There will be NO HW4 upgrade for HW3 owners

[argon2018]

I'm not arguing my point of view here, just trying to convey what I think Tesla will argue when this inevitably leads to legal action. They will argue that for most owners, FSD as SAE Level 3+ was never actually promised.


When this inevitably leads to further legal action that is, beyond all the similar/related cases already on the docket

What do you mean, he claimed on the first AI day, all Teslas with HW3 will become robotaxis. or another example such as the car will be able to drive from LA to NY without any human intervention (that was written on their website and since it has been removed".

 

[stopcrazypp]

Did he or did he not say that the current hardware will be a Robotaxi and as a result an appreciating asset? that's level 5 autonomy. These were mentioned on the first AI autonomy day. Was it not mentioned on their website that the car can drive from LA to NY without any interventions? that's not ADAS. Thats level 4 autonomy

Note "without any interventions" does not describe L4. You can have an L2 car that can make that drive "without any interventions". The difference between L2 and L3+ is that the driver doesn't need to monitor the vehicle while it is operating.

The Robotaxi bit you can argue is L4, but that was what Elon said verbally and Tesla will likely argue that is not part of the contract. That means at most they would be stuck with false advertising for that part.

It's whatever was on their website, especially the order page, that they would be liable for contract-wise. That's why Tesla have long since changed their order page to remove references that suggest L4 functionality.

On the autopilot page they still have reference to the old FSD claims, but I tested it just now and the order page never links to that page. I tested it on the Model 3 page and even that does not link to it even in the Autopilot section.
Model 3 | Tesla
So Tesla may claim that was just archived content that may not necessarily directly tie to new orders.

 

[AndrewZ]

Note "without any interventions" does not describe L4. You can have an L2 car that can make that drive "without any interventions". The difference between L2 and L3+ is that the driver doesn't need to monitor the vehicle while it is operating.

The Robotaxi bit you can argue is L4, but that was what Elon said verbally and Tesla will likely argue that is not part of the contract. That means at most they would be stuck with false advertising for that part.

It's whatever was on their website, especially the order page, that they would be liable for contract-wise. That's why Tesla have long since changed their order page to remove references that suggest L4 functionality.

Exactly. People will take it to court and argue that fine print on the website and tweaks to the wording over time don't negate all the messaging over the years from Elon, that the public perception was different, etc etc. And I think all that is totally valid and will result in stuff, but not without a fight.

The wording has been very carefully sculpted to omit tying it to SAE Levels for all these reasons. FSD says nothing about SAE Levels, operating at 10x the safety of a human doesn't mean it's Level 4-5, interventions have nothing to do with ownership of the driving task.

SAE Level 4-5 is defined by the manufacturer taking ownership of the DDT within an operating domain, generalized Level 4-5 means the ODD is everywhere. Robotaxis are not unlocked until that happens, and making that happen will require massive risk mitigation for the manufacturer. It's not happening on HW3, but I would love to be proven wrong.

 

[argon2018]

My take having tested FSDBeta since 10.2 is that the cars sees traffic just fine. It doesn't need better cameras or sensors. Where it needs work is in the path prediction and planning. I have no idea (and I don't think anyone else does either) if they are CPU bound with the current compute hardware but given that they are running both stacks and comparing them makes me think they have plenty of computing horsepower. I think there is room for plenty of improvement still on HW3 to get to what was implied when I bought my car. I'm not worried about it. I've seen tons of progress in the last couple of years and nothing to indicate that my car doesn't have the HW needed.

I have had FSD beta since it started too. But the progress has been slow and will probably take much longer (many years). What I don't understand is how a genius person like Elon claimed that by next year all teslas with HW3 will be Robotaxi, and they demonstrated the robotaxi network on Tesla app. That was a couple of years ago. This is insanity. He literally said the car would make money for you when you are home sleeping ...."an appreciating asset". This is insanity. And now that he says it's not "economically feasible to upgrade HW3 to HW4" its like pouring gas on fire.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I have had FSD beta since it started too. But the progress has been slow and will probably take much longer (many years). What I don't understand is how a genius person like Elon claimed that by next year all teslas with HW3 will be Robotaxi, and they demonstrated the robotaxi network on Tesla app. That was a couple of years ago. This is insanity. He literally said the car would make money for you when you are home sleeping ...."an appreciating asset". This is insanity. And now that he says it's not "economically feasible to upgrade HW3 to HW4" its like pouring gas on fire.

He thought the improvement would be exponential, like once they got the basic functionality of controlling the car working, that the rest would happen at a rapid clip given the huge amount of data they were gathering (which was growing exponentially).

Instead, it turned out almost the opposite, it was more like asymptotic, where they got to a basic level very quickly (it being able to perform the action of left/right turns, respond to traffic lights/stop signs etc), but the corner cases are taking a very long time to address. The huge amount of data they gathered didn't really help in this regard.

 

[argon2018]

He thought the improvement would be exponential, like once they got the basic functionality of controlling the car working, that the rest would happen at a rapid clip given the huge amount of data they were gathering (which was growing exponentially).

Instead, it turned out almost the opposite, it was more like asymptotic, where they got to a basic level very quickly (it being able to perform the action of left/right turns, respond to traffic lights/stop signs etc), but the corner cases are taking a very long time to address. The huge amount of data they gathered didn't really help in this regard.

Well as long as he delivers on the promise with current HW3. Otherwise he needs to provide an upgrade to HW4 with wide angle cameras, allow transfer of FSD to a new Tesla.

Elizabeth Holmes thought she can achieve such BS too. You can just make up claims and have to be held accountable. I’m sure Tesla is far ahead but there will be legal repercussions if there is no upgrade or if he can’t deliver robotaxi on HW3

 

[argon2018]

Note "without any interventions" does not describe L4. You can have an L2 car that can make that drive "without any interventions". The difference between L2 and L3+ is that the driver doesn't need to monitor the vehicle while it is operating.

The Robotaxi bit you can argue is L4, but that was what Elon said verbally and Tesla will likely argue that is not part of the contract. That means at most they would be stuck with false advertising for that part.

It's whatever was on their website, especially the order page, that they would be liable for contract-wise. That's why Tesla have long since changed their order page to remove references that suggest L4 functionality.

On the autopilot page they still have reference to the old FSD claims, but I tested it just now and the order page never links to that page. I tested it on the Model 3 page and even that does not link to it even in the Autopilot section.
Model 3 | Tesla
So Tesla may claim that was just archived content that may not necessarily directly tie to new orders.

Yeah I know they removed that page bc it will not be achievable by HW3 not bc of the chip but bc of the cameras

 

[argon2018]

Exactly. People will take it to court and argue that fine print on the website and tweaks to the wording over time don't negate all the messaging over the years from Elon, that the public perception was different, etc etc. And I think all that is totally valid and will result in stuff, but not without a fight.

The wording has been very carefully sculpted to omit tying it to SAE Levels for all these reasons. FSD says nothing about SAE Levels, operating at 10x the safety of a human doesn't mean it's Level 4-5, interventions have nothing to do with ownership of the driving task.

SAE Level 4-5 is defined by the manufacturer taking ownership of the DDT within an operating domain, generalized Level 4-5 means the ODD is everywhere. Robotaxis are not unlocked until that happens, and making that happen will require massive risk mitigation for the manufacturer. It's not happening on HW3, but I would love to be proven wrong.

I vividly remember that he actually said Tesla would take a percentage of robotaxi network. Obv he messed up and a bigger mess when not upgrading. What did FSD owners pay for ? Visualization of the cars on the road?

 

[argon2018]

I mean seriously the cameras haven’t changed in since introduction of model 3 Wtf

 

[ArchHamster]

Any speculation on a paid upgrade/retrofit? It seems like a no to me... imma be a bit mad if hw4 re-adds radar. Autosteer has never been as good as my radared y. He wasn't even willing to maintain the old radar. I bet after hw4 releases he forgets about hw3 and we stop getting updates.

 

[AndrewZ]

I think this hardware is essentially done with wide release, deactivation of the camera button, and recognition of the revenue in the company’s financials. Updates might still come, but I imagine the focus will shift to the next iteration in HW4.

This is pretty much exactly how it was secretly described to the California DMV, although I expected the company to still provide upgrades throughout tbh.

 

[gsmith123]

I'd love to know what Tesla leadership is actually thinking at this point. There's a few different stances they might reasonably hold based on the data they have:

1. They have no plan of shipping L3+ functionality on HW3 ever. They know that a subset of FSD cars today are contractually owed that, so for that cohort they have a few options:
   1. Plan to wait until that those vehicles literally die of old age
   2. Just take whatever financial penalties are enforced from a lawsuit. It's not that many cars so the damages may be small enough to just swallow.
   3. Retrofit HW4
      1. Variation: maybe retrofit a HW3.5...? For whatever reason they view HW4 is difficult to retrofit which implies it's more than just a new computer or new cameras they can plug in. Maybe a partial retrofit of new computer but leave off any new sensors or camera positions.
   4. Buy or replace these vehicles
   5. Refund FSD
   6. Combine one of the above with a carrot of free FSD on a new car when trading in these vehicles
2. They think it will be possible to meet the promised functionality on HW3 (so this would be participation in a robot taxi fleet, driving from NY to LA or whatever they said)
   1. HW4 can still happen but isn't required. It could still: increase top speed on AP, improve smoothness, improve safety more, handle inclimate weather, etc

If I were a ruthless exec that doesn't really care about doing the right thing ethically a lot of the #1 options look pretty appealing. Delay as long as possible, wait for the lawsuit, try to persuade people to opt out of the class action settlement with a promise of free FSD on a new car (that's literally a free solution to Tesla), and pay out the damages to everyone else. How high could the damages be at most? 5x the original cost these owners paid for FSD? That's so little, and the longer they delay by continuing to ship meaningful progress on HW3 the smaller the financial hit gets relative to Tesla's overall revenue and profits.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Of course, Elon is going to say that retrofitting HW4 isn't going to happen. He wants to sell new cars. Notice that no one outside of Tesla knows which future models will have HW4. The CT supposedly will, but it's still vaporware. Once a CT rolls off that assembly line, we outsiders will have a better idea of the capabilities of HW4. It's quite possible that it won't drive any better that HW3. It may just be designed to be future-proof.

 

[argon2018]

I think this hardware is essentially done with wide release, deactivation of the camera button, and recognition of the revenue in the company’s financials. Updates might still come, but I imagine the focus will shift to the next iteration in HW4.

This is pretty much exactly how it was secretly described to the California DMV, although I expected the company to still provide upgrades throughout tbh.

Well, they announced that there are 400K FSD beta customers in the US. I think that's a large number of pissed-off customers that will sue the company if promises are not delivered.

 

[WyoDude]

Well as long as he delivers on the promise with current HW3. Otherwise he needs to provide an upgrade to HW4 with wide angle cameras, allow transfer of FSD to a new Tesla.

Elizabeth Holmes thought she can achieve such BS too. You can just make up claims and have to be held accountable. I’m sure Tesla is far ahead but there will be legal repercussions if there is no upgrade or if he can’t deliver robotaxi on HW3

You can keep making a comparison to Elizabeth Holmes but this is an ignorant take.

 

[DarkForest]

Current FSD beta requires 2x more attention as it does dangerous breaks, or completely misses things.

I’ve wondered if the Beta is easier to use for people with ADHD.

For me, it requires a fraction of the attention necessary for manual driving. Supervising and intervening when needed is way easier than having to do everything myself. I just keep my foot hovered over the accelerator and my thumb near the right scroll wheel.

I assume Elon has ADHD as well which would explain why the Beta works the way it does.

 

[Tam]

You can keep making a comparison to Elizabeth Holmes but this is an ignorant take.

Very similar.

No one currently could analyze a chemistry panel from a tiny volume of blood. That doesn't mean we still need a decent size of blood tube to do so in the future. We used to need the whole tube of blood to get a glucose reading. Now we only need a drop of blood (Diabetic patients do this easily). That's the idea for Elizabeth Holmes' company.

Similarly, no one has achieved L5, robotaxi that let the car earns money for owners while they sleep at home. That doesn't mean L5 will never happen in the future because Waymo has proven that it can achieve L4 in specific cities. That's the idea for Elon Musk.

 

[gsmith123]

I’ve wondered if the Beta is easier to use for people with ADHD.

For me, it requires a fraction of the attention necessary for manual driving. Supervising and intervening when needed is way easier than having to do everything myself. I just keep my foot hovered over the accelerator and my thumb near the right scroll wheel.

I assume Elon has ADHD as well which would explain why the Beta works the way it does.

Interesting. I don't mind supervising FSD either, at least when I'm driving alone.

Tying Elon's (potential) mental health state to the behavior of the car seems like a step too far though. The, uh, oddities of how FSD behaves aren't there because Elon or any of the engineering team want it to be like that; it's a side effect and end result of an very complex software system that's designed to be reasonably safe in imperfect conditions.

 

[WyoDude]

Very similar.

No one currently could analyze a chemistry panel from a tiny volume of blood. That doesn't mean we still need a decent size of blood tube to do so in the future. We used to need the whole tube of blood to get a glucose reading. Now we only need a drop of blood (Diabetic patients do this easily.)

Similarly, no one has achieved L5, robotaxi that let the car earns money for owners while they sleep at home. That doesn't mean L5 will never happen in the future because Waymo has proven that it can achieve L4 in specific cities.

Ignorant argument. Compare their careers side by side. One of your examples was basically the only innovation of their career and the foundation was all fake.

 

[Tam]

Ignorant argument. Compare their careers side by side. One of your examples was basically the only innovation of their career and the foundation was all fake.

Bernie Madoff started his career in penny stock.

Then owned one of the largest penny stock brokerage and wealth management firms.

Great computer entrepreneur

NASDAQ adopted his electronic trading system

Chairman of the NASDAQ

Chairman of the board of directors of the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD)

His brokerage firm processed 10%-15% of all the trading orders for the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Well respected philanthropist.

Despite of his impeccable "career" above, he's now in jail for 150 years.