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Gerardf
Active Member
Yes, great data point showing that part of the run-up from the 170s to 200+ was covering by a net 2mm shorts.
A lot has changed in the past couple weeks as we likely had some more net short covering to get to 230s and then some new shorts enter in the past few days. Therefore I will be very interested to see the next short report as well... I'm hoping it will be around the same at 32mm share shorted and will be ecstatic if it went back up to 34mm+
Also this data point I think shows that this MarkIt source people quote on here and even in some news articles occasionally is inaccurate at best for TSLA shares and should not be counted on as a reliable
indicator.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Figures as of March 31st will be announced next Monday the 11th after market close. It's on the NASDAQ website.
Yes, looking forward to it. It is very important to note that those short interest figures will be as of end of trading Monday March 28th (3 business days prior to March 31st)
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Yes I am sure...if someone shorts the stock for example today, their PnL will change based on the price starting now but they will not start paying the 'hard-to-borrow' cost to short the stock until after the stock has 'settled' int heir account 3 business days later
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Good question
The "Due Date" column is the date that all of the brokers are required to have their their total clients' short position stat of each stock into NASDAQ so that NASDAQ would then have the time between this "Due Date" and "Dissemination Date" to put together all of the brokers' stats for the publication/dissemination.
The "Due Date" column is the date that all of the brokers are required to have their their total clients' short position stat of each stock into NASDAQ so that NASDAQ would then have the time between this "Due Date" and "Dissemination Date" to put together all of the brokers' stats for the publication/dissemination.
I know MarkIt is wrong because I have cross checked it, yes. And I have spoken to some industry experts on stock lending who also have told me how they believe MarkIt works, they gather some data points (incomplete data points as it is just from a select few brokers for example) and then combine that with their own proprietary algos on trading volumes, price movement, etc. and come up with their stat.
I don't KNOW a squeeze is happening, I only KNOW a squeeze HAS HAPPENED once the Nasdaq data comes out. And I define "short squeeze" as some amount of net shorts covering while the share price has appreciated.
My gut instinct says that this has been happening slowly for the past several weeks and 70-80 points minus a small pockets of time in between where net shorts increase temporarily from a ridiculous Andrew Left research note or some other no name short research report. However, I am curious to what the net short position decrease has been over the past 4-5 weeks so I can better gage how much further we could potentially run up.
Gerardf
Active Member
I feel what we have seen is shorts covering and new shorts replacing them at the higher SP.
For me the best up-to-date datapoint to guess the trend is the updates some posters give here on the interest rates to loan the shares.
I hope we will see some of those updates covering the past 2 weeks. (I have no access to such information myself)
For me the best up-to-date datapoint to guess the trend is the updates some posters give here on the interest rates to loan the shares.
I hope we will see some of those updates covering the past 2 weeks. (I have no access to such information myself)
We will have to wait and see until the NASDAQ numbers come out, that is the ONLY factual proof.
Your comment above should be "here is more speculation to what i was saying", proof will be in the pudding of the facts.
I would be happy to be wrong, as I would love nothing more than for the short interest to remain as high as possible while the stock runs up but until the facts are shown, we don't know, we can only speculate.
My point with you is that when people are speculating that this could be a short squeeze, please don't strongly dismiss their speculation as erroneous with the "MarkIt" or "S3 Partners" speculative proprietary data as if they are factual/conclusive data points on this not being a short squeeze. It could very well be a short squeeze occurring or could very well not be...
Let's all just agree that we will only know the truth when the NASDAQ short interest figures get published retrospectively and that everything else we suggest without that NASDAQ data is really just speculation (some from paid sources like "MarkIt" and "S3" who claim to have better real-time indications but can't guarantee it in any way, especially in trading anomaly situations like an actual 'short squeeze').
You missed the point completely and are arguing for the sake of arguing.
What's the point of knowing 3 week old information??
The exercise here is to find out what's going on with reasonable accuracy, if not perfect accuracy, so we know what to do.
When May 2013 squeeze happened, the short-interest went down in tandem with the spike. And the end of SI downturn was a great indicator of a top and thus an exit for the bulls. All based on markit data. Speculation based on some amount of data is vastly better than speculation based on no data and "gut feeling".
People incorrectly associating every move up, with a short interest decrease based on "gut feel" is plain wrong and dumb. Waiting for exchange data is pointless as the ship has sailed long past. So my advise to people who don't access to any data is to not speculate through "gut feeling".
Most importantly the point of my post was to show how shorts actually work. They don't exit on merely stock going up. They exit (or forced to exit) when price spikes dramatically. There is a big difference between these two. And it is worth learning that.
My only response is to read my last post again and we can continue to agree to disagree and leave it at that.
You may have the last word if you'd like
I found out that these interest rates are adjusted "by hand" by particular people, so they are going to have a certain amount of lag time. If shares become hard to borrow, expect a week's delay before the interest rates go up to attract more lenders.
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