, AWD, performance, range. Lots of permutations before you get to a base car.

 

[PhaseWhite]

If Tesla is hurting for cash and wants to increase margins they will make the Performance version available as soon as possible. This will improve Teslas finances allowing a margin hit on the base model

 

[Unchangeable]

So no one brings up the LR option without the PUP, except a mention in this thread. If I could get that configuration by EOY I might splurge for it above my current bare bones intended config.

 

[dhanson865]

1. AWD "all in" AWD + PUP + LR
2. "First available" - PUP + LR - NO AWD
3. AWD LR - NO PUP
4. AWD PUP - NO LR
5. AWD - NO PUP - NO LR
6. BASE BASE BASE Model 3 with no major options.

This poll combines the factors

A. When will Tesla cross 200,000 US cars delivered
B. When will Tesla open up configuration and start delivering AWD cars
C. When will Tesla open up configuration and start delivering cars with the short range pack
D. When will Tesla open up configuration and start delivering cars without the PUP

Place your bets (nothing more than your vote in the poll) and see if you are right or wrong come June 30th or September 30th 2018.

So the list of configs is now:

LR battery pack $9,000
AWD $4,000
Premium Upgrades Package (PUP) $5000

There are 9 major hardware configs (now with poll option numbers and prices in bold)

1. $64,000 Performance (not a poll option)
2. $53,000 AWD "all in" AWD + PUP + LR (poll option 1)
3. $49,000 "First available" - PUP + LR - NO AWD (poll option 2)
4. $48,000 AWD LR - NO PUP (poll option 3)
5. $44,000 AWD PUP - NO LR (poll option 4)
6. $44,000 LR, no PUP, no AWD (not a poll option)
7. $40,000 PUP, no AWD, no LR (poll option 5)
8. $39,000 AWD - NO PUP - NO LR (not a poll option)
9. $35,000 BASE BASE BASE Model 3 with no major options. (poll option 6)

adding the ones I missed previously and the Performance config I didn't see coming.

A. When will Tesla cross 200,000 US cars delivered?

I'm going with July 2018, leaving full $7,500 credit until Dec 31, 2018

B. When will Tesla open up configuration and start delivering AWD cars?

Configuration already happened, Delivery of AWD non performance will definitely happen during the $7,500 period. Anybody that chose option 1 in the poll is out of the running already.

C. When will Tesla open up configuration and start delivering cars with the short range pack?

Remains to be seen.

D. When will Tesla open up configuration and start delivering cars without the PUP?

Remains to be seen.

All we need is either a no PUP or no LR option configured and we are past option 2 in the poll. It would be interesting if somehow option 4 were available before option 3. I'm still guessing both will be available before the end of the year to make that a non issue.

For those curious I chose option 4 in the poll but I still think there is room for a cheaper config to make it out and prove me conservative in that guess.

 

[dhanson865]

So no one brings up the LR option without the PUP, except a mention in this thread. If I could get that configuration by EOY I might splurge for it above my current bare bones intended config.

4. $48,000 AWD LR - NO PUP (poll option 3)
6. $44,000 LR, no PUP, no AWD (not a poll option)
9. $35,000 BASE BASE BASE Model 3 with no major options. (poll option 6)

LR without the PUP you say, but with or without AWD?