Toyota 'Mirai' Fuel Cell Sedan

[miimura]

I think Toyota will have to delay the introduction of the Mirai into Northern California. I don't remember the original schedule, but I thought NorCal deliveries were supposed to start in the 4th quarter of 2015. Anyway, the basis for my speculation is a revised station deployment schedule at cafcp.org. As I recall, there were supposed to be a half-dozen stations on-line before the end of the year. That is now down to three, two of which are near SJC and SFO, presumably for fleet operators, not for Mirai.

2015-Q4
---------
Hayward
San Jose
South San Francisco


2016-Q1
---------
Campbell
Mill Valley
Rohnert Park
San Ramon
Saratoga
Woodside


2016-Q2
---------
Foster City
Los Altos
Mountain View
Palo Alto
Redwood City


2016-Q3
---------
Oakland

 

[Kandiru]

Toyota Puts Cart Before Horse

Shipment of Mirais have landed in the USA, with a total of 2, yes TWO hydrogen charging stations
able to accomodate them.

Good news is Julie Hemp's arrest will leave some of her colleagues in withdrawal, and once recovered
make some rational decisions for a change.


Toyota Alt Fuel Manager: Hydrogen Infrastructure Lagging, Today

 

[RubberToe]

Toyota alternative-fuel chief Scott said working with batteries for so long has convinced the carmaker that issues of energy density most likely won't be overcome. He said that--for now--there are unassailable limits on how much electricity can be stored in a given volume, and how quickly a battery can charge. "We don't see anything for the next 10 years," he said, noting that anything in the laboratory right now would take at least that long to transition to production.

Denying physical reality sometimes works. Generally only paying off for say the medieval Catholic church (i.e. Galileo) or sometimes modern day politicians, not so much for multi-billion $$$ companies competing in the real world. Especially competing against the likes of a Tesla.

I'm almost starting to come around to the thinking that Toyota has invested so much, that they simply can't stop. And the end game will be them creating such a big disaster with the Mirai, that the "lesson learned" for all automakers and the world in general being that "alternative fuel vehicles" (i.e. fuel cell or battery cars) simply "don't work". But then you have to wonder, could they really believe that they could sell that idea when there are 100,000 Tesla's driving around.

Must contemplate this more over a few beers this weekend

RT

 

[Johan]

Denying physical reality sometimes works. Generally only paying off for say the medieval Catholic church (i.e. Galileo) or sometimes modern day politicians, not so much for multi-billion $$$ companies competing in the real world. Especially competing against the likes of a Tesla.

I'm almost starting to come around to the thinking that Toyota has invested so much, that they simply can't stop. And the end game will be them creating such a big disaster with the Mirai, that the "lesson learned" for all automakers and the world in general being that "alternative fuel vehicles" (i.e. fuel cell or battery cars) simply "don't work". But then you have to wonder, could they really believe that they could sell that idea when there are 100,000 Tesla's driving around.

Must contemplate this more over a few beers this weekend

RT

Cognitive dissonance. The logical truth and its consequences is too hard to take in, so one creates a self illusion including denying physical realities.

 

[Johan]

That's harsh: are you claiming Toyota execs dreamed up the hydrogen craziness while high on oxycodone? But what about the engineers that actually put these things together and worked for years on the fuel cells - what the hell were they taking?

 

[TexasEV]

I think that was someone's attempt at a joke.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Craig Scott’s, (national alternative fuel vehicle manager for Toyota): "There are a handful of [hydrogen] stations that already exist but we don’t consider those to be Mirai-friendly, if you will, they’re really not ready for prime time. Of the 48 [new stations that CA is building] that have been developed, two have been completed so far. Probably another eight or so that are in construction."

I really do feel badly for those Mirai purchasers that got suckered into this CA and Toyota funded lab experiment.

Source: Taking On Tesla: Toyota Discusses Mirai And Hydrogen Fuel Station Hurdles - Forbes

 

[eloder]

Craig Scott’s, (national alternative fuel vehicle manager for Toyota): "There are a handful of [hydrogen] stations that already exist but we don’t consider those to be Mirai-friendly, if you will, they’re really not ready for prime time. Of the 48 [new stations that CA is building] that have been developed, two have been completed so far. Probably another eight or so that are in construction."

I really do feel badly for those Mirai purchasers that got suckered into this CA and Toyota funded lab experiment.

Source: Taking On Tesla: Toyota Discusses Mirai And Hydrogen Fuel Station Hurdles - Forbes

The pro-oil consumers are in for a huge surprise when they realize that a supercharger would have been faster than a Mirai refueling with current infrastructure, and the fact that they still can't charge at home.

Also, a 50k+ car with acceleration almost less than that of my gas smart car!

 

[Off Shore]

That's harsh: are you claiming Toyota execs dreamed up the hydrogen craziness while high on oxycodone? But what about the engineers that actually put these things together and worked for years on the fuel cells - what the hell were they taking?

They were taking their salary, which is a powerful motivator. Better ask who wrote and lobbied for the legislation.

O/T From the photo I assume they're police cars. Between the color scheme and the sheer ugliness they couldn't be anything else.

 

[vinnie97]

Even a better color scheme would provide marginal improvement of looks.

 

[Drucifer]

O/T From the photo I assume they're police cars. Between the color scheme and the sheer ugliness they couldn't be anything else.

I think that is just the paint protection wrap for shipping the cars.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

What's more concerning than a lack of stations, is the actual capacity of the stations. One of the newest stations (Diamond Bar) only has 100kg capacity (and being advertised as "High Capacity")...so that's 20 Mirais a day...assuming they can get a shipment of H2, of course. I guess it's helpful that they're only bringing 200 of them over for all of 2015...but 2 stations per 200 vehicles seems like it could be an issue.

 

[MsElectric]

So the justification for buying this abomination is that it is quick to refuel? Never mind the fact that electricity is everywhere and you can charge right at home.

Anyone buying this hideous mess over a CPO Model S seriously has quite a few brain cells missing...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

So the justification for buying this abomination is that it is quick to refuel? Never mind the fact that electricity is everywhere and you can charge right at home.

Anyone buying this hideous mess over a CPO Model S seriously has quite a few brain cells missing...

I'd think of it as a Chevrolet Volt, but slower, with fewer places to refuel, slightly slower to refuel, and without the convenience of home refueling allowing you to drive a significant percentage of your miles without visiting a public refueling station, and with fewer people liking the look of your car; but at least the public fuel you _do_ use won't stink.

But the good news for Mirai buyers is that 48 hydrogen stations will be built in the next few years, and then there will only be 120,998 to go.

 

[Drucifer]

So the justification for buying this abomination...

Toyota only leases them. Feel free to keep your statement, just get rid of the word buying....because nobody is doing that.

 

[Saghost]

I'd think of it as a Chevrolet Volt, but slower, with fewer places to refuel, slightly slower to refuel, and without the convenience of home refueling allowing you to drive a significant percentage of your miles without visiting a public refueling station, and with fewer people liking the look of your car; but at least the public fuel you _do_ use won't stink.

But the good news for Mirai buyers is that 48 hydrogen stations will be built in the next few years, and then there will only be 120,998 to go.

I don't think this is really a fair comparison, considering that over 70% of Volt miles are driven from electricity rather than gas, the vast majority of it from home charging.

The best parallel would probably be a Toyota Camry hybrid, considering it actually has the guts of the hybrid - just minus the engine, second motor, power split device, and "stinky" exhaust.

Operationally, of course, it's more like an ICE than any PHEV or BEV in that you have to refuel it for all miles at the public station.

 

[jbcarioca]

Toyota only leases them. Feel free to keep your statement, just get rid of the word buying....because nobody is doing that.

Toyota will sell the Mirai, but the rest of the Hydrogen offerings are lease only.
Seems to me that there is a legitimate place for hydrogen in the zero-emissions mix, but probably always fairly specialised. First, garbage recycling already can produce lots of hydrogen as well as electricity etc. That is certainly a growth industry, sad though it is. Second there is realistic promise of other efficient sources for Hydrogen. Third, for vehicle types that have weight sensitivity but not volume sensitivity hydrogen can have quite long ranges. Third, driving these we need not carry water, just collect the exhaust.

Why diss the effort? The world needs more R&D and better ZEV innovation. It's not one size fits all. It's not my claim that this will be successful, but that we should applaud the effort to find alternatives to ICE.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Why diss the effort? The world needs more R&D and better ZEV innovation. It's not one size fits all. It's not my claim that this will be successful, but that we should applaud the effort to find alternatives to ICE.

Because they are far more inefficient than BEVs, the public is funding the project, the costs are astronomical to implement (again and funded by taxpayers), the majority of H2 production will remain fossil fuel dependent for the foreseeable future, funding for H2/FCEVs reduces funding for BEVs, and lastly because Toyota has chosen to embark on a smear campaign against BEVs.

That's why.

 

[Saghost]

Why diss the effort? The world needs more R&D and better ZEV innovation. It's not one size fits all. It's not my claim that this will be successful, but that we should applaud the effort to find alternatives to ICE.

Ever play one of the 4X games - Master of Orion or any of the relatives? You only have limited research and production resources - and in a global sense that's true of us, too. Every dollar spent following a blind alley is a dollar that can't be spent on something more useful.

This isn't to say that we shouldn't be researching fuel cells - you never know where the next breakthrough will come from. But forcing fuel cell cars into production when the economics and engineering doesn't make sense costs us all.

The State of California will be spending more building hydrogen stations this year than Tesla has spent building the entire supercharger network worldwide based on the cost estimates I've seen. The utility of the SpC network is clearly far greater - and it has no public safety risks, which cannot be said for the hydrogen stations. Worse, the California hydrogen stations are being built with public funds - tax dollars.

People who are in charge of spending everyone else's money have a special responsibility to see that it is used sensibly (not to say they are consistently good at this historically...)

The money that Toyota and Hyundai have poured into fuel cell research and manufacturing could have bought them a long range EV program that challenges the Model S, or a serious PHEV/EREV program. Either one of those would have produced less pollution and better cars.
Walter

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I don't think this is really a fair comparison, considering that over 70% of Volt miles are driven from electricity rather than gas, the vast majority of it from home charging.

The best parallel would probably be a Toyota Camry hybrid, considering it actually has the guts of the hybrid - just minus the engine, second motor, power split device, and "stinky" exhaust.

Operationally, of course, it's more like an ICE than any PHEV or BEV in that you have to refuel it for all miles at the public station.

I use the Volt, because Volt drivers get all electric driving experience.