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Toyota 'Mirai' Fuel Cell Sedan
- Thread starter ivog
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Came across this interesting tidbit in Green Car Reports:
Toyota: Negative On Batteries Because It Has More Experience Than Any Other Maker
It does provide some insight into why Toyota may be sticking with fuel cells versus batteries. Here are some of the key points, quoted directly:
Toyota alternative-fuel chief Scott said working with batteries for so long has convinced the carmaker that issues of energy density most likely won't be overcome. He said that--for now--there are unassailable limits on how much electricity can be stored in a given volume, and how quickly a battery can charge. "We don't see anything for the next 10 years," he said, noting that anything in the laboratory right now would take at least that long to transition to production.
Apparently the Toyota engineers are forbidden from doing web searches on Tesla battery performance. They don't see anything for the next 10 years? What about a P90D that can go 300 miles today?
While it reportedly believes batteries are adequate for short-range urban driving, Toyota does not think simply building larger battery packs--a la Tesla Motors--is a viable solution for mainstream models. Scott did not directly address the challenges of planning, building, and paying for a pervasive hydrogen fueling infrastructure in the Forbes interview.
I wonder why he doesn't believe that bigger battery packs are viable for mainstream? Apparently Tesla thinks so, hence the Gigafactory.
And finally the absolute icing on the 10 foot delusional cake: "Scott did not directly address the challenges of planning, building, and paying for a pervasive hydrogen fueling infrastructure"
Thats kind of like saying, "Yeah, we don't think it's possible to build a battery slightly better and a bit more cost effective than the one Tesla has been building for 3 years now, but our fuel cell cars will rule the world once the Tooth Fairy sprinkles about $2,000,000,000,000 worth of hydrogen fueling infrastructure across the planet".
RT
P.S. A few months back I was discussing Tesla and Toyota with a group of primarily Japanese American guys at my local restaurant. They were very engineering knowledgeable, and we had previously discussed Tesla. After we discussed the Toyota fuel cell push, and how foolish I thought it was given everything Tesla has done with batteries, they pointed out that you should never underestimate the Japanese Engineers ability and inclination to drink the group think kool aid. Their next comment was that a company like Tesla could never have been thought up over there.
Toyota: Negative On Batteries Because It Has More Experience Than Any Other Maker
It does provide some insight into why Toyota may be sticking with fuel cells versus batteries. Here are some of the key points, quoted directly:
Toyota alternative-fuel chief Scott said working with batteries for so long has convinced the carmaker that issues of energy density most likely won't be overcome. He said that--for now--there are unassailable limits on how much electricity can be stored in a given volume, and how quickly a battery can charge. "We don't see anything for the next 10 years," he said, noting that anything in the laboratory right now would take at least that long to transition to production.
Apparently the Toyota engineers are forbidden from doing web searches on Tesla battery performance. They don't see anything for the next 10 years? What about a P90D that can go 300 miles today?
While it reportedly believes batteries are adequate for short-range urban driving, Toyota does not think simply building larger battery packs--a la Tesla Motors--is a viable solution for mainstream models. Scott did not directly address the challenges of planning, building, and paying for a pervasive hydrogen fueling infrastructure in the Forbes interview.
I wonder why he doesn't believe that bigger battery packs are viable for mainstream? Apparently Tesla thinks so, hence the Gigafactory.
And finally the absolute icing on the 10 foot delusional cake: "Scott did not directly address the challenges of planning, building, and paying for a pervasive hydrogen fueling infrastructure"
Thats kind of like saying, "Yeah, we don't think it's possible to build a battery slightly better and a bit more cost effective than the one Tesla has been building for 3 years now, but our fuel cell cars will rule the world once the Tooth Fairy sprinkles about $2,000,000,000,000 worth of hydrogen fueling infrastructure across the planet".
RT
P.S. A few months back I was discussing Tesla and Toyota with a group of primarily Japanese American guys at my local restaurant. They were very engineering knowledgeable, and we had previously discussed Tesla. After we discussed the Toyota fuel cell push, and how foolish I thought it was given everything Tesla has done with batteries, they pointed out that you should never underestimate the Japanese Engineers ability and inclination to drink the group think kool aid. Their next comment was that a company like Tesla could never have been thought up over there.
ChadS
Last tank of gas: March 2009
Because they will get 3 times as many CARB credits for a hydrogen car.
The Mirai is not about changing the automotive market; Toyota has been very clear that these will be produced in tiny volumes. It's just about the credits. They have a lead in HEVs and H2 vehicles, and PEVs are cannibalizing their favored markets, so they are fighting back. They know few people will actually read lifecycle studies, but many will be dazzled by "it emits only water!". Gaining mindshare for H2 helps build their brand. And their real customers, their dealers, will not have to spend as long explaining the technology or worry that there may be less maintenance income. Nor will Toyota have to convince the dealers to sell as many. This is a reasonable approach for a company that does not want the market to change.
The Mirai is not about changing the automotive market; Toyota has been very clear that these will be produced in tiny volumes. It's just about the credits. They have a lead in HEVs and H2 vehicles, and PEVs are cannibalizing their favored markets, so they are fighting back. They know few people will actually read lifecycle studies, but many will be dazzled by "it emits only water!". Gaining mindshare for H2 helps build their brand. And their real customers, their dealers, will not have to spend as long explaining the technology or worry that there may be less maintenance income. Nor will Toyota have to convince the dealers to sell as many. This is a reasonable approach for a company that does not want the market to change.
Ubbe
Member
But can those CARB credits be worth that much? Developing the complicated fueling system and drivetrain must have cost billions? Wouldn't it just be cheaper to buy the credits straight up?
In contrast with BEVs: "It emits only... nothing!", but I'm guessing like you that a big, huffing and puffing complicated machine emitting something benign like water gives a better image than not bothering with emissions at all and just zipping along
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
You have to remember they invested the billions into hydrogen development already because of the Bush era push for hydrogen (like pretty much all major automakers did back then, including GM, Honda, Nissan, Daimler). That's a sunk cost that they can recover with some CARB credits. Plus the Japanese government is giving huge subsidies for hydrogen and intends to push it in a big way for the Olympics. This is a great opportunity for Toyota to cash in and get from PR out of the billions they spent. Otherwise that money would have been spent for nothing.But can those CARB credits be worth that much? Developing the complicated fueling system and drivetrain must have cost billions? Wouldn't it just be cheaper to buy the credits straight up?
In contrast with BEVs: "It emits only... nothing!", but I'm guessing like you that a big, huffing and puffing complicated machine emitting something benign like water gives a better image than not bothering with emissions at all and just zipping along
Ubbe
Member
I'm leaning towards that explanation too, because if they looked at the situation soberly they would not spend one single cent more on this overcomplicated mess.
Or the project might just be "Too Big to Fail Syndrome", and no one wants to be the one to pull the plug on it and admit it was a mistake in front of all share holders, the public and government (also not interested of taking any of the blame).
Precisely. They have a belief and no amount of logic or reality will change that.
Last year I was at a local engineering event on sustainable energy. They asked me to give a brief presentation on my car and show it off outside. Right after my talk where among other things I told them about a longish road trip I had just done with my Tesla, a Toyota marketing VP gave his talk. He immediately (2nd slide) dismissed EVs as very short range commuter cars. Really??? I had just demonstrated the exact opposite! He extolled the virtues of hybrid cars, and even dismissed the plug-in Prius "I don't know why we did that. It just confuses the market. With a normal hybrid you don't have to plug it in!" After extolling their vision of a hybrid future, he rolled out hydrogen as the next generation. Gah.
The car is aptly named, "Mirage".
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Another issue Toyota will have to address is the practicality of the refueling stations themselves, as it seems they are having some teething problems in CA, currently:
CA Fuel-Cell Car Drivers Says Hydrogen Fuel Unavailable, Stations Don't Work
Two highlights:
Berkman told Green Car Reports that the closest station, five minutes away at a Shell site in Newport Beach, has been "struggling"--and that at best it can only fill his Tucson Fuel Cell to half capacity.
And a model "tri-cycle" station in Fountain Valley, about 15 minutes from his home--which used methane from buried trash as a feedstock, lowering its carbon footprint--has now been shuttered for almost five months, he said.
CA Fuel-Cell Car Drivers Says Hydrogen Fuel Unavailable, Stations Don't Work
Two highlights:
Berkman told Green Car Reports that the closest station, five minutes away at a Shell site in Newport Beach, has been "struggling"--and that at best it can only fill his Tucson Fuel Cell to half capacity.
And a model "tri-cycle" station in Fountain Valley, about 15 minutes from his home--which used methane from buried trash as a feedstock, lowering its carbon footprint--has now been shuttered for almost five months, he said.
"But neither Hyundai nor Toyota, which is in the process of launching its hydrogen-powered 2016 Mirai, is responsible for providing the fuel or ensuring a functioning infrastructure. Instead, that task falls to a variety of organizations that own or operate the stations. Contacted by Green Car Reports, Hyundai spokesman Derek Joyce deferred questions on fueling infrastructure for hydrogen vehicles to a representative from the California Governor's office."
Let me get this straight, 1) Toyota builds a car requiring a special fueling infrastructure and fuel, 2) The fueling station is built by a different company, 3) The operation and maintenance of the fueling stations is not under the direct control of Hyundai or Toyota, 4) the fuel itself is also provided by another "supplier", 5) The State of California is also somehow involved, since Hyundai won't even discuss the matter, referring inquiries to the Governors office.
What could possibly go wrong with this approach?
How incredibly stupid of Tesla to build their own network of Superchargers, having complete control of the entire process, when the Toyota/Hyundai/Rube Goldberg approach described above is clearly the wave of the future...
RT
(Mod note: Sarcasm alert above for those who are sarcastically impaired.)
Let me get this straight, 1) Toyota builds a car requiring a special fueling infrastructure and fuel, 2) The fueling station is built by a different company, 3) The operation and maintenance of the fueling stations is not under the direct control of Hyundai or Toyota, 4) the fuel itself is also provided by another "supplier", 5) The State of California is also somehow involved, since Hyundai won't even discuss the matter, referring inquiries to the Governors office.
What could possibly go wrong with this approach?
How incredibly stupid of Tesla to build their own network of Superchargers, having complete control of the entire process, when the Toyota/Hyundai/Rube Goldberg approach described above is clearly the wave of the future...
RT
(Mod note: Sarcasm alert above for those who are sarcastically impaired.)
Last edited by a moderator:
wraithnot
Model 3 VIN #2942 Model S VIN #5785
Wow- you and RubberToe both beat me to posting this by a wide margin. Anyway, I found this quote to be the most informative:
"Early lessee Paul Berkman of Corona del Mar, for one, is frustrated. He's paying $500 a month for a vehicle he hasn't been able to drive for five weeks, because all three hydrogen stations within 20 minutes of his home or workplace have been down for more than a month."
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Wait, he didn't get the memo? These futuristic cars are currently only made to be secondary cars. If you want reliability you have to own an ICE or gasoline PHEV as your primary car.
When can you have a non-gasoline powered car as your primary or only car? Maybe in 20 years time..? Or if you ask the Toyota engineers about BEVs: never.
If only they made electric cars he could charge at his home. He could have leased a CPO Model S for the same he's wasting away on that Mirai (Earth Motorcars does leases on CPO Teslas).
Sometimes I think there is government pressure to make fuel cells work because of the desire to commercialize technology developed for the space program(s).
NASA has spent huge sums on fuel cells that they needed for space vehicles, and there is always pressure to show that space research will provide ground based benefits.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/glenn/technology/fuel_cells.html
It makes more sense when you consider that many space vehicles are already carrying liquid oxygen and hydrogen for other purposes.
NASA has spent huge sums on fuel cells that they needed for space vehicles, and there is always pressure to show that space research will provide ground based benefits.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/glenn/technology/fuel_cells.html
It makes more sense when you consider that many space vehicles are already carrying liquid oxygen and hydrogen for other purposes.
Jaff
Active Member
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
He'll be along when he's finished his shift repairing Prius-s. I am surprised Roger Pham has been quiet so far.
Jaff
Active Member
They're probably havin' lunch together...maybe they're the same dood...(me, myself & Irene) :biggrin:
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