Tracking short interest

[uselesslogin]

That is an awesome idea. If you have a server you could have the script write directly to a web page then just share the link.

If you don't want to set it up on a web server I would be willing to run it on my server and host a page so it's automated. You would need to write the script though.

OK so here is the chart of the data I have so far. I'll have that updated automatically until it gets big enough that we might want to do a monthly and yearly chart or something like that.

TSLA Available Shares

 

[sundaymorning]

Does anyone else love that the State Of Michigan owns 623,321 shares and added shares during this period.....while the state bans Tesla from selling there? Do what I say, not what I do.

After going through a period of near economic collapse in Detroit, they're learning to hedge their position and clearly shows conflicted interest in staying loyal to the ICE manufactures of old vs. investing in the new kid on the block who has a pair of nicer shoes, shinier whistle & safer bells. Why not play both sides?

 

[uselesslogin]

Also short interest for the last report was 23,338,006 which represents the shares held short at market close on Feb. 10th. This is a decline of 1 million shares since the previous report. I'll be interested to see if there are more shorts after the earnings call and ultimately if the IB shares available or fee rate is correlated in any way.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Even more interesting is the State of Michigan increased its position in Tesla by almost 50% (290,000 shares) since the last reporting. Also, Michigan owns 10x more stock in Tesla Motors than GM.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Even more interesting is the State of Michigan increased its position in Tesla by almost 50% (290,000 shares) since the last reporting. Also, Michigan owns 10x more stock in Tesla Motors than GM.

Good portfolio diversification. Michigan does well from employment and taxes should GM succeeds, and from portfolio gains should Tesla succeed.

 

[uselesslogin]

No shares to short at IB once again.
TSLA Available Shares

 

[neroden]

Come on, won't the shorts get more desperate please... I signed up last year for "securities lending fully paid" to lend out my shares to short-sellers at interest, but I haven't actually gotten to do so yet... :wink:

 

[uselesslogin]

So no chart but I can say that that the fee rate went from around 0.45 to around 0.75 over the last month. This seems to correlate with the increase in reported short interest and it seems to be up a little from the date the last report is based on so if this data is helpful I would expect to see the next report to show a higher short interest than the most recent one.

 

[uselesslogin]

Just watching interactive brokers there were no shares to short today. A few just came in and the fee rate is 1.2%. This has been steadily rising. It was 1.12% on Thursday. It doesn't seem like shorts are covering at least from this data point.

 

[InTheShadows]

Just watching interactive brokers there were no shares to short today. A few just came in and the fee rate is 1.2%. This has been steadily rising. It was 1.12% on Thursday. It doesn't seem like shorts are covering at least from this data point.

Interesting, so it's plausible that what we saw today wasn't squeeze related at all and no significant covering took place?

 

[jhm]

Just watching interactive brokers there were no shares to short today. A few just came in and the fee rate is 1.2%. This has been steadily rising. It was 1.12% on Thursday. It doesn't seem like shorts are covering at least from this data point.

They may not be covering yet, but it is becoming more costly to play the game. And the cost will be passed along to put buyers. This agrees with what I saw anecdotally that IV for puts are starting to become higher than for calls. Many of those shorting shares may actually just be hedging puts. Hedged shorts won't cover until put holders sell at a loss, and they feel immune from a short squeeze since puts have limited loss potential.

 

[ZenMan]

They may not be covering yet, but it is becoming more costly to play the game. And the cost will be passed along to put buyers. This agrees with what I saw anecdotally that IV for puts are starting to become higher than for calls. Many of those shorting shares may actually just be hedging puts. Hedged shorts won't cover until put holders sell at a loss, and they feel immune from a short squeeze since puts have limited loss potential.

1.25% Rate this morning. 139K shares available.

 

[ZenMan]

Rate increased 1.38%. 250K shares available for shorting.

 

[InTheShadows]

How does the rate go up and the available shares go up at the same time? I would think it would be an inverse relationship.

 

[ZenMan]

How does the rate go up and the available shares go up at the same time? I would think it would be an inverse relationship.

I'd agree with your hypothesis, I'm only reporting what IB shows me on my trading screen.

 

[Wenche]

I'd agree with your hypothesis, I'm only reporting what IB shows me on my trading screen.

There has been millions of shares available in longer periodes, so I guess 100k to 500k are considered as low volums.

 

[uselesslogin]

How does the rate go up and the available shares go up at the same time? I would think it would be an inverse relationship.

I don't know if the number of available shares mean much once it is under 500,000. They raise the fee rate so they can increase the supply. I would bet the thing to track is the fee rate at least until it gets back down to parity with most other stocks.

 

[uselesslogin]

OK, I added a quick and dirty fee rate chart since I had been collecting the data:
TSLA Available Shares

So this chart shows a 0.625% fee rate on the last reported trading day in short interest. That is for trades on 3/10 which settled on 3/13. The next short report is due out after the close tomorrow. It will represent positions as of 3/26 which settled on 3/31. The fee rate on 3/26 was 0.75%. So this next report I would expect higher short interest. The next report after tomorrow's will represent tomorrows position so unless we see a dramatic fall in the fee rate I would expect that one to be even higher. I really don't think we can predict the magnitude of the increase from the fee rate, however. It could be very small as I can't imagine a 1.375% fee rate would attract that many new lenders. The biggest thing I think we can predict from this is that short interest is not decreasing.

 

[dha]

OK, I added a quick and dirty fee rate chart since I had been collecting the data:
TSLA Available Shares

So this chart shows a 0.625% fee rate on the last reported trading day in short interest. That is for trades on 3/10 which settled on 3/13. The next short report is due out after the close tomorrow. It will represent positions as of 3/26 which settled on 3/31. The fee rate on 3/26 was 0.75%. So this next report I would expect higher short interest. The next report after tomorrow's will represent tomorrows position so unless we see a dramatic fall in the fee rate I would expect that one to be even higher. I really don't think we can predict the magnitude of the increase from the fee rate, however. It could be very small as I can't imagine a 1.375% fee rate would attract that many new lenders. The biggest thing I think we can predict from this is that short interest is not decreasing.

This is really excellent information, than you for this. I'm guessing the only way to access this data is to be an IB client, right?

 

[ZenMan]

Shares sold short increased by 1.2million from mid March to end of month. Wonder how many shares covered on April 6th? Fairly low volume the last few days. Can't be too much covering going on. One out of every 5 shares has been borrowed and sold short. Waiting for the real squeeze to begin.

Settlement Date	Short Interest	Avg Daily Share Volume	Days To Cover
3/31/2015	26,081,089	5,661,343	4.606873
3/13/2015	24,849,688	5,504,050	4.514801
2/27/2015	23,285,697	5,242,976	4.441313
2/13/2015	23,338,006	5,629,716	4.145503
1/30/2015	24,573,248	3,569,463	6.884298
1/15/2015	25,382,566	5,466,714	4.643112