Toyota 'Mirai' Fuel Cell Sedan

[Cosmacelf]

Because they are far more inefficient than BEVs, the public is funding the project, the costs are astronomical to implement (again and funded by taxpayers), the majority of H2 production will remain fossil fuel dependent for the foreseeable future, funding for H2/FCEVs reduces funding for BEVs, and lastly because Toyota has chosen to embark on a smear campaign against BEVs.

That's why.

+1 and maybe worst of all, the people who actually lease such a car will end up with a $500/month brick on their hands.

 

[nwdiver]

Why diss the effort? The world needs more R&D and better ZEV innovation. It's not one size fits all. It's not my claim that this will be successful, but that we should applaud the effort to find alternatives to ICE.

Because with fuel cells... success is not one of the possible outcomes. It's physics. Toyota is either insane or this is FUD.

 

[mibaro2]

"But neither Hyundai nor Toyota, which is in the process of launching its hydrogen-powered 2016 Mirai, is responsible for providing the fuel or ensuring a functioning infrastructure. Instead, that task falls to a variety of organizations that own or operate the stations. Contacted by Green Car Reports, Hyundai spokesman Derek Joyce deferred questions on fueling infrastructure for hydrogen vehicles to a representative from the California Governor's office."

Let me get this straight, 1) Toyota builds a car requiring a special fueling infrastructure and fuel, 2) The fueling station is built by a different company, 3) The operation and maintenance of the fueling stations is not under the direct control of Hyundai or Toyota, 4) the fuel itself is also provided by another "supplier", 5) The State of California is also somehow involved, since Hyundai won't even discuss the matter, referring inquiries to the Governors office.

What could possibly go wrong with this approach?

How incredibly stupid of Tesla to build their own network of Superchargers, having complete control of the entire process, when the Toyota/Hyundai/Rube Goldberg approach described above is clearly the wave of the future...

RT

(Mod note: Sarcasm alert above for those who are sarcastically impaired.)

LOL
Sarcasm aside, your 5 points got me thinking... that they are valid for the ICE vehicle infrastructure also. (gas stations are not owned by the car company. The fuel comes from another supplier, etc. ). So it appears Toyota figured that if that model works for gas cars, it should work for hydrogen.
Hey, it's the wave of the past!

 

[bonnie]

Just out of curiosity, I looked around (aka, googled) to see if I could find anyone actually trying to get a Mirai. All I could find was first an announcement by Toyota when they opened for orders & then, about a week later, a statement saying they had 600 requests. But not one person on twitter, for instance, saying 'fingers crossed, hope I get one!'.

Has anyone heard of actual consumers for this product, outside of fleet sales?

 

[MsElectric]

Just out of curiosity, I looked around (aka, googled) to see if I could find anyone actually trying to get a Mirai. All I could find was first an announcement by Toyota when they opened for orders & then, about a week later, a statement saying they had 600 requests. But not one person on twitter, for instance, saying 'fingers crossed, hope I get one!'.

Has anyone heard of actual consumers for this product, outside of fleet sales?

Good question. I think Toyota is still in search of humans lacking brain cells to lease the hideous mess they have created. I found 2 forums for the Mirai and pretty much all I found are crickets, it seems there is not one person looking to get one of these. I

t's a car only it's mother, Toyota, can get excited about. Have you all seen the interior of that car? I'm not sure who's going to spend $500+ a month to lease this car so they have the pleasure of waking up in the morning to drive one of the slowest and least inspiring cars to drive with the added pleasure of having to hunt down a hydrogen fuel station about once a week.

http://www.mytoyotamirai.com/forum/

http://toyotamirai.info/

 

[woof]

Because with fuel cells... success is not one of the possible outcomes. It's physics. Toyota is either insane or this is FUD.

I don't think success isn't possible. With some breakthroughs in artificial photosynthesis and/or microbial engineering for examples, generation of H2, possibly even local generation, becomes less energy intensive and possibly even carbon neutral. Heavy industry and long haul trucking could take advantage of methane or H2 fuel cells. I don't think the tech is insane and/or FUD. (Note that doesn't mean that Toyota isn't insane with Mirai today, and they are obviously spewing FUD.)

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Just out of curiosity, I looked around (aka, googled) to see if I could find anyone actually trying to get a Mirai. All I could find was first an announcement by Toyota when they opened for orders & then, about a week later, a statement saying they had 600 requests. But not one person on twitter, for instance, saying 'fingers crossed, hope I get one!'.

Has anyone heard of actual consumers for this product, outside of fleet sales?

Good question. I think Toyota is still in search of humans lacking brain cells to lease the hideous mess they have created. I found 2 forums for the Mirai and pretty much all I found are crickets, it seems there is not one person looking to get one of these.

I have a theory about the lack of interest. There are a small number people out there who want an FCEV, but they won't be buying a Mirai. They are waiting for this: http://automobiles.honda.com/honda-fcv/ (mid-2016 launch in Japan and U.S.).

The Mirai looks terrible inside and out, and the driving experience is pretty awful too, from what I've seen in automotive press reviews.

Honda's FCV actually looks good and has a cohesive interior, which is no surprise, given that there is lengthy heritage in the brand from the FCX and then the FCX Clarity models of FCEV. By almost all accounts, the FCX Clarity handled quite well and had equivalent performance to a 4-cylinder Honda Accord. If I had 50k+ that I could only throw away on an FCEV, Honda would win my business. The Mirai is so awful that it would stand no chance of winning a place in my garage.

 

[Kandiru]

That's harsh: are you claiming Toyota execs dreamed up the hydrogen craziness while high on oxycodone? But what about the engineers that actually put these things together and worked for years on the fuel cells - what the hell were they taking?

From the news:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/19/us-toyota-executive-arrest-idUSKBN0OY14S20150619

Japanese media reports, citing police investigators, said 57 addictive Oxycodone pills were found in a small parcel labeled "necklaces" that was sent from the United States and addressed to Hamp in Japan. The pills were in packets or buried at the bottom of the parcel, which also contained toy pendants and necklaces, they said.

On the other hand I agree with that this is a gross overgeneralization, but you should have seen my family after we sold our brand new highest trim Sienna after 6 terrible months, coming from Honda. Oh the misery, millimetric carpets, cheap plastics, failing batteries and keyfobs, our first and last Toyota.

 

[Johan]

Good question. I think Toyota is still in search of humans lacking brain cells to lease the hideous mess they have created. I found 2 forums for the Mirai and pretty much all I found are crickets, it seems there is not one person looking to get one of these. I

t's a car only it's mother, Toyota, can get excited about. Have you all seen the interior of that car? I'm not sure who's going to spend $500+ a month to lease this car so they have the pleasure of waking up in the morning to drive one of the slowest and least inspiring cars to drive with the added pleasure of having to hunt down a hydrogen fuel station about once a week.

http://www.mytoyotamirai.com/forum/

http://toyotamirai.info/

I contacted Tesla Norway to see if I could lease one. I just want it so I can do thorugh testing and (assuming no NDA) write a blog about it. They have no date for Norway release though (if ever).

 

[MsElectric]

I contacted Tesla Norway to see if I could lease one. I just want it so I can do thorugh testing and (assuming no NDA) write a blog about it. They have no date for Norway release though (if ever).

Did you mean Toyota Norway? It would be news to Elon if Tesla had a Fuel Cell vehicle for sale

 

[Johan]

Did you mean Toyota Norway? It would be news to Elon if Tesla had a Fuel Cell vehicle for sale

Yup

My bad.

 

[kaneda]

I had a quick look at the car reviews from end last year and I'm surprise by the weight of the Mirain at 4k pounds. which is close to the TMS while being much smaller.Is the H techno so complex that you need to add all that weight ?

 

[JohnSnowNW]

I had a quick look at the car reviews from end last year and I'm surprise by the weight of the Mirain at 4k pounds. which is close to the TMS while being much smaller.Is the H techno so complex that you need to add all that weight ?

Fuel cells are pretty beefy, so are the H2 tanks, then you add the NiMH batteries, air compressor, CVT transmission, etc...

If you look at the Hyundai Tucson vs Tucson FCEV, the FCEV is just over 900lbs heavier.

 

[miimura]

Because with fuel cells... success is not one of the possible outcomes. It's physics. Toyota is either insane or this is FUD.

I don't think Toyota is insane. I think they have calculated that the costs of ZEV compliance for this path will not be more than they have endured working with Tesla on the RAV4 EV. They produced ~2,600 RAV4 EVs and are still racking up warranty costs on it. They will receive 3X more credits per vehicle for the Mirai. So, they will have to deliver less than 900 vehicles to earn the same number of credits. However, I think their plan will fall apart when the ZEV ramp starts to get steep in 2018. By steep, I mean that they will have to have 2% of sales in 2018 and it increases 2% every year after that - reaching 10% in 2022 and 16% in 2025. The RAV4 EV bought them the required 0.79% for 2012-2015.

 

[MsElectric]

I don't think Toyota is insane. I think they have calculated that the costs of ZEV compliance for this path will not be more than they have endured working with Tesla on the RAV4 EV. They produced ~2,600 RAV4 EVs and are still racking up warranty costs on it. They will receive 3X more credits per vehicle for the Mirai. So, they will have to deliver less than 900 vehicles to earn the same number of credits. However, I think their plan will fall apart when the ZEV ramp starts to get steep in 2018. By steep, I mean that they will have to have 2% of sales in 2018 and it increases 2% every year after that - reaching 10% in 2022 and 16% in 2025. The RAV4 EV bought them the required 0.79% for 2012-2015.

So it is basically:

+ A ploy to keep building gasoline powered cars
+ An unpractical technology that they can deploy that would not affect their gasoline powered cars
+ Basically they want to keep building gasoline powered cars and don't want to offer any other viable alternatives
+ Have you seen the interior of the Mirai? It's like they purposefully built the most hideous interior possible to sell as few of the Mirai as possible
+ Toyota is basically the new GM They will learn their lesson soon enough...

 

[miimura]

So it is basically:

+ A ploy to keep building gasoline powered cars
+ An unpractical technology that they can deploy that would not affect their gasoline powered cars
+ Basically they want to keep building gasoline powered cars and don't want to offer any other viable alternatives
+ Have you seen the interior of the Mirai? It's like they purposefully built the most hideous interior possible to sell as few of the Mirai as possible
+ Toyota is basically the new GM They will learn their lesson soon enough...

Basically, yes. However, some people say that they Toyota is probably secretly developing BEV technology and know-how just to cover their butts in case the government support for hydrogen disappears or falls apart and the ZEV mandates don't.

 

[tonybelding]

So it is basically:

+ A ploy to keep building gasoline powered cars
+ An unpractical technology that they can deploy that would not affect their gasoline powered cars
+ Basically they want to keep building gasoline powered cars and don't want to offer any other viable alternatives

I don't believe it. I think Toyota deeply and sincerely believe that hydrogen cars are the path to victory. They're convinced that hydrogen cars are BETTER than electric cars. Their definition of "better" is, just like the Prius, a car that operates in a completely familiar manner and requires no change of habits whatsoever from the owner. A car that can go 300+ miles between fills, can fill at a station in five minutes, and doesn't have to be plugged in is a BETTER car, because that's what Joe Average has grown up with, is familiar with, and he's not looking for change. Toyota aren't looking for change either. It's hard to be a revolutionary when you're already at the top of the pyramid.

 

[Matias]

Basically, yes. However, some people say that they Toyota is probably secretly developing BEV technology and know-how just to cover their butts in case the government support for hydrogen disappears or falls apart and the ZEV mandates don't.

Of course they are. I bet every car manufacturer has some BEV developement. Just in case.

 

[Saghost]

Basically, yes. However, some people say that they Toyota is probably secretly developing BEV technology and know-how just to cover their butts in case the government support for hydrogen disappears or falls apart and the ZEV mandates don't.

When it comes to this, the thing is - most of the technologies are common between FCEVs and BEVs.

The only unique technologies for a BEV are the ones related to a battery pack and BMS/TMS/pack management - and even there, some are applicable to the FCEV because fuel cells don't throttle quickly and so all FCEVs I know of have small battery packs to handle sharp acceleration/regeneration - the Mirai apparently gets this and the drive motor from the larger HSD implementation (Camry/Avalon Hybrid.)

The only unique technologies for a FCEV are the fuel cells and the hydrogen storage - they share everything else. Thus, development work made to improve either car has a good chance of improving the other (more for BEV applying to FCEV, most likely.)

If cheap sustainable methane sources start showing up, I could even see the FCEREV (fuel cell range extender) becoming an actual practical option. (Big if, but not implausible - and nothing like the Mirai is today.)

 

[ecarfan]

I think Toyota deeply and sincerely believe that hydrogen cars are the path to victory. They're convinced that hydrogen cars are BETTER than electric cars. Their definition of "better" is, just like the Prius, a car that operates in a completely familiar manner and requires no change of habits whatsoever from the owner. A car that can go 300+ miles between fills, can fill at a station in five minutes, and doesn't have to be plugged in is a BETTER car, because that's what Joe Average has grown up with, is familiar with, and he's not looking for change. Toyota aren't looking for change either. It's hard to be a revolutionary when you're already at the top of the pyramid.

Tony what you say makes a lot of sense to me. If the top people who run Toyota became convinced a decade or more ago that FCVs are the future, and have been pouring money into their R&D ever since, they have developed an unshakeable mindset that real world events (like the success of Tesla) will not alter.
Many people would rather persist in delusional beliefs than alter their view because it's more comfortable for them. It's much harder to go back and reason from first principles and regularly confront your preconceptions (as Elon advocates) then it is to stay on the same path.
So Toyota has been telling the world for years that FCVs are the future of personal transportation, and they will continue to do so for some time to come. I think in less than four years it will become obvious to almost everyone in the car industry that Toyota is wrong and EVs are the future. But we're not there yet.