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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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Am I Imagining it or is the reservation rate now about 50-55 per day? That would imply 18250 - 20075 cars per year. With 25 new stores opening and European reservations beginning soon, imagine what happens if this jumps to 55 per day on average in November, 60 per day in December, 65 per day in January, 70 per day in February, and 75 per day by March? That would convert to 1650+ 1860 +2015 + 2170 + 2321 = 10,016 by March 31st (Minus 10% cancellations or 1001 reservations) + The current 13200 gross reservations (Accounting for current cancellations) = 9015+ 13200 = 22,215 by March 31st. Assuming reservations continue at an average rate of 70 per day into December 31st, we get 22,215+ 19530 = 41745 by December 31st. Imagine what happens if Reservations begin coming in at around 100 per day starting around April-May? Tesla has manufacturing capacity of 500k cars. 100 per day would equal 36500 per year. Reservation growth rate is about 30% year quarter, with 0 advertising. If Tesla wins the MotorTrend car of the year award, and once the supercharger network is up and running, 100 per day may be too low. Furthermore, we can reasonably expect that the Model X will begin getting reservations at a rate of around 55 per day, once pricing is available and all things are finalized.
In short, by 2014, 150 cars per day on average is possible (And seems realistic assuming a minimum of 30% Quarter over Quarter growth). 150 x 365 = 54,750 cars per year. (54,750 x $65,000) x 25% margins = 889687500 - 300million Operating Expenses = 580million in profit x PE of 30 =17billion 400million. This assumes the average price is 65k, which may be incorrect. Am I missing something? This doesn't even account for the Gen 3. Furthermore, what company growing earnings at 30% Quarterly only gets a PE of 30?
In short, by 2014, 150 cars per day on average is possible (And seems realistic assuming a minimum of 30% Quarter over Quarter growth). 150 x 365 = 54,750 cars per year. (54,750 x $65,000) x 25% margins = 889687500 - 300million Operating Expenses = 580million in profit x PE of 30 =17billion 400million. This assumes the average price is 65k, which may be incorrect. Am I missing something? This doesn't even account for the Gen 3. Furthermore, what company growing earnings at 30% Quarterly only gets a PE of 30?
and what about the people who are just waiting for Tesla to show that the cars last and that Tesla will still be around in a few years then +++ to the #s
If Tesla even comes near these figures, they will be under severe pressure to speed up production. Back in 2011 Elon liked to state that "2012 production is sold out" - when that was figured to be 5000 cars. If reservations exceed the sum of cars produced in 2012 and planned for 2013 before year end, the wait will discourage some buyers. But that's a nice problem to have.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Surely it would be much easier for Tesla to duplicate the current production line, than it was to build it from scratch. And easier than it will be to build a new Gen III mass production line. In such a scenario, the question then is whether this would help financing a Gen III sooner, or take away resources from that.
Zzzz...
Member
Elon said that they could produce 30,000 Model S if they add another shift.
And another thing he said, he expected production rate to be higher then 400 a week at the end of the year.
Both statements were made quite some time ago though.
And another thing he said, he expected production rate to be higher then 400 a week at the end of the year.
Both statements were made quite some time ago though.
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They are already running 2 shifts and 7 days a week and got 200 or so vehicles for the first time last week (which gave him his at 10K/year figure from the Q3 report), it will take a lot of fine-tuning in the plant to make it to 400/week by the end of the year. I would also like to hear the numbers from this week - was that 200 a spike just in time for the earnings report, or can it consistently be met. If it is consistent, can it be done running a regular work week (say M-F, 10-hour days). I have to think the OT and energy costs are factoring in to not being at the 25% margin target Elon wants.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Seems I made the right moves before the election. Sold down most of my risk assets to minimum positions except for TSLA.
Market is not pleased with the results of the election as Dems and Republicans still need to work together on taxes and the fiscal cliff. Market is expecting things to get rough for a while here, and I'm inclined to agree.
Market is not pleased with the results of the election as Dems and Republicans still need to work together on taxes and the fiscal cliff. Market is expecting things to get rough for a while here, and I'm inclined to agree.
smorgasbord
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Zzzz...
Member
Technically he was speaking about now, rate as of November. While 2900/90 represents Jul-Aug-Sep average.
Not sure rate got that big of increase, but there was a recent press in EU and North America too, plus more stores, more cars on road etc...
I wanna see $32+
We are so close...
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Just for fun, I figured out that if TSLA hits 110 I can buy my car purely on profit (that's even roughly accounting for fed/state tax hit).I wanna see $32+
drinker of drinkerofkoolaid, I think you've been reading my mind. the past couple days, I've been imagining annual sales of 80,000 for S and X in three or four years, (prior to Gen3 launch)... but I've also wondered if Tesla would have the capacity or the interest to do this given they want to get to Gen3.
I found these sales figures very promising... in my rough calculations 80M S/X sales would be about $4 a share in earnings. not only would the stock have a nice valuation, it would allow Elon to pursue Gen3 with the same uncompromising standards as the model S launch... i.e. if 2017 was the year they could deliver the $30M car consistant with Model S standards he wouldn't have to compromise the car to get it out in 2015 to avoid cash drying up for lack of sustained interest in Model S/X (not that I'd be opposed to a 2015 launch!) I think all these S/X out there would only build up anticipation for Gen3 much as ipod built anticipation for iphone (of course not on that massive scale).
I think the prospect of vastly higher production is an important one. I've read comments here that two shifts on the line could get to 40M. I'm pretty ignorant re production... wondering if some of that capacity is meant to convert over to X production? also wondering how challenging it would be to get a second line going... as someone pointed out here, they might not want to divert resources and attention from Gen3 development... I just wonder if a second line that could get S/X up to 80M would be a no brainer and a go for Tesla if the demand is clear. I've been searching TMC and the web in general re potential large S/X production increase, have not seen much. what do you all think?
(fwiw, I've become encouraged of the prospect of far greater demand, since the Automobile Car of the Year Award, various encouraging points in conference call re demand (EU being only about 15% of reservations at this point, repeated statements that they expect cancellation rate to be far lower as wait time for reservation holders goes from years to under six months, among other things), and the cumulative impact of the very high satisfaction reported by posters on TMC.)
Pretty sure you mean K rather than M. 40M cars/year would be significantly larger
As I understand it, the eventual limitation is equipment. They bought presses on the cheap from Saturn, but to expand to multiple lines at volume they'd need to buy and install more such ultra heavy equipment. Plus more robots for welding, painting, etc.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Pretty sure you mean K rather than M. 40M cars/year would be significantly larger
Could be Roman Numeral M.
I'm thinking of decreasing my position in Tesla in the coming weeks to pay off the last of my student loans (yay). What are peoples opinion of a good number to sell off at, with the intent of buying again early next year (January)? I bought in at around 27.50. Do you see the stock raising much more than $35 with how crazy things are?
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Citizen-T
Active Member
This is a very complicated question and requires first asking whether or not paying off your student loans is a good use of your capital.
Ask yourself, "what are the interest rates like on my student loans?" Then consider that that interest is tax deductible, so reduce the number appropriately. Then consider whether or not you would expect to make at least that percentage return each year in TSLA.
Oh, and don't forget to factor in the tax hit you will take when you sell your shares.
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Jhall what Citizen-T layed out makes a world of sense.
doesn't this seem like Tesla has past a critical point here in it's viability Jhall? make your own judgement, but I've bought past couple days and emailed a couple friends suggesting they buy.
Citizen-T, thanks for saving me from sounding petty... my old job we used M for thousand :wink:
doesn't this seem like Tesla has past a critical point here in it's viability Jhall? make your own judgement, but I've bought past couple days and emailed a couple friends suggesting they buy.
Citizen-T, thanks for saving me from sounding petty... my old job we used M for thousand :wink:
Here is a random thought, now that Obama has been re-elected, he will likely make due on his promise to raise the tax subsidy to 10k per car. This is only necessary to get the ball rolling. Once people become comfortable with charging their cars like they charge their phones, selling tons will become easy as pie.
Once the Gen 3 comes along, a Tesla with 200miles per charge, would effectively be a free performance level car (Who doesn't like a free lunch?). Most people spend $300-500 a month on Gas. This produces an annual spending range of $3600 - $6000 per year, in the USA. In Europe this number is probably more like $7,200 - $12,000. The average person owns a car for 8-10 years. This implies the average person spends between $28,800 and $60,000 on Gas for their cars. Assume electricity for those charging at home is about 10% of this or about $2800 - $6,000. This gives us a Savings of between $26,000 and $56,000 in the USA. In Europe, assuming electricity costs the same (I think it costs less) this gives us a range of $51,900 and $108,000. Even if the car costs 30k-45k (With good options), it is effectively a free car. I have a hard time believing this won't sell at least 200-300k per year. If Tesla can have their suppliers prepared for this (Now), they can have insane margins (In excess of 25%) and be selling 50-80k of the Model S and X per year and 200K-300k of the 3rd Gen by 2015. The car has fewer parts, and requires less labor to make. Furthermore, the workers are not union. Conceivably, they can source their parts from the USA, (With the exception of the battery pack that is supplied from Panasonic), and take advantage of huge tax benefits. Tesla will be employing 10-15k skilled workers to build their products, and will be making great money doing it. Tesla is American made, effectively a Free car, doesn't emit fumes that cause cancer and other diseases, is environmentally sustainable, and has Amazing performance and aesthetics. Why wouldn't anyone with a brain (That is in an area that can work with EV charging) buy this car? Not only is the car amazing, it will put thousands of dollars into peoples pockets that can be used to stimulate the economy. It's a triple win.
Once the Gen 3 comes along, a Tesla with 200miles per charge, would effectively be a free performance level car (Who doesn't like a free lunch?). Most people spend $300-500 a month on Gas. This produces an annual spending range of $3600 - $6000 per year, in the USA. In Europe this number is probably more like $7,200 - $12,000. The average person owns a car for 8-10 years. This implies the average person spends between $28,800 and $60,000 on Gas for their cars. Assume electricity for those charging at home is about 10% of this or about $2800 - $6,000. This gives us a Savings of between $26,000 and $56,000 in the USA. In Europe, assuming electricity costs the same (I think it costs less) this gives us a range of $51,900 and $108,000. Even if the car costs 30k-45k (With good options), it is effectively a free car. I have a hard time believing this won't sell at least 200-300k per year. If Tesla can have their suppliers prepared for this (Now), they can have insane margins (In excess of 25%) and be selling 50-80k of the Model S and X per year and 200K-300k of the 3rd Gen by 2015. The car has fewer parts, and requires less labor to make. Furthermore, the workers are not union. Conceivably, they can source their parts from the USA, (With the exception of the battery pack that is supplied from Panasonic), and take advantage of huge tax benefits. Tesla will be employing 10-15k skilled workers to build their products, and will be making great money doing it. Tesla is American made, effectively a Free car, doesn't emit fumes that cause cancer and other diseases, is environmentally sustainable, and has Amazing performance and aesthetics. Why wouldn't anyone with a brain (That is in an area that can work with EV charging) buy this car? Not only is the car amazing, it will put thousands of dollars into peoples pockets that can be used to stimulate the economy. It's a triple win.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I don't think this is likely in the least bit. Obama's immediate challenge is a fiscal cliff. The country, whether Democrat or Republican is extremely concerned about the deficit and wants spending reductions (they just can't agree on where to cut and whether or not to raise taxes as well).
I see no scenario in which it is politically feasible for Obama to raise the EV tax credit. At least not this year.
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