There will be NO HW4 upgrade for HW3 owners

[Dewg]

I expect the cameras take longer than 10ms exposure time just to capture an image.

That is likely referring to the NN processing time once it has the data sent from the ON. Each frame takes 33ms if the cameras are operating at 30fps.

 

[kabin]

I expect the cameras take longer than 10ms exposure time just to capture an image.

I'm with ya. I'll see if I can find the video - it was one of the team presentations.

 

[kabin]

I'm with ya. I'll see if I can find the video - it was one of the team presentations.

It's in this recap of Tesla's AI Day 2022. And the attention getting comment was something like this:

This system is very efficient, runs entirely in the car, and is optimized for memory and computing use, running all in real-time in 10ms.

 

[Supcom]

The system referred to for the 10ms was just the occupancy network portion of the processing.

 

[kabin]

It's a head scratcher. Maybe the ON up-samples the output rate via interpolation and propagating previous iteration estimates versus using 10ms real time measured data but that's well short of 10ms real time data.

 

[EVNow]

I estimate this at about 0.5 seconds.

Elon was saying in one of the podcasts, a year back, the total latency is something like 100 to 200 ms. They wanted to improve it with various elements slated for V11 (a lot of that has been implemented). I don't think the lag is 0.5 sec long.

I expect the cameras take longer than 10ms exposure time just to capture an image.

At 30 frames per second, it should take about 30 ms per frame, right ?

 

[qdeathstar]

Apparently there will be no free upgrade Elon Musk kills hope of Tesla retrofitting new Autopilot/Self-Driving hardware

Which seems very unfair given I paid 10k and other folks here paid even more. Honestly that makes me want to pursue some sort of recourse.

Yes, it does. I’ll be first to sign up for the class action as soon as hw4 features surpass hw3

 

[stopcrazypp]

It's a head scratcher. Maybe the ON up-samples the output rate via interpolation and propagating previous iteration estimates versus using 10ms real time measured data but that's well short of 10ms real time data.

It simply means the ON runs at 100fps (being able to spit out a new set of values every 10 ms). Does not necessarily have to be interpolation, if the cameras are not synced (like there is no sync signal to ensure all the cameras are capturing each frame at exactly the same time), then it could possibly be getting new data at more than 33ms rate. Also if other NNs or functions feed the ON, it can also do a update in between frames even if there is no new camera data.

 

[Supcom]

Elon was saying in one of the podcasts, a year back, the total latency is something like 100 to 200 ms. They wanted to improve it with various elements slated for V11 (a lot of that has been implemented). I don't think the lag is 0.5 sec long.


At 30 frames per second, it should take about 30 ms per frame, right ?

Not necessarily. The processing should be a pipeline with multiple stages. So long as the pipeline can accept data every 30ms, it could be working on multiple frames at different stages simultaneously.

Keep in mind as well, that it takes multiple frames to determine what each dynamic object in the scene is doing. velocity and acceleration estimates require comparing multiple images. The car must make these determinations before it can act, so, if the latency through the pipeline is 200ms, you must add 30ms for each additional frame required to make a descision. Then add whatever latency the physical controls require to actually brake, accelerate and steer require.

And, it's likely not quite that simple. Some processing, like AEB, may shortcut the pipeline.

 

[dramsey]

It's not a "perception" when he claimed on the first AI day all Teslas with HW3 will become robotaxis. or another example such as the car can drive from LA to NY without any human intervention (that was written on their website and since it has been removed".

which part of that is a perception?

You keep saying this, but neither Elon or Tesla ever said that "driving from LA to NY without human intervention" was a currently available capability. It was always phrased with a "by [certain date long past]" proviso.

Also, I don't ever recall seeing it on the web site. Elon would be quoted as saying it in various articles, like this one:

Self-driving cross-country trip possible for everyone with a Tesla this year, says Musk

Tesla's cross-country roadtrip has been planned for "the end of this year" for a few years now. Will this be the year it finally happens?

electrek.co

If you can provide a screen shot or something from the web site, please do.

 

[gearchruncher]

Not a cross country trip, but this was the description of autopilot on October 20th, 2016, the day AP2 was announced, and it lasted for a few years. It even covers the use case of nobody being in the car at all.

Full Self-Driving Capability​

Build upon Enhanced Autopilot and order Full Self-Driving Capability on your Tesla. This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

 

[BBTX]

I think the FSD price of increases over the past few years will be a pretty killer argument against Tesla in court if things go down that road. It's hard to reconcile the idea that they intentionally downgraded the definition of the purchased FSD option in 2019, which is effectively admitting that HW3 is a known dead end for achieving those original aims, while they also continually increased the FSD price ever since, saying publicly that this was because they were getting closer to "achieving FSD" or whatever.

 

[argon2018]

Again with the assumptions stated as facts. This is your thing I guess.
The media does that very same thing on a daily basis. Don’t be like the media.

The cameras see vehicles pretty far ahead. I know this as fact, because it shows them on the screen way down the road.
Is it possible that in an instance where the car might brake late, it’s not because it can’t see the vehicles, but for another reason ?

Unfortunately not based on my research. They got rid of LiDAR but now it requires a higher resolution camera, it’s like analogue to a 80 year seeing things vs a 30 year old. But who knows? One thing for sure these cars won’t be appreciating asset and won’t make you money when our are not using jr mm mmmo

I’m on fsd beta too just like you. Have you noticed that it brakes a bit too late? It’s because it needs higher resolution cameras that can see further

you maybe right. Unrelated to FSD beta as it’s doing it on highway and coming off of a highway where where the car in the from is static and gets dangerously close before it brakes decelerating at a high speed. This was never an issue when they had LiDAR. But they’re very smart people here and not sure how far these cameras can see (200-250 meters).

But let me ask you, do you honestly believe that HW3 will be capable of becoming a robotaxi where the car can participate in ride-sharing Tesla network?

 

[argon2018]

I think the FSD price of increases over the past few years will be a pretty killer argument against Tesla in court if things go down that road. It's hard to reconcile the idea that they intentionally downgraded the definition of the purchased FSD option in 2019, which is effectively admitting that HW3 is a known dead end for achieving those original aims, while they also continually increased the FSD price ever since, saying publicly that this was because they were getting closer to "achieving FSD" or whatever.

In particular removing all those claims makes you wonder

 

[Supcom]

Unfortunately not based on my research. They got rid of LiDAR but now it requires a higher resolution camera,

LiDAR? Maybe you need to do just a little more of whatever you call 'research'.

 

[Goose66]

I think the public perception is that all vehicles would come with the necessary hardware to become robotaxis, but this is an example of what was officially said

Source: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware | Tesla

Again, you seem to think that only text posted on the Tesla website is "official." I assure you that any statement made by Elon Musk regarding features and capabilities of the cars while he was CEO of Tesla is "official" in every legal sense of the word.

 

[AndrewZ]

Again, you seem to think that only text posted on the Tesla website is "official." I assure you that any statement made by Elon Musk regarding features and capabilities of the cars while he was CEO of Tesla is "official" in every legal sense of the word.

I'm not arguing for any of this stuff, I'm just communicating what I think Tesla's argument will be

I think this whole thing is a debacle, to be completely frank

 

[kabin]

It simply means the ON runs at 100fps (being able to spit out a new set of values every 10 ms). Does not necessarily have to be interpolation, if the cameras are not synced (like there is no sync signal to ensure all the cameras are capturing each frame at exactly the same time), then it could possibly be getting new data at more than 33ms rate. Also if other NNs or functions feed the ON, it can also do a update in between frames even if there is no new camera data.

I agree. The FSDb system frame rate and its interior processing frame rate are night and day different with on board accelerators and parallel processing. But input video data is limited to the camera specs and I doubt HW3 cameras are spec'd to 100fps.

I found one reference for FSD HW3 using an Onsemi ARO136AT image sensor - its data sheet says it's rated to 45fps.

Also, HW4 is rumored to be using Sony's IMX490 image sensor with an option of 10bit @40fps or 12bit @30fps.

Maybe these image sensors run for short bursts at higher fps when running in single frame mode? But even then it's not likely sustainable at 100fps real time.

 

[kabin]

It's funny reading notes from the 2019 Tesla Autonomy Day were HW3 had excess resource and the future was bright. It had to be Elon's talking points.

- Autonomous FSD will be feature complete in 2019 and ready for consumers.
- Tesla will roll-out the Tesla Network Robotaxis service in 2020.
- Net present value of a Model 3 could top $100k due to Robotaxi service.

Yea buddy!

 

[FloridaJohn]

It's funny reading notes from the 2019 Tesla Autonomy Day were HW3 had excess resource and the future was bright. It had to be Elon's talking points.

- Autonomous FSD will be feature complete in 2019 and ready for consumers.
- Tesla will roll-out the Tesla Network Robotaxis service in 2020.
- Net present value of a Model 3 could top $100k due to Robotaxi service.

Yea buddy!

And to think, we are only two weeks away from all that happening!