Toyota 'Mirai' Fuel Cell Sedan

[RobStark]

Electricity is 20% of the cost of equivalent gasoline? To whom? Not me. Let's assume there's 34,020Wh of energy in a gallon of gasoline (per Wikipedia). I pay $0.12 per kWh in Austin... so 34 of those would be $4.08. As we all know the price of regular gasoline is just over $2. A car of the Tesla Model S caliber would almost certainly be using premium gas, but that is still on sale in Austin for as low as $2.69 (and as high as $3.49, yoikes who are they kidding?) $4.08 is a lot more than $2.69, never mind "20% less expensive." Perhaps Evannex are referring to Superchargers.

Per mile not per btu/watt.

For 34,020 Wh you get 89-95 miles. AWD D version Monroney sticker not out yet.

2014 Audi A8 V8 21 MPG combined. 2014 MB S-550 20 MPG combined.

Since Model S is 90% efficient vs ICEv ~25% efficient.

Bottom line is how much something cost to drive. Not price per btu/watt purchased.


To "fill up" your Model S 85 would cost $10.20.

And get you 265 EPA miles.


In the S-550 you would need 13.25 gallons of premium at ~$3.03 or $40.15 to travel 265 EPA miles.


$10.20 /$40.15 = 25.4%. After the fall in Gas prices recently.


As always YMMV depending if you drive like granny or a bank robber.

 

[MartinAustin]

Per mile not per btu/watt.

A-ha I see what you mean! Or what they mean.

 

[Doug_G]

Electricity is 20% of the cost of equivalent gasoline? To whom? Not me.

Electricity is roughly the same cost on an energy basis as gasoline. The difference is that an EV is 90% efficient whereas a gasoline car is 20% efficient.

- - - Updated - - -

Design News - Automotive News - Toyota Preps for Launch of Hydrogen-Powered Sedan

“They’re not expecting it to be an overnight sales success, but eventually the cost will come down, the technology will improve, and the popularity will climb.”

Analysts added that fuel cell vehicles are also a generation or more behind battery-electric cars in terms of production maturity. “Manufacturers of battery-electric cars have a lot of mass production experience behind them,” Laslau told us. “They’ve deployed cars and learned hard lessons in terms of battery durability and infrastructure.”

Still, experts contend that hydrogen-powered vehicles may have a distinct niche in the long run. Fuel cells, they say, already offer longer driving ranges and faster refueling times than BEVs. “The benefit of hydrogen is that it doesn’t require a fundamental change from the consumer adopter point of view,” Koslowski told us. “There’s less of a burden in terms consumer accceptance, as long as the infrastructure problem gets solved.”

The last paragraph is where the analysts really get it wrong. By the time HEV vehicles make it to the mainstream (and I doubt they ever will for personal automobiles), people will already have made the transition to EVs and will have discovered the incredible convenience of "fueling" at home.

 

[dhanson865]

The last paragraph is where the analysts really get it wrong. By the time HEV vehicles make it to the mainstream (and I doubt they ever will for personal automobiles), people will already have made the transition to EVs and will have discovered the incredible convenience of "fueling" at home.

Seriously, If I have to choose between a 200 mile range charing at home only or a Hydrogen Fuel Cell I want to only have to refuel away from home once a month or less.

I get 500 miles a tank in my Prius, I'd give that up immediately for a Leaf let alone any BEV nicer than a Leaf because then I never have to go to a fuel station again. Just home/work/home/work/home/ad infinitum.

I'd want more like 750 to 1000 miles a tank to switch to hydrogen and have to deal with harder to find fuel stops and that is assuming they get the cost per mile down to or below BEV territory (think less than 3 cents per mile)

Tesla has free per use Superchargers ($2000 rolled into price of purchase but no per use charge, no monthly fees). What are the odds I'll be a on a road trip and find a Toyota Fuel Cell station with free hydrogen? Will they give me unlimited fuel for the life of the vehicle for $2000?

 

[MartinAustin]

Fuel Cells A Long Way From Mainstream, Despite Toyota Launch - Forbes

 

[Jaff]

Oh-oh...anybody got Akio Toyoda's email addy? ....:wink:

Fuel Cells A Long Way From Mainstream, Despite Toyota Launch - Forbes

 

[dhanson865]

Fuel Cells A Long Way From Mainstream, Despite Toyota Launch - Forbes

ICE dominant for 50 years? Dream on. I expect BEV dominant before then.

 

[Doug_G]

ICE dominant for 50 years? Dream on. I expect BEV dominant before then.

Clearly. Head deep in the sand there.

 

[ecarfan]

Fuel Cells A Long Way From Mainstream, Despite Toyota Launch - Forbes

Even the analysts who understand that FCVs are deeply flawed still think the "refueling time" is an issue. From the Evercore ISI report: "“Following our detailed dive into FCEV technology, our overriding conclusion is that with the exception of re-fuelling time FCEVs hold no clear advantages. "

Wrong. But apparently you have to live with an EV for awhile to understand that 95% or more of the time it takes just seconds to refuel/charge an EV every night, it's just the time it takes to plug it in.

 

[CliffG]

ICE dominant for 50 years? Dream on. I expect BEV dominant before then.

I don't understand why the article quoted Mr. Wheaton from Cornell about this topic - he's a Labor Relations specialist ("Workplace and Industry Education Specialist"), and according to his vita has no expertise whatsever in any related field. Very Curious.

 

[Takumi]

Toyota follows Tesla, makes hydrogen patents open source

 

[yobigd20]

Toyota follows Tesla, makes hydrogen patents open source

yeah I saw that today too: Toyota shares its fuel cell patents to help its hydrogen dreams come true

 

[Johan]

Wow. They're basically trying to copy cat Tesla's whole play book. If you weren't sure before that hydrogen cars are just a big conversion game from big ICE players, well you must be now. Toyota would not open up their patents IN A MILLION YEARS if they thought there was any money to be from them in the future.

So now we know: Toyota never plan to ever make money on hydrogen cars in the future. Everything else is just acting.

 

[wraithnot]

Wow. They're basically trying to copy cat Tesla's whole play book. If you weren't sure before that hydrogen cars are just a big conversion game from big ICE players, well you must be now. Toyota would not open up their patents IN A MILLION YEARS if they thought there was any money to be from them in the future.

So now we know: Toyota never plan to ever make money on hydrogen cars in the future. Everything else is just acting.

This seems more like a PR move than an actual attempt to give away useful patents based on this detail: "Patents related to fuel cell vehicles will be available for royalty-free licenses until the end of 2020."

I'm doubtful that anyone will ever make a profit on fuel cell cars- but if it does happen I bet it won't happen until after 2020. So making the patents free until 2020 seems like an empty gesture.

 

[Saghost]

This seems more like a PR move than an actual attempt to give away useful patents based on this detail: "Patents related to fuel cell vehicles will be available for royalty-free licenses until the end of 2020."

I'm doubtful that anyone will ever make a profit on fuel cell cars- but if it does happen I bet it won't happen until after 2020. So making the patents free until 2020 seems like an empty gesture.

I saw that - so it's like patent-bombing but with the full knowledge of the intended victim. I'm thinking they must just be looking for the positive PR...
Walter

 

[Johan]

This seems more like a PR move than an actual attempt to give away useful patents based on this detail: "Patents related to fuel cell vehicles will be available for royalty-free licenses until the end of 2020."

I'm doubtful that anyone will ever make a profit on fuel cell cars- but if it does happen I bet it won't happen until after 2020. So making the patents free until 2020 seems like an empty gesture.

Yes of course it's a PR move. And forget the 2020 thing: if they truly thought there was anything with value in their hydrogen technology they'd guard it closely in 2015 even if they didn't expect to make money off it until many years later.

 

[bluenation]

i personally cant wait for this joke of a car to come out.

i love to laugh at failures from big companies

too bad i still love toyota, tho

 

[yobigd20]

i personally cant wait for this joke of a car to come out.

i love to laugh at failures from big companies

too bad i still love toyota, tho

On a more serious note it just begs the question of what is wrong with the management at Toyota. It really is obvious that fuel cells will never be practical nor even in the same ballpark of efficiency as a pure BEV. I think they have spent so many billions of dollars they are so far invested they just don't want to admit failure. It's got to be some sort of righteous personality disorder. The charging infrastructure is just too complex and expensive and obviously non-existent. Right now it's not even useful (30 min wait between refills for infrastructure to cool down). While that can be improved everything else can't. It costs $50 in materials for a 40-80amp 240V install. It costs less than a few hundred grand for superchargers. That's 10-20x cheaper than liquid hydrogen. You can't even refill at home like you can with a BEV. Seriously what is Toyota thinking??? They just need to admit defeat that they went down the wrong path and switch gears to BEV like BMW and Volkswagon and Chevy are doing. If they don't, they will bankrupt themselves on this as by the time they come around nobody will be buying a single Toyota anymore when 300-400 mile range BEVs are down to $20-$30k. Somebody needs to give Toyota a serious smack down wake up call. They seem to be living in their little bubble world ignorant of reality.

 

[Johan]

On a more serious note it just begs the question of what is wrong with the management at Toyota. It really is obvious that fuel cells will never be practical nor even in the same ballpark of efficiency as a pure BEV. I think they have spent so many billions of dollars they are so far invested they just don't want to admit failure. It's got to be some sort of righteous personality disorder. The charging infrastructure is just too complex and expensive and obviously non-existent. Right now it's not even useful (30 min wait between refills for infrastructure to cool down). While that can be improved everything else can't. It costs $50 in materials for a 40-80amp 240V install. It costs less than a few hundred grand for superchargers. That's 10-20x cheaper than liquid hydrogen. You can't even refill at home like you can with a BEV. Seriously what is Toyota thinking??? They just need to admit defeat that they went down the wrong path and switch gears to BEV like BMW and Volkswagon and Chevy are doing. If they don't, they will bankrupt themselves on this as by the time they come around nobody will be buying a single Toyota anymore when 300-400 mile range BEVs are down to $20-$30k. Somebody needs to give Toyota a serious smack down wake up call. They seem to be living in their little bubble world ignorant of reality.

I'm sorry as what I'm about to say may seem racist or insensitive, but hear med out: Toyta's business culture is deeply rooted in the Japanese way of thinking and in my experience the Japanese, while being in one way very agile and good at adapting and changing, can also be extremely stubborn and it can be nearly impossible for them to admit having taken a wrong turn a couple of years back. Also, as have been discussed before on this subject, the people now in charge have say 10 years left before their pension and will likely have a more short-term view. Why risk tomorrow's profits for what's good for the company in 20 years?

 

[Saghost]

On a more serious note it just begs the question of what is wrong with the management at Toyota. It really is obvious that fuel cells will never be practical nor even in the same ballpark of efficiency as a pure BEV. I think they have spent so many billions of dollars they are so far invested they just don't want to admit failure. It's got to be some sort of righteous personality disorder. The charging infrastructure is just too complex and expensive and obviously non-existent. Right now it's not even useful (30 min wait between refills for infrastructure to cool down). While that can be improved everything else can't. It costs $50 in materials for a 40-80amp 240V install. It costs less than a few hundred grand for superchargers. That's 10-20x cheaper than liquid hydrogen. You can't even refill at home like you can with a BEV. Seriously what is Toyota thinking??? They just need to admit defeat that they went down the wrong path and switch gears to BEV like BMW and Volkswagon and Chevy are doing. If they don't, they will bankrupt themselves on this as by the time they come around nobody will be buying a single Toyota anymore when 300-400 mile range BEVs are down to $20-$30k. Somebody needs to give Toyota a serious smack down wake up call. They seem to be living in their little bubble world ignorant of reality.

I think what you're seeing is Toyota's belief that neither technology is practical or potentially profitable right now.

Given that, the decision to go to hydrogen makes some sense. CARB rules favor hydrogen for credits, and if all they are doing is building a compliance car to avoid CARB penalties, they can probably get more credits per dollar spent building an FCV than a BEV right now.

I don't agree with them that EVs are a losing game, but if you accept that assumption, under current CARB rules their decision makes sense I think.

(As you can probably guess, I think the current CARB rules encouraging hydrogen are foolish - but that's what the industry has to live to.)
Walter