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This is about a 6% increase in the number of shares reported short two weeks prior...this is good news to me whenever short interest has gone up in TSLA. It just means more shorts have to unwind their short position at some point I the future.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
Is anyone else having trouble with Short analytics? Whenever I go there recently it says it's temp down and won't load.
TSLA short interest up almost another 1mm shares per NASDAQ, Merry Christmas!
Yes, this is very good news, gets us closer to a short squeeze that will eventually happen again the more people we have shorting TSLA
The last time Tesla had 25+ million shares sold short was throughout May. In May, the stock was also hanging in and around the $200 area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also showed Tesla to be oversold in May, and it bottomed at 27.87. Today, the RSI hit 26.54, so about the same level. The 200 day moving average and the 50 day moving average are touching for the first time since December of 2012. If tomorrow is an up day, it will be a REALLY bullish sign because that means multiple things:
A) The stock found support at $200
B) The stock will form a higher low from the previous low of ~$190
C) The stock has a rebounding RSI, which parallels the bounce in May as shorts began to cover and send the stock slowly up.
D) The bulls do not want to let the 50 and 200 day moving averages cross, which would make a bearish sign.
E) If it is up tomorrow, it will probably be a reaction to today's disclosure of short interest, indicating that the market thinks the short interest is too high.
Cross your fingers for an up day tomorrow.
A) The stock found support at $200
B) The stock will form a higher low from the previous low of ~$190
C) The stock has a rebounding RSI, which parallels the bounce in May as shorts began to cover and send the stock slowly up.
D) The bulls do not want to let the 50 and 200 day moving averages cross, which would make a bearish sign.
E) If it is up tomorrow, it will probably be a reaction to today's disclosure of short interest, indicating that the market thinks the short interest is too high.
Cross your fingers for an up day tomorrow.
chickensevil
Active Member
Been a while since I posted an updated chart. Thought I would throw one out there since Short Interest is on the rise.
The interesting thing here is that while the Short interest is slowly going back up, it appears that they are mostly just keeping the overall cost to play at a steady value (The red line). Ever since 4/30/2014 the cost of the short's to continue to play the game has remained pretty flat... all things considering. With an average cost of $5.4BN (a low of $4.6BN on 5/15 and a high of $6.2BN on 9/15) A lot of the variance in the short value is because of the fluctuating share price (the high cost coincided with the high point of the share price and the low point was at the lowest share price) But as you can see from the line it seems like as the price goes down they pile on piece by piece and as the price goes up they slowly cut back, all to maintain this roughly $5.5BN bet against TSLA. I am sure some of the other bits in there is white noise since you have random investors piling in and out at the same time. But I am willing to stake that the majority of this cash that is floating this counter bet against TSLA is by only a handful of organizations.
Call me crazy... but that is what I am seeing in the data. If this is true... the only way you are going to get a pain point on this, is if the stock moves up VERY quickly. I am talking 10$ swings every day for like a week (so like between today and next Tuesday we hit 250). Otherwise whoever is controlling the vast amounts of shorted shares is likely to just rebalance their position maintaining a similar amount of money staked against the market. With days to cover sitting between 3 and 6 they are constantly rolling their positions anyway... which is why I am suggesting that to get a proper squeeze, the stock would have to move VERY quickly... Anything slower and they have plenty of time to flip out their position without causing a lot of drama to the price.
The interesting thing here is that while the Short interest is slowly going back up, it appears that they are mostly just keeping the overall cost to play at a steady value (The red line). Ever since 4/30/2014 the cost of the short's to continue to play the game has remained pretty flat... all things considering. With an average cost of $5.4BN (a low of $4.6BN on 5/15 and a high of $6.2BN on 9/15) A lot of the variance in the short value is because of the fluctuating share price (the high cost coincided with the high point of the share price and the low point was at the lowest share price) But as you can see from the line it seems like as the price goes down they pile on piece by piece and as the price goes up they slowly cut back, all to maintain this roughly $5.5BN bet against TSLA. I am sure some of the other bits in there is white noise since you have random investors piling in and out at the same time. But I am willing to stake that the majority of this cash that is floating this counter bet against TSLA is by only a handful of organizations.
Call me crazy... but that is what I am seeing in the data. If this is true... the only way you are going to get a pain point on this, is if the stock moves up VERY quickly. I am talking 10$ swings every day for like a week (so like between today and next Tuesday we hit 250). Otherwise whoever is controlling the vast amounts of shorted shares is likely to just rebalance their position maintaining a similar amount of money staked against the market. With days to cover sitting between 3 and 6 they are constantly rolling their positions anyway... which is why I am suggesting that to get a proper squeeze, the stock would have to move VERY quickly... Anything slower and they have plenty of time to flip out their position without causing a lot of drama to the price.
Am I doing this right?
View Shortable Stocks
I don't see TSLA on the list as shortable. Could the short interest have shot up? We won't get actual post-earnings short interest reported until 3/10.
View Shortable Stocks
I don't see TSLA on the list as shortable. Could the short interest have shot up? We won't get actual post-earnings short interest reported until 3/10.
This is the link I use to follow TSLA short interest. It is down slightly this reporting period: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest
Right but we won't see post-ER short interest until 3/10 at that link so I was trying to get an earlier glimpse.
Interestingly enough Interactive Brokers has a short-able securities list which is not too hard to get. I see today there are 85,000 shares available to short for TSLA. I would love to incorporate more brokers but it might be interesting to track anyway between the more official NASDAQ updates or even just interesting to look at daily plots. I put in a script that will get the number daily and will post a few charts here once I have some data stored.
InTheShadows
Active Member
That is an awesome idea. If you have a server you could have the script write directly to a web page then just share the link.
If you don't want to set it up on a web server I would be willing to run it on my server and host a page so it's automated. You would need to write the script though.
Wow, no shares available at IB as of now. 90K this morning. The lending rate hasn't gone up yet. If this is for real, then the rate should go up tomorrow. Otherwise could be just a temporary TSLA shortage at IB.
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For reference, IB had 3.5M TSLA shares available on 10/28/2014. (I have the USA.txt list from that date). I'll try to post what happens to the lending rate at IB to keep everyone in this thread in the loop.
If you have an account at IB you can get this information by logging into Account Managment->Support->Tools->Stock Short Availability.
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For reference, IB had 3.5M TSLA shares available on 10/28/2014. (I have the USA.txt list from that date). I'll try to post what happens to the lending rate at IB to keep everyone in this thread in the loop.
If you have an account at IB you can get this information by logging into Account Managment->Support->Tools->Stock Short Availability.
OK, I can actually track the fee rate as well. It looks like 0.4268%. Is that annual?
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Hah, didn't think of that. I could easily set a table up but will try to plug the value into rrdtool as well for dynamically generated graphs.That is an awesome idea. If you have a server you could have the script write directly to a web page then just share the link.
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Hmm, yeah, exactly why I want to do scripted tracking of this it will be interesting to see daily, weekly, and monthly changes.
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