TSLA Investor Discussions

[Citizen-T]

Agreed. There would certain be a good bit of cost to tool the factory and add workers.

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[agileone]

What: Tesla Motors, Inc. Second Quarter 2012 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call
When: July 25, 2012
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Daylight Time / 5:30pm Eastern Daylight Time

 

[Steph]

So, don't expect to ramp up to that theoretical and magical max of 500k cars produced per year without a serious capital investment from Tesla; it certainly isn't a freebie to just throw into equations without consideration on how one goes from 20k per year to 500k per year.

Head of manufacturing, Mr Passin said they can go as much as 100k cars/year without stretching the current setup.

Please use facts, not guesses. (look whos talking!)

 

[Steph]

What: Tesla Motors, Inc. Second Quarter 2012 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call
When: July 25, 2012
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Daylight Time / 5:30pm Eastern Daylight Time

That is early! And just before first real deliveries... It promises to be very entertaining

And that day, we should also get short numbers for 7/15.

 

[DrDave]

That is early! And just before first real deliveries... It promises to be very entertaining

And that day, we should also get short numbers for 7/15.

What do you mean by first real deliveries? You mean the next 10 founders deliveries will be announced?

 

[Steph]

What do you mean by first real deliveries? You mean the next 10 founders deliveries will be announced?

No, SSL reservation holder #4 got a delivery date for week of 7/29. I don't know how many others will get their car that week but it will be at least four.

 

[ckessel]

And just before first real deliveries...

Ahem. Please use facts, not guesses. All delivery dates are tentative at best.

 

[Steph]

Ahem. Please use facts, not guesses. All delivery dates are tentative at best.

Here is the fact: Latest date

See Larry Chanin's post.

I'don't know for sure if it's true, I don't know any of these people, but it's seems credible enough to take it as a fact unless anyone says otherwise and so far, no one said it's wasn't true.

 

[ckessel]

Here is the fact: Latest date

See Larry Chanin's post.

I'don't know for sure if it's true, I don't know any of these people, but it's seems credible enough to take it as a fact unless anyone says otherwise and so far, no one said it's wasn't true.

Facts are things that are provably true. I'll grant you as fact that we have rumor and speculation of deliveries that week, that's it.

 

[Steph]

Facts are things that are provably true. I'll grant you as fact that we have rumor and speculation of deliveries that week, that's it.

Fact is, our conversation may not even exist, you or me are possibly in a secondary state, a different dimension.

Do I even exist? Are you sure? I'm not.

 

[AnOutsider]

Fact is, our conversation may not even exist, you or me are possibly in a secondary state, a different dimension.

Do I even exist? Are you sure? I'm not.

You're stepping dangerously close to the steph/existence zone

 

[Larry Chanin]

Facts are things that are provably true. I'll grant you as fact that we have rumor and speculation of deliveries that week, that's it.

Everyone is of course free to believe what ever they wish, but in general I tend to believe fellow forum members when they are quoting Tesla communications.

1. Are you available to take delivery from 7/29/12 through 8/4/12? Do you have any vacation or travel planned during this time? Whatever your schedule, we are happy to accommodate and set a delivery date convenient for you. (Note: The Delivery Team will contact you a little over a week in advance to set the specific date and time)

So in this case I believe that back on July 6th Tesla quoted delivery the week of July 29 through August 4 for Special Signature reservation #4. Now that almost two weeks have passed, it remains to be seen whether that delivery estimate will still hold up.

What I take away from this is we can be fairly sure that non-Foundation Series Signatures won't be delivered any sooner than the above date range.

Larry

 

[Norbert]

At least the Q&A session (if not the letter) coming Wednesday (so before the week of July 29th) is likely to give us information about deliveries etc.

So just 6 days until we know much more... I'm wondering whether they pulled the date for Q2 results ahead, so they can prevent false rumors and premature conclusions.

 

[Discoducky]

At least the Q&A session (if not the letter) coming Wednesday (so before the week of July 29th) is likely to give us information about deliveries etc.

So just 6 days until we know much more... I'm wondering whether they pulled the date for Q2 results ahead, so they can prevent false rumors and premature conclusions.

I was wondering the same thing as it was tentatively scheduled for the 29th and then the 30th according to Yahoo Finance (not sure how they arrive at that date; maybe it's a total guess).

Non-founder deliveries will always speak louder than words as it will prove the dream through Elon's eyes. And the coffers will start to fill.

 

[brianman]

And the coffers will start to fill.

Not something you hear every day: An old word like "coffers" attributed to an electric car company.

 

[smorgasbord]

In order for him to be anywhere near correct, Tesla would have to be showing Q2 losses of >$150 million. Even with all the capital investments in Q1 the net loss was <$90m.

In reading through some of his comments (they're in a few threads, but you can catch them all via: http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-petersen/comments it appears he thinks that the capital investments are not included in the about $70M losses Tesla reported, because they're taken as long term depreciation:

Property, plant and equipment purchases do not flow through the income statement. The cash outlays go directly to the fixed assets portion of the balance sheet and the loan advances go directly to the long-term liabilities section of the balance sheet. They don't effect working capital or equity.

The costs of installing and testing factory equipment are capitalized as part of the cost of that equipment. Property, plant and equipment costs are ultimately charged against income statement over time in the form of depreciation.

So, JP's saying there's $68m income losses and another $70m (all approximate) in capital expenses. That gets close to your $150million/quarter figure.

BTW, NigelM, I'm not challenging you at all. Given what JP says about other matters, I wouldn't be surprised to see him twisting numbers and lying. I wonder how it's going to go for him when he's proven wrong in a few weeks?

 

[Norbert]

In reading through some of his comments (they're in a few threads, but you can catch them all via: http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-petersen/comments it appears he thinks that the capital investments are not included in the about $70M losses Tesla reported, because they're taken as long term depreciation:

I haven't looked at this for some time, and don't know how to read those financial statements properly, but IIRC the "Property, plant and equipment purchases" have been part of the R&D costs in recent statements, and will move into other categories with start of production.

 

[smorgasbord]

... it appears he thinks that the capital investments are not included in the about $70M losses Tesla reported, because they're taken as long term depreciation

And Tesla directly addressed this in its Q3 2011 Shareholder letter:

Since pre-production costs are expensed under GAAP, the development activities on the Model S and Model X drive our net losses

Hence, it looks like Petersen was counting the capital expense as an addition to the operating expense when, in fact, it's already included.

Accounting makes my brain hurt. Time for a beer.

 

[Steph]

My last comment of the week, got some stuff to do...

Allright. Manipulation is the word of the week. You can also describe it as gap creation.

Pre-market action was pretty revealing this morning:

First, a guy sell at ~2% below closing, then a real transaction came in at market value. A little while after that, the sell another bit to bring it back down, it then stayed down.

That's a little trick to make all stop loss kick-in at open. They did that a few times this week, it will work for a while but at some point market is always right...

On the technical side, the chart is burning! It's says warning in BIG BOLD letters. We now have four (yes 4!) gaps to fill. The greatest is the one at $40.

A runaway gap may happen according to my crazy little chart. Hold on to your hats, technicals are never wrong. Right Citizen-T?

Good weekend to all! Next week will be mind blowing.

(Runaway gap: Gaps and Gap Analysis - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com)

 

[Citizen-T]

technicals are never wrong. Right Citizen-T?

As I said a few pages back, all they can do is tell you the probability that something will happen relative to the other option. They do seem to say we are going higher, but looks like the stock wants to test buyers again here at these levels first.

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