Yeah I'd be more than satisfied even with your 2025 target. Agree about Musk, although I think he will be disappointed if it takes that long. He hopes to be on Mars by that time! You have a good point though, Gen III in 3-4 years won't start at millions, like take some years to get there. I'll split e difference with you and predict by 2020 they'll be at millions per year! Either way, at that growth rate the PE of e stock value won't be anywhere near Ford, GM etc. putting the per share price somewhere in the multi hundred area. Appreciate your views....
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
- Start date
-
- Tags
- investment market TSLA
- Status
Norbert
TSLA will win
I'm not sure about the value of specific financial terms here (like P/E ratio).
It's pretty much a given that Tesla will re-invest most of the money it makes, in future products and growth.
I think the interesting number is: How much money will they be able to put on the side, in order to make these future-oriented investments.
If you subtract these investments as a negative, the bottom-line number will likely remain just a small positive value (or fluctuate around zero). I think.
It's pretty much a given that Tesla will re-invest most of the money it makes, in future products and growth.
I think the interesting number is: How much money will they be able to put on the side, in order to make these future-oriented investments.
If you subtract these investments as a negative, the bottom-line number will likely remain just a small positive value (or fluctuate around zero). I think.
Zzzz...
Member
2013 earnings are largely irrelevant and should not be applied to calculate price of shares based on P/E. Just like 2012 lack of earnings dose not make TSLA shares worthless.
What really relevant is year 2018. Or 2020. Will TM be able to pull 2 billion in earnings that year? If yes, then you can calculate price of shares in 5 years based on P/E 10. That is realistic scenario. Optimistic would be 4 billion earnings with P/E 20. Pessimistic would be half a billion earnings with P/E 3 or no earnings at all.
BTW, analysts are not sure if TM would be able to pull earnings for 2013. Some predict small ones, other foresee slightly negative numbers. But once again, whatever actual earnings will be in 2013, you could not derive share price from that. Just like you could not derive share price from negative earnings of 2012 based on P/E(nonexistent one). But losses in 2012/2013 would not mean that $38 or $50 TSLA price is not justified.
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
I think more than actual #s, the stock price will be driven momentum of sales and progress. If (stock) buyers think (car) buyers are going to embrace Tesla and buy their cars, it will drive the stock up.
Of course really bad #s would kill momentum, but I don't see them reporting anything that bad. But, we'll find out soon enough...
Of course really bad #s would kill momentum, but I don't see them reporting anything that bad. But, we'll find out soon enough...
For people who keep comparing TSLA's P/E to AMZN:
Amazon Q4 profits fall 45 percent.
I think it's very reasonable to expect a higher P/E for TSLA than an established automaker which really has very little room to expand and can't increase margins without being mauled by its competitors. However, any capital intensive manufacturing business cannot be reasonably compared to tech stocks, because the cost of production is so much more of the total revenue than in a software driven business where the marginal cost is minimal.
Amazon Q4 profits fall 45 percent.
I think it's very reasonable to expect a higher P/E for TSLA than an established automaker which really has very little room to expand and can't increase margins without being mauled by its competitors. However, any capital intensive manufacturing business cannot be reasonably compared to tech stocks, because the cost of production is so much more of the total revenue than in a software driven business where the marginal cost is minimal.
Investors might consider that Elon has a goal of changing the world's transportation. He and key like minded investors might be perfectly happy to keep re re re investing back into the company with little profit for decades.
It's a good point and generally true, and certainly true when looking at a software drive business;
but not so much when the technology disrupts in a way to alter the manufacturing capital itself.
Intel is an example. Certainly a capital intensive industry, but they used technology to drive that cost per u it way down and then leveraged it to become the standard used by the industry. Tesla may not achieve that level of success, but that's exactly what they are driving to become. Much of this because of the vision of Elon, to not only change the industry itself (even selling to his competitors as the standard), but his focus on actually changing the manufacturing capital structure, deploying manufacturing design technology within the product design cycle. A big Part of the 'gotcha' he's investing in changes how a car is manufactured and sold, producing misjudge nets by current industry investors about the level of capital required. Using today's technology , the Capital no longer represents the same Intensity to achieve scalable volumes. He's doing precisely the same with SpaceX. Brilliant really and a testament to Elon and the team he's building
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
This article mentions that the earnings will be reported in "the next few weeks"...
The Wall Street Journal
February 10, 2013 7:31pm ET
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323511804578296001971946098.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
The Wall Street Journal
February 10, 2013 7:31pm ET
Tesla Motors Approaches Crossroad
Output Figures for Battery-Powered Model S Are Expected to Shed Light on Car Maker's Viability
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323511804578296001971946098.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Norbert
TSLA will win
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
Norbert
TSLA will win
I tried again, this time I can see it. Might have gotten a new dynamic IP address in between, as I needed to reconnect.
- - - Updated - - -
It says the report will come in the next few weeks, but probably just to be sufficiently vague. I'm also hoping for tomorrow.
BTW, the article says Tesla needs to produce 400/week (which is about 20,000 per year) to break even. I haven't heard that number before, and I think it is actually 8,000 per year (in the context of Model S production), as Elon said in the last annual shareholder meeting. (Though it is not always clear what exactly the numbers refer to).
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
I'm either excited or worried about the Delivery buttons people are getting tonight.
My reservation #13850 made in November and finalized on the first day I could, 1/11/13, Delivery button received 1/28, has a delivery window of Feb 28-March 14th for my P85.
I saw someone else (hershey101) posted they got their (#18278) delivery button tonight. They Made their reservation on 1/14/13, Finalize button 2/4, Delivery button today 2/10, with a Delivery window of March 13-27.
So their window overlaps mine, even though we are almost 5000 reservations apart.
Does this mean there are a LOT of cancellations, or Tesla is pumping out cars at an enormous rate, or...??
My reservation #13850 made in November and finalized on the first day I could, 1/11/13, Delivery button received 1/28, has a delivery window of Feb 28-March 14th for my P85.
I saw someone else (hershey101) posted they got their (#18278) delivery button tonight. They Made their reservation on 1/14/13, Finalize button 2/4, Delivery button today 2/10, with a Delivery window of March 13-27.
So their window overlaps mine, even though we are almost 5000 reservations apart.
Does this mean there are a LOT of cancellations, or Tesla is pumping out cars at an enormous rate, or...??
Norbert
TSLA will win
Difficult to tell. Sometimes they end up with a specific configuration already in production, but for some reason not to be delivered to the person having ordered it. Then they go ahead in the list until they find an exact match. Just one possibility.
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
