There will be NO HW4 upgrade for HW3 owners

[argon2018]

WTAF.

I find this hard to fathom really. Please humour me as I don’t fully understand what you get when paying such a vast amount for FSD. What does it do as of today?

And you paid for FSD three times with each car and each time it didn't deliver on their promise?

well, the most I have paid is for my latest car, Model X 2022. The most I have paid for FSD was 10K not the 16K that is now. But I have been a Tesla fan since 2018 when I got the Model 3 and told everyone that it will revolutionize car industry like iPhone. I have been a investor. and that's why it pisses me off so much. because I believed that an increase in the price of FSD would make up for necessary hardware/softwawre improvements that it will be needed.

All teslas currently use the same cameras (not to mention I lost Lidar on my model X, which would be disabled anyways) from 2017. That's almost 6 years ago. that's kind of crazy.

 

[azred]

Intel, Nvidia and AMD constantly produce a new generation of CPUs and GPUs that are more capable than the previous generation of chips. This process is known as planned obsolescence. But the improvements only matter if the consumer is hampered by running a piece of vital software on an old chip.

I prefer to wait and see what HW3 can't do, before I start whining.

I agree that there is no point in worrying at this point. I’m not happy that my two Teslas on HW3 may stop getting meaningful software updates after HW4 is rolled out, but no one knows if that will be the case. We did see that happen to the folks with the Mobileye product but of course that wasn’t a Tesla-designed product so after the Mobileye divorce was finalized meaningful future updates were doomed.

Of course software updates aren’t the only issue. I know it sucks to be faced with buying MCU2 and perhaps better cameras etc etc but I have already popped for MCU2 and would be willing to pay for better cameras if that becomes an option. Is that fair to those of us who bought the Elon BS in 2016? No, but if the alternatives are seeking my money back in Small Claims Court or paying for additional hardware, I probably will reluctantly reach in my wallet again.

 

[BobHinden]

I feel sorry for those folks that have bought multiple cars and kept buying into the broken promises of FSD.
This buyer isn't falling for it though. Model Y will replace our 3 later this year and have I a reservation for a Cybertruck, neither of which will get FSD until they deliver something that doesn't have "beta" tagged on the end.

I have "FSD" on my 2018 M3, but like you we didn't buy it when we got a MYLR last year. What's the saying, fool me once, shame on you, fool me again, shame on me.

I am doubtful that my M3 will get real FSD in its lifetime. Fortunately, I purchased it as an upgrade when they had it on sale at some point.

 

[argon2018]

Intel, Nvidia and AMD constantly produce a new generation of CPUs and GPUs that are more capable than the previous generation of chips. This process is known as planned obsolescence. But the improvements only matter if the consumer is hampered by running a piece of vital software on an old chip.

I prefer to wait and see what HW3 can't do, before I start whining.

The current cameras are not wide-angle enough for left and right turns especially if there is a high-speed cars coming your way since the car uses vision only it requires higher resolution cameras to see further. This has been proven. Just watch the following link then you will understand. The car was supposed to be capable for ride-sharing on the Tesla network that they showcased on their AI day (like Trevor Milton staging a Nikola) meaning when you are not using your car it can be used for ride-sharing on the Tesla network and make money for you, hence why Elon keeps saying appreciating asset.

Some of us have been owners since 2018 and have been a fan and an investor. This is like an F you to all of us who supported Tesla all along and made friends and family members buy the car. The current placement of the cameras has a blind spot. A healthy human neck can rotate 180 degrees to see left and right and make decisions of the upcoming traffic coming. Current camera placement doesn't have that unless they upgrade the cameras to wide angle to compensate for that feature.

AI day tesla2019

Watch this video and you will understand what promises were made.

How long do you think a car can last before the warranty runs out and maintenance becomes so expensive that you have to buy a new car which at that point has depreciated?

I have seen the evolution of Tesla from a highway autopilot, and I have been a beta tester from the beginning. it's years before it can ever do ride-sharing (he promised it next year at 2019 for ride-sharing, that's either delusion or deception, or both). Now I understand why some talented people like Karpathy left. Other car companies are far behind but they can will use Mobileeye an Israeli company that intel purchased. They will likely beat Tesla to it. Israel has developed Apple Silicon which far outperforms the industry. Pegasus software that can tap into your iPhone with one iMessage is also an Israeli company so there is a lot of talent there.

But if Elon says that we cannot retrofit new cameras with cameras from 2017 and change FSD chip, then this will become an issue.

if Elon blames regulatory approval, then you can ask how come google's waymo is allowed to operate without a human and is now out of beta.

 

[argon2018]

I have "FSD" on my 2018 M3, but like you we didn't buy it when we got a MYLR last year. What's the saying, fool me once, shame on you, fool me again, shame on me.

I am doubtful that my M3 will get real FSD in its lifetime. Fortunately, I purchased it as an upgrade when they had it on sale at some point.

I did the same back in the days when it went on sale for 2K; I immediately bought it. I wish kept it, but just last year I traded it for a Model Y because the prices were favorable for used cars. Don't sell it, cause by law they have 6 years from when you bought it to deliver the promises.

 

[argon2018]

I agree that there is no point in worrying at this point. I’m not happy that my two Teslas on HW3 may stop getting meaningful software updates after HW4 is rolled out, but no one knows if that will be the case. We did see that happen to the folks with the Mobileye product but of course that wasn’t a Tesla-designed product so after the Mobileye divorce was finalized meaningful future updates were doomed.

Of course software updates aren’t the only issue. I know it sucks to be faced with buying MCU2 and perhaps better cameras etc etc but I have already popped for MCU2 and would be willing to pay for better cameras if that becomes an option. Is that fair to those of us who bought the Elon BS in 2016? No, but if the alternatives are seeking my money back in Small Claims Court or paying for additional hardware, I probably will reluctantly reach in my wallet again.

I'm also willing to pay for the retrofit upgrade. But that may not be possible as Greentheonly has pointed out that it requires more than just a swap and the current wiring and cables may not allow that

 

[argon2018]

Not true, they had a long description that described the capabilities in detail right in the order page. That's what they may be contractually liable for those people that ordered the option based on that description. They since removed that (apparently around 2019) and moved it to the autopilot page, but from what I can find, they don't link to that from the order page, nor from the model page. Instead the order page only refers to Autosteer on City streets (which they said explicitly is an L2 feature to the CA DMV) as the last deliverable. Tesla will likely argue for those 2019+ cars that is the last deliverable, because that was what was promised on order page.

It puts them in an awkward situation where they promised more to older cars, which makes it hard to do partial retrofits (it doesn't make much logical sense for cars older than 2019 to get future retrofits and newer not).

I suspect if they fail with HW3 (and HW4 can't be retrofitted), they will just do (partial) refunds to the older buyers, as they paid much less anyways. Then fight the 2019+ buyers. Them removing the description from the order page likely was to prepare for this scenario anyways.

Tesla announces all production cars now have fully self-driving hardware

Once again our readers guessed it right (well 40% of you). You said that today’s announcement would be about Autopilot...

electrek.co

thanks for posting this but this applies for when you bought the car. I wish I kept mine from 2018. I can't claim this as they have removed it from their website for obvious reasons. Honestly because of the claims he made for robotaxi and ridesharing back in 2019 on AI day, he may be charged for Fraud like Trevor Milton staging a Nikola.

And now all of a sudden, they want to introduce their own version of robotaxi? wait I thought we were all going to be part of the ride-sharing Tesla network that was showcased on their app on AI day hence why he has been saying appreciating asset. We got scammed big time. Elon is a genius and has succeeded in all of his companies but this may get him into trouble big time.

 

[argon2018]

Just imagine the naive people that pay will pay 16K for a soon-to-be obsolete FSD... SAD

 

[argon2018]

I feel sorry for those folks that have bought multiple cars and kept buying into the broken promises of FSD.
This buyer isn't falling for it though. Model Y will replace our 3 later this year and have I a reservation for a Cybertruck, neither of which will get FSD until they deliver something that doesn't have "beta" tagged on the end.

If I were you, I would not sell the model 3 that has FSD. Especially now that the trade-in prices have gone down. Keep model 3 for a little longer until it becomes 6 years from that date. Then they may have to refund your whole car. Wait and see what happens in the next few months with the debut of cybertruck.

 

[argon2018]

I keep seeing people pointing to the March 2019 date as being a fundamental shift in what the FSD package is supposed to give, and while I think it is something that would be argued in court, I don't think the change on the order page would actually be enough to free Tesla of their previous definitions of the product. In the order process they never give an actual meaningful definition of FSD. This is a feature that costs well over a third of the value of a base model 3 being sold to average consumers. A well informed consumer is likely to seek out the definition of FSD based upon previous statements by Musk and the company in general (including the pre March 2019 definition). The product name hasn't changed and nothing on their site or the motor purchase agreement says anything about what FSD is or (more importantly) isn't.

I think there is validity to their argument in recent cases that they are behind their schedule but are still committed to delivering the product. At some point waiting is not reasonable and courts will decide that threshold. What is not reasonable is if they have been continuing to market FSD without a clear definition of what is being bought when they know that they can't deliver the previous promises with what they are seling. If they are unable to deliver the previously promised FSD capabilities with the current hardware and don't provide the changes required to deliver that then I fully expect that many state attorney generals will get involved in pursuing fraud charges against Tesla and possibly executives directly for the vehicles purchased after they would have reasonably known that they couldn't deliver what they had previously promised. I frankly bought my Tesla almost entirely because of what has been promised with FSD; I know the old saying of "buyer beware" that doesn't alleviate a company of culpability for actual fraud.

With the statements in the earnings call it seems quite clear that they know they are on thin ic; they may be able to meet enough of the promises with HW3 to placate most people and not get hit too hard by the courts but they also know that there is some chance that they are in actual jeopardy of a massive write off for retrofits (they wouldn't admit that until actually doing it though). My suspicion is that they will do pretty decent with HW3 so that most people are satisfied. It will likely be enough to avoid being too juicy of a target for class action or AG action and then they will deal with other cases on an individual basis.

He was saying by next year (in 2019) there will be one million robotaxis. Appreciating asset.. He will be charged with Fraud just like Trevor Milton staging their BS.

Someone pointed out that the threshold is 6 years by law. But who knows?

 

[M109Rider]

I feel sorry for those folks that have bought multiple cars and kept buying into the broken promises of FSD.
This buyer isn't falling for it though. Model Y will replace our 3 later this year and have I a reservation for a Cybertruck, neither of which will get FSD until they deliver something that doesn't have "beta" tagged on the end.

For some that swap vehicles regularly, that may be the case.
Or if you bought in at $6k, and are keeping the car, those owners may be happiest down the road if the price keeps going up.
There is always two ways to view things.

 

[M109Rider]

He was saying by next year (in 2019) there will be one million robotaxis. Appreciating asset.. He will be charged with Fraud just like Trevor Milton staging their BS.

Someone pointed out that the threshold is 6 years by law. But who knows?

You keep saying he has 6 years, and then he will be charged. Is that a fact of law, or your opinion based on something you read some place. I don’t know myself.

If it’s not fact, your comments aren’t much different, or at least might be considered along the same lines of what you’re accusing Tesla of doing by stating them. …

 

[argon2018]

Great post. You're right about the 2016-2017 era, but beyond that Musk definitely did claim that full non-intervention autonomy was possible with all cars being sold. I'm sure lawyers will figure it out, but I am really not sure how they can walk back the claims, or at least so heavily implied there really isn't any other explanation for what was said.

In 2019, Musk said:

“Buying a car today is an investment into the future. I think the most profound thing is that if you buy a Tesla today, I believe you are buying an appreciating asset – not a depreciating asset.”

along with

"The cars currently being produced, with the hardware currently being produced, are capable of full self-driving.”

So this is HW3 era, and the only way to interpret this is that HW3 capable cars will appreciate in value because their owners will be able to monetize driver-free autonomy in the future. That's not possible with Level 2, or for that matter even level 3. In fact outside of very specific pre-mapped areas, only level 5 would give this kind of "appreciation" unless your car is just shuttling people around an airport or a parking lot.

Let's not even get into how much our cars just "appreciated" in the last 2 weeks!

TBH, this entire thread breaks my heart, because exactly what has just happened was predicted by plenty of people in 2018, 19, 20 etc., and they were subjected to some astonishing vitriol and venom on this forum, especially from the TSLA crowd. I was suspended from this forum for suggesting FSD (HW3) would never achieve 'robo-taxi' type functionality or any kind of non-intervention autonomy in the TSLA and was repeatedly castigated for it.

And yet, there are still defenders. I really love my 2018 P3D for what it is. It's the best car I've owned, I am even getting Tesla Solar so haven't entirely fallen out with the company, but it's always been a bit of a cult and even now there are plenty of people lacking critical thinking skills who will leap to the defense of everything and anything they do.

You eloquently described the current situation. People need to watch the original AI day, and the delusional claims that Elon made. I have always appreciated free software updates, no other car company would give it for free but fooling people into the fact that their car is an appreciating asset is nonsense with current HW3 (the chip is not the problem but cameras need to be changed for wider angle and one with high resolution radar which then require the upgraded FSD chip)

 

[argon2018]

You keep saying he has 6 years, and then he will be charged. Is that a fact of law, or your opinion based on something you read some place. I don’t know myself.

If it’s not fact, your comments aren’t much different, or at least might be considered along the same lines of what you’re accusing Tesla of doing by stating them. …

I have no idea. Someone here linked a website that there is a threshold and it’s 6 years. No idea but looked like legit website

 

[M109Rider]

I have no idea. Someone here linked a website that there is a threshold and it’s 6 years. No idea but looked like legit website

Uh Huh.
Well, if you keep those posts up for 6 years, you’ll be charged.
Read that someplace on here I’m sure.

 

[jabloomf1230]

This is categorically not what planned obsolescence is, what you’re describing is just progress.

Planned obsolescence is designing things with components that are known to wear out and are not fixable such that the consumer is forced to buy a new one even though the device is still otherwise fit for purpose.

I'm not going to argue with you for fear that you work for either Intel, AMD or Nvidia.

 

[mylapore]

SAE Level 4-5 is defined by the manufacturer taking ownership of the DDT within an operating domain, generalized Level 4-5 means the ODD is everywhere. Robotaxis are not unlocked until that happens, and making that happen will require massive risk mitigation for the manufacturer. It's not happening on HW3, but I would love to be proven wrong.

Since their current director of Autopilot doesn't even know what an ODD means and is just as clueless on many other important topics (

https://twitter.com/x/status/1614743058092019712

), I doubt they actually have any competent people working on making real improvements on ADAS features.

My expectations from them on working driver assist solutions are so low that I was mildly shocked to see the Auto turn feature come in with my latest update. I am not holding my breath for a working Tesla Vision solution to help with parking assist, let alone advances in FSD.

 

[Goose66]

Exactly. People will take it to court and argue that fine print on the website and tweaks to the wording over time don't negate all the messaging over the years from Elon, that the public perception was different, etc etc. And I think all that is totally valid and will result in stuff, but not without a fight.

The wording has been very carefully sculpted to omit tying it to SAE Levels for all these reasons. FSD says nothing about SAE Levels, operating at 10x the safety of a human doesn't mean it's Level 4-5, interventions have nothing to do with ownership of the driving task.

SAE Level 4-5 is defined by the manufacturer taking ownership of the DDT within an operating domain, generalized Level 4-5 means the ODD is everywhere. Robotaxis are not unlocked until that happens, and making that happen will require massive risk mitigation for the manufacturer. It's not happening on HW3, but I would love to be proven wrong.

I don't get where you say Tesla hasn't said anything about SAE levels. Elon Musk is the CEO - what he says is a statement by Tesla. Here are various Musk predictions/quotes from Autonomy Day 2019:
- Full Level 5 Autonomy by end of the year
- By the middle of 2020, Tesla’s autonomous system will have improved to the point where drivers will not have to pay attention to the road (that's per se L3+).
- “We will have more than one million robotaxis on the road,” Musk said. “A year from now, we’ll have over a million cars with full self-driving, software... everything.” (robotaxis is per se L4+)
- "These cars will be Level 5 autonomy with no geofence, which is a fancy way of saying they will be capable of driving themselves anywhere on the planet, under all possible conditions, with no limitations."
But that wasn't the last time they promised L5. Musk said in July 2020 "I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year." And there's probably more. Frankly by mid-2020 I had heard so many worthless promises and predictions regarding FSD from Elon, I stopped listening to the man.

 

[pilotSteve]

He thought the improvement would be exponential, like once they got the basic functionality of controlling the car working, that the rest would happen at a rapid clip given the huge amount of data they were gathering (which was growing exponentially).

Instead, it turned out almost the opposite, it was more like asymptotic, where they got to a basic level very quickly (it being able to perform the action of left/right turns, respond to traffic lights/stop signs etc), but the corner cases are taking a very long time to address. The huge amount of data they gathered didn't really help in this regard.

Well, DUH! Its the *complexity* of achieving each doubling of safety that increases exponentially!!!

 

[pilotSteve]

I have "FSD" on my 2018 M3, but like you we didn't buy it when we got a MYLR last year. What's the saying, fool me once, shame on you, fool me again, shame on me.

I am doubtful that my M3 will get real FSD in its lifetime. Fortunately, I purchased it as an upgrade when they had it on sale at some point.

For what it's worth.... I purchased FSD on my 2017 S90D and its been quite a long stream of updates and mods to finally achieve FSD as of 2022!! Yes I had to pay for MCU2 (but that upgrade is immediately notable with improved responsiveness and HW3 computer), then cameras were updated in late 2021 (under warranty, no charge) and just before Christmas I *FINALLY* got FSD. So: persist, insist they update your cameras under warranty, and only pay $$$ for perhaps the MCU2 upgrade. In the end it is quite satisfying (as an owner) that I FINALLY got usable FSD functions, and they work quite well IMO.